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1.
The main purpose of this paper is to apply the singular spectrum analysis (SSA), based on the phase space, and the wavelet multiresolution analysis (WMA), based on the frequency space, to the weekly time series of global sea level anomaly (GSLA) derived from satellite altimetry data over 1993–2013, in order to assess its nonlinear trends and its seasonal signals. The SSA results show that the GSLA time series is mainly dominated by a nonlinear trend explaining 89.89 % of the total GSLA variability, followed by annual and semi-annual signals with an explained variance of 9.15 and 0.32 %, respectively. For the annual signal, both methods give similar results. Its amplitude is less than 14 mm with an average of about 11 mm, and its minimum and maximum occur in April and October, respectively. The calculation of sea level trend, by both methods, is direct without removing the seasonal signals from the original GSLA time series as the most commonly used in the literature. The global sea level trend obtained from the WMA is about 2.52 ± 0.01 mm/year which is in good agreement with 2.94 ± 0.05 mm/year estimated from the SSA. Furthermore, the SSA method is most suitable for seasonal adjustment, and the WMA method is more useful for providing the different rates of sea level rise. Indeed, the WMA reveals that the global sea level has risen with the rate of 3.43 ± 0.01 mm/year from January/1993 to January/1998, 0.66 ± 0.01 mm/year from February/1998 to May/2000, 5.71 ± 0.03 mm/year from June/2000 to October/2003, and 1.57 ± 0.01 mm/year since January/2004.  相似文献   

2.
Seawater intrusion is a major threat to the rapidly depleting groundwater resources in the coastal areas of India. Groundwater-based irrigation, significant industrial development and rapid urbanization are some of the key contributors exacerbating the stress on groundwater resources. Vulnerability to seawater intrusion in the Ramanathapuram district of Eastern India is assessed here utilizing the GALDIT method, for a period of 10 years (2001–2010). Results revealed a drastic increase in percent area coverage under moderate vulnerability, from 19.5 to 53.88 %, between the years 2001 and 2010. On the contrary, areas classified as highly vulnerable underwent minor changes over the span of the study. Vulnerability of the study area was also analyzed for the year 2050 considering an average global mean sea level rise of 3.1 mm/year. Results from the analysis for the year 2050 showed that, almost, the entire study area (~97 %) was classified under moderate vulnerability. As a remedial measure to this imminent threat, favorable zones for artificial recharge were delineated on the basis of overlay analysis with weightage values for important controlling factors. Subsequently, the quantity of artificial recharge required to inhibit the intrusion of seawater, at specified favorable zones were estimated to be 674.87, 599.18 and 1,450.66 m3/year.  相似文献   

3.
Using coupled terrestrial and coastal zone models, we investigated the impacts of deglaciation and anthropogenic inputs on the CO2–H2O–CaCO3 system in global coastal ocean waters from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 18,000 year BP) to the year 2100. With rising sea level and atmospheric CO2, the carbonate system of coastal ocean water changed significantly. We find that 6 × 1012 metric tons of carbon were emitted from the coastal ocean, growing due to the sea level rise, from the LGM to late preindustrial time (1700 AD) because of net heterotrophy and calcification processes. This carbon came to reside in the atmosphere and in the growing vegetation on land and in uptake of atmospheric CO2 through the weathering of rocks on land. It appears that carbonate accumulation, mainly, but not exclusively, in coral reefs from the LGM to late preindustrial time could account for about 24 ppmv of the 100 ppmv rise in atmospheric CO2, lending some support to the “coral reef hypothesis”. In addition, the global coastal ocean is now, or soon will be, a sink of atmospheric CO2. The temperature rise of 4–5°C since the LGM led to increased weathering rates of inorganic and organic materials on land and enhanced riverine fluxes of total C, N, and P to the coastal ocean of 68%, 108%, and 97%, respectively, from the LGM to late preindustrial time. During the Anthropocene, these trends have been exacerbated owing to rising atmospheric CO2, due to fossil fuel combustion and land-use practices, other human activities, and rising global temperatures. River fluxes of total reactive C, N, and P are projected to increase from late preindustrial time to the year 2100 by 150%, 380%, and 257%, respectively, modifying significantly the behavior of these element cycles in the coastal ocean, particularly in proximal environments. Despite the fact that the global shoal water carbonate mass has grown extensively since the LGM, the pHT (pH values on the total proton scale) of global coastal waters has decreased from ~8.35 to ~8.18 and the carbonate ion concentration declined by ~19% from the LGM to late preindustrial time. The latter represents a rate of decline of about 0.028 μmol CO3 2? per decade. In comparison, the decrease in coastal water pHT from the year 1900 to 2000 was about 8.18–8.08 and is projected to decrease further from about 8.08 to 7.85 between 2000 and 2100, according to the IS92a business-as-usual scenario of CO2 emissions. Over these 200 years, the carbonate ion concentration will fall by ~120 μmol kg?1 or 6 μmol kg?1 per decade. This decadal rate of decline of the carbonate ion concentration in the Anthropocene is 214 times the average rate of decline for the entire Holocene. Hence, when viewed against the millennial to several millennial timescale of geologic change in the coastal ocean marine carbon system, one can easily appreciate why ocean acidification is the “other CO2 problem”.  相似文献   

4.
Data for the Waimea Plains, New Zealand indicate that the lower confined groundwater aquifer is hydraulically homogeneous and that shallow groundwater levels inland are affected mostly by anthropogenic processes, while those near the coast are affected more by sea level variation. Analysis of long-term data for New Zealand indicates that sea level has increased continuously, but trends are not spatially uniform. Results from non-parametric trend analysis show that rising trends for groundwater levels are predominant in the shallow aquifer both inland on the Waimea Plains and, for recent years, near the coast, while decreasing trends are evident in the underlying confined aquifer near the coast. Groundwater level change in the shallow aquifer appears to be more affected by climate change than the lower confined aquifer. Correlation analysis indicated that groundwater levels are more affected by rainfall during the rainy season than the dry season and more influenced by rainfall inland than near the coast. Groundwater level declines in the lower confined aquifer near the coast, which has its major recharge area inland in the catchment, may be substantially affected by groundwater abstraction in inland areas as well as sea level variation, but there are little evidences of seawater intrusion. Meanwhile, groundwater recharge over the catchment area has great influence on rising groundwater levels in the shallow aquifer and its recharge is estimated to be 417.8 mm/year using chloride concentrations of precipitation and groundwater.  相似文献   

5.
The sea level change is a crucial indicator of our climate. The spatial sampling offered by satellite altimetry and its continuity during the past years are the major assets to provide an improved vision of the Mediterranean sea level changes. In this paper, an automatic signal extraction approach, based on Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), is utilized for analysis and seasonal adjustment of the Mediterranean Sea level series. This automatic approach enables us to overcome the difficulties of visual identification of trend constituents that sometimes we encounter when using the conventional SSA method. The results indicate that the Mediterranean mean sea level is dominated by several harmonic components. The annual signal is particularly strong and almost covers 73.62 % of the original sea level series variation whiles its amplitude is about 15 cm. The extracted trend also indicates that the Mediterranean main sea level has significantly been raised during the period 1993–2012 by 2.44?±?0.4 mm yr?1. As an important consequence, considering the current situation, if this trend continues, the Mediterranean Sea level will be raised about 22 cm by the end of this century, which makes a dramatic effect on several issues such as land, flora, fauna, and people activities established along the Mediterranean coastlines.  相似文献   

6.
Ozone trends in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere over the Indian region are investigated using three satellite data sets namely Halogen Occultation Experiment (1993–2005), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (1993–2005) II, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2005–2011). Estimated ozone trends using multi-variate regression analysis are compared with trends at two Indian ozonesonde stations (Delhi, 28°N, 77°E and Pune, 18°N, 73°E), and a 3-D Chemical Transport Model (CTM, SLIMCAT) for the 1993–2005 time period. Overall, all the observational data sets and model simulations indicate significant increasing trend in the upper troposphere (0–2.5 %/year). In the lower stratosphere, estimated trends are slightly positive up to 30 mb and are negative between 30 and 10 mb. Increasing trends in the upper troposphere is probably due to increasing trends in the tropospheric ozone precursor gases (e.g. CO, NO x , NMHCs). Here, we argue that these contrasting ozone-trend profiles might be partially responsible for insignificant long-term trends in the tropical total column ozone. On seasonal scale, positive trends are observed during all the seasons in the upper troposphere while structure of trend profile varies in lower stratosphere. Seasonal variations of ozone trends and its linkages with stratospheric intrusions and increasing trends in lightning flashes in the troposphere are also discussed.  相似文献   

7.
The sea levels along the semi-arid South Texas coast are noted to have risen by 3–5 mm/year over the last five decades. Data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) indicate that this trend will continue in the 21st century with projected sea level rise in the order of 1.8–5.9 mm/year due to the melting of glaciers and thermal ocean expansion. Furthermore, the temperature in South Texas is projected to increase by as much as 4 °C by the end of the 21st century creating a greater stress on scarce water resources of the region. Increased groundwater use hinterland due to urbanization as well as rising sea levels due to climate change impact the freshwater-saltwater interface in coastal aquifers and threaten the sustainability of coastal communities that primarily rely on groundwater resources. The primary goal of this study was to develop an integrated decision support framework to assist land and water planners in coastal communities to assess the impacts of climate change and urbanization. More specifically, the developed system was used to address whether coastal side (primarily controlled by climate change) or landward side processes (controlled by both climate change and urbanization) had a greater control on the saltwater intrusion phenomenon. The decision support system integrates a sharp-interface model with information from GCMs and observed data and couples them to statistical and information-theoretic uncertainty analysis techniques. The developed decision support system is applied to study saltwater intrusion characteristics at a small coastal community near Corpus Christi, TX. The intrusion characteristics under various plausible climate and urbanization scenarios were evaluated with consideration given to uncertainty and variability of hydrogeologic parameters. The results of the study indicate that low levels of climate change have a greater impact on the freshwater-saltwater interface when the level of urbanization is low. However, the rate of inward intrusion of the saltwater wedge is controlled more so by urbanization effects than climate change. On a local (near coast) scale, the freshwater-saltwater interface was affected by groundwater production locations more so than the volume produced by the community. On a regional-scale, the sea level rise at the coast was noted to have limited impact on saltwater intrusion which was primarily controlled by freshwater influx from the hinterlands towards the coast. These results indicate that coastal communities must work proactively with planners from the up-dip areas to ensure adequate freshwater flows to the coast. Field monitoring of this parameter is clearly warranted. The concordance analysis indicated that input parameter sensitivity did not change across modeled scenarios indicating that future data collection and groundwater monitoring efforts should not be hampered by noted divergences in projected climate and urbanization patterns.  相似文献   

8.
A statistical downscaling approach is applied to the output of five different global climate model simulations driven by twenty-first century future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. The contribution of sea-level pressure (SLP) and precipitation changes to regional future winter sea-level changes is estimated for four Baltic sea-level stations by establishing statistical relationships between sea level as predictand and large-scale climate fields as predictors. Using SLP as predictor for the central and eastern Baltic Sea level stations, three climate models lead to statistically significant twenty-first century future trends in the range of the order of 1–2 mm/year. Using precipitation as predictor for the stations in the southern Baltic coast all five models lead to statistically significant trends with a range of the order of 0.4 mm/year. These numbers are smaller, but of the order of magnitude as the predicted global sea-level rise.  相似文献   

9.
全球海平面变化研究新进展   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8  
综述了近10年来海平面变化研究的主要成果,分析了影响海平面变化的主要因素,探讨了海平面变化研究中存在的一些问题。结果表明：①近10年全球平均海平面上升幅度大约为2.5~3.84 mm/a,热膨胀是引起海平面上升的主因;②海平面变化具有时空分布差异——西太平洋和东印度洋地区上升最快,其值高出全球平均值的10倍以上;大西洋与太平洋30~40°N地区季节变化最明显;③将海平面季节高值时段与北半球热带气旋出现时间进行对比,发现每年8~10月份,在20~50°N的西北太平洋与北大西洋沿岸地区出现海平面最高值与热带气旋相叠加的全球危险海岸带,该地带包括中国大陆东部、日本沿海地区、美国东部海岸带、墨西哥湾地区和加勒比海地区。  相似文献   

10.
A long-term (1948–2010) shoreward energy history of upper tidal shorelines in lower Chesapeake Bay was developed using a simple calculation of kinetic energy from corresponding wind and tide data. These data were primarily used to determine the likelihood of shoreline energy increases coincident with local sea level rise. Total annual shoreward energy ranged from 620 kJ/m of shoreline in 1950 to 17,785 kJ/m of shoreline in 2009. No clear linear trends are apparent, but mean annual energy shows an increase from 2,732 kJ/m before 1982 to 6,414 kJ/m since then. This increase in mean energy was accompanied by more numerous spikes of comparatively higher annual energy. Shoreward energy delivered to lower Chesapeake Bay’s upper tidal shorelines was enabled by an increasing amount of time per year that tidal height exceeds mean high water, accompanied by increasing heights of tidal anomalies. An index termed the Hydrologic Burden was developed that incorporates the combination of time and tidal height that demonstrates this increasing trend. Although opportunities for greater shoreward energy increased as the Hydrologic Burden increased, and even though there is evidence that greater energy was delivered to the shorelines during the latter time series, energy per hour delivery was shown not to have increased, and may have decreased, due to a steady reduction in average wind speed in lower Chesapeake Bay since the mid-1980s. Energy delivery in lower Chesapeake Bay was primarily from the northeast, and energy delivery over the time series is shown to organize symmetrically around a point between the northeast and north–northeast directions. This is evidence of a self-organizational phenomenon that transcends changes in local wind and tide dynamics.  相似文献   

11.
Rainfall is one of the pivotal climatic variables, which influence spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. In this study, we have attempted to understand the interannual long-term trend analysis of the daily rainfall events of ≥?2.5 mm and rainfall events of extreme threshold, over the Western Ghats and coastal region of Karnataka. High spatial resolution (0.25°?×?0.25°) daily gridded rainfall data set of Indian Meteorological Department was used for this study. Thirty-eight grid points in the study area was selected to analyze the daily precipitation for 113 years (1901–2013). Grid points were divided into two zones: low land (exposed to the sea and low elevated area/coastal region) and high land (interior from the sea and high elevated area/Western Ghats). The indices were selected from the list of climate change indices recommended by ETCCDI and are based on annual rainfall total (RR), yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, consecutive wet days (≥?2.5 mm), Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), annual frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥?100 mm), frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥?65–100 mm), moderate rainfall (≥?2.5–65 mm), frequency of medium rainfall (≥?40–65 mm), and frequency of low rainfall (≥?20–40 mm). Mann-Kendall test was applied to the nine rainfall indices, and Theil-Sen estimator perceived the nature and the magnitude of slope in rainfall indices. The results show contrasting trends in the extreme rainfall indices in low land and high land regions. The changes in daily rainfall events in the low land region primarily indicate statistically significant positive trends in the annual total rainfall, yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, SDII, frequency of very heavy rainfall, and heavy rainfall as well as medium rainfall events. Furthermore, the overall annual rainfall strongly correlated with all the rainfall indices in both regions, especially with indices that represent heavy rainfall events which is responsible for the total increase of rainfall.  相似文献   

12.
A Barremian to Albian succession on Mount Kanala, part of a Tethyan isolated carbonate platform, was investigated for its δ13C variations. The limestone sequence is composed of a series of peritidal shallowing-upward cycles with clear petrographic evidence for strong early diagenetic overprinting related to repeated subaerial exposure. Despite significant impact of diagenesis, the observed changes in δ13C can be very well correlated with deep-water sections from different ocean basins and shallow water carbonate platforms in the Middle East. This lends further support to the applicability of δ13C variations for stratigraphic purposes in shallow-water limestones. Using the δ13C signal, time resolution in Lower Cretaceous platform carbonates can be significantly increased, independent of bio-zonations often hampered by ecological variability.
Cyclostratigraphic analysis of the Aptian part of the section shows that strong positive excursions of the cumulative departure from mean cycle thickness of the peritidal shallowing-upward cycles coincide with global positive δ13C excursions. This, and the fact that positive shifts in the δ13C record are preserved within shallow water limestones, provide evidence that black-shale accumulation in the ocean basins occurred during sea-level rise and flooding of platform tops. Integration of carbon-isotope-, cyclo- and sequence-stratigraphic results from different carbonate platforms indicate that strong positive global δ13C shifts and concurrent organic-carbon burial during black-shale deposition are ultimately caused by rapid rises of eustatic sea level. Hence, the rate of change of eustatic sea level is considered to play a crucial role in black-shale accumulation in the global ocean basins during the Cretaceous.  相似文献   

13.
热带生物海岸对全球变化的响应   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
张乔民 《第四纪研究》2007,27(5):834-844
以热带生物海岸现代过程研究成果为基础,结合国内外相关资料,分析我国红树林海岸和珊瑚礁海岸对全球变暖、海平面上升、大气CO2浓度升高和海洋酸化的响应.其中,全球变暖和大气CO2浓度升高总体上有利于红树林生长发育,海平面上升对红树林和珊瑚礁的影响取决于红树林潮滩淤积速率和珊瑚礁礁坪堆积速率与海平面上升速率之间的对比关系.海平面加速上升将威胁部分红树林、珊瑚礁及其后的海岸堤防.全球变暖海表异常高温导致珊瑚白化、海洋酸化导致珊瑚和珊瑚藻钙化率降低将成为21世纪珊瑚礁的重大威胁.全球变化的不确定性和生态系统响应机制仍然有待进一步研究.主要是人类不合理开发活动导致目前红树林和珊瑚礁的广泛严重破坏,加强海岸带综合管理和生态环境保护,加强生态系统恢复重建,是有效适应本世纪全球变化影响的重要措施.  相似文献   

14.
陆地表层水贮量变化对海平面上升贡献的综合评估   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
由于气候变暖和人为活动的加剧，大陆表面水贮量正在发生着显著的变化，这必将引起海平面的变化。然而，陆地表层水贮量的变化是非常复杂的。主要讨论了地下水、人工水库、天然湖泊和森林退化对海平面影响的主要研究结果，重新评估了这些因素对海平面贡献的程度，尤其是考虑了中国相关因子的作用。还就一些不确定的因素，如水库深层渗透水、土壤水贮量变化、灌溉蒸腾等对海平面的影响也进行了讨论。  相似文献   

15.
The present Cenozoic era is an icehouse episode characterized by a low sea level. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the human race has been emitting greenhouse gases, increasing the global atmospheric temperature, and causing a rise in sea level. If emissions continue to increase at the present rate, average global temperatures may rise by 1.5°C by the year 2050, accompanied by a rise of about 30 cm in sea level. However, the prediction of future climatic conditions and sea level is hampered by the difficulty in modelling the interactions between the lithosphere, kryosphere, biosphere and atmosphere; in addition, the buffering capacity of our planet is still poorly understood. As scientists cannot offer unambiguous answers to simple questions, sorcerer's apprentices fill in the gaps, presenting plans to save planet without inconveniencing us.The geological record can help us to learn about the regulation mechanisms of our planet, many of which are connected with or expressed as sea level changes. Global changes in sea level are either tectono-eustatic or glacioeustatic. Plate tectonic processes strongly control sea levels and climate in the long term. There is a strong feed-back mechanism between sea level and climate; both can influence and determine each other. Although high sea levels are a powerful climatic buffer, falling sea levels accelerate climatic accentuation, the growth of the polar ice caps and will hence amplify the drop in sea level. Important sources of fossil greenhouse gases are botanic CO2 production, CO2 released by volcanic activity, and water vapour. The latter is particularly important when the surface area of the sea increases during a rise in sea level (maritime greenhouse effect). A volcanogenic greenhouse effect (release of volcanogenic CO2) is possibly not equally important, as intense volcanic activity may take place both during icehouse episodes as well as during greenhouse episodes. The hydrosphere, land vegetation and carbonate platforms are major CO2 buffers which may both take up and release CO2. CO2 can be released from the ocean due to changes in the pCO2 caused by growth of coral reefs and by uptake of CO2-rich freshwater from karst provinces. Efficient sinks of CO2 are the weathering products of silicate rocks; long-term sinks are organic deposits caused by regional anoxic events which preferrably develop during sea level rises and highstands; and coal-bearing strata. Deposition of limestone also removes CO2 from the atmospheric-hydrospheric cycle at a long term. Biotic crises are often related to either sea-level lows or sea-level highs. Long-term sea-level lows, characteristic of glacial periods, indicate cooling as major cause of extinction. During verly long-lasting greenhouse episodes the sea level is very high, climate and circulation systems are stable and biotic crises often develop as a consequence of oxygen depletion. On land, niche-splitting, complex food web structures and general overspecialization of biota will occur. Whether the crisis is caused by a single anoxic event (e.g. in the Late Devonian) or a disturbance by an asteroid impact (e.g. the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary), it will only trigger total collapse of an ecosystem if a large part of it was already in decline. The regulatory mechanisms and buffers are thermodynamically extremely efficient if they are given sufficient time in which to deploy their power. However, after major catastrophes the re-establishment of successful ecosystems will take millions of years. The present rate of sea level and associated temperature rise is much too fast to be compensated and buffered by the network of natural controls. It is likely that the transitional time towards a new steady state will be an extremely variable and chaotic episode of unpredictable duration. Correspondence to: H. Seyfried  相似文献   

16.
The groundwater table in the piedmont plain was only about 1–2 m in depth in the 1950s and 1960s, but it lowered dramatically afterwards to about 25–27 m in depth (currently 21–23 m above sea level) due to overpumping of groundwater and drought in the region. This change has adversely affected the sustainable development and food supply of this important agricultural area. The groundwater table at Luancheng Experimental Station of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, located in the piedmont, dropped from 39.36 m in 1975 to 21.47 m above sea level in 1999, at an average rate of 0.72 m/year. Water balance components, such as daily rainfall, pan-evaporation, and evapotranspiration (by lysimeter after 1995) have been recorded since the 1970s, and they were used as variants to simulate monthly water table change based on a physically based statistical model. Groundwater samples were collected during the period 1998–2001, and tritium was measured in the laboratory to trace the groundwater flow from the Taihang Mountains to the piedmont. A reasonable exploitation rate of 150 mm/year was obtained from the model by assuming the annual water table is constant. The recharge and groundwater flow from the Taihang Mountains plays an important role in the water balance of the piedmont area, and it was estimated to be about 112.5 mm/year by using the variation of tritium with the depth, which followed a good exponential function. The simple water balance calculation indicated that the water table could recede at a rate of 0.8 m/year, which is close to the actual situation.  相似文献   

17.
研究格陵兰冰盖（GrIS）质量变化异常速率可以帮助了解异常气候事件驱动海平面变化的机制.聚焦于2010~2012年GrIS质量变化的异常速率,及其对海平面指纹（SLF）和相对海平面（RSL）变化的贡献.通过联合2003~2015年GRACE月重力场数据和表面质量平衡（SMB）数据,采用mascon拟合法及网格尺度因子恢复泄漏,获得了6个流域的质量变化时空分布.基于海平面变化方程（SLE）并考虑负荷自吸引效应估算了SLF的空间分布.结果表明,2003~2015年间GrIS总质量变化速率分别为-288±7 Gt/a及-275±1 Gt/a;而在2010~2012年间速率相应地增加至-456±30 Gt/a及-464±38 Gt/a,该时期格陵兰西北海岸及东南沿海地区呈现出大量冰盖融化,其对海平面的贡献变化呈现倒“V”型（即先升后降）,而全球平均海平面变化呈现出明显的正“V”型（即先降后升）.另外,GrIS融化对海平面的贡献约为31%,造成全球平均RSL增加了0.07 cm/a,而对斯堪的纳维亚及北欧地区的RSL贡献为-0.6 cm/a,GrIS融化造成的远海地区RSL上升速率比全球平均RSL速率高近30%.   相似文献   

18.
南极海冰与气候   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
在极区,海冰的形成在海洋上部和大气下部之间构成了新的交界面,改变了大洋表面的辐射平衡和能量平衡,隔离了海洋与大气之间的热交换和水汽交换;海冰冻融过程影响着大洋温、盐流的形成和强度;海冰对南大洋和南极大陆气象、气候有重要的影响,在气候环境系统中起着重要的作用。南极海冰作用区约占南半球雪冰作用区面积的58%,约占地球表面积的3.58%。其中,一年生海冰约占南极海冰区分布面积的83%;其分布面积从夏末2月份最小时的3×106 km2左右,到9月份冬末最大时的18×106 km2左右,一年中季节变化幅度可达15×106 km2,季节变化率>500%。海冰分布区域的年际变化较大。南极海冰区是影响季节和年际全球气候环境变化的重要区域。当前,国际南极海冰与气候研究的核心问题是海冰物理过程和在海冰区的海洋—大气相互作用。结合目前承担的研究课题,对国际南极海冰与气候研究的前沿动态和相关的国际计划进行了综述。  相似文献   

19.
 Land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal combined with a global sea level rise creates a serious environmental problem in the coastal region. Groundwater withdrawal results in fluid pressure change in the layers. The pressure change in the layers induces both elastic and inelastic land compaction. The elastic compaction can be recovered if the water level rises again and inelastic compaction becomes permanent. Groundwater response to barometric pressure change is used to estimate the elastic compaction in this study. The storativity, specific storage and other layer and hydrological information are used to estimate the inelastic compaction of the layers due to fluid withdrawal. The discussed methods are applied to estimate and predict the subsidence potentials resulting from overdrafting of the groundwater in the southern New Jersey. The estimated subsidence is about 2–3 cm near the location of monitoring wells in Atlantic, Camden, Cumberland and Cape May Counties over the past 20 years. If the current trend of water-level drop continues, the average subsidence in southern New Jersey in the vicinity of some monitoring wells will be about 3 cm in the next 20 years. The rise of global sea level is about 2 mm/year on average. Because of the very gentle slope in southern NJ, the combination of subsidence and sea level rise will translate into a potentially substantial amount of land loss in the coastal region in each 20 year period. This combination will also accelerate the coastal flooding frequency and the erosion rate of the New Jersey coastal plain, and pose a serious threat to the coastal economy. Received: 15 December 1997 · Accepted: 30 June 1998  相似文献   

20.
Studies of the Nile Delta coast have indicated wide values of local subsidence, ranging from 0.4 to 5 mm/yr. Trend analysis of sea-level rise and shoreline retreat at two Nile Delta promontories have been studied. Records from tide gauges at Alexandria (1944–1989) and Port Said (1926–1987), north of the Nile delta coast, indicate a submergence of the land and/or a rise of the sea-level of 2 and 2.4 mm/yr, respectively.Dramatic erosion has occurred on some beaches of the Nile Delta. This is greatest at the tips of the Rosetta and Damietta promontories, with shoreline retreat up to 58 m/yr. Relationship between the shoreline retreat and sea level trends in terms of correlation analysis and application of the Bruun Rule indicates that the sea level rise has, by itself, a relatively minor effect on coastal erosion. The sea-level trend at the Nile delta coast is found to be only one of several effects on shoreline retreat. Major recent effects include a combination of cut-off of sediment supply to the coast by damming the River Nile and local hydrodynamic forces of waves and currents. Estimates of local future sea-level rise by the year 2100 at Alexandria and Port Said, respectively, is expected to be 37.9 and 44.2 cm. These expectations, combined with other factors, could accelerate coastal erosion, inundate wetlands and lowlands, and increase the salinity of lakes and aquifers.  相似文献   

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