Assessment of the impact of climate change on flow regime at multiple temporal scales and potential ecological implications in an alpine river     

Cui  Tong  Yang  Tao  Xu  Chong-Yu  Shao  Quanxi  Wang  Xiaoyan  Li  Zhenya 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(6):1849-1866

The source region of Yellow river is an alpine river sensitive to climate changes, but the potential effects of climate change on hydrological regime characteristics and ecological implications are less understood. This study aims to assess the response of the alterations in the flow regimes over the source region of Yellow river to climate change using Soil and Water Integrated Model driven by different Global Circulation Models (GFDL-ESM2M, IPSL-CM5A-LR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) under three Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Indicators of hydrological alteration and River impact index are employed to evaluate streamflow regime alterations at multiple temporal scales. Results show that the magnitude of monthly and annual streamflow except May, the magnitude and duration of the annual extreme, and the number of reversals are projected to increase in the near future period (2020–2049) and far future period (2070–2099) compared to the baseline period (1971–2000). The timing of annual maximum flows is expected to shift backwards. The source region of Yellow river is expected to undergo low change degree as per the scenarios RCP2.6 for both two future periods and under the scenarios RCP4.5 for the near future period, whereas high change degree under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the far period on the daily scale. On the monthly scale, climate changes mainly have effects on river flow magnitude and timing. The basin would suffer an incipient impact alteration in the far period under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, while low impact in other scenarios. These changes in flow regimes could have several positive impacts on aquatic ecosystems in the near period but more detrimental effects in the far period.

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Mediating stream baseflow response to climate change: The role of basin storage          下载免费PDF全文

James M. Buttle 《水文研究》2018,32(3):363-378

Inter‐basin differences in streamflow response to changes in regional hydroclimatology may reflect variations in storage characteristics that control the retention and release of water inputs. These aspects of storage could mediate a basin's sensitivity to climate change. The hypothesis that temporal trends in stream baseflow exhibit a more muted reaction to changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration for basins with greater storage was tested on the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) in Southern Ontario, Canada. Long‐term (>25 years) baseflow trends for 16 basins were compared to corresponding trends in precipitation amount and type and in potential evapotranspiration as well as shorter trends in groundwater levels for monitoring wells on the ORM. Inter‐basin differences in storage properties were characterized using physiographic, hydrogeologic, land use/land cover, and streamflow metrics. The latter included the slope of the basin's flow duration curve and basin dynamic storage. Most basins showed temporal increases in baseflow, consistent with limited evidence of increases and decreases in regional precipitation and snowfall: precipitation ratio, respectively, and recent increases in groundwater recharge along the crest of the ORM. Baseflow trend magnitude was uncorrelated to basin physiographic, hydrogeologic, land use/land cover, or flow duration curve characteristics. However, it was positively related to a basin's dynamic storage, particularly for basins with limited coverage of open water and wetlands. The dynamic storage approach assumes that a basin behaves as a first‐order dynamical system, and extensive open water and wetland areas in a basin may invalidate this assumption. Previous work suggested that smaller dynamic storage was linked to greater damping of temporal variations in water inputs and reduced interannual variability in streamflow regime. Storage and release of water inputs to a basin may assist in mediating baseflow response to temporal changes in regional hydroclimatology and may partly account for inter‐basin differences in that response. Such storage characteristics should be considered when forecasting the impacts of climate change on regional streamflow.  相似文献   

Operation of two major reservoirs of Iran under IPCC scenarios during the XXI century          下载免费PDF全文

Habib Akbari‐Alashti  Andrea Soncini  Yagob Dinpashoh  Ahmad Fakheri‐Fard  Siamak Talatahari  Daniele Bocchiola 《水文研究》2018,32(21):3254-3271

We assess the effects of prospective climate change until 2100 on water management of two major reservoirs of Iran, namely, Dez (3.34 × 10⁹ m³) and Alavian (6 × 10⁷ m³). We tune the Poly‐Hydro model suited for simulation of hydrological cycle in high altitude snow‐fed catchments. We assess optimal operation rules (ORs) for the reservoirs using three algorithms under dynamic and static operation and linear and non‐linear decision rules during control run (1990–2010 for Dez and 2000–2010 for Alavian). We use projected climate scenarios (plus statistical downscaling) from three general circulation models, EC‐Earth, CCSM4, and ECHAM6, and three emission scenarios, or representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for a grand total of nine scenarios, to mimic evolution of the hydrological cycle under future climate until 2100. We subsequently test the ORs under the future hydrological scenarios (at half century and end of century) and the need for reoptimization. Poly‐Hydro model when benchmarked against historical data well mimics the hydrological budget of both catchments, including the main processes of evapotranspiration and streamflows. Teaching–learning‐based optimization delivers the best performance in both reservoirs according to objective scores and is used for future operation. Our projections in Dez catchment depict decreased precipitation along the XXI century, with ?1% on average (of the nine scenarios) at half century and ?6% at the end of century, with changes in streamflows on average ?7% yearly and ?13% yearly, respectively. In Alavian, precipitation would decrease by ?10% on average at half century and ?13% at the end of century, with streamflows ?14% yearly and ?18% yearly, respectively. Under the projected future hydrology, reservoirs' operation would provide lower performance (i.e., larger lack of water) than now, especially for Alavian dam. Our results provide evidence of potentially decreasing water availability and less effective water management in water stressed areas like Northern Iran here during this century.  相似文献   

Hydro-climatological changes in the Colorado River Basin over a century     

Ajay Kalra  Soumya Sagarika  Pratik Pathak  Sajjad Ahmad 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(14):2280-2296

This study evaluates changes in streamflow, temperature and precipitation over a time span of 105 years (1906–2010) in the Colorado River Basin (CRB). Monthly precipitation and temperature data for 29 climate divisions, and streamflow data for 29 naturalized gauges were analyzed. Two variations of the Mann-Kendall test, considering lag-1 auto correlation and long-term persistence, and the Pettitt test were employed to assess trends and shifts, respectively. Results indicated that streamflow increased during the winter–spring months and decreased during the summer– autumn period. Decreasing trends in winter precipitation were identified over snow-dominated regions in the upper basin. Significant increases in temperature were detected over several months. Major shifts were noticed in 1964, 1968 and in the late 1920s. Increasing temperature while decreasing streamflow and precipitation were noticed after major shifts in the 1930s, and these shifts coincided with coupled phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation.