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1.
We developed a recipe for predicting strong ground motions based on a characterization of the source model for future crustal earthquakes. From recent developments of waveform inversion of strong motion data used to estimate the rupture process, we have inferred that strong ground motion is primarily related to the slip heterogeneity inside the source rather than average slip in the entire rupture area. Asperities are characterized as regions that have large slip relative to the average slip on the rupture area. The asperity areas, as well as the total rupture area, scale with seismic moment. We determined that the areas of strong motion generation approximately coincide with the asperity areas. Based on the scaling relationships, the deductive source model for the prediction of strong ground motions is characterized by three kinds of parameters: outer, inner, and extra fault parameters. The outer fault parameters are defined as entire rupture area and total seismic moment. The inner fault parameters are defined as slip heterogeneity inside the source, area of asperities, and stress drop on each asperity based on the multiple-asperity model. The pattern of rupture nucleation and termination are the extra fault parameters that are related to geomorphology of active faults. We have examined the validity of the earthquake sources constructed by our recipe by comparing simulated and observed ground motions from recent inland crustal earthquakes, such as the 1995 Kobe and 2005 Fukuoka earthquakes. 相似文献
2.
《Geofísica Internacional》2014,53(2):211-220
We apply a single-step, finite-fault analysis procedure to derive a coseismic slip model for the large MW 7.4 Ometepec-Pinotepa Nacional, Mexico earthquake of 20 March 2012, using teleseismic P waveforms recorded by the Global Seismographic Network. The inversion is conducted in near-realtime using source parameters available from the USGS/NEIC and the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (gCMT) project. The fault orientation and slip angle are obtained from the gCMT mechanism assuming that the fault coincides with the shallow-dipping nodal plane. The fault dimensions and maximum rise time are based on the magnitude reported for the event. Teleseismic data from the USGS/NEIC Continuous Waveform Buffer database are used in the inversion with record start times set to the P-wave arrivals used to compute the earthquake hypocenter. The inversion is stabilized by requiring a smooth transition of slip across the fault while minimizing the seismic moment. These constraints are applied using a smoothing weight that is estimated from the inverse problem, allowing the recovery of the least-complicated rupture history in a single step. Inversion of the deconvolved, ground-displacement waveforms reveals a simple, circular rupture similar in extent to the source identified by the USGS/NEIC using body-and surface-wave data, indicating that the teleseismic P waves can provide a first-order source model for the event in near-realtime. Additional inversions conducted using velocity records identify a more-detailed rupture model characterized by an elliptical 2500 km2 source region extending updip and downdip from the hypocenter. This elliptical source preserves the orientation and overall dimensions of a dual-source slip model obtained recently by other investigators using local strong motions and global seismic waveforms. The results indicate that velocity waveforms could provide additional details of the earthquake rupture in near-realtime, finite-fault inversions using teleseismic P waves. 相似文献
3.
利用山东数字地震台网记录到的胶东半岛及附近地区2010年以来的地震波形资料,采用Brune模型,并结合遗传算法反演了本区134次2.0级以上地震的震源波谱参数.结果表明胶东半岛地区中小地震的地震矩在9.76×1011～5.9×1014N·M之间;应力降范围在0.017～25MPa之间,均值是0.97MPa;视应力范围在0.06～10.2MPa,平均应力水平在0.396MPa.地震矩、应力降和视应力都与震级呈正相关关系,拐角频率与震级的关系不是很明显;地震矩和拐角频率成负相关关系.根据本区震源参数和震级的定量统计关系,去除震级影响,通过应力降和视应力随时间的变化得到目前正处于应力的释放时期. 相似文献
4.
This study employs an empirical-analytical approach in combination with Monte-Carlo method to establish relationships between
earthquake moment magnitude and upper limits of tsunami source parameters: double-amplitude of vertical bottom deformation,
displaced water volume, and potential energy of initial elevation. The approach is based on the Okada solution for a finite
rectangular fault and empirical scaling laws for earthquake sources. Results are compared to empirical and theoretical relationships
published previously. Parameters of some recent tsunami sources, those for which USGS provides slip distribution data, are
considered in light of the established relationships. 相似文献
5.
本文搜集、整理1998—2013年境内外天山及周边地区(包括中国新疆、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦等)500余个GPS观测点数据,采用GAMIT/GLOBK软件对其进行解算和平差计算,并利用了弹性块体模型计算区域块体边界断层闭锁深度、块体运动参数和主要活动断层的滑动速率.研究结果表明,东、西昆仑地震带闭锁深度最大(19km),其次为南天山地区,闭锁深度达到17km,闭锁深度最小的为哈萨克斯坦(13km);各块体相对欧亚板块作顺(逆)时针旋转,旋转速率最大(-0.7208±0.0034°/Ma)为塔里木块体,其围绕欧拉极(38.295±0.019°N,95.078±0.077°E)顺时针方向转动,旋转速率最小为天山东段(0.108±0.1210°/Ma),而天山东、西两段无论是在旋转速率上还是在旋转方向上都有显著的区别.西昆仑断裂带的滑动速率(10.2±2.8mm·a-1)最大,南天山西段滑动速率为9.5±1.8mm·a-1,其东段为3.9±1.1mm·a-1;而北天山东段滑动速率(4.7±1.1mm·a-1)高于北天山西段(3.7±0.9mm·a-1);塔里木盆地南缘的阿尔金断裂带平均滑动速率为7.6±1.4mm·a-1,其结果与阿勒泰断裂带滑动速率(7.6±1.6mm·a-1)基本相当;天山断裂带运动方式主要以挤压为主,而阿尔金、昆仑、阿尔泰以及哈萨克斯坦断裂带均是以走滑运动方式为主,除阿勒泰断裂带走滑方式为右旋以外,其余几个断裂带均为左旋运动.最后,利用主要断裂带的滑动速率计算出各地震带的地震矩变化率以及1900年以来地震矩累计变化量,其结果与利用地震目录计算所得到的地震矩进行比较,判定出各地震带上地震矩均衡分布状态,研究结果显示阿尔金、西昆仑、东昆仑和北天山东段断裂带存在较大的地震矩亏损,均具有发生7级以上地震的可能性,南天山东段和哈萨克斯坦断裂带地震矩亏损相对较小,具有孕育6~7级地震的潜能,而天山西段、阿勒泰地震矩呈现出盈余状态,不具在1~3年内有发生强震的可能. 相似文献
6.
2017年8月9日的新疆精河MS6.6地震是近年来天山北缘发生的最大地震,震中位于由多条逆冲断层组成的库松木契克断裂带内.由于震源较深、构造形变复杂、区域地震台站相对稀疏,仅根据震源机制解、余震分布和InSAR观测结果等难以直接判定发震构造.本文针对倾滑型地震发展了一种基于区域地震波形的破裂方向性测定方法,利用余震作为参考地震进行路径校正,根据主震和参考地震的波形时移差和Pn-Pg到时差分别确定主震在水平方向和深度方向的破裂尺度,进而推断同震破裂的延展方向和延伸尺度.本文在反演了主震的点源参数后,应用新发展的方法测定了地震的破裂方向性.点源反演结果显示,精河地震是一个发生在中地壳的高角度逆冲地震,矩震级约6.2,质心深度21km,震源持续时间5.5s,两个双力偶节面分别为102°/45°/106°(NP1)和259°/47°/74°(NP2).破裂方向性分析结果显示,地震的破裂面为南倾的NP1节面,地震沿着破裂起始点向西南方向、向下破裂,总破裂长度约11.5km,其中,沿深度的破裂范围约7km,沿水平的破裂范围约9km,平均破裂速度约2.1km·s-1.综合区域地质资料、卫星影像等判定本次地震的发震断层为精河南断层,地震可能只破裂了断层的下段(17~25km),并未破出地表. 相似文献
7.
1976年唐山发生了7.8级地震，相继又发生了两次大余震——滦县7.1级地震和宁河6.9级地震.地震发生在观测条件比较好的地区，水准测量和三角测量测得了地震的同震位移场.本研究采用原始水准测量数据，而不是采用根据水准数据处理的地面沉降图像，和三角测量数据反演了该地震序列的破裂分布.模型构建中考虑了滦县地震和宁河地震的断层形态和大小.结果表明，唐山地震主震断层有明显的右旋走滑性质，最大走向滑动错距>6 m，位于断层南段，北段的走滑分量明显小于南段.主震总地震矩达2.58×1020N·m，与地震波反演得到的地震矩的量级相当；滦县地震断层总体表现为左旋正断层，释放地震矩达4.95×1019N·m；宁河地震断层总体表现为右旋正断层，释放地震矩达3.94×1019N·m，比地震波反演的地震矩大一个量级.据此可以推测唐山地震的无震滑移主要发生在宁河地震断层的西部上，滑动性质以正断层为主.该结果对于唐山地震序列后的动力学演变过程及余震发生机理有一定参考. 相似文献
8.
In seismological literature, there exist two competing theories (the so-calledW model andL model) treating earthquake scaling relations between mean slip and rupture dimension and between seismic moment and rupture dimension. The core of arguments differentiating the two theories is whether the mean slip should scale with the rupture width or with the rupture length for large earthquakes. In this paper, we apply the elastic theory of dislocation to clarify the controversy. Several static dislocation models are used to simulate strike-slip earthquakes. Our results show that the mean slip scales linearly with the rupture width for small earthquakes with a rupture length smaller than the thickness of the seismogenic layer. However, for large earthquakes with a rupture length larger than the thickness of the seismogenic layer, our models show a more complicated scaling relation between mean slip and rupture dimension. When the rupture length is smaller than a cross-over length, the mean slip scales nearly linearly with the rupture length. When the rupture length is larger than a cross-over length, the mean slip approaches asymptotically a constant value and scales approximately with the rupture width. The cross-over length is a function of the rupture width and is about 75 km for earthquakes with a saturated rupture width of 15 km. We compare our theoretical predictions with observed source parameters of some large strike-slip earthquakes, and they match up well. Our results also suggest that when large earthquakes have a fixed aspect ratio of rupture length to rupture width (which seems to be the case for most subduction earthquakes) the mean slip scales with the rupture dimension in the same way as small earthquakes. 相似文献
9.
A statistical analysis was completed on the rupture data of 29 historical strike-slip earthquakes across the world. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of fault steps on the rupture termination of these events. The results show good correlations between the type and length of steps with the seismic rupture and a poor correlation between the step number and seismic rupture. For different magnitude intervals, the smallest widths of the fault steps (Lt) that can terminate the rupture propagation are variable: Lt?=?3 km for Ms 6.5~6.9, Lt?=?4 km for Ms 7.0~7.5, Lt?=?6 km for Ms 7.5~8.0, and Lt?=?8 km for Ms 8.0~8.5. The dilational fault step is easier to rupture through than the compression fault step. The smallest widths of the fault step for the rupture arrest can be used as an indicator to judge the scale of the rupture termination of seismic faults. This is helpful for research on fault segmentation, as well as estimating the magnitude of potential earthquakes, and is thus of significance for the assessment of seismic risks. 相似文献
10.
从导出的地震定标律和地震破裂过程的断裂力学模式出发,得到了震源平均位移、速度和加速度谱的表达式,进而又推导出震源的峰值位移d_m,速度v_m和加速度a_m的表达式:d_m=k_dM_0~2/~3τ_0~(2/3),v=k_vM_0~(1/3)τ_0~(4/3),a_m=k_aτ_0~2式中M_0是地震矩,τ_0是环境剪应力值,k_d,k_v,k_a为适当的常数.我们选用了66个地震的观测资料,这些地震的矩震级范围包括了从1级左右的极微震,3-5级的小震,直到6-7级的大震;地震矩从10~9-10~(20)Nm,跨越了10个数量级,并用这些地震检验了上述公式. 令所有地震的平均应力为5MPa,定出常数k_d,k_v,k_a,进而由速度和加速度观测资料求得66个地震的环境剪应力τ_0值,这些数值相当稳定.多数极微震的τ_0值在2-4MPa之间;小震的τ_0值多数在4-8MPa左右;大震的τ_0值为10MPa左右。τ_0值对震源深度和断层类型有明显的依赖性.一般深度很浅的小震和极微震,τ_0值很低;正断层地震的τ_0值相对较低;逆断层地震的τ_0值较高;走滑断层地震的τ_0值则居中. 相似文献
11.
文中收集了1999—2015年天山地震带及其周边地区的GNSS数据,计算得到了速度场结果,并利用弹性块体模型计算了研究区域内各块体的闭锁深度和主要断层的滑动速率。研究结果表明:南天山断裂带西段的迈丹断裂的缩短速率处于高值状态,达(-6.3±1.9) mm/a,高于南天山东段;北天山断裂带西段的缩短速率同样高于东段。利用主要断裂带的滑动速率计算出各地震带的地震矩积累变化及1900年以来的地震矩释放变化量,以分析地震矩亏损分布,结果显示北天山山前断裂、迈丹断裂、额尔齐斯断裂带北段和喀什河断裂西段存在较大的地震矩亏损,具有孕育7级以上地震的潜能,而北轮台断裂、柯坪断裂带中段则呈现地震矩盈余状态,在未来的一段时间内不具备发生强震的可能。 相似文献
12.
由于印度-欧亚板块碰撞,位于板块边界带的喜马拉雅地区大震频繁,但对其活动性的认识仍十分有限.2015年4月25日尼泊尔中东部地区时隔80年再次发生8级地震,为研究板缘地震提供了一次难得机遇.本文用西藏和尼泊尔的GPS连续观测数据和全球分布的远震地震波记录联合反演此次特大地震的破裂过程,结果显示此次地震发生在印度板块与青藏高原接触边界面——喜马拉雅主滑脱断层上.北倾11°、近东西(295°)走向的断层面破裂约100km长(博卡拉到加德满都),130km宽(从加德满都深入我国西藏吉隆县),破裂以逆冲滑动为主,平均幅度达到2.4m,释放的地震矩高达9.4×1020 N·m.反演结果还显示,震源体主要破裂分布深度范围为5~25km,应无地表破裂,属于一次盲地震.基于GPS资料推测的地壳现今运动速率及1833年地震的震源位置,我们推测地震在此次地震破裂区域复发的周期可能为150~200a,而极震区以南的深部滑脱断层仍保持闭锁,未来仍有导致灾害性大震的可能性. 相似文献
13.
Comparison of source parameters estimated in the frequency and time domains for seismic events at the Rudna copper mine,Poland 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Source parameters estimated in the frequency domain for 100 selected seismic events from the Rudna copper mine, with moment
magnitude ranging from 1.4 to 3.6, were collected to study their scaling relations and to compare them with the parameters
estimated in the time domain. The apparent stress and static stress drop, corrected for the limited bandwidth recording, increase
slightly in a similar manner with increasing seismic moment. The ratio of apparent stress to static stress drop, a measure
of radiation efficiency, is practically constant and its mean value is close to 0.1.
For 37 seismic events, with moment magnitude between 1.9 and 3.4, source parameters were estimated in the time domain from
relative source time functions, that displayed unilateral rupture propagation, and their rupture velocity could be estimated.
It ranges from 0.23 to 0.80 of shear wave velocity and is almost independent of seismic moment. The fault length, estimated
from the average source pulse width and rupture velocity, is clearly dependent on seismic moment and is smaller than the source
radius estimated from the corner frequency on the average by about 25 percent. There is no correlation between the values
of static stress drop estimated in the frequency and time domains, but the time domain stress drop is in general similar to
that estimated in the frequency domain. The apparent stress increases with increasing rupture velocity, and the ratio of apparent
stress to static stress drop seems also to depend on rupture velocity. 相似文献
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2014年2月12日,在新疆于田县发生了里氏7.3级地震.在该地震震中附近,前人研究证明发育了大量规模不同的活动断层(如康西瓦断裂与贡嘎错断裂等).根据地震触发理论,地震发生后因地壳同震变形会导致其周边不同性质断裂破裂应力发生变化,进而影响其地震的潜在危险性.本文利用地震远场波形记录,反演了该地震滑动模型.之后,根据弹性无限半空间位错理论,计算了该地震在近场范围内活动断裂上的同震应力变化.其目的在于讨论于田地震引起的附近断裂上的库仑应力变化以及这些活动断裂可能潜在的地震危险性.在地震发生后,从国际地震学联合会(IRIS)地震数据中心,下载了震中距离介于30°~90°的地震远场波形记录,为保证台站方位角分布均匀,从中挑选了27个不同方位角的高信噪比地震记录参与理论地震图的生成和波形反演过程.我们采用广义射线理论计算生成远场理论地震波形数据.每个子断层参数的反演则利用基于全局化反演的快速模拟退火反演方法.在有限断层反演过程中,我们采用了强调波形拟合的相关误差函数作为待反演的目标函数,拟合的断层参数使目标函数为最小.之后,根据弹性无限半空间位错理论,以库仑破裂准则为基础,结合反演得到的地震震源机制解和地震位错模型,计算该地震引起的近场断层面上库仑应力的变化.由远场波形计算结果可以看到,于田地震的震源深度为10km,地震断层的倾角约71.9°,破裂面上最大的同震位移达到210cm,以左旋走滑为主并具有正倾滑分量,地震能量主要在前15s内释放.由此得到该地震的地震矩为2.91×1019 N·m,地震震级为Mw6.9.于田地震引发的余震,大致分布在三个区域内:普鲁断裂北部、康西瓦断裂东部和贡嘎错断裂中部.弹性应力计算结果表明,于田地震导致阿尔金断裂西段、普鲁断裂中段、康西瓦断裂东段和贡嘎错断裂中段的静态库仑应力明显增加,其中以康西瓦断裂东段和贡嘎错断裂中段应力增量为最大,分别达到了0.05 MPa和0.04 MPa.大量研究证明,当地震所导致的库仑应力变化大于0.01 MPa时将具有明显的地震触发作用.根据本文结果,2014年于田Mw6.9地震使普鲁断裂、贡嘎错断裂和康西瓦断裂上的库仑应力增量均超过了触发阈值,具有被触发出地震的潜在危险.因此,在以后的地震学研究中,应加强对该三条断裂地震危险性的研究和监测.此外,近6年以来,研究区域发生了3次6级以上的地震.这些地震均沿着贡嘎错断裂,由南西向北东迁移,逐步靠近阿尔金断裂,并且逐渐由正倾滑型地震转变为走滑型地震.阿尔金断裂的走滑速率达到了9mm·a-1,所以,尽管本次地震导致的阿尔金断裂库仑应力增量小于0.01 MPa,阿尔金的地震危险性也应该加强监测. 相似文献
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利用远震资料、近场强震资料和合成孔径雷达干涉同震形变资料确定了2017年8月9日精河MS6.6地震的断层面参数及震源破裂细节。为得到可靠的断层几何参数,发展了一套基于InSAR数据滑动分布反演的三维格点搜索流程,对本次地震断层面的走向、倾角和震源深度进行了格点搜索。结果显示,地震断层面走向为95°,倾角为47°,震源深度为14 km。基于搜索得到的断层模型进行破裂过程联合反演的结果显示:精河MS6.6地震为一次单侧破裂事件,最大滑动量约为0.8 m,滑动区域集中在断层面上震源以西5—15 km,沿倾向15—25 km,破裂主要发生在10 km深度以下区域。断层面上的平均滑动角为106°。整个破裂过程释放的标量地震矩为3.6×1018 N·m,对应矩震级为MW6.3。破裂过程持续约9 s,期间的破裂速度约为2.1—2.6 km/s。由于地震破裂主要集中在10 km以下,未来可能需要关注该区域0—10 km发生潜在地震的可能性。 相似文献
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根据中国和全球地震台网记录的波形记录，采用W震相矩张量反演、反投影分析及有限断层模型反演方法，研究了2016年3月2日印尼7.8级地震破裂过程，分析讨论印尼地震震源运动学特征.结果表明：此地震为一次对称的双侧破裂走滑型事件，北北东─南南西向的断层节面（走向5°/倾角85°）为发震断层面.标量地震矩约6.19×1020 Nm，矩震级为7.79，最大的滑动量约11 m，位于破裂起始点北东，沿着断层走向约30 km处.破裂平均速度2.0~2.2 km·s-1，破裂持续时间35 s，破裂在5~25 s内释放的能量，约占总能量的97%.最终形成了总长度90 km左右的断层.印尼地震具有破裂持续时间短、破裂速度慢、高滑动能量带相对集中等显著特点.本研究对进一步增进海洋岩石圈地震的震源特性认识有重要参考意义. 相似文献
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1936年广西灵山M6? 地震是华南沿海地震带内陆地区有地震记载以来发生的最大地震，由于当时仪器记录缺乏、时代相隔较长且未进行详细的现场调查，对该地震的基本参数尚存争议。本文在概述该地震地表破裂带基本特征的基础上，利用地震地表破裂带长度和最大同震位移等数据重新讨论了该地震的基本参数和发震构造。研究结果表明1936年灵山M6? 地震的宏观震中位于灵山断裂北段与友僚—蕉根坪断裂交会处一带，震级为M6.8左右，震中烈度达Ⅸ度强，罗阳山西北麓的灵山断裂为该地震的发震构造。 相似文献