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基于Dieterich地震活动性理论，本文推导出计算余震发生率和余震累积次数的一般表达式，其中主震后发震断层内部的剪切应力随时间的演化过程遵从Jeffreys-Lomnitz蠕变模型，且与修正Omori定律直接相关。修正Omori定律中的p值与震后断层的短时应力加卸载过程正相关。采用Rubin和Ampuero 给出的震后断层自维持蠕滑模型本文得出计算余震发生率的近似表达式，并对2008年汶川地震序列进行拟合。结果表明，p值的大小直接对应了速率-状态摩擦定律中摩擦参量b/a，而修正Omori定律中的c值则与速率-状态摩擦定律中的临界滑移Dc相关。对于汶川余震序列而言，拟合结果显示b/a约为1.13，Dc约为2—3 cm。Rubin-Ampuero震后自维持蠕滑描述了震后孕震层内部短暂的速率变化特征，是孕震断层演化过程不可缺少的环节。 相似文献
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对遵从实验室得到的速率—状态摩擦定律的准动态连续三维断层模型进行了数值试验。我们做了一些测试,其中库仑应力（CS）或在整个断层增加,或仅在断层的局部增加。对于局部应力加载我们发现,如果触发几乎是瞬时的（1～2个月内）,成核发生在库仑应力增加区域的走向延伸部位。相反,如果在这几个月内地震没有发生,它可以在断层的任何地方成核,甚至比没有正的库仑应力加载要晚。这些特征意味着新的发现,其对三维模型而言是独特的,并且不能由一维弹簧一滑块模型来解释。该发现可应用在余震（依赖时间的）地震危险性评估中。 相似文献
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利用速率-状态摩擦定律(Rate-and State-Dependent Friction Law:简称RSF定律),结合McKenzie-Brune摩擦生热模型,本文分别从Ruina提出的RSF定律和Chester-Higgs提出的RSF定律出发,通过一维弹簧-滑块模型,采用四阶变步长的Dormand-Prince算法,对断层演化过程进行了数值模拟,探讨了摩擦生热对断层演化进程的影响.模拟结果显示,与Ruina-模型相比,Chester-Higgs-模型在断层高速滑动时存有更大的摩擦强度,表明摩擦生热对断层具有一定的强化作用,且同临界滑移距离的取值相关.而且,Chester-Higgs-模型在失稳时的断层面温度远远低于Ruina-模型,表明摩擦生热在断层演化过程中能抑制断层面温度的剧烈升高,且正应力和临界滑移距离越大,两种模型的温差越为明显,而断层的刚度和尺度则对温度的影响很小.模拟两种模型周期演化过程的结果表明,在相同的初始条件下,Chester-Higgs-模型给出的断层失稳周期明显比Ruina-模型更短,说明摩擦生热对断层自身演化最显著的影响是较大地缩短了地震重复发生周期.当断层进入周期性演化后,Chester-Higgs-模型给出的摩擦强度大于Ruina-模型,且对第一次非周期性失稳的摩擦强度和剩余应力的继承性更好.另外,由ChesterHiggs-模型给出的静态应力降远小于Ruina-模型给出的结果,所对应的单个事件的滑移量也小于Ruina-模型. 相似文献
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余震触发机制的Dieterich解析模型被广泛应用于区域地震活动性的定量分析以及依赖时间的概率地震预测模型的建立等方面. 基于滑移速率和状态相依赖的摩擦定律和弹簧-滑块模型, 从Dieterich断层滑移速率方程出发, 给出了静态应力扰动下触发地震的时钟提前或推后的近似解, 从而明确地阐明了触发地震的产生机制与断层的演化过程密切相关, 并与传统位错模型下库仑应力扰动时间提前或推后量作了比较. 采用对数线性拟合方法求得了汶川MW7.9主震后余震序列持续时间, 符合Dieterich理论结果. 以汶川余震序列为例, 给出了两种不同的应力扰动模式在该余震序列中的应用. 结果表明, 经典Dieterich扰动解无法给出主震发生后即时余震数量的异常增加, 而考虑主震前后剪应力速率变化的Dieterich分段解则可反映出余震发生率及个数随时间的演化特征. 相似文献
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余震触发机制的Dieterich解析模型被广泛应用于区域地震活动性的定量分析以及依赖时间的概率地震预测模型的建立等方面.基于滑移速率和状态相依赖的摩擦定律和弹簧-滑块模型,从Dieterich断层滑移速率方程出发,给出了静态应力扰动下触发地震的时钟提前或推后的近似解,从而明确地阐明了触发地震的产生机制与断层的演化过程密切相关,并与传统位错模型下库仑应力扰动时间提前或推后量作了比较.采用对数线性拟合方法求得了汶川Mw7.9主震后余震序列持续时间,符合Dieterich理论结果.以汶川余震序列为例,给出了两种不同的应力扰动模式在该余震序列中的应用.结果表明,经典Dieterich扰动解无法给出主震发生后即时余震数量的异常增加,而考虑主震前后剪应力速率变化的Dieterich分段解则可反映出余震发生率及个数随时间的演化特征. 相似文献
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速率和状态相依赖的摩擦定律是本文采用的重要定律。结合Chester-Higgs摩擦模型和McKenzie-Brune摩擦生热模型，在一维弹簧-滑块-断层近似模型下，利用四阶变步长的Dormand-Prince算法，研究探讨了断层摩擦生热对断层演化的影响。结果表明:与忽略温度影响的情形相比，摩擦生热造成的温度上升可导致断层滑移时刻的略微提前，并伴随着摩擦系数和状态变量的下降，同时也使得断层的滑移量和应力降略有减小，而滑移速率有所增大；另外，在考虑温度影响时，有效正应力和临界滑移距离也会影响断层的演化过程，断层上的有效正应力越大，断层失稳时刻越提前，温度上升越明显；断层的临界滑移距离越大，断层失稳时刻则越迟，温度上升越显著，但当临界滑移距离超过5 cm时，具有不同临界滑移距离的断层，失稳时的温度则基本保持一致。 相似文献
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粘弹性有限元与弹簧滑块耦合模型——断层与地块相互作用的数值模拟 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
建立了粘弹性有限元方法和弹簧滑块的耦合模型,模拟了缓慢的大尺度地壳构造运动转化为急剧的小尺度断层失稳的时间过程,展示了地壳块体系统在板块边界作用下的相对运动,断层分配了主要的变形,导致了应力的积累,通过弹簧滑块模型模拟出服从Gutenberg-Richter定律的地震序列。断层摩擦强度的不均匀性控制了地震的发生以及块体的应力状态,地震破裂过程由成核点开始向两端扩展,伴随有应力的触发、应力释放和应力再分配的过程。断层的破裂事件释放了地壳块体的部分应力,靠近断层的地块应力受到局部破裂段的影响,而远离断层的地块应力状态受到断层整体地震活动的控制。 相似文献
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本文基于结合速率-状态摩擦定律（RSF）的二维准动力学数值模型，以半空间垂直走滑断层为研究对象，通过比较两种正应力随深度变化模型的模拟结果，研究了浅层正应力变化对断层演化参数、地震孕育过程、震后滑移传播等方面的影响.结果显示，我们的数值模型在给定模型参数和约束条件下，能够完整模拟出地震周期中震间、震前、同震以及震后多个特征阶段.常数正应力模型下，动态破裂在浅层速率强化区停止，而在浅层变化正应力模型下动态破裂可以传播至自由表面，导致浅层更高的最大滑移速率和同震滑移量.两种模型下的地震矩、地震周期、平均应力降和震后滑移传播等差别不明显.两种滑移模型的傅氏振幅谱与理论K-2模型傅氏振幅谱均符合较好，且浅层变化正应力模型下的拐角波数值高于常数正应力模型，说明两种模型均符合地震同震滑移模型的运动学特征，并且浅层变化正应力模型下最终应该产生高于常数正应力模型的高频强地面运动水平.我们认为选用不同的模型参数对最终结果存在显著影响，应当根据具体问题来选择模型参数，这样才能在保证结果准确前提下有效提高计算效率. 相似文献
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Ya-Ju Hsu Jean-Philippe Avouac Shui-Beih Yu Chien-Hsin Chang Yih-Min Wu Jochen Woessner 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2009,166(10-11):1853-1884
We use preseismic, coseismic, and postseismic GPS data of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake to infer spatio-temporal variation of fault slip and frictional behavior on the Chelungpu fault. The geodetic data shows that coseismic slip during the Chi-Chi earthquake occurred within a patch that was locked in the period preceding the earthquake, and that afterslip occurred dominantly downdip from the ruptured area. To first-order, the observed pattern and the temporal evolution of afterslip is consistent with models of the seismic cycle based on rate-and-state friction. Comparison with the distribution of temperature on the fault derived from thermo-kinematic modeling shows that aseismic slip becomes dominant where temperature is estimated to exceed 200° at depth. This inference is consistent with the temperature induced transition from velocity-weakening to velocity-strengthening friction that is observed in laboratory experiments on quartzo-feldspathic rocks. The time evolution of afterslip is consistent with afterslip being governed by velocity-strengthening frictional sliding. The dependency of friction, μ, on the sliding velocity, V, is estimated to be ${{\partial \mu }/{\partial \, {\rm ln}\, V}} = 8 \times 10^{ - 3}$ . We report an azimuthal difference of about 10–20° between preseismic and postseismic GPS velocities, which we interpret to reflect the very low shear stress on the creeping portion of the décollement beneath the Central Range, of the order of 1–3 MPa, implying a very low friction of about 0.01. This study highlights the importance of temperature and pore pressure in determining fault frictional sliding. 相似文献
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Dennise C. Templeton Robert M. Nadeau Roland Bürgmann 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2009,277(1-2):1-8
Repeating earthquakes (REs) are sequences of events that have virtually identical waveforms and are interpreted to represent fault asperities driven to failure by loading from aseismic creep on the surrounding fault surface at depth. To investigate the postseismic deformation after the 1984 M6.2 Morgan Hill earthquake, we identify RE sequences occurring on the central Calaveras fault between 1984 and 2005 using a combination of cross-correlation and spectral coherence techniques. Both the accelerated slip transients due to the earthquake as well as the return to interseismic background creep rates can be imaged from our dataset. A comparison between the regions of the fault that ruptured coseismically and the locations of the REs show that REs preferentially occur in areas adjacent to the coseismic rupture. Using calculated RE-derived subsurface slip distributions at 6 months and 18 months after the mainshock, we predict surface electronic distance meter (EDM) line length changes between stations near the Morgan Hill rupture area. The RE-derived slip model underpredicts a subset of the observed line-length changes. Inclusion of transient aseismic slip below the seismogenic zone is needed to better match the measured surface deformation. 相似文献
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Kinetic shear resistance,fluid pressures and radiation efficiency during seismic faulting 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Richard H. Sibson 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1977,115(1-2):387-400
Summary During earthquake faulting, radiation efficiency and the degree stress relief are critically dependent on the kinetic shear resistance. This is often assumed to stay constant during slip, but geological evidence suggests that for moderate or large shallow earthquakes it may decrease dramatically to near-zero values once slip is initiated, either by melt formation or by transient increases in fluid pressure on the fault plane. The latter, probably more common process may arise partly through an interaction between temperature and water pressure, and partly through dilatancy recovery as shear stress is relieved. If the fault remains undrained, stress relief should be absolute with seismic efficiency reaching high values, so that stress drops give a measure of the level of tectonic shear stress in fault zones. Supporting evidence comes from the observation that apparent stress is generally about half the stress drop. 相似文献
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Recent observations made by Kanamori and Allen about earthquake recurrence time and average stress drop revealed a very interesting relation: earthquakes with longer recurrence times have higher average stress drops. They attributed the difference in stress drop to the difference in long-term average slip rate. To interpret their result in terms of the healing effect, we simulated earthquake recurrence with a one-dimensional mass-spring model, incorporating a recently developed rate-and-state dependent friction law for different loading rates and heterogeneous strength distributions. We first calculated the stress drop and recurrence time as functions of loading rate for a homogenous fault model. We found that the stress drop increases up to 30% when the loading rate decreases from 10 cm/yr to 0.01 mm/yr. Thus, the observed great variability of stress drop, from a few bars to a few hundred bars, which is obtained by replotting the data of Kanamori and Allen in the form of stress drop versus long-term slip rate, may not be attributable to the healing effect alone. Our numerical simulation shows that the variability may be due primarily to the spatial heterogeneity of strength on the fault. Our simulation also suggests that of the two empirical laws that were inferred from the same laboratory friction data, called the power law and the logarithmic law by Shimamoto and Logan, the former can explain the observed relation between stress drop and slip rate better than can the latter, at least for strike-slip fault. The logarithmic law is an earlier and simpler version of the rate-state-dependent friction law. 相似文献
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James H. Dieterich 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,126(2-4):589-617
Current methods for calculation of long-term probabilities for the recurrence of large earthquakes on specific fault segments are based upon models of the faulting process that implicitly assume constant stress rates during the interval separating earthquakes and instantaneous failure at a critical stress threshold. However, observations indicate that the process of stress recovery following an earthquake involves rate variations at all time scales in addition to stress steps caused by nearby earthquakes. Additionally, the existence of foreshocks, aftershocks and possible precursory processes suggest that there may be significant time dependence of the earthquake nucleation process. A method for determining the conditional probabilities for earthquake occurrence under conditions of irregular stressing is developed that could be useful at all time scales including those pertinent to short-and intermediate-term prediction. Used with models for earthquake occurrence at a stress threshold, the addition of variable stressing introduces a simple scaling of the conditional probabilities by stress level and stress rate. A model for the time-dependent nucleation of earthquake slip has been proposed recently that is based upon laboratory observations of fault strength. This failure criterion results in large but relatively short duration changes in the probability of earthquake recurrence particularly following stress steps. Applied to populations of earthquakes the models predicts a 1/t decay of seismicity following stress steps as observed for aftershocks and for frequency of foreshock-mainshock pairs. The model suggests that variations of seismicity rates of small earthquakes in the nucleation zone of the expected earthquake directly indicate variations in probability of recurrence of the large earthquake. 相似文献
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利用分布活动断层带的GNSS位移时空序列,基于卡尔曼滤波和主成分分析,研究了一套集GNSS时空噪声处理与断层瞬态无震蠕滑信息时空分布检测于一体的方法.基于一阶高斯马尔科夫理论表述了瞬时蠕滑信息与时空噪声的运动状态方程,通过卡尔曼滤波提高了时间域信噪比;根据断层形变高空间相关性的特点,通过主成分时空分析,提高了空间域信噪比.模拟试验结果表明,当断层滑移引起的地表位移大小至少与噪声水平相当时,均可检测得到断层瞬态无震蠕滑时空分布及其滑移特征.以Cascadia慢滑移事件为例,清晰地检测到了两次无震蠕滑信息,分析其蠕滑特征与相关研究结果吻合.通过对滇西2011—2013年陆态网GNSS连续站数据的处理,分析发现了期间有微弱的震后余滑信息,主要表现在澜沧江断裂、红河断裂和小江断裂的南段.其时空分布特征与2011年3月24日的缅甸MW7.2级地震相对应.因此,得出了2011—2013年期间云南地区的断层活动可能与缅甸地震带有着密切的关系的结论. 相似文献
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基于大量岩石力学实验,Dieterich和其他研究者(Dieterich,1978;Ruina,1983)首先提出了描述岩石摩擦过程的速率-状态摩擦定律(R-S摩擦定律).如今R-S摩擦定律已成为研究地震成核等地震演化机制的有效手段.Dieterich(1992,1994)最早提出了描述受静态剪应力扰动后断层失稳时间提前或推后的余震触发机制的解析模型.现在Dieterich模型已经成为解释余震随时间衰减规律的Omori定律等地震观测现象的有力工具.与之相对应,广泛使用的Coulomb应力失稳模型也可以给出断层受到静态剪应力扰动后,断层失稳时间的提前和推后量.Dieterich模型和Coulomb应力失稳模型基于不同的物理方法,所以在进行地震危险性评估时,二者均有各自的局限性.本文利用R-S摩擦定律控制的1-D弹簧-滑块模型,模拟计算了理论地震循环以及在不同静态剪切应力扰动下,失稳时间的提前和推后量的变化情况,然后将计算得到的时间提前和推后量分别与Dieterich模型和Coulomb模型的相应计算结果进行了定量化对比和差异性分析,并给出了相应的解释.数值模拟结果显示,对于R-S摩擦定律在参数不变的条件下,断层模型失稳时间的提前和推后量的大小强烈依赖于静态剪应力扰动的大小和作用时间,而且绝对值相同的正、负向静态剪应力扰动造成的失稳时间的提前和推后量的变化情况并不完全一致.在震后松弛/滑移阶段和闭锁阶段,时间提前和推后量是常数,且随静态剪应力扰动绝对值的增大而增大,两者的比值接近于1.0,这与Dieterich模型和Coulomb模型的结果是一致的,相应的差值小于两模型结果的10%.而在自加速阶段,模拟计算结果则存在与Dieterich模型和Coulomb模型结果不同的特征.首先,在自加速阶段模拟计算结果均偏离Coulomb模型,而且时间提前和推后量的比值小于1.0,相异于Coulomb模型的论断.不过当受到正向静态剪应力扰动后,Dieterich模型的结果和模拟计算结果是一致的,最大相差量不超过Dieterich模型结果的7%,可接近0.对于负向静态剪应力扰动,当其绝对值较小时,Dieterich模型的结果很接近模拟计算结果,相差量不超过该结果的14%.但对于绝对值较大的情况,模拟计算结果远大于Dieterich模型的结果,最大可达Dieterich模型结果的35倍,这是由于负向静态剪应力扰动后使得Ω=δ·θ/dc1的条件不再成立,进而使得Dieterich模型不再成立.总的来说,与模拟计算相比Dieterich模型可以很好地描述1-D断层受扰后失稳时间提前和推后量的变化情况,并且可以体现出正、负静态剪切应力扰动后失稳时间提前量和推后量变化的差异性,而Coulomb模型则不能完整地给出受到静态剪应力扰动后断层失稳时间提前或推后的估计值. 相似文献