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1.
In this paper, we promote a novel approach to develop reservoir operation routines by learning from historical hydrologic information and reservoir operations. The proposed framework involves a knowledge discovery step to learn the real drivers of reservoir decision making and to subsequently build a more realistic (enhanced) model formulation using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP). The enhanced SDP model is compared to two classic SDP formulations using Lake Shelbyville, a reservoir on the Kaskaskia River in Illinois, as a case study. From a data mining procedure with monthly data, the past month’s inflow (Qt−1), current month’s inflow (Qt), past month’s release (Rt−1), and past month’s Palmer drought severity index (PDSIt−1) are identified as important state variables in the enhanced SDP model for Shelbyville Reservoir. When compared to a weekly enhanced SDP model of the same case study, a different set of state variables and constraints are extracted. Thus different time scales for the model require different information. We demonstrate that adding additional state variables improves the solution by shifting the Pareto front as expected while using new constraints and the correct objective function can significantly reduce the difference between derived policies and historical practices. The study indicates that the monthly enhanced SDP model resembles historical records more closely and yet provides lower expected average annual costs than either of the two classic formulations (25.4% and 4.5% reductions, respectively). The weekly enhanced SDP model is compared to the monthly enhanced SDP, and it shows that acquiring the correct temporal scale is crucial to model reservoir operation for particular objectives.  相似文献   

2.
This paper presents optimization and uncertainty analysis of operation policies for Hirakud reservoir system in Orissa state, India. The Hirakud reservoir project serves multiple purposes such as flood control, irrigation and power generation in that order of priority. A 10-daily reservoir operation model is formulated to maximize annual hydropower production subjected to satisfying flood control restrictions, irrigation requirements, and various other physical and technical constraints. The reservoir operational model is solved by using elitist-mutated particle swarm optimization (EMPSO) method, and the uncertainty in release decisions and end-storages are analyzed. On comparing the annual hydropower production obtained by EMPSO method with historical annual hydropower, it is found that there is a greater chance of improving the system performance by optimally operating the reservoir system. The analysis also reveals that the inflow into reservoir is highly uncertain variable, which significantly influences the operational decisions for reservoir system. Hence, in order to account uncertainty in inflow, the reservoir operation model is solved for different exceedance probabilities of inflows. The uncertainty in inflows is represented through probability distributions such as normal, lognormal, exponential and generalized extreme value distributions; and the best fit model is selected to obtain inflows for different exceedance probabilities. Then the reservoir operation model is solved using EMPSO method to arrive at suitable operational policies corresponding to various inflow scenarios. The results show that the amount of annual hydropower generated decreases as the value of inflow exceedance probability increases. The obtained operational polices provides confidence in release decisions, therefore these could be useful for reservoir operation.  相似文献   

3.
A new formulation is presented for the analysis of reservoir systems synthesizing concepts from the traditional stochastic theory of reservoir storage, moments analysis and reliability programming. The analysis is based on the development of the first and second moments for the stochastic storage state variable. These expressions include terms for the failure probabilities (probabilities of spill or deficit) and consider the storage bounds explicitly. Using this analysis, expected values of the storage state, variances of storage, optimal release policies and failure probabilities — useful information in the context of reservoir operations and design, can be obtained from a nonlinear programming solution. The solutions developed from studies of single reservoir operations on both an annual and monthly basis, compare favorably with those obtained from simulation. The presentation herein is directed to both traditional reservoir storage theorists who are interested in the design of a reservoir and modern reservoir analysts who are interested in the long term operation of reservoirs.  相似文献   

4.
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5.
End users face a range of subjective decisions when evaluating climate change impacts on hydrology, but the importance of these decisions is rarely assessed. In this paper, we evaluate the implications of hydrologic modelling choices on projected changes in the annual water balance, monthly simulated processes, and signature measures (i.e. metrics that quantify characteristics of the hydrologic catchment response) under a future climate scenario. To this end, we compare hydrologic changes computed with four different model structures – whose parameters have been obtained using a common calibration strategy – with hydrologic changes computed with a single model structure and parameter sets from multiple options for different calibration decisions (objective function, local optima, and calibration forcing dataset). Results show that both model structure selection and the parameter estimation strategy affect the direction and magnitude of projected changes in the annual water balance, and that the relative effects of these decisions are basin dependent. The analysis of monthly changes illustrates that parameter estimation strategies can provide similar or larger uncertainties in simulations of some hydrologic processes when compared with uncertainties coming from model choice. We found that the relative effects of modelling decisions on projected changes in catchment behaviour depend on the signature measure analysed. Furthermore, parameter sets with similar performance, but located in different regions of the parameter space, provide very different projections for future catchment behaviour. More generally, the results obtained in this study prompt the need to incorporate parametric uncertainty in multi‐model frameworks to avoid an over‐confident portrayal of climate change impacts. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
An entropy-based investigation into the variability of precipitation   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Employing the entropy concept spatial and temporal variability of precipitation time series were investigated for the State of Texas, USA. Marginal entropy was used to investigate the variability associated with monthly, seasonal and annual time series. Also, apportionment entropy and intensity entropy were used for investigating the intra-annual and decadal distributions of monthly and annual precipitation amounts and numbers of rainy days within a year and decade respectively. Finally, the Hurst exponent and the Mann–Kendall test were used to evaluate the long-term persistence and trend in the variability of precipitation. Distinct spatial patterns in annual series and different seasons were observed. The variability of precipitation amount as well as number of rainy days within a year increased from east to west of Texas. The results also indicated that highly disorderliness in the amount of precipitation and number of rainy days caused severe droughts during the 1950’s in whole of Texas.  相似文献   

7.
Hydrologic models of irrigated lands generally adopt either a basin-scale or a root-zone perspective. While basin-wide macro-scale models rely on the aggregation of important spatial and temporal data across large areas, micro-scale root-zone models depend on the definition of rigid boundaries around the zone of plant–soil–water interaction. In reality, irrigation management decisions are made on a field by field basis and can interact across field boundaries. This paper first describes a shallow water table model, based on deforming finite element (DFE) framework, to characterize the near-surface field-to-field hydrologic response to various irrigation and drainage management regimes along a gently sloping alluvial fan. The model is then enhanced through changing geometry of a fluctuating water table below a series of irrigated fields. Such an enhancement also offers computational flexibility relative to the saturated–unsaturated models commonly used in micro-scale studies. The model is designed with the alluvial fan aquifers of California’s western San Joaquin Valley as reference systems.  相似文献   

8.
An attempt of using stochastic hydrologic technique to assess the intrinsic risk of reservoir operation is made in this study. A stochastic simulation model for reservoir operation is developed. The model consists of three components: synthetic generation model for streamflow and sediment sequences, one-dimensional delta deposit model for sediment transport processes in reservoirs, and simulation model for reservoir operation. This kind of integrated simulation model can be used to simulate not only the inflow uncertainty of streamflow and sedimentation, but also the variation in operation rules of reservoirs. It is herein used for the risk assessment of a reservoir, and the simulation is performed for different operation scenarios. Simulation for the 100-year period of sediment transport and deposition in the river-reservoir system indicates that the navigation risk is much higher than that of hydropower generation or sediment deposition in the reservoir. The risk of sediment deposition at the river-section near the backwater profile is also high thereby the navigation at the river-segment near this profile takes high risk because of inadequate navigation depth.  相似文献   

9.
: As with all dynamic programming formulations, differential dynamic programming (DDP) successfully exploits the sequential decision structure of multi-reservoir optimization problems, overcomes difficulties with the nonconvexity of energy production functions for hydropower systems, and provides optimal feedback release policies. DDP is particularly well suited to optimizing large-scale multi-reservoir systems due to its relative insensitivity to state-space dimensionality. This advantage of DDP encourages expansion of the state vector to include additional multi-lag hydrologic information and/or future inflow forecasts in developing optimal reservoir release policies. Unfortunately, attempts at extending DDP to the stochastic case have not been entirely successful. A modified stochastic DDP algorithm is presented which overcomes difficulties in previous formulations. Application of the algorithm to a four-reservoir hydropower system demonstrates its capabilities as an efficient approach to solving stochastic multi-reservoir optimization problems. The algorithm is also applied to a single reservoir problem with inclusion of multi-lag hydrologic information in the state vector. Results provide evidence of significant benefits in direct inclusion of expanded hydrologic state information in optimal feedback release policies.  相似文献   

10.
: As with all dynamic programming formulations, differential dynamic programming (DDP) successfully exploits the sequential decision structure of multi-reservoir optimization problems, overcomes difficulties with the nonconvexity of energy production functions for hydropower systems, and provides optimal feedback release policies. DDP is particularly well suited to optimizing large-scale multi-reservoir systems due to its relative insensitivity to state-space dimensionality. This advantage of DDP encourages expansion of the state vector to include additional multi-lag hydrologic information and/or future inflow forecasts in developing optimal reservoir release policies. Unfortunately, attempts at extending DDP to the stochastic case have not been entirely successful. A modified stochastic DDP algorithm is presented which overcomes difficulties in previous formulations. Application of the algorithm to a four-reservoir hydropower system demonstrates its capabilities as an efficient approach to solving stochastic multi-reservoir optimization problems. The algorithm is also applied to a single reservoir problem with inclusion of multi-lag hydrologic information in the state vector. Results provide evidence of significant benefits in direct inclusion of expanded hydrologic state information in optimal feedback release policies.  相似文献   

11.
It is hypothesized that the unit impulse response of a linearized kinematic diffusion (KD) model is a probability distribution suitable for frequency analysis of hydrologic samples with zero values. Such samples may include data on monthly precipitation in dry seasons, annual low flow, and annual maximum peak discharge observed in arid and semiarid regions. The hypothesized probability distribution has two parameters, which are estimated using the methods of moments (MOM) and maximum likelihood (MLM). Also estimated are errors in quantiles for MOM and MLM. The distribution shows an equivalency of MOM and MLM with respect to the mean value—an important property for ML-estimation in the case of the unknown true distribution function. The hypothesized KD distribution is tested on 44 discharge data series and compared with the Muskingum-like (M-like) probability distribution function. A comparison of empirical distribution with KD and M-like distributions shows that MOM better reproduces the upper tail of the distribution, while MLM is more robust for higher sample values and more conditioned on the value of the probability of the zero value event. The KD-model is suitable for frequency analysis of short samples with zero values and it is more universal than the M-like model as its modal value cannot be only equaled to zero value but also to any positive value.  相似文献   

12.
The assessment of sediment yield from reservoir siltation requires knowledge of the reservoir's sediment trap efficiency (TE). Widely used approaches for the estimation of the long‐term mean TE rely on the ratio of the reservoir's storage capacity (C) to its catchment size (A) or mean annual inflow (I). These approaches have been developed from a limited number of reservoirs (N ≤ 40), most of them located in temperate climate regions. Their general applicability to reservoirs receiving highly variable runoff such as in semi‐arid areas has been questioned. Here, we examine the effect of ephemeral inflow on the TE of 10 small (≤ 280 × 103 m3), intermittently dry reservoirs located in the Kruger National Park. Fieldwork was conducted to determine the storage capacity of the reservoir basins. The frequency and magnitude of spillage events was simulated with the daily time step Pitman rainfall–runoff model. Different runoff scenarios were established to cope with uncertainties arising from the lack of runoff records and imperfect input data. Scenarios for the relationship between water and sediment discharge were created based on sediment rating curves. Taking into account uncertainties in hydrological modelling, uncertainties of mean TE estimates, calculated from all scenarios (N = 9), are moderate, ranging from ±6 to ±11% at the 95% confidence level. By comparison, estimating TE from the storage capacity to catchment area (C/A) ratio induces high uncertainty (ranges of 35 to 65%), but this uncertainty can be confined (15 to 33%) when the latter approach is combined with hydrological modelling. Established methods relying on the storage capacity to mean annual inflow (C/I) ratio most probably lead to an overestimation of the TE for the investigated reservoirs. The approach presented here may be used instead to estimate the TE of small, intermittently dry reservoirs in semi‐arid climate regions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
A 7-year sediment transport monitoring on the Upper Niger rivers was used to study the relationship between suspended sediment concentration and river discharge. During annual floods, these relationships show positive hysteresis. This paper presents the results of two models that estimate the time evolution of suspended sediment concentration using water discharge data only. The first model is based on a statistical approach using two relationships, one for the rising stage period of the flood and one for the recession period of the annual flood; the second model is a lumped conceptual one; it supposes that the sediment flux observed in the river comes from two different sources of sediment and that these two sources may be regarded as two different reservoirs. The erosion of the first reservoir represents hillslope erosion observed during the runoff season. Sediment supply from this ‘reservoir’ is limited in time because depletion occurs during the runoff season. The second reservoir is unlimited in time and quantity and its erosion represents contributions coming from bank erosion and mobilisation of deposits in the channel network.

Both of the models are compared with a simple rating curve based model. The model results show that the conceptual model has the highest efficiency to reproduce from weekly discharge only the time evolution of weekly suspended sediment concentrations, the time evolution of weekly sediment fluxes, and the global annual sediment yields.  相似文献   


14.
Total ozone data from some European stations have been analyzed to detect the ozone decrease in different seasons from 1979 to 1995. The differences between the winter–spring (December–March) and summer (May–August) total ozone means have decreased distinctly during the last three decades, by 10 Dobson Units per decade, showing that the winter–spring decrease is significantly stronger than the summer one. Applying a multiple regression model to the monthly means of tropopause height, positive trends in the summer and winter–spring seasons have been found, especially since 1979. This corresponds to the accelerating ozone decrease then. The possibility of using tropopause height variations as an indicator of dynamical variability in the total ozone trend model is discussed. The total ozone response to the changes of tropopause height seems to be independent of timescale over which the tropopause-total ozone relationship has been examined (month-to-month, interannual). The total ozone trends, as well as the accelerated rate of ozone decrease since 1979 in the winter–spring and summer seasons, respectively, are reduced by about 0.5–1% per decade after inclusion of the tropopause height effect on the ozone model.  相似文献   

15.
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16.
Hill reservoirs are rain water‐harvesting structures that have been increasingly adopted in arid and semi‐arid regions, such as North Africa, to capture and conserve runoff water and for use as alternative water resources in agricultural development. Currently, process‐based information on reservoir hydrology is needed to improve reservoir management practices. The study aims to develop an approach to estimate the reservoir–subsurface exchange flux and its associated error at the annual, monthly, and intra‐monthly time scales to better understand the hydrological functioning and dynamics of hill reservoirs. This approach is based on a hydrological water balance of the hill reservoir by considering all water input and output fluxes and their associated errors. The results demonstrate the ability and relevance of the approach in estimating the net reservoir–subsurface exchange flux and its error estimations at various time scales. Its application on the Kamech catchment (Northern Tunisia) for the 2009–2012 period demonstrates that the net reservoir–subsurface exchange flux is positive, i.e. the infiltration from the hill reservoir to the aquifer dominates over the discharge from the aquifer to the reservoir. Moreover, reservoir–subsurface exchange constitutes the main output component in the water balance. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Reservoirs are the most important constructions for water resources management and flood control. Great concern has been paid to the effects of reservoir on downstream area and the differences between inflows and dam site floods due to the changes of upstream flow generation and concentration conditions after reservoir’s impoundment. These differences result in inconsistency between inflow quantiles and the reservoir design criteria derived by dam site flood series, which can be a potential risk and must be quantificationally evaluated. In this study, flood frequency analysis (FFA) and flood control risk analysis (FCRA) methods are used with the long reservoir inflow series derived from a multiple inputs and single output model and a copula-based inflow estimation model. The results of FFA and FCRA are compared and the influences on reservoir flood management are also discussed. The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China is selected as a case study. Results show that the differences between the TGR inflow and dam site floods are significant which result in changes on its flood control risk rates. The mean values of TGR’s annual maximum inflow peak discharge and 3 days flood volume have increased 5.58 and 3.85% than the dam site ones, while declined by 1.82 and 1.72% for the annual maximum 7 and 15 days flood volumes. The flood control risk rates of middle and small flood events are increased while extreme flood events are declined. It is shown that the TGR can satisfy the flood control task under current hydrologic regime and the results can offer references for better management of the TGR.  相似文献   

18.
This study presents a method to estimate streamflow in rivers regulated by lakes or reservoirs using synthetic satellite remote sensing data. To illustrate the approach, the new reservoir routing method is integrated into the Hillslope River Routing model, and a case study is presented for the highly regulated river in the Cumberland River basin (46,400 km2). The study period is April–May 2000, which contains a significant flood event that occurred in 1–2 May 2000. The model is shown to capture storage/release characterises in eight reservoirs with a mean normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 20% for entire simulation period and 27% for the May flood event. These errors are 69 and 75%, respectively, less than the NRMSE if reservoirs are not included in the model. Given the limitations of satellite missions, the impacts of the revisit cycles and operational periods are quantified. We used 26 observation sets of satellite altimetry over Cumberland River basin that are generated by considering both repeat cycles and satellite operation periods. For the revisit cycles, increasing the interval of repeat cycle leads to a corresponding increase of mean NRMSE from 27 to 59% as a result of sampling fewer flood events and smoothing of the change in storage signal as a result of longer intervals between visits. For the operation periods, the impact of data periods is limited because of the strong seasonal pattern of reservoir operations. Overall, the results suggest that the generalized routing model derived from reservoir stage observations can be used to simulate reservoir operating conditions, which can be used in forecasting hydrologic impacts of land cover or climate change. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
根据水库诱发地震的发震相关因素和特点,确定出水库诱发地震数据库元参数和库结构,并通过资料收集初步建立起水库诱发地震数据库,它包含了全世界水库诱发地震震例1 31个、中国大Ⅰ型水库110座、中国大Ⅱ型水库200座和坝高达100m的水库70座,并具有快速查询、统计、图示等简单功能。在汶川M_S8.0地震发生后的第2天,应地震主管部门的要求及时给出了四川省及附近区域已建大型水库的基本信息及分布。可见,水库诱发地震数据库是有助于政府部门进行地震快速对策的一种有效工具  相似文献   

20.
东江流域在广东省政治、经济和社会中占有重要地位,域内新丰江、枫树坝和白盆珠3大水库的来水量直接影响区域生产生活供水.面对水库群联合调度新要求,本文利用Copula函数构建了3大水库入库流量的二维和三维联合分布,分析其丰枯遭遇概率,主要结论如下:(1)3大水库两两间丰枯同步的概率大于丰枯异步的概率,非汛期丰枯同步的概率大于汛期.其中,白盆珠与新丰江、枫树坝丰枯异步的概率相对较大,这为其与另两个水库丰枯互补提供了可能;(2)三维联合分布显示,3大水库丰枯同步的概率在全年、汛期和非汛期均较大,依次为42.29%、41.74%和51.99%,其中同丰和同枯的概率远大于同平的概率.枫树坝与新丰江对下游具有补偿能力的概率分别为29.81%和23.03%,不具有补偿能力的概率分别为32.75%和22.32%;(3)利用3大水库的联合分布,可获得各水库不同入库流量遭遇的概率以及特定概率下各水库入库流量的可能组合,对3大水库联合优化调度具有重要的理论与实践价值.  相似文献   

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