共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 281 毫秒
1.
Through analysis of natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting, the relationship between the natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting （early warning） has been discussed. Regarding the natural attributes of earthquake forecasting, it only attempts to forecast the magnitude, location and occurrence time of future earthquake based on the analysis of observational data and relevant theories and taking into consideration the present understanding of seismogeny and earthquake generation. It need not consider the consequences an earthquake forecast involves, and its purpose is to check out the level of scientific understanding of earthquakes. In respect of the social aspect of earthquake forecasting, people also focus on the consequence that the forecasting involves, in addition to its natural aspect, such as the uncertainty of earthquake prediction itself, the impact of earthquake prediction, and the earthquake resistant capability of structures （buildings）, lifeline works, etc. In a word, it highlights the risk of earthquake forecasting and tries to mitigate the earthquake hazard as much as possible. In this paper, the authors also discuss the scientific and social challenges faced in earthquake prediction and analyze preliminarily the meanings and content of earthquake early warning. 相似文献
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In the prediction process of large-scale earthquake damage occurred in urban and rural regions,new models and approaches,which are different from traditional ones,should be adopted to rapidly predict earthquake damage. This article utilizes sampled population and buildings data that is easily available from the statistical database to conduct vulnerability analysis of buildings on the basis of earthquake damage of existing urban buildings in an analogical way,so as to provide a relation model between population data and disaster losses. In virtue of this model,the average vulnerability matrix of buildings of different structures in Fujian Province is established,the matrix adjustment coefficient of different decades is developed in accordance with the economic conditions,and the rapid evaluation system is set up as well. The result shows: this evaluation model,based on the population statistical data has merits as small investment,automatic data prediction,regular updates,as well as the advantage of easy accessibility. 相似文献
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Though the forecast and prediction of earthquakes is a commonly accepted difficult problem in science, the step towards the exploration and knowledge of the generation and occurrence of earthquakes has never stopped. It has strong scientific exploration nature and great social efficacy in disaster reduction. For this reason, it has always been the object and motivation pursued assiduously by earthquake researchers. It is beyond doubt that the study of seismicity is still one of the important information sources that have historical records of the longest time and most abundant earthquake cases that can be testified. For many years, with the progress of study in this aspect and the unceasing increase of study methods, there have been not less than tens of methods that can be used to describe theseismicity characteristics from different angles. It is of great importance to determine from the numerous methods those ones that are relatively independent and to understand how many dimensions are there to restrict the complexsystem of earthquake generation and occurrence. Taking these as a referential basis, we would be able to identify the quantities that restrict the study of the seismogenic system, to raise the scientific value and rigorousness of prediction and forecast, and to get rid of the trouble of repeated information superposition. 相似文献
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Zhu Lingren Su Naiqin and Yang MalingSeismological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Urumqi China 《中国地震研究》1998,(4)
A strong earthquake swarm including 7 earthquakes with M≥6.0 occurred in Jiashi, Xinjiang region from January to April, 1997, which is rare for intraplate seismicity. They occurred in Tarim Basin which is relatively stable, has no discovered surface rupture and where the deep-seated tectonics are not clear. The Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Region has made three successful impending predictions for the strong aftershocks and succeeding earthquakes in Jiashi. The injuries and deaths of people have been greatly reduced because of effective measures taken by the local government, and the social and economic results are remarkable. The article introduces a summary of the strong earthquake swarm and the main processes of the prediction, sums up the scientific bases of an impending prediction, and shows that the occurrence of the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm revealed some important scientific problems which should be studied further. The practice of the Jiashi earthquake prediction indicates again that 相似文献
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Strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
In order to effectively improve numerical prediction level by using current models and data, the strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction (DAP) is deeply studied in the present paper. A new idea to predict the prediction errors of dynamical model on the basis of historical analogue information is put forward so as to transform the dynamical prediction problem into the estimation problem of prediction errors. In terms of such an idea, a new prediction method of final analogue correction of errors (FACE) is developed. Furthermore, the FACE is applied to extra-seasonal prediction experiments on an operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. Prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation show that the FACE can to some extent reduce prediction errors, recover prediction variances, and improve prediction skills. Besides, sensitive experiments also show that predictions based on the FACE are evidently influenced by the number of analogues, analogue-selected variables and analogy metric. 相似文献
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Liu Yaowei 《中国地震研究》2007,21(1):16-32
This paper presents a review of the development of scientific research and practice of earthquake underground fluid in China during the last 40 years, summaries early constructive research and primary achievements in this field. The science of earthquake underground fluid is closely correlated with earthquake monitoring and prediction, such as innovations in observation techniques and theoretical methods, and analysis of diversified parameters and research into predictive methods. The historical evolution of observation networks for underground fluid indicates that the demand for strong earthquake monitoring and prediction has become the driving force of the construction and development of the observation network. The development of observation techniques represents the trend based on multiform measurement, syntheses, and digitization. The study results of underground fluid theory and precursory mechanisms suggest that the precursory model, numerical simulation and in-door or field experimental research are the main technological approaches promoting innovation. Research results of earthquake forecast methods use physics based forecast techniques and the ideas of combination of usability and scientific advance. It has been proved by forecast practice that studying underground fluid is a very important subject in earthquake prediction on the Chinese mainland. Finally, the primary work and technical criterion on underground fluid are introduced, and some major scientific issues and development trends in different historical stages are summarized. 相似文献
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Cai Jingguan Lei Suhua and Zhang Xiling Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province Kunming China 《中国地震研究》1996,(3)
In this paper,the process of dynamic variation of the wave velocity ratio that occurred at a single station,such as Lancang,Tengchong,and Eryuan stations,8 years before the Lancang-Gengma earthquakes(Ms=7.6 and 7.2),is studied by applying the synthetic method as a whole.It is found that the moderately strong and strong earthquakes 250 km away that occurred since 1983 may lead to mutation anomalies of the wave velocity ratio in the Lancang region.The mutation amplitude is increased with the approaching time and distance of a large event.The reliability of mutation data for the wave velocity ratio has been demonstrated in many ways.The application of mutation of the wave velocity ratio to earthquake prediction and its physical explanation are discussed. 相似文献
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XianMei Lang 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2008,51(5):709-720
It is of great social and scientific importance and also very difficult to make reliable prediction for dust weather frequency (DWF) in North China. In this paper, the correlation between spring DWF in Beijing and Tianjin observation stations, taken as examples in North China, and seasonally averaged surface air temperature, precipitation, Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, South Oscillation, near surface meridional wind and Eurasian westerly index is respectively calculated so as to construct a prediction model for spring DWF in North China by using these climatic factors. Two prediction models, i.e. model-I and model-II, are then set up respectively based on observed climate data and the 32-year (1970 -2001) extra-seasonal hindcast experiment data as reproduced by the nine-level Atmospheric General Circulation Model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP9L-AGCM). It is indicated that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted DWF reaches 0.933 in the model-I, suggesting a high prediction skill one season ahead. The corresponding value is high up to 0.948 for the subsequent model-II, which involves synchronous spring climate data reproduced by the IAP9L-AGCM relative to the model-I. The model-II can not only make more precise prediction but also can bring forward the lead time of real-time prediction from the model-I’s one season to half year. At last, the real-time predictability of the two models is evaluated. It follows that both the models display high prediction skill for both the interannual variation and linear trend of spring DWF in North China, and each is also featured by different advantages. As for the model-II, the prediction skill is much higher than that of original approach by use of the IAP9L-AGCM alone. Therefore, the prediction idea put forward here should be popularized in other regions in China where dust weather occurs frequently. 相似文献
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Watershed science:Bridging new advances in hydrological science with good management of river basins
<正>Watershed science traditionally refers to the themes of hydrology and water resource management.Watershed science has been experiencing a rapid evolution that thrives on a forceful superimposition of multi-discipline and innovative earth observing and information techniques.The water and its interactions with other systems in a watershed is increasingly becoming a focus in scientific communities,and several new disciplines such as ecohydrology,ecoeconomics,environmental hy- 相似文献
10.
《中国地震研究》1994,(2)
The earth is an enormous open system and the gas-releasing phenomenon of the crust is the major means of exchange of matters and energy at different crustal depth.Therefore,a powerful gas-releasing channel is actually a "window" to understand the subterranean physical and chemical variations as well as stress-strain changes.The releasing places,quantities and ways obtained by systematically observing and recording can reveal the pressure variation and opening state of channels in the crust,and furthermore provide important information for earthquake prediction,tectonic activity and monitoring of volcanic activity.The fracture-gas measurement has been applied widely to earthquake sciences and has played an important role.The authors introduced systematically the application situation and preliminary achievements in China,and pointed out that though this technique is at the beginning stage and not very sophisticated but its capacities for being easy-carrying,fast-operating and inexpensive,makes for a prom 相似文献
11.
朱传镇 《地震地磁观测与研究》1996,17(1):15-19
１９９５年１月１７日，日本关西兵库县南部发生７．２级地震（阪神地震），神户一带遭受巨大损失，人员伤亡惨重，这次地震是自唐山地震之后近２０年来，世界上最引人注目的一次地震事件。本文首先从地震预报的角度，简要地介绍了阪神地震前观测到的中短期前兆异常，包括震群活动、地震空区，水中氯离子浓度增加以及低频电磁辐射等，分析了阪神地区的地震危险性，指出在中期预测圈定的强震危险区，加强短临预测的跟踪，是最佳地震对策，也是起到减轻地震灾害，取得实际御防效果的基础．同时提出推进工程抗震研究，发展城市抗震工程学，提高城市综合防御地震危害的必要性。最后，文中对近期我国东部震情作了简要分析，并对强化监测，努力捕捉短临前兆信息，提出了相应的建议。 相似文献
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我国地震综合预报方法研究的回顾与展望 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：4
系统介绍了我国历次地震预报攻关研究中综合预报研究的主要进展，从中可以看出我国地震综合预报研究的科学思路和方法的不断发展，同时还对今后我国地震综合预报研究应解决的科学问题及解决方法进行了阐述。 相似文献
13.
本文立足于我国地震预报的实践及当前地震预报的科学水平,提出了推进我国地震预报进步的几点建议：①继续坚持并强化现行地震预报管理体制,不断改进经验性和统计预报的方法,努力作好震情监测预报工作,为防震减灾再做出一些有减灾实效的预报。②制订中国地震监测预报中长期科学发展规划,努力提高我国地震预报研究的科学水平。③探索地震动力(物理)预报的途径。④培养一流的地震预报科技人才,开展地震预报的国际合作研究。 相似文献
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对张北6.2级地震预测的回顾和再研究 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
对张北6.2级地震在测震学前兆图像、预测回顾及总结的基础上,对部分反映较好的测震学预测指标进行了比较系统的预报效能检验和评估,进一步确定和筛选出部分测震学预测方法的最佳三要素预测指标,为各预测指标的三要素界定和预测效能提供了定量的参考依据。 对各种预报方法进行比较系统和客观的预报效能检验和评估,确定和筛选预测方法的最佳三要素预测指标,这不仅是地震预测预报逐步向科学、客观、严谨和实用化方向迈进的重要途径,而且是探索以震源物理为基础和孕震阶段为依据的多学科异常有机结合的综合概率预测的必要前题。 相似文献
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我国地形变观测预报地震的现状及对地震预测问题的思考 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文展示了我国地形变观测的状况,讨论了以地形变观测预报地震的基本思路及应用情况,探讨了地震预测面临的困难及地形变观测须解决的技术问题。最后,作者认为,地震预报目前或今后很长一段时间都将是以观测为主的试验性科学,物理统计分析方法是研究地震孕育动力学过程或进行预测的最具有潜力的途径之一。 相似文献