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地震灾害损失预测研究 总被引：16，自引：4，他引：16
尹之潜 《地震工程与工程振动》1991,11(4):87-96
本文提出了一个地震灾害和经济损失预测的概率方法。根据一个地区的地震危险性资料,利用这个方法可以计算:1.一座建筑在T年内发生J级破坏的概率和在给定强度的地震作用下发生J级破坏的概率;2.一个地区在T年内某类建筑发生J级破坏的概率和在给定强度的地震作用下某类建筑发生J级破坏的概率;3.地震造成的直接损失、人员伤亡和无家可归人员数。 相似文献
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提出了一种地震预警信息可靠度检验方法. 针对地震预警系统对信息的高度时效性及准确性要求, 并结合其应用特点, 从地震动记录信噪比、 特征参数相容性、 特征参数协调性及地震预警定位结果可靠性等4个方面对地震预警信息的综合可靠度进行探讨, 并分别提出了相应的可靠度定量计算方法. 利用日本KiK-net台网记录的444个地震事件共4737条三分向加速度记录对上述4个指标参数及综合可靠度指标参数的验证结果表明, 采用本方法有助于提高地震预警信息发布的准确性和可靠性, 减少“漏报”及“误报”事件的发生. 相似文献
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地震预警系统近年来在国际上日益引起人们的重视,它不仅可以减少地震造成的人员伤亡,而且还可为震后的紧急救援提供依据.叙述了地震预警的基本思想以及国内外地震预警系统的发展现状.简述了对城市构建地震预警系统的设想.认为,随着城市化进程的加快,人口更加密集,城市建设规模更加扩大,建立地震预警系统是客观形势的要求. 相似文献
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<正>地震预警在破坏性地震初至波到来前,提供几秒到几十秒的预警时间,可采取相应的应急措施。烈度速报在破坏性地震发生后数分钟之内,绘制出受灾地域的烈度图,快速评估人员伤亡和经济损失情况,并能够为应急救援和工程抢修提供决策依据。这两种技术有助于降低震后损失,减少次生灾害和人员伤亡。论文重点研究了地震预警与烈度速报两种技术的工 相似文献
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地震预警系统(EEW)中时间延迟制约着地震预警的时效性,缩短地震预警延迟时间能显著提高地震预报效能和应急反应能力。通过分析地震预警系统的延迟因素,分解从地震发生到预警信息发布过程的各个环节,计算出每个环节的时间延迟值,并对原地、异地和混合地震预警模式的地震预警水平、预警盲区半径进行对比,分析三种地震预警模式的时间延迟效应。结果显示,预警系统的时间延迟主要包含数据传输和数据处理两方面,实验室理论最少延迟时间为Δt=3.9s;主流预警系统平均延迟时间为Δt=14.3s;最先进的预警系统延迟只有Δt=8.7s。时间延迟同样影响着浅源地震(0~60km)的预警盲区半径,二者呈正相关性,当Δt=8.7s时,盲区半径最高达52.2km;当Δt=3.9s时,盲区半径最大只有23.4km。分析认为,有效缩短地震预警系统中的延迟时间,不仅能提高地震预警的时效性,同时能降低预警的盲区范围,对整个监测预报、预警和防灾减灾事业也有积极的推动作用。 相似文献
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2021年5月22日2时4分青海省玛多县发生M7.4地震。四川地震预警台网成功地处理并产出了本次地震预警结果。本文针对四川地震预警系统产出的8次地震预警处理结果及预警减灾效能进行了分析。此次地震震中距四川地震预警网55km,首台触发后12.19s发布首次预警处理结果,前5次预警处理结果用时距离首台触发时间均小于35s。与正式地震目录对比,第1次预警处理结果震中位置偏差为17.1km,震级偏差为-1.8,盲区半径为121km。随着参与计算台站数量增多,震中位置偏差和震级偏差不断减小,盲区半径不断增大。由于地震破裂时间长和台站限幅等原因,8次预警震级均偏小。本次地震预警的有效获益区为震中距121～324km的环形区域,此区域内减灾效能显著。本次地震预警结果表明,四川地震预警系统在本次地震中预警产出效果较好,对于网外大地震预警有重要参考意义。 相似文献
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本文从我国的地震预报科学水平出发,综合几个无震虚报和有震漏报的实例,分析了一次预报变成社会行动所需付出的代价,并与地震造成的经济损失进行了对比.由此提出要全面评价地震灾害及其预报的社会经济影响. 文中根据我国几次地震所造成经济损失的资料,绘制了地震震级与经济损失关系的曲线以及预报造成损失的曲线,并引进地震代价指数进行了讨论.文章认为,为了切实有效地减少人员伤亡和经济损失,地震预报的发布,对不同震级应有所区分,地震预报的震级应有一下限,依目前地震预报的水平,六级以下地震不宜向社会发布预报,相应地应加强抗震措施。 相似文献
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There are limitations in conventional earthquake loss procedures if attempts are made to apply these to assess the social and economic impacts of recent disastrous earthquakes. This paper addresses the need to develop an applicable model for estimating the significant increases of earthquake loss in mainland China. The casualties of earthquakes were studied first. The casualties of earthquakes are strongly related to earthquake strength, occurrence time (day or night) and the distribution of population in the affected area. Using data on earthquake casualties in mainland China from 1980 to 2000, we suggest a relationship between average losses of life and the magnitude of earthquakes. Combined with information on population density and earthquake occurrence times, we use these data to give a further relationship between the loss of life and factors like population density, intensity and occurrence time of the earthquake. Earthquakes that occurred from 2001 to 2003 were tested for the given relationships. This paper also explores the possibility of using a macroeconomic indicator, here GDP (Gross Domestic Product), to roughly estimate earthquake exposure in situations where no detailed insurance or similar inventories exist, thus bypassing some problems of the conventional method. 相似文献
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以各类房屋地震易损性分析结果为基础,结合各类房屋平均造价、室内固定资产和 室内停留人数的调查资料。用地震造成经济损失预测方法和人员伤亡经验公式,进行经济损 失预测和人员伤亡评估．最终给出在地震烈度ＶＩ至Ｘ度下的经济损失值和人员伤亡数． 相似文献
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基于1990—2020年地震灾害损失(包括经济损失、人员死亡和人员受伤)数据,分析了过去30年中国大陆地区地震灾害损失的时空分布特征。采用常规标准化方法分析了1990—2019年我国大陆地区地震灾害经济损失的时间分布,认为地震灾害在过去30年间逐渐由人身安全威胁向经济财产威胁转变。通过整理分析2011—2020年各省地震灾害的空间分布特征,认为有必要进一步强化四川、云南、甘肃的抗震设防工作,提升其抵御灾害地震风险的能力;在中东部经济较发达地区,应尤其关注地震造成的间接经济损失和人员受伤情况。通过各省的提取地形坡度因素,采用地统计方法定量计算地震损失与地形坡度因素间的空间相关性系数,认为在以自然条件为基础分析地震灾害的过程中,因震致死与地形的空间相关性不如经济损失和因震致伤高,结合过去30年地震灾害的时间分布特征,得出因震致死和因震致伤总体保持平稳,但经济损失急剧增长,且增长趋势越来越显著,这主要是由经济发展等社会人文因素导致。 相似文献
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PRE-ASSESSMENT OF EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED LOSSES BASED ON FIELD SURVEY AND KILOMETER GRID DATASET: A CASE STUDY FROM DEHONG DAI-JINGPO AUTONOMOUS PREFECTURE 
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下载免费PDF全文 The pre-assessment of earthquake damage based on field surveys and grid dataset in 1km resolution is very helpful for emergency preparedness and mitigation of earthquake disaster losses.In this paper,we briefly introduced the contents,principles,methods and the results of software assessment as well as the revised results after field surveys.In addition,the emergency supplies and manpower requirements after the outbreak of earthquake are discussed.The assessment contents include the earthquake affected area and population,the amount of casualties,injuries,economic losses,and the number of population to be resettled.Scenario earthquake is set with an interval of 50 kilometers along the major faults and the losses induced by earthquake are outputted by the software.After that,the software outputs are revised based on field surveys.In addition,according to the earthquake cases happening between 2008 and 2015,the growth curve model used to estimate the demand of rescue supplies and teams is also proposed in this study.Based on this model and the software named earthquake emergency disaster rapid assessment and dynamic visualized software (NIE Gao-zhong,2014),and with the help of the statistical data such as population density and socio-economic situations,earthquake losses are pre-assessed by taking Dehong Dai-Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture as an example.The comparison shows that the actual losses are nearly the same as the software outputs.However,due to the ignorance of the casualties caused by geological disasters,the revised casualties are more than the software output.Not only the study area discussed in this paper,the earthquake loss assessment method can also be used to other regions in China. 相似文献
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After the occurrence of an earthquake, strong motion observation networks can record ground motion at distributed observation stations. Based on the ground motion parameters from these records, the spatial distribution of seismic intensity can be quickly determined, and the degree of damage in different areas can be estimated. This information provides the technical basis for the emergency response, so as to ensure that rescue teams can reach extreme earthquake areas and carry out the search and rescue operation in an accurate and timely manner to reduce casualties and property loss. In this paper, we introduced 7 intensity algorithms and compared the results with the records of the Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake. We found that the differences between the instrumental intensities calculated by each method and the macro intensities were within a 1-degree range, which suggested good practicality of these different methods. The results calculated by the industrial standards-based calculation method and the integrated test showed good consistency. 相似文献
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地震发生后，强震动观测台网可以获取灾区分布式台站位置的强震动记录，通过基于这些强震动记录得到的地震动参数可以快速地评估地震烈度的空间分布，以迅速判定不同地区的受灾程度，尤其是地震极震区的分布范围，为政府开展应急救援并合理地分配救援力量、物资等提供依据，以保证救援人员及时、准确地到达极震区展开搜救工作，减少人民群众的生命财产损失。本文介绍了国内外7种地震仪器的烈度计算方法，基于四川九寨沟M7.0级地震获取的强震动记录，对这7种方法的计算烈度值进行了对比分析。结果表明，各方法计算的仪器烈度与宏观烈度的差值均在1度误差范围以内，均显示了良好的实用性，且行业标准法和综合判别法两者的计算结果较为一致。 相似文献
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Vincenzo Convertito Iunio Iervolino Aldo Zollo Gaetano Manfredi 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2008,28(6):492-505
The development and implementation of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS), both in regional or on-site configurations can help to mitigate the losses due to the occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in densely populated and/or industrialized areas. The capability of an EEWS to provide real-time estimates of source parameters (location and magnitude) can be used to take some countermeasures during the earthquake occurrence and before the arriving of the most destructive waves at the site of interest. However, some critical issues are peculiar of EEWS and need further investigation: (1) the uncertainties on earthquake magnitude and location estimates based on the measurements of some observed quantities in the very early portion of the recorded signals; (2) the selection of the most appropriate parameter to be used to predict the ground motion amplitude both in near- and far-source ranges; (3) the use of the estimates provided by the EEWS for structural engineering and risk mitigation applications.In the present study, the issues above are discussed using the Campania–Lucania region (Southern Apennines) in Italy, as test-site area. In this region a prototype system for earthquake early warning, and more generally for seismic alert management, is under development. The system is based on a dense, wide dynamic accelerometric network deployed in the area where the moderate-to-large earthquake causative fault systems are located.The uncertainty analysis is performed through a real-time probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by using two different approaches. The first is the Bayesian approach that implicitly integrate both the time evolving estimate of earthquake parameters, the probability density functions and the variability of ground motion propagation providing the most complete information. The second is a classical point estimate approach which does not account for the probability density function of the magnitude and only uses the average of the estimates performed at each seismic station.Both the approaches are applied to two main towns located in the area of interest, Napoli and Avellino, for which a missed and false alarm analysis is presented by means of a scenario earthquake: an M 7.0 seismic event located at the centre of the seismic network.Concerning the ground motion prediction, attention is focused on the response spectra as the most appropriate function to characterize the ground motion for earthquake engineering applications of EEWS. 相似文献