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1.
Site-specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map of Himachal Pradesh,India. Part II. Hazard Estimation
This article presents site-specific probable seismic hazard of the Himachal Pradesh province, situated in a seismically active region of northwest Himalaya, using the ground motion relations presented in a companion article. Seismic recurrence parameters for all the documented probable sources are established from an updated earthquake catalogue. The contour maps of probable spectral acceleration at 0, 0.2, and 1 s (5% damping) are presented for 475 and 2475 years return periods. Also, the hazard curves and uniform hazard response spectrums are presented for all the important cities in this province. Results indicate that the present codal provision underestimates the seismic hazard at cities of Bilaspur, Shimla, Hamirpur, Chamba, Mandi, and Solan. In addition, regions near Bilaspur and Chamba exhibit higher hazard levels than what is reported in literature. 相似文献
2.
国家重点研发计划项目《海域地震区划关键技术研究》已实施3年，进入项目结题阶段，已形成海域地震区划方法与技术体系，研究成果为即将开展的中国海域地震区划图编制工作提供技术支撑。项目组分析和探讨了海域地震区划研究基础与存在的问题，结合所关注的关键科学和技术问题，介绍和分析了主要研究成果和进展，包括海域断裂活动性探测和地震构造、中国海域与邻区地震目录及地震活动特征、海域地震动特性及衰减模型、海域场地条件及对地震动的影响、海域地震区划图编制方法与技术等；编制了一系列相关图件、数据库和计算软件，包括中国东部和南部海域活动构造框架图、3个典型海域（位于黄海、台湾海峡、南海内）地震构造图、中国海域及邻区统一地震目录、中国海域潜在震源区划分图与考虑不确定性的对比方案及考虑三维潜源模型的地震危险性分析软件；建立了中国海域及邻区俯冲带地震构造模型、基于地震动观测记录和地震模拟数据的南海俯冲带板内地震动衰减关系、利用强震动加速度记录结合宽频带速度记录的俯冲带板缘与板内地震的地震动长周期反应谱衰减关系，提出了以场地覆盖土层厚度及土层等效剪切波速为指标的大陆架场地分类方法及相应的场地地震动参数调整方案；最后形成了海域地震区划图编制原则、技术要求和技术方法体系，完成了海域地震区划图编制规程（初稿）的编制工作，基本完成了3个典型海域地震区划图的编制工作。 相似文献
3.
2020年10月22日11时03分37秒四川省绵阳市北川县发生MS4.7地震,四川强震动台网与预警烈度速报台网在震区建成较密集的台站,获取了532组三分量加速度记录,有助于开展区域地震动衰减和地震动特征研究.本文对强震记录进行常规处理后计算出强震动记录的相关参数,利用克里金插值方法得到地震动峰值加速度PGA和峰值速度PGV的空间分布图,长轴呈北西—南东方向.分析强震动记录PGA、PGV随距离的衰减规律,与常用衰减关系预测值进行对比,此次地震PGA的衰减特性与俞言祥和汪素云(2006)提出的中国西部地区水平向基岩加速度衰减关系有较好的一致性.北川MS4.7地震获得的密集强震动记录为建立区域衰减关系,以及开展基于经验格林函数方法(EGFM)再现大震强地震动场展布等研究提供了重要的数据支撑. 相似文献
4.
中强地震活动区地震动衰减关系的确定 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
地震动衰减关系是影响地震安全性评价特别是地震区划结果的重要因素.我国现行的地震动衰减关系主要是依据6级以上地震的地面运动资料得到的,并没有考虑中强地震的衰减特性.为此,文中利用现有的烈度资料和其他可供参考的研究成果来建立我国中强地震活动区的地震动衰减关系.收集了我国华中、华南、东北等地区的51次地震的烈度等震线资料,运用单随机变量加权最小二乘回归法得到中强地震活动区烈度衰减关系.然后以美国西部地区为参考地区,运用缺乏地震动参数的地震动估计方法-地震对映射法得到中强地震活动区峰值加速度和有效峰值加速度衰减关系.最后,通过与我国强地震区和中强地震区已有的烈度衰减关系和地震动衰减关系的对比,验证了得出的我国中强地震活动区烈度衰减关系和地震动衰减关系的合理性. 相似文献
5.
2012年5月28日河北省唐山市古冶区与滦县交界发生4.8级地震, 国家强震动台网中心在河北、 天津和北京的94个强震动台站记录到了本次地震的加速度。 本文给出了获取记录的强震动台站分布及强震动记录结果, 统计了强震动记录数量随震中距的变化, 给出了3个较小震中距台站记录到的加速度时程; 绘制了空间地震动峰值加速度等值线图及周期0.2 s、 2.0 s加速度反应谱值的等值线, 发现峰值加速度等值线与长周期加速度反应谱等值线极值分布具有明显地域差异, 分析认为是由于厚沉积层对长周期地震动具有放大作用造成的。 通过强震动记录与适用于本区的三个衰减关系对比, 分析了此次地震的峰值加速度衰减特征, 同时研究了周期0.2 s、 2.0 s加速度反应谱值的衰减特征, 周期2.0 s反应谱值随震中距的衰减与衰减关系能较好地对应, 然而在震中距100～130 km沉积层较厚的集中地区, 表现出了实际记录较衰减关系值偏大的现象, 认为同样是由于厚沉积层对地震动加速度反应谱长周期的放大作用导致的。 研究了震中距差别不大的情况下, 场地类型与沉积层厚度对反应谱特征周期的影响, 对比基岩台站与软弱地基土层台站的强震动记录反应谱, 发现软弱土层台站的土层对地震动有一定的放大作用, 导致中长周期地震动被放大, 对比位于沉积层较薄的隆起区台站与位于沉积层较厚的凹陷区台站强震动记录反应谱, 发现厚的沉积层不仅对反应谱长周期有放大的作用, 同时也会使得反应谱特征周期值变大。 相似文献
6.
P-alert台网实时数据对地震预警及烈度速报和工程地震研究都是重要的补充,处理分析这些数据对客观衡量P-alert台网数据质量和数据用途有重要意义。对2016年2月6日台湾美浓ML6.4地震P-alert台网获取的记录进行了处理和初步分析,统计分析显示100gal以上加速度记录有112条,200gal以上加速度记录有33条,400gal以上加速度记录有7条,东西向最大峰值加速度为466.4gal,南北向最大峰值加速度为498.4gal,竖直向最大峰值加速度为258.6gal,最大仪器地震烈度为9.5度。竖直向峰值加速度和峰值速度比水平向峰值加速度和峰值速度衰减快。峰值加速度比峰值速度衰减快,观测峰值加速度和峰值速度与台湾西南地区峰值加速度和峰值速度衰减公式比较一致。计算得到了近场台站的永久位移,显示P-alert台网绝大多数永久位移在1cm到5cm之间,最大永久位移达8cm。 相似文献
7.
Seismic hazard assessment of Western Coastal Province of Saudi Arabia:deterministic approach 
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下载免费PDF全文 Seismic hazard assessment is carried out by utilizing deterministic approach to evaluate the maximum expected earthquake ground motions along the Western Coastal Province of Saudi Arabia. The analysis is accomplished by incorporating seismotectonic source model,determination of earthquake magnitude(Mmax), set of appropriate ground motion predictive equations(GMPE), and logic tree sequence. The logic tree sequence is built up to assign weight to ground motion scaling relationships. Contour maps of ground acceleration are generated at different spectral periods. These maps show that the largest ground motion values are emerged in northern and southern regions of the western coastal province in Saudi Arabia in comparison with the central region. 相似文献
8.
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Thailand 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Teraphan Ornthammarath Pennung Warnitchai Kawin Worakanchana Saeed Zaman Ragnar Sigbj?rnsson Carlo Giovanni Lai 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2011,9(2):367-394
A set of probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Thailand has been derived using procedures developed for the latest US National
Seismic Hazard Maps. In contrast to earlier hazard maps for this region, which are mostly computed using seismic source zone
delineations, the presented maps are based on the combination of smoothed gridded seismicity, crustal-fault, and subduction
source models. Thailand’s composite earthquake catalogue is revisited and expanded, covering a study area limited by 0°–30°N
Latitude and 88°–110°E Longitude and the instrumental period from 1912 to 2007. The long-term slip rates and estimates of
earthquake size from paleoseismological studies are incorporated through a crustal fault source model. Furthermore, the subduction
source model is used to model the megathrust Sunda subduction zones, with variable characteristics along the strike of the
faults. Epistemic uncertainty is taken into consideration by the logic tree framework incorporating basic quantities, such
as different source modelling, maximum cut-off magnitudes and ground motion prediction equations. The ground motion hazard
map is presented over a 10 km grid in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.2, 1.0, and 2.0 undamped
natural periods and a 5% critical damping ratio for 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The presented maps
give expected ground motions that are based on more extensive data sources than applied in the development of previous maps.
The main findings are that northern and western Thailand are subjected to the highest hazard. The largest contributors to
short- and long-period ground motion hazard in the Bangkok region are from the nearby active faults and Sunda subduction zones,
respectively. 相似文献
9.
The New Seismic Zoning Map of China was prepared from 1987 to 1990 and officially promulgated in 1991.In comparison with the previous two seismic zoning maps prepared in 1957 and 1977,some new methods were applied to upgrade the method currently used for seismic hazard analysis.First,a probabilistic method was used instead of the deterministic analysis was used for previous mapping.Second,by taking advantages of the long history of historical seismic data in China,the nonhomogeneity of seismicity both in space and in time has been fully considered and hence the over-and/or underestimation of seismic hazard could be avoided.Third,the results of middle-and long-term earthquake prediction based on tectonic evidence have been incorporated into seismic hazard analysis.In addition,the attenuation laws for both intensity and peak acceleration of strong motion as the mapping parameters are also presented.Finally,an evaluation of the New Seismic Map and its effect on engineering application,such as aseismic desi 相似文献
10.
Earthquake hazard in Marmara Region, Turkey 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
M. Erdik M. Demircioglu K. Sesetyan E. Durukal B. Siyahi 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2004,24(8):605-631
Earthquake hazard in the Marmara Region, Turkey has been investigated using time-independent probabilistic (simple Poissonian) and time-dependent probabilistic (renewal) models. The study culminated in hazard maps of the Marmara Region depicting peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations (SA)'s at 0.2 and 1 s periods corresponding to 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. The historical seismicity, the tectonic models and the known slip rates along the faults constitute the main data used in the assignment. Based on recent findings it has been possible to provide a fault segmentation model for the Marmara Sea. For the main Marmara Fault this model essentially identifies fault segments for different structural, tectonic and geometrical features and historical earthquake occurrences. The damage distribution and pattern of the historical earthquakes have been carefully correlated with this fault segmentation model. The inter-event time period between characteristic earthquakes in these segments is consistently estimated by dividing the seismic slip estimated from the earthquake catalog by the GPS-derived slip rate of 22±3 mm/yr. The remaining segments in the eastern and southern Marmara region are also identified using recent geological, geophysical studies and historical earthquakes. The model assumes that seismic energy along the segments is released by characteristic earthquakes. For the probabilistic studies characteristic earthquake based recurrence relationships are used. Assuming normal distribution of inter-arrival times of characteristic earthquakes, the ‘mean recurrence time’, ‘covariance’ and the ‘time since last earthquake’ are developed for each segment. For the renewal model, the conditional probability for each fault segment is calculated from the mean recurrence interval of the characteristic earthquake, the elapsed time since the last major earthquake and the exposure period. The probabilities are conditional since they change as a function of the time elapsed since the last earthquake. For the background earthquake activity, a spatially smoothed seismicity is determined for each cell of a grid composed of cells of size 0.005°×0.005°. The ground motions are determined for soft rock (NEHRP B/C boundary) conditions. Western US-based attenuation relationships are utilized, since they show a good correlation with the attenuation characteristics of ground motion in the Marmara region. The possibility, that an event ruptures several fault segments (i.e. cascading), is also taken into account and investigated by two possible models of cascading. Differences between Poissonian and renewal models, and also the effect of cascading have been discussed with the help of PGA ratio maps. 相似文献
11.
Fourier-amplitude spectrum is one of the most important parameters describing earthquake ground motion, and it is widely used for strong ground motion prediction and seismic hazard estimation. The relationships between Fourier-acceleration spectra, earthquake magnitude and distance were analysed for different seismic regions (the Caucasus and Taiwan island) on the basis of ground motion recordings of small to moderate (3.5≤ML≤6.5) earthquakes. It has been found that the acceleration spectra of the most significant part of the records, starting from S-wave arrival, can be modelled accurately by the Brune's “ω-squared” point-source model. Parameters of the model are found to be region-dependent. Peak ground accelerations and response spectra for condition of rock sites were calculated using stochastic simulation technique and obtained models of source spectra. The modelled ground-motion parameters are compared with those predicted by recent empirical attenuation relationship for California. 相似文献
12.
Seismic hazard and risk in the Beijing?CTianjin?CTangshan, China, area were estimated from 500-year intensity observations. First, we digitized the intensity observations (maps) using ArcGIS with a cell size of 0.1?×?0.1°. Second, we performed a statistical analysis on the digitized intensity data, determined an average b value (0.39), and derived the intensity?Cfrequency relationship (hazard curve) for each cell. Finally, based on a Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, we calculated seismic risk in terms of a probability of I????7, 8, or 9 in 50?years. We also calculated the corresponding 10 percent probability of exceedance of these intensities in 50?years. The advantages of assessing seismic hazard and risk from intensity records are that (1) fewer assumptions (i.e., earthquake source and ground motion attenuation) are made, and (2) site-effect is included. Our study shows that the area has high seismic hazard and risk. Our study also suggests that current design peak ground acceleration or intensity for the area may not be adequate. 相似文献
13.
We collect 1974 broad-band velocity records of 94 earthquakes (ML=2.8~4.9, △=13~462 km) from seven stations of the Fujian Seismic Network from March 1999 to March 2007. Using real-time simulation, we obtain the corresponding acceleration and then adopt different models to analyze the seismic data. As a result, a new attenuation relationship between PGA and PGV of the small and moderate earthquakes on bedrock site in Fujian region is established. The Yongchun earthquake occurred recently verifies the attenuation relationship well. This paper provides a new approach for studying the ground motion attenuation relationship using velocity records. 相似文献
14.
利用《中国地震动参数区划图》采用的地震动参数衰减关系,以及《中国地震动参数区划图》中地震动峰值加速度和地震动加速度反应谱特征周期反推不同设防烈度和设计地震分组对应的震级和震中距,再根据《建筑抗震设计规范》中各设防水准的峰值加速度确定对应的震级和震中距,进而根据地震动强度包线参数与震级和震中距关系计算地震动强度包线参数的取值,为基于强度包线函数生成人工地震动提供参考,并讨论强度包线参数的取值规律：(1)随着设防烈度的提高,加速度时程曲线上升段持续时间t1和平稳段持续时间ts减小,下降段衰减指数c增大;(2)随着地震水准和设计地震分组的提高,加速度时程曲线上升段持续时间t1和平稳段持续时间ts增加,下降段衰减指数c减小;(3)在生成人工地震动时,除考虑峰值加速度和设计地震分组影响外,还需要考虑设防烈度影响。 相似文献
15.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Nepal 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The seismic ground motion hazard for Nepal has been estimated using a probabilistic approach. A catalogue of earthquakes has been compiled for Nepal and the surrounding region （latitude 26% N and 31.7% N and longitude 79° E and 90° E） from 1255 to 2011. The distribution of catalogued earthquakes, together with available geological and tectonic information were used to delineate twenty-three seismic source seismic source information and probabilistic earthquake hazard prediction relationship, peak ground accelerations （PGAs） have zones in Nepal and the surrounding region. By using the parameters in conjunction with a selected ground motion been calculated at bedrock level with 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The estimated PGA values are in the range of 0.07-0.16 g, 0.21 0.62 g, and 0.38-1.1 g for 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. The resulting ground motion maps show different characteristics of PGA distribution, i.e., high hazard in the far-western and eastern sections, and low hazard in southern Nepal. The quantified PGA values at bedrock level provide information for microzonation studies in different parts of the country. 相似文献
16.
Regional ground‐motion prediction equations for amplitude‐, frequency response‐, and duration‐based parameters for Greece 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Konstantinos Chousianitis Vincenzo Del Gaudio Pierpaolo Pierri G.‐Akis Tselentis 《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(11):2252-2274
Although all of the main properties of a ground motion cannot be captured through a single parameter, a number of different engineering parameters has been proposed that are able to reflect either one or more ground‐motion characteristics concurrently. For many of these parameters, especially regarding Greece, there are relatively few or no predictive models. In this context, we present a set of new regionally‐calibrated equations for the prediction of the geometric mean of the horizontal components of 10 amplitude‐, frequency response‐, and duration‐based parameters for shallow crustal earthquakes. These equations supersede previous empirical relationships for Greece since their applicability range for magnitude, and epicentral distance has been extended down to Mw 4 and up to 200 km, respectively, the incorporation of a term accounting for anelastic attenuation has been investigated, while their development was based on a ground‐motion dataset spanning from 1973 to 2014. For all ground‐motion parameters, we provide alternative optimal equations relative to the availability of information on the different explanatory variables. In all velocity‐based and contrary to the acceleration‐based parameters, the anelastic attenuation coefficient was found statistically insignificant when it was combined with the geometric decay and the coefficient accounting for saturation with distance. In the regressions where the geometric decay coefficient simultaneously incorporated the contribution of anelastic attenuation, its increase was found to be much less considerable in the velocity‐based than in the acceleration‐based parameters, implying a stronger effect of anelastic attenuation on the parameters that are defined via the acceleration time history. 相似文献
17.
Seismotectonic zonation studies in the Tell Atlas of Algeria, a branch of the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, provide a valuable input for deterministic seismic hazard calculations. We delineate a number of seismogenic zones from causal relationships established between geological structures and earthquakes and compile a working seismic catalogue mainly from readily available sources. To this catalogue, for a most rational and best-justified hazard analysis, we add estimates of earthquake size translated from active faulting characteristics. We assess the regional seismic hazard using a deterministic procedure based on the computation of complete synthetic seismograms (up to 1 Hz) by the modal summation technique. As a result, we generate seismic hazard maps of maximum velocity, maximum displacement, and design ground acceleration that blend information from geology, historical seismicity and observational seismology, leading to better estimates of the earthquake hazard throughout northern Algeria. Our analysis and the resulting maps illustrate how different the estimate of seismic hazard is based primarily on combined geologic and seismological data with respect to the one for which only information from earthquake catalogues has been used. 相似文献
18.
1999年9月21日（当地时间）台湾集集7.6级地震是一个逆断层型地震．用回归分析法对台湾集集地震的加速度峰值数据进行分析，得出了这次地震的水平与垂直向的加速度峰值衰减关系．从残差分布上看，位于断层上盘和下盘上的加速度峰值与从衰减关系所得到的结果相比存在不同的系统偏差，断层上盘地表的加速度峰值较高，而下盘地表的加速度峰值较低．从这次地震的加速度峰值分布等值线图上也可以看出，加速度峰值的分布相对于断层呈现明显的不对称性，上盘衰减较慢而下盘衰减较快．在近断层强地面运动研究、地震危险性分析、设定地震研究与震害预测等工作中，应考虑可能地震的震源机制特点，以便使所用的衰减模型更能反映不同地震环境地区的地震动分布特征． 相似文献
19.
This paper presents the results of a review of earthquake data and a study of seismic hazard for Hong Kong. A region of about 660 km × 660 km around Hong Kong was selected for the study. In this study, the earthquake information available for the region was reviewed, and where possible, earthquake magnitudes were calculated. Since there is no strong motion record for any earthquake within the region, Joyner and Boore's attenuation law1 has been used for the analysis. The results show that the seismic hazard in Hong Kong is relatively small, but because of the uncertainty inherent in the assumed attenuation relationship, accurate prediction of peak ground acceleration is not possible. 相似文献