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Pouria Kourehpaz Carlos Molina Hutt Nasser A. Marafi Jeffrey W. Berman Marc O. Eberhard 《地震工程与结构动力学》2021,50(1):26-42
Studies of recorded ground motions and simulations have shown that deep sedimentary basins can greatly increase the intensity of earthquake ground motions within a period range of approximately 1–4 s, but the economic impacts of basin effects are uncertain. This paper estimates key economic indicators of seismic performance, expressed in terms of earthquake‐induced repair costs, using empirical and simulated seismic hazard characterizations that account for the effects of basins. The methodology used is general, but the estimates are made for a series of eight‐ to 24‐story residential reinforced concrete shear wall archetype buildings in Seattle, WA, whose design neglects basin effects. All buildings are designed to comply with code‐minimum requirements (i.e., reference archetypes), as well as a series of design enhancements, which include (a) increasing design forces, (b) decreasing drift limits, and (c) a combination of these strategies. As an additional reference point, a performance‐based design is also assessed. The performance of the archetype buildings is evaluated for the seismic hazard level in Seattle according to the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (2018 NSHM), which explicitly considers basin effects. Inclusion of basin effects results in an average threefold increase in annualized losses for all archetypes. Incorporating physics‐based ground motion simulations to represent the large‐magnitude Cascadia subduction interface earthquake contribution to the hazard results in a further increase of 22% relative to the 2018 NSHM. The most effective of the design strategies considered combines a 25% increase in strength with a reduction in drift limits to 1.5%. 相似文献
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Hazard-consistent response spectra in the Region of Murcia (Southeast Spain): comparison to earthquake-resistant provisions 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Jorge M. Gaspar-Escribano Belén Benito Julián García-Mayordomo 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2008,6(2):179-196
Hazard-consistent ground-motion characterisations of three representative sites located in the Region of Murcia (southeast
Spain) are presented. This is the area where the last three damaging events in Spain occurred and there is a significant amount
of data for comparing them with seismic hazard estimates and earthquake-resistant provisions. Results of a probabilistic seismic
hazard analysis are used to derive uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the 475-year return period, on rock and soil conditions.
Hazard deaggregation shows that the largest hazard contributions are due to small, local events for short-period target motions
and to moderate, more distant events for long-period target motions. For each target motion and site considered, the associated
specific response spectra (SRS) are obtained. It is shown that the combination of two SRS, for short- and long-period ground
motions respectively, provides a good approximation to the UHS at each site. The UHS are compared to design response spectra
contained in current Spanish and European seismic codes for the 475-year return period. For the three sites analysed, only
the Eurocode 8 (EC8) type 2 spectrum captures the basic shape of the UHS (and not the EC8 type 1, as could be expected a priori).
An alternative response spectrum, anchored at short- and long-period accelerations, is tested, providing a close match to
the UHS spectra at the three sites. Results underline the important contribution of the frequent, low-to-moderate earthquakes
that characterize the seismicity of this area to seismic hazard (at the 475-year return period). 相似文献
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Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: Early history 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Robin K. McGuire 《地震工程与结构动力学》2008,37(3):329-338
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the evaluation of annual frequencies of exceedence of ground motion levels (typically designated by peak ground acceleration or by spectral accelerations) at a site. The result of a PSHA is a seismic hazard curve (annual frequency of exceedence vs ground motion amplitude) or a uniform hazard spectrum (spectral amplitude vs structural period, for a fixed annual frequency of exceedence). Analyses of this type were first conceived in the 1960s and have become the basis for the seismic design of engineered facilities ranging from common buildings designed according to building codes to critical facilities such as nuclear power plants. This Historical Note traces the early history of PSHA. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Probabilistic seismic risk assessment for spatially distributed lifelines is less straightforward than for individual structures. While procedures such as the ‘PEER framework’ have been developed for risk assessment of individual structures, these are not easily applicable to distributed lifeline systems, due to difficulties in describing ground‐motion intensity (e.g. spectral acceleration) over a region (in contrast to ground‐motion intensity at a single site, which is easily quantified using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis), and since the link between the ground‐motion intensities and lifeline performance is usually not available in closed form. As a result, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and its variants are well suited for characterizing ground motions and computing resulting losses to lifelines. This paper proposes a simulation‐based framework for developing a small but stochastically representative catalog of earthquake ground‐motion intensity maps that can be used for lifeline risk assessment. In this framework, Importance Sampling is used to preferentially sample ‘important’ ground‐motion intensity maps, and K‐Means Clustering is used to identify and combine redundant maps in order to obtain a small catalog. The effects of sampling and clustering are accounted for through a weighting on each remaining map, so that the resulting catalog is still a probabilistically correct representation. The feasibility of the proposed simulation framework is illustrated by using it to assess the seismic risk of a simplified model of the San Francisco Bay Area transportation network. A catalog of just 150 intensity maps is generated to represent hazard at 1038 sites from 10 regional fault segments causing earthquakes with magnitudes between five and eight. The risk estimates obtained using these maps are consistent with those obtained using conventional MCS utilizing many orders of magnitudes more ground‐motion intensity maps. Therefore, the proposed technique can be used to drastically reduce the computational expense of a simulation‐based risk assessment, without compromising the accuracy of the risk estimates. This will facilitate computationally intensive risk analysis of systems such as transportation networks. Finally, the study shows that the uncertainties in the ground‐motion intensities and the spatial correlations between ground‐motion intensities at various sites must be modeled in order to obtain unbiased estimates of lifeline risk. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The conditional spectrum (CS, with mean and variability) is a target response spectrum that links nonlinear dynamic analysis back to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for ground motion selection. The CS is computed on the basis of a specified conditioning period, whereas structures under consideration may be sensitive to response spectral amplitudes at multiple periods of excitation. Questions remain regarding the appropriate choice of conditioning period when utilizing the CS as the target spectrum. This paper focuses on risk‐based assessments, which estimate the annual rate of exceeding a specified structural response amplitude. Seismic hazard analysis, ground motion selection, and nonlinear dynamic analysis are performed, using the conditional spectra with varying conditioning periods, to assess the performance of a 20‐story reinforced concrete frame structure. It is shown here that risk‐based assessments are relatively insensitive to the choice of conditioning period when the ground motions are carefully selected to ensure hazard consistency. This observed insensitivity to the conditioning period comes from the fact that, when CS‐based ground motion selection is used, the distributions of response spectra of the selected ground motions are consistent with the site ground motion hazard curves at all relevant periods; this consistency with the site hazard curves is independent of the conditioning period. The importance of an exact CS (which incorporates multiple causal earthquakes and ground motion prediction models) to achieve the appropriate spectral variability at periods away from the conditioning period is also highlighted. The findings of this paper are expected theoretically but have not been empirically demonstrated previously. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard in Eastern Marmara Region using an improved probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology. Two significant improvements over the previous seismic hazard assessment practices are accomplished in this study: advanced seismic source characterization models in terms of source geometry and recurrence relationships are developed, and improved global ground motion models (NGA-W1 models) are employed to represent the ground motion variability. Planar fault segments are defined and a composite magnitude distribution model is used for all seismic sources in the region to properly represent the characteristic behavior of the North Anatolian Fault without the need for an additional background zone. Multi-segment ruptures are considered using the rupture model proposed by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2003). Events in the earthquake catalogue are attributed to the fault zones and scenario weights are determined by releasing the accumulated seismic energy. The uniform hazard spectra at 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years hazard level for different soil conditions (soil and rock) are revealed for specific locations in the region (Adapazar?, Düzce, Gemlik, Izmit, Iznik and Sapanca). Hazard maps of the region for rock site conditions at the selected hazard levels are provided to allow the readers perform site-specific hazard assessment and develop site-specific design spectrum for local site conditions. 相似文献
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在过去的数十年里，美国地震区划图随着建筑抗震设计需求而不断发展变化，从最初的一张图发展成现今抗震设计图和地震危险性图两图共生的形式。地震危险性图主要反映依据地震科学认识与基础观测资料评估得到的国土地震危险性分布，抗震设计图则继承了传统地震区划图的主要功能，反映国土范围内建筑抗震设计所需地震动设计参数的分布，服务于建筑设计。依据抗震设计需求，美国地震区划图的演化过程可划分为地震系数分区区划、设计地震地震动区划和最大考虑地震地震动区划3个阶段，各阶段均始于地震危险性图的改进，并以抗震设计理念与方法的更新换代以及与之相适应的抗震设计图的编制为标志。本文总结了美国地震区划图的演化历程，对地震危险性图与抗震设计图发生变革的技术原因、主要特征、应用意义及其影响进行了重点的分析与论述。 相似文献
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L. Peruzza A. Rebez D. Slejko P. L. Bragato 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2000,20(5-8):361-371
Probabilistic seismic hazard maps, in terms of spectral acceleration and uniform hazard response spectra at given sites, considering local soil conditions, represent a much more complete estimate of the seismic hazard than the traditional maps in terms of peak ground acceleration or macroseismic intensity. This is particularly true when the requests of urban planners and engineers have to be met. The present analysis shows how some hazard parameters, such as the effective peak acceleration and the spectrum intensity, can well synthesise the overall information available from traditional probabilistic studies, but also suggests that soil condition is a first-order ingredient for effective seismic hazard mapping at national level. Three Italian towns, damaged by the 1997 Umbria–Marche earthquake sequence, are considered as example to demonstrate that: (1) soil condition dependent uniform hazard spectra well approximate actual spectra recorded during some events of the seismic sequence; (2) for these localities, the design spectrum of the present Italian seismic code does not seem adequate.
These considerations have induced the Italian scientific community to propose an updating of the national seismic zonation on the basis of several hazard parameters, that are described in this paper. 相似文献
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IntroductionAt present, the proper design and construction of buildings for earthquake-resistance is the most effective measure to mitigate the earthquake damage. In a broad sense, the earthquake resistance design should include the following seven contents:1) Determining the seismic design criteria Determining the seismic design goals3) Determining the seismic design parameters (intensity or ground motion) and their numerical values4) Determining the category of importance for buildings and … 相似文献
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Seismic hazard assessment of Tehran,Iran with emphasis on near-fault rupture directivity effects 
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下载免费PDF全文 Many destructive earthquakes happened in Tehran, Iran in the last centuries. The existence of active faults like the North Tehran is the main cause of seismicity in this city. According to past investigations, it is estimated that in the scenario of activation of the North Tehran fault, many structures in Tehran will collapse. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near field rupture directivity effects of this fault into the seismic hazard assessment of important sites in Tehran. In this study, using calculations coded in MATLAB,Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis(PSHA) is conducted for an important site in Tehran. Following that, deaggregation technique is performed on PSHA and the contribution of seismic scenarios to hazard is obtained in the range of distance and magnitude. After identifying the North Tehran fault as the most hazardous source affecting the site in 10000-year return period, rupture directivity effects of this fault is incorporated into the seismic hazard assessment using Somerville et al.(1997) model with broadband approach and Shahi and Baker(2011) model with narrowband approach. The results show that the narrowband approach caused a 27% increase in the peak of response spectrum in 10000-year return period compared with the conventional PSHA. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near fault rupture directivity effects into the higher levels of seismic hazard assessment attributed to important sites. 相似文献
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This paper aims at implementing and introducing the use of conditional mean spectrum (CMS) and conditional spectrum (CS) as the main input parameters in the practice of seismic safety evaluation (SSE) in China, instead of the currently used uniform hazard spectrum (UHS). For this purpose, a procedure for M-R-epsilon seismic hazard deaggregation in China was first developed. For illustration purposes, two different typical sites in China, with one to two dominant seismic zones, were considered as examples to carry out seismic hazard deaggregation and illustrate the construction of CMS/CS. Two types of correlation coefficients were used to generate CMS and the results were compared over a vibration period range of interest. Ground motion records were selected from the NSMONS (2007–2015) and PEER NGA-West2 databases to correspond to the target CMS and CS. Hazard consistency of the spectral accelerations of the selected ground motion records was evaluated and validated by computing the annual exceedance probability rate of the response spectra and comparing the results to the hazard curve corresponding to each site of concern at different periods. The tools developed in this work and their illustrative application to specific case studies in China are a first step towards the adoption of CMS and CS into the practice of seismic safety evaluation in this country. 相似文献
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Highway bridge seismic design: Summary of FHWA/MCEER project on seismic vulnerability of new highway construction 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) sponsored a large, multi-year project conducted by the Multidisciplinary Center
for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER) titled “Seismic Vulnerability of New Highway Construction” (MCEER Project 112),
which was completed in 1998. MCEER coordinated the work of many researchers, who performed studies on the seismic design and
vulnerability analysis of highway bridges, tunnels, and retaining structures. Extensive research was conducted to provide
revisions and improvements to current design and detailing approaches and national design specifications for highway bridges.
The program included both analytical and experimental studies, and addressed seismic hazard exposure and ground motion input
for the U.S. highway system; foundation design and soil behavior; structural importance, analysis, and response; structural
design issues and details; and structural design criteria.
Supported by: the Federal Highway Administration under contract number DTFH61-92-C-00112. 相似文献
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在我国当前地震安全性评价中,普遍使用考虑地震活动时空不均匀性的概率地震危险性分析方法(CP-SHA),它规定以地震带为统计区域计算地震活动性参数b值和v4值。正在编制的中国地震动区划图(五代图)提出了针对潜在震源区进行三级划分原则:划分地震带、地震带上划分地震构造区、地震构造区内再划分潜在震源区。本文提出以地震构造区为统计区域回归统计方法计算b值和v4值,然后进行概率危险性分析计算,这样得到的结果可能更为合理。 相似文献
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DISCUSSION ON THE SPECTRA SHAPE OF SEISMIC MARGIN EARTHQUAKE OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN CHINA 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Fukushima nuclear accident caused widespread concern of earthquake initiated severe accident. Under this background, China nuclear utilities carried out research and application of seismic margin assessment(SMA)approach to evaluate the seismic margin of the existing nuclear power plants(NPP)by different spectra shape of seismic margin earthquake(SME). By reviewing the method used to determine SME of operational NPP in central and eastern United States(CEUS), this paper analyzed the seismic hazard characteristic of China NPP sites, contrasted the design basis ground motion between NPP in CEUS and China, and suggested giving priority to evaluating the seismic margin of operational NPP that adopted the improved second generation technology for the urgency and importance of assessment on the actual seismic capacity of NPP. Comparing RG1.60 spectrum to normalized site-specific SL-2 level acceleration spectra, we found that some normalized spectra overtook the RG1.60's in high frequency range, so it is not always adequate to scale RG1.60 spectrum to evaluate the seismic margin for sites of the improved second generation NPP. We selected a sample site whose site-specific SL-2 level ground motion is close to the standard design of improved second generation NPP(0.2g scaled RG1.60 spectrum)to determine the seismic margin earthquake by probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method of the sample site. Compared to the given PGA(0.3g)scaled scenario earthquake ground motions and the uniform hazard response spectrum(UHRS), whose PGA is 0.3g to PGA(0.3g)scaled standard spectra(median NUREG/CR0098 spectrum and RG1.60 spectrum), the results demonstrated that uniform hazard response spectrum and scaled scenario earthquake ground motions are both significantly higher than the PGA scaled median NUREG/CR0098 spectrum, and all the three spectra are enveloped by PGA scaled RG1.60 spectrum. Then, this paper suggests adopting the uniform hazard response spectrum or scenario earthquake ground motions to evaluate the seismic margin of improved second generation NPP beyond site SL-2 ground motion; and to evaluate the seismic margin of improved second generation NPP beyond standard design, we recommend to use PGA scaled RG1.60 spectrum. 相似文献
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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Thailand 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Teraphan Ornthammarath Pennung Warnitchai Kawin Worakanchana Saeed Zaman Ragnar Sigbj?rnsson Carlo Giovanni Lai 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2011,9(2):367-394
A set of probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Thailand has been derived using procedures developed for the latest US National
Seismic Hazard Maps. In contrast to earlier hazard maps for this region, which are mostly computed using seismic source zone
delineations, the presented maps are based on the combination of smoothed gridded seismicity, crustal-fault, and subduction
source models. Thailand’s composite earthquake catalogue is revisited and expanded, covering a study area limited by 0°–30°N
Latitude and 88°–110°E Longitude and the instrumental period from 1912 to 2007. The long-term slip rates and estimates of
earthquake size from paleoseismological studies are incorporated through a crustal fault source model. Furthermore, the subduction
source model is used to model the megathrust Sunda subduction zones, with variable characteristics along the strike of the
faults. Epistemic uncertainty is taken into consideration by the logic tree framework incorporating basic quantities, such
as different source modelling, maximum cut-off magnitudes and ground motion prediction equations. The ground motion hazard
map is presented over a 10 km grid in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.2, 1.0, and 2.0 undamped
natural periods and a 5% critical damping ratio for 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The presented maps
give expected ground motions that are based on more extensive data sources than applied in the development of previous maps.
The main findings are that northern and western Thailand are subjected to the highest hazard. The largest contributors to
short- and long-period ground motion hazard in the Bangkok region are from the nearby active faults and Sunda subduction zones,
respectively. 相似文献
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Safety against earthquake hazards presents two aspects: structural safety against potentially destructive dynamic forces and site safety related to geotechnical phenomena, such as amplification, landsliding and soil liquefaction. The correct evaluation of seismic hazard is, therefore, highly affected by risk factors due to geological nature and geotechnical properties of soils. In response to these new developments, several attempts have been made to identify and appraise geotechnical hazards and to represent them in the form of zoning maps, in which locations or zones with different levels of hazard potential are identified. The geotechnical zonation of the subsoil of the city of Catania (Italy) suggests a high vulnerability of the physical environment added to site amplification of the ground motion phenomena. The ground response analysis at the surface, in terms of time history and response spectra, has been obtained by some 1D equivalent linear models and by a 2D linear model, using a design scenario earthquake as input at the conventional bedrock. In particular, the study has regarded the evaluation of site effects in correspondence of the database of about 1200 boreholes and water-wells available in the data-bank of the Catania area. According to the response spectra obtained through the application of the 1D and 2D models, the city of Catania has been divided into some zones with different peak ground acceleration at the surface, to which corresponds a different value of the Seismic Geotechnical Hazard. A seismic microzoning map of the urban area of the city of Catania has been obtained. The map represents an important tool for the seismic improvement of the buildings, indispensable for the mitigation of the seismic risk. 相似文献
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高层建筑时程分析中地震动时程选择和修改方法研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
合理的地震动时程选择与修改方法对于高层结构的抗震设计具有重要意义,有着广泛的工程应用.本文回顾了建筑抗震设计规范对于输入地震动时程的规定,通过对现有的地震动时程选择与修改方法进行分类和定性分析,挑选了两种与规范要求衔接较好的方法.结合具体算例对两种方法进行了定量分析,结果表明以安评设计谱作为选择指标,利用最小二乘法对选择的地震动时程进行修改,可以得到离散较小且符合规范要求的地震动时程,该成果能够在现行规范要求下为结构的抗震设计提供合理可靠的依据.同时,本文也对未来地震动时程选择与修改方法的研究和发展方向进行了展望,指出条件均值谱和非弹性反应谱将是该领域未来主要的研究方向. 相似文献
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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are the basis of modern seismic design codes. To test fully a seismic hazard curve at the return periods of interest for engineering would require many thousands of years’ worth of ground-motion recordings. Because strong-motion networks are often only a few decades old (e.g. in mainland France the first accelerometric network dates from the mid-1990s), data from such sensors can be used to test hazard estimates only at very short return periods. In this article, several hundreds of years of macroseismic intensity observations for mainland France are interpolated using a robust kriging-with-a-trend technique to establish the earthquake history of every French mainland municipality. At 24 selected cities representative of the French seismic context, the number of exceedances of intensities IV, V and VI is determined over time windows considered complete. After converting these intensities to peak ground accelerations using the global conversion equation of Caprio et al. (Ground motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs): a global relationship and evaluation of regional dependency, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105:1476–1490, 2015), these exceedances are compared with those predicted by the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013 (ESHM13). In half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances for low intensities (IV and V) is within the range of predictions of ESHM13. In the other half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances is higher than the predictions of ESHM13. For intensity VI, the match is closer, but the comparison is less meaningful due to a scarcity of data. According to this study, the ESHM13 underestimates hazard in roughly half of France, even when taking into account the uncertainty in the conversion from intensity to acceleration. However, these results are valid only for the acceleration range tested in this study (0.01 to 0.09 g). 相似文献