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1.
本文利用搭载于我国风云三号B星上的微波成像仪(MWRI)观测亮温数据,结合戈达德廓线反演算法,对1102号"桑达"台风地面雨强和降雨云结构进行反演试验.利用AMSR-E业务降水产品对地面雨强反演结果进行了检验,结果表明,MWRI和AMSR-E反演的地面雨强在空间分布上非常吻合,相关性达76%,均方根误差约2.8 mm/h,二者的观测亮温及地面雨强反演结果具有较好的一致性.提取洋面台风雨区的平均水凝物廓线,其垂直结构显示,雨水和可降冰含量丰富,随高度变化明显,且具有明显峰值高度,云水和云冰含量则较少,且随高度变化不明显;当降水增强时,雨水和可降冰各层含量稳定增加,且峰值高度基本保持不变,云水和云冰含量则增幅不稳,且峰值高度有所改变.地面雨强随距台风中心距离的变化阐释了台风的螺旋结构及降水特点,距台风中心距离0.3°和0.6°附近分别出现了地面雨强峰值和次峰值,且66%的降水集中在距台风中心距离1°的空间范围内.MWRI提供的台风地面雨强和降雨云垂直信息具有较高的可信度,对于我们监测台风降水、分析台风降水结构的时空演变特征以及数值预报模式应用等具有重要的参考价值. 相似文献
2.
风云三号C星(FY-3C)同时装载有设置了50～60GHz和118.75GHz附近氧气吸收带内通道的微波大气垂直探测器,可以用于监测临近空间下部的大气温度.本文的首要目的是展示FY-3C微波大气垂直探测器在监测临近空间(尤其是平流层)强重力波扰动中的优势特点.在给出平流层强扰动监测结果的基础上,分析了不同波段不同通道监测平流层大气温度扰动的能力.随后,对比分析了FY-3C大气温度探测通道与国外同类仪器在观测平流层扰动中的异同点,并进一步讨论了不同平台相同大气微波探测通道联合分析平流层扰动过程的能力.本文在统计2013年冬季(2012年12月和2013年1、2月)和2014年夏季(2014年6、7、8月)的微波大气垂直探测器观测的全球平流层扰动出现频率分布的基础上,利用FY-3C微波大气温度探测器分析了格陵兰岛附近2014年1月7—11日一次平流层扰动过程.结果表明,FY-3C微波探测器50～60GHz和118.75GHz波段可用于获取平流层不同高度上的大气温度扰动特征,且前一波段的探测能力显著地优于后一波段.随后,针对2014年1月11日拉布拉多半岛附近的平流层强扰动过程,基于FY-3C的MWTS-Ⅱ与METOP-B的AMSU-A的对比观测表明,MWTS-Ⅱ能够揭示平流层波动更细致的水平结构特征.最后,针对2014年8月10日安第斯山脉附近不同平台仪器的相同通道探测结果的分析表明,多平台联合观测可以进一步提高平流层强扰动监测的时间分辨率. 相似文献
3.
雹暴的闪电活动特征与降水结构研究 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
利用地面雷电探测网获取的地闪资料分析了10次雹暴过程的闪电分布和演变特征, 并结合地面多普勒雷达和TRMM卫星的闪电成像仪(LIS)、测雨雷达(PR)、微波成像仪(TMI)分析了雹暴的降水结构及其与闪电活动的关系. 研究结果表明: 降雹天气过程的正地闪比例较高, 平均值为45.5%; 在雹云快速发展阶段, 地闪频数存在明显的“跃增”; 在整个降雹阶段正地闪活动非常活跃, 在正地闪频数增加的过程中通常伴有负地闪频数的下降; 在雹暴的减弱消散阶段, 地闪频数显著减少. 两次典型雹暴的闪电活动非常活跃, 总闪电频数分别为183次/min和55次/min; 其降水结构特征是, 大于30 dBZ的强回波单体多集中于系统的前缘, 系统后部伴有稳定性的层状云降水区, 回波顶高均超过14 km; 其对流降水的贡献率分别为85%和97%. 对6 km高度处的雷达回波与总闪电关系的研究表明, 总闪电主要出现在强回波区(>30 dBZ)及其周围. 对流降水区发生闪电的几率约是层云降水区的20倍以上, 可以利用闪电与对流降水的相关性来有效地识别对流降水区. 初步结果还表明闪电频数和冰水含量之间呈线性关系, 即冰水含量越高, 相应的闪电活动也越频繁. 相似文献
4.
FY3B-MWRI中国区域雪深反演算法改进 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于2002～2009年全国753个国家基本气象站观测的地面雪深和温度资料,以及同期的高级微波扫描辐射计(Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS,AMSR-E)亮温数据,利用不同频率亮温对雪深的敏感性差异,建立了中国区域雪深半经验统计反演算法.经2006年地面台站观测雪深验证,其反演均方根误差为5.6 cm.具体反演思路如下:根据全国1 km网格土地利用覆盖度数据,结合中国区域的下垫面微波辐射特征,划分成森林、农田、草地和裸地四种主要地物类型;首先建立这四种主要地物类型相对较纯像元下的雪深反演算法,然后利用线性混合像元分解技术,建立微波像元下高精度的雪深反演算法.将本算法分别应用于风云三号B星搭载的微波成像仪(Fengyun-3B/Mcirwoave Radiation Imagery,FY3BMWRI)和AMSR-E数据,进行了2010～2011年冬季雪盖制图,与相应时段的MODIS日积雪产品(MYD10C1)相比,尽管两者数据源有所不同,本算法估算雪盖的精度均达到84%以上.此外,利用本算法和FY3B-MWRI数据在北半球进行了雪当量估算测试,与AMSR-E标准雪当量产品进行了比较,发现二者结果较为一致.但在中国地区,AMSR-E雪当量值明显高于FY3B-MWRI估算值,这与目前已有AMSR-E雪当量产品的验证结果较为一致,FY3B-MWRI雪深估算值与站点观测值更为吻合.该算法已被作为国家卫星气象中心FY3B-MWRI雪深产品的业务化算法. 相似文献
5.
无线电频率干扰(Radio Frequency Interference,简称RFI)的识别对提高星载被动微波资料的利用率有重要作用.本文基于先进的微波扫描辐射计AMSR-2(Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2)2016年1月1日到2017年12月31日两年的观测亮温资料,采用两种基于长时间观测序列的方法(平均值与标准差法、标准估算误差法)来识别全球陆面在C波段(6.9 GHz和新增7.3 GHz通道)的无线电频率干扰,同时还统计分析了长时间RFI信号的分布及变化特征.通过与成熟的谱差法对比验证表明,平均值与标准差法、标准估算误差法对识别全球陆面在C波段的无线电频率干扰是行之有效的,而且标准估算误差法能够将谱差法、平均值与标准差法在冰雪覆盖区域(如格陵兰岛)识别的虚假RFI信号给剔除,有助于得到更加准确的全球无线电频率干扰信号分布图.研究还发现,RFI信号的空间位置分布随时间的推移是逐渐变化的,其出现概率与通道的极化特性有关,且在6.9 GHz水平极化通道识别出RFI信号的视场总数多于垂直极化通道,而在7.3 GHz水平极化通道识别出RFI信号的区域则少于垂直极化通道.同一频率的升轨和降轨资料中RFI信号的出现概率也不同,不论6.9 GHz和7.3 GHz的水平还是垂直极化通道,在升轨资料中识别出RFI信号的视场总数都多于降轨资料. 相似文献
6.
海陆颜色仪(OLCI)是搭载在Sentinel-3上的新型水色遥感传感器,其对于内陆清洁水体水质遥感监测的适用性有待验证.本研究以评价水体富营养化程度的重要参数叶绿素a(Chl.a)浓度为指标,以高原湖泊洱海为研究区,基于2017年4月19日共20个星地同步实验数据,建立了3种可应用于OLCI数据的Chl.a浓度遥感估算模型(波段比值模型、三波段模型以及FLH模型),并估算了当日洱海Chl.a浓度的空间分布.结果表明:(1)选用波段Oa8(665 nm)、Oa11(708.75 nm)和Oa12(753.75 nm)构建的三波段模型最适用于洱海水域的Chl.a浓度估算,其平均绝对误差百分比为12.37%,低于波段比值模型的16.04%和FLH模型的13.50%;(2)对OLCI使用的大气校正方法中,基于去瑞利散射的暗像元法对估算模型的适用性要优于6S、FLAASH以及QUAC方法;(3)洱海OLCI影像中近岸水体受邻近效应影响严重,近红外波段Oa12(753.75 nm)受陆地邻近效应影响的距离为1~2个像元,而Oa8(665 nm)、Oa10(681.25 nm)和Oa11(708.75 nm)波段为1个像元;(4)2017年4月19日全湖Chl.a浓度均值为12.15±5.72μg/L,洱海中部水域Chl.a浓度最低(9.00~12.00μg/L),北部水域浓度最高(12.00~22.76μg/L),南部水域浓度稍高(12.00~14.00μg/L),阳南溪与波罗江入湖口受降雨径流的影响出现"羽流现象",导致Chl.a浓度偏低,约为8.33μg/L. 相似文献
7.
风云三号C星(FY-3C)已经于2013年9月23日发射升空,其上装载的微波湿温探测仪(MWHTS)已于9月30日开机正常工作.MWHTS具有对大气温度和湿度垂直分布进行同步探测的能力.MWHTS为跨轨扫描式微波辐射计,在89~191GHz毫米波段内设置了十五个探测通道,其中包括118.75GHz氧气吸收线附近的8个大气温度探测通道,183.31GHz水汽吸收线附近的5个大气湿度探测通道,以及89GHz和150GHz两个窗区通道.设置在118.75GHz的一组毫米波探测通道是国际上业务卫星首次使用的大气探测通道,这组通道和183.31GHz通道对大气进行联合探测,将获得更加精细的大气温湿度垂直分布数据,为数值预报和气候研究提供丰富信息.为保证MWHTS观测资料的定量应用,对仪器性能和定标精度进行了在轨测试.利用MWHTS在轨正常工作后的三个月数据,对仪器在轨定标的基础数据:冷空和黑体计数值,黑体和仪器温度进行监测分析和质量检验,经过质量检验的在轨定标基础数据,结合发射前真空试验得到的非线性订正项在轨定标生成MWHTS观测亮温数据.评估MWHTS在轨辐射定标结果的精度和偏差特性使用了三种方法:1通过场地定标试验获取大气温湿廓线和地面温度等大气参数信息,结合微波逐线正演辐射传输模式MonoRTM(Monochromatic Radiative Transfer Model)模拟MWHTS的上行微波辐射亮温,与MWHTS实际观测结果进行对比分析;2两个通道特性一致的同类星载被动微波载荷同时观测同一目标,观测亮温的差异主要取决于两个载荷的定标系统偏差.选取美国SNPP上搭载的微波探测仪器ATMS作为MWHTS的参考载荷,基于SNO(simultaneous nadir overpass)技术,对两个仪器的观测亮温进行交叉比对,观测亮温时空匹配及均匀性检验的条件为:观测时间差异小于20min,观测像元中心距离小于3km,观测角度在星下点附近差异小于5°,观测像元周围3×3像元内的亮温标准差小于1K;3基于美国国家环境预测中心的全球数据同化系统GDAS(Global Data Assimilation System)数据,利用快速辐射传输模式CRTM(Community Radiative Transfer Model)对MWHTS各通道亮温进行正演模拟,模拟结果(O)和仪器实际观测的亮温(B)之间的差异记为"O-B",对偏差值"O-B"进行统计特征分析.仪器中心频率的变化、正演模式模拟精度和模式输入廓线自身的误差都会对"O-B"产生影响.但是对于首次使用的探测频点而言(如118.75GHz通道),由于国际上没有同类载荷可以进行交叉比对,借助于正演辐射传输模式计算得到"O-B"偏差的分析结果可以在一定程度上反映仪器整体定标情况.外场地定标试验结果显示除通道14外,其他14个通道的亮温差都在1.3K以内;与同类载荷ATMS的在轨观测进行直接交叉比对表明通道14与ATMS的亮温偏差最大,但中心频点一致的5个水汽探测通道的标准差都小于1K;将MWHTS观测结果和正演辐射传输模式模拟结果即"O-B"进行偏差分析显示,靠近118.75GHz吸收线中心的通道2—6"O-B"标准差小于0.5K,其他通道"O-B"标准差和ATMS相应通道的结果相当;MWHTS观测和模拟偏差随角度变化的研究表明通道1,7~13和15观测结果对角度有一定依赖性. 相似文献
8.
土壤湿度作为陆面过程的重要因子,对局地及邻近地区的大气环流和天气气候有重要影响.青藏高原的土壤湿度观测站点稀少,时间较短,鉴于此,本文使用经过部分观测站点检验的卫星反演数据,研究了春季高原土壤湿度的年际变化与后期夏季我国东部降水的联系和可能机理.结果表明:在全球变暖的背景下,高原土壤湿度总体呈现出显著增加的趋势,去除该线性趋势后,我们定义了一个高原土壤湿度指数TPSMI来定量表征高原土壤湿度的年际变化特征,发现表层、中层、深层的土壤湿度年际变率趋于一致,且春季土壤湿度与夏季土壤湿度显著相关(相关系数可达0.56).当TPSMI偏大时,即高原东部土壤湿度偏大,而西部偏小时,夏季在高原东部(西部)存在一个潜热(感热)热源,二者共同作用下,在对流层中高层从高原西部经我国大陆直至东北地区激发出一个气旋—反气旋—气旋波列,该波列呈相当正压结构,有利于东北冷涡的加强及冷空气向南爆发;与此同时,南亚高压加强东伸,西太副高西伸加强,低空南方暖湿气流与北方干冷气流在长江流域汇合,伴随着上升运动加强,从而有利于夏季长江流域降水增多;反之,当TPSMI偏小时,夏季长江流域降水减少. 相似文献
9.
时序雷达干涉图中的永久散射体(PS)可看作“天然GPS点”, 以构成网络用于监测长期的地表形变. 本文提出采用邻接矩阵拓扑模型对基于Delaunay剖分算法生成的PS网络进行基线识别, 并采用时序相干最大化算法求解PS基线的线性形变速度增量和高程误差增量. 该数据模型和计算方法被应用于探测香港地区2006~2007年间的区域地表沉降. 实验研究采用由Envisat卫星ASAR传感器对该地区成像所获取的时序SAR影像作为数据源, 并联合该地区12个GPS连续运行参考站的观测数据予以大气修正和地面控制. 实验结果表明, 该模型和方法应用于地表形变测量是有效的和可靠的, PS网络方法探测地面沉降的精度约为±2.0 mm/a. 相似文献
10.
新安江水库(千岛湖)热力学状况及热力分层研究 总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3
利用2012年1-12月在新安江水库(千岛湖)6个点位的每月一次的水温及其他环境因子的周年观测资料,分析了水库水温逐月变化、季节变化、垂直分布及温跃层的形成与变化,探讨了温跃层特征量(温跃层深度、厚度、强度)与表层水温、水体透明度的关系.新安江水库表层和中层水温与气温存在显著的线性相关,又以表层水温线性关系最好,而下层水温与气温没有显著相关性,说明下层水温受气温的影响很小,全年处于相对恒温状态.水库表层和中层水温逐月变化明显,呈现夏季最高、春秋季次之、冬季最低的变化趋势,其中中层水温最高值出现的季节较表层水温明显后延,下层水温没有明显的逐月变化和季节变化.水温垂直分布显示,4个季节均存在不同程度的温跃层和温度分层现象,其中水深最深的大坝前水温分层最明显.小金山、三潭岛和大坝前3个典型点位从春季的4月份到冬季的2月份温跃层深度由1.61±0.47 m逐渐增加至39.37±5.35 m,而温跃层厚度和强度则在夏季最高、冬季最低,温跃层随着季节的变化呈现增强稳定减弱消失的周期变化.温跃层深度与水体透明度存在显著正相关,与表层水温存在显著负相关,并基于透明度和表层水温建立温跃层深度的多元线性回归模型. 相似文献
11.
长江流域近50年降水变化及其对干流洪水的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据我国长江流域气象观测站近42年的资料,分析了整个流域年和季节平均面雨量、暴雨日数和暴雨量的变化特征,以及降水对流域径流和洪水的影响.长江流域年和夏季平均面雨量存在明显的年际和年代变化特征,也表现出比较显著的趋势变化特点.大部分测站年平均面雨量呈增加趋势,夏季和冬季平均面雨量的增加趋势尤其明显;秋季平均面雨量呈显著下降趋势.同时,年和夏季暴雨日数和暴雨量也在较大范围内呈显著增加趋势.长江流域的降水对干流平均流量具有重要影响.1973年、1983年和1998年的洪水主要是由明显高于平均的流域面雨量引起的;长江下游平均流量变化趋势也同流域年平均面雨量、夏季平均面雨量变化趋势基本一致,特别是70年代末以来,下游平均流量和流域面雨量的上升趋势更加明显,并同时在1998年达到最高值.长江流域大的丰水年一般对应El Nino年或El Nino次年,表明E1 Nino对长江较大洪水可能具有一定影响. 相似文献
12.
Temporal trends and spatial characteristics of drought and rainfall in arid and semiarid regions of Iran 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Drought, a normal recurrent event in arid and semiarid lands such as Iran, is typically of a temporary nature usually leaving little permanent aftermath. In the current study, the rainfall and drought severity time series were analyzed at 10 stations in the eastern half of Iran for the period 1966–2005. The drought severity was computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for a 12‐month timescale. The trend analyses of the data were also performed using the Kendall and Spearman tests. The results of this study showed that the rainfall and drought severity data had high variations to average values in the study period, and these variations increased with increasing aridity towards the south of the study area. The negative serial correlations found in the seasonal and annual rainfall time series were mostly insignificant. The trend tests detected a significant decreasing trend in the spring rainfall series of Birjand station at the rate of 8.56 mm per season per decade and a significant increasing trend in the summer rainfall series of Torbateheydarieh station at the rate of 0.14 mm per season per decade, whereas the rest of the trends were insignificant. Furthermore, the 12‐month values of the standardized precipitation index decreased at all the stations except Zabol during the past four decades. During the study period, all of the stations experienced at least one extreme drought which mainly occurred in the winter season. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
印度洋海表温度（Sea Surface Temperature，简称SST）的方差分析和相关分析表明南印度洋也存在一个海温偶极子型振荡，并定义了一个南印度洋海表温度异常偶极子指数.夏、秋季（南半球冬、春）的南印度洋偶极子指数与后期热带500hPa和100hPa高度场异常有显著而持续的相关，在冬、春达到最大，并可以持续到次年夏、秋.前期夏、秋季节的南印度洋偶极模对次年我国大陆东部夏季降水异常有显著的影响，对应偶极子正位相，次年夏季印度洋、南海（东亚）夏季风偏弱；副高加强且南撤、西伸，南亚高压偏强且位置偏东，易形成我国长江流域降水偏多，华南降水偏少；负位相年反之.后期冬季西太平洋暖池是联系南印度洋偶极子与次年我国夏季降水异常关系的一条重要途径.南印度洋偶极子表现出了明显的独立于ENSO（El Nio Southern Oscillation，简称ENSO）的特征. 相似文献
14.
FES A. DE SCALLY 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):199-216
Abstract The relative importance of data on winter snow accumulation and summer (monsoon) rainfall for estimating annual runoff in the Jhelum River basin, Punjab Himalaya, Pakistan, has been investigated. Strong correlations were found between point measurements of the annual maximum of snowpack water equivalent and of total winter precipitation in the Kunhar sub-basin, and total annual discharge. In addition, total winter snowfall showed a generally significant correlation with annual discharge. Elevation did not appear to play a strong role in determining the usefulness of these measurements, whereas location within the basin relative to large scale precipitation patterns did, in some cases. Monsoon rainfall appeared to be a very poor indicator of annual discharge. The results also suggest that the operation of a continental scale negative feedback mechanism between Eurasian snow cover and the Indian monsoon might be felt in this region of the Himalaya. 相似文献
15.
Intense Mediterranean precipitation can generate devastating flash floods. A better understanding of the spatial structure of intense rainfall is critical to better identify catchments that will produce strong hydrological responses. We focus on two intense Mediterranean rain events of different types that occured in 2002. Radar and rain gauge measurements are combined to have a data set with a high spatial (1 × 1 km2) and temporal (5 min) resolution. Two thresholds are determined using the quantiles of the rain rate values, corresponding to the precipitating system at large and to the intense rain cells. A method based on indicator variograms associated with the thresholds is proposed in order to automatically quantify the spatial structure at each time step during the entire rain events. Therefore, its variability within intense rain events can be investigated. The spatial structure is found to be homogeneous over periods that can be related to the dynamics of the events. Moreover, a decreasing time resolution (i.e., increasing accumulation period) of the rain rate data will stretch the spatial structure because of the advection of rain cells by the wind. These quantitative characteristics of the spatial structure of intense Mediterranean rainfall will be useful to improve our understanding of the dynamics of flash floods. 相似文献
16.
本文采用经验正交函数展开(EOF)及相关分析等方法,使用中国气象局整编的160站1951~2005年月平均降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料研究了中国东部夏季降水准两年周期振荡的空间模态及其大气环流背景场.结果表明:(1)中国地区降水季节性差异明显,夏季是主要的降水期并具有明显的准两年周期振荡(TBO)特征,中国东部地区是降水TBO方差变化最大的区域.(2)中国东部夏季降水TBO存在两个主要的空间模态,第1模态以27°N为界南北成反位相的变化关系,降水振幅较大;第2模态降水振幅相对较小,大值中心位于河套-华北地区.(3)形成中国东部夏季降水TBO的两个主要空间模态环流背景场明显不同.第1模态与西太平洋海温成正相关,与东太平洋海温成负相关.第2模态则主要与日本海附近的海温成正相关.当夏季降水TBO以江淮偏多时(第1模态),西太平洋海温偏高,东太平洋海温偏低,中国东部及沿海上空850 hPa有异常反气旋,500 hPa高度相关场东亚上空呈"正负正"波列特征,200 hPa南亚高压加强,西风急流位置偏南.当夏季降水TBO降水位置偏北时(第2模态),中国东部及沿海上空有异常气旋,200 hPa南亚高压偏弱,西风急流位置偏北. 相似文献
17.
An ensemble of stochastic daily rainfall projections has been generated for 30 stations across south‐eastern Australia using the downscaling nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model, which was driven by atmospheric predictors from four climate models for three IPCC emissions scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1) and for two periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100). The results indicate that the annual rainfall is projected to decrease for both periods for all scenarios and climate models, with the exception of a few scenarios of no statistically significant changes. However, there is a seasonal difference: two downscaled GCMs consistently project a decline of summer rainfall, and two an increase. In contrast, all four downscaled GCMs show a decrease of winter rainfall. Because winter rainfall accounts for two‐thirds of the annual rainfall and produces the majority of streamflow for this region, this decrease in winter rainfall would cause additional water availability concerns in the southern Murray–Darling basin, given that water shortage is already a critical problem in the region. In addition, the annual maximum daily rainfall is projected to intensify in the future, particularly by the end of the 21st century; the maximum length of consecutive dry days is projected to increase, and correspondingly, the maximum length of consecutive wet days is projected to decrease. These changes in daily sequencing, combined with fewer events of reduced amount, could lead to drier catchment soil profiles and further reduce runoff potential and, hence, also have streamflow and water availability implications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
S. Abhilash A. K. Sahai K. Mohankumar John P. George Someshwar Das 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2012,169(11):2047-2070
In this paper the impact of Doppler weather radar (DWR) reflectivity and radial velocity observations for the short range forecasting of a tropical storm and associated rainfall event have been examined. Doppler radar observations of a tropical storm case that occurred during 29–30 October 2006 from SHARDWR (13.6° N, 80.2° E) are assimilated in the WRF 3DVAR system. The observation operator for radar reflectivity and radial velocity is included within latest version of WRF 3DVAR system. Keeping all model physics the same, three experiments were conducted at a horizontal resolution of 30?km. In the control experiment (CTRL), NCEP Final Analysis (FNL) interpolated to the model grid was used as the initial condition for 48-h free forecast. In the second experiment (NODWR), 6-h assimilation cycles have been carried out using all conventional (radiosonde and surface data) and non-conventional (satellite) observations from the Global Telecommunication System (GTS). The third experiment (DWR) is the same as the second, except Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity observations are also used in the assimilation cycle. Continuous 6-h assimilation cycle employed in the WRF-3DVAR system shows positive impact on the rainfall forecast. Assimilation of DWR data creates several small scale features near the storm centre. Additional sensitivity experiments were conducted to study the individual impact of reflectivity and radial velocity in the assimilation cycle. Radar data assimilation with reflectivity alone produced large analysis response on both thermodynamical and dynamical fields. However, radial velocity assimilation impacted only on dynamical fields. Analysis increments with radar reflectivity and radial velocity produce adjustments in both dynamical and thermodynamical fields. Verification of QPF skill shows that radar data assimilation has a considerable impact on the short range precipitation forecast. Improvement of the QPF skill with radar data assimilation is more clearly seen in the heavy rainfall (for thresholds >7?mm) event than light rainfall (for thresholds of 1 and 3?mm). The spatial pattern of rainfall is well simulated by the DWR experiment and is comparable to TRMM observations. 相似文献
19.
The cold rain‐on‐snow event of June 2013 in the Canadian Rockies — characteristics and diagnosis 
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下载免费PDF全文 The June 2013 flood in the Canadian Rockies featured rain‐on‐snow (ROS) runoff generation at alpine elevations that contributed to the high streamflows observed during the event. Such a mid‐summer ROS event has not been diagnosed in detail, and a diagnosis may help to understand future high discharge‐producing hydrometeorological events in mountainous cold regions. The alpine hydrology of the flood was simulated using a physically based model created with the modular cold regions hydrological modelling platform. The event was distinctive in that, although at first, relatively warm rain fell onto existing snowdrifts inducing ROS melt; the rainfall turned to snowfall as the air mass cooled and so increased snowcover and snowpacks in alpine regions, which then melted rapidly from ground heat fluxes in the latter part of the event. Melt rates of existing snowpacks were substantially lower during the ROS than during the relatively sunny periods preceding and following the event as a result of low wind speeds, cloud cover and cool temperatures. However, at the basin scale, melt volumes increased during the event as a result of increased snowcover from the fresh snowfall and consequent large ground heat contributions to melt energy, causing snowmelt to enhance rainfall–runoff by one fifth. Flow pathways also shifted during the event from relatively slow sub‐surface flow prior to the flood to an even contribution from sub‐surface and fast overland flow during and immediately after the event. This early summer, high precipitation ROS event was distinctive for the impact of decreased solar irradiance in suppressing melt rates, the contribution of ground heat flux to basin scale snowmelt after precipitation turned to snowfall, the transition from slow sub‐surface to fast overland flow runoff as the sub‐surface storage saturated and streamflow volumes that exceeded precipitation. These distinctions show that summer, mountain ROS events should be considered quite distinct from winter ROS and can be important contributors to catastrophic events. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
In this paper, progressive methods for assessing drought severity from diverse points of view were conceived. To select a fundamental drought index, the performances of the Effective Drought Index (EDI) and 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, and 24-month Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPIs) were compared for drought monitoring data accumulated over 200-year period from 1807 to 2006 for Seoul, Korea. The results confirmed that the EDI was more efficient than the SPIs in assessing both short and long-term droughts.We then proposed the following methods for modifying and supplementing the EDI: (1) CEDI, a corrected EDI that considers the rapid runoff of water resources after heavy rainfall; (2) AEDI, an accumulated EDI that considers the drought severity and duration of individual drought events; and (3) YAEDI, a year-accumulated negative EDI representing annual drought severity. In addition to these indices, to more accurately measure and diagnose droughts, we proposed the utilization of (4) the Available Water Resources Index (AWRI), an existing index that expresses the actual amount of available water.Using the improved methods above, we assessed and summarized important droughts that have occurred in Seoul over the 200 years from 1807 to 2006. 相似文献