共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 125 毫秒
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本文选取由国际GPS服务中心(IGS)提供的北美中纬度地区GPS网TEC观测数据,通过多通道最大熵频谱分析方法研究了2005年（太阳活动低年）地磁活动平静期间日出和日落时由于日夜交替线的移动而激发的中尺度电离层扰动(MSTID),并统计分析其季节变化特性.结果表明：(1) 日出或日落期间,在中纬度地区经常观测到由日夜交替线移动激发的中尺度电离层扰动.扰动主要沿日夜交替线运动方向传播,平均持续时间约2～3 h;振幅在0.2～0.8 TECU之间,水平波长,水平相速度和周期分别为300±150 km,150±80 m/s和25±15 min;(2) 由日夜交替线移动激发的中尺度电离层扰动在春秋分出现率较少;在夏季,扰动在黄昏时出现率达最大值,在日出后少量出现;而冬季则日出后的扰动效应更为明显.分析表明,在中纬地区,这种扰动出现率随季节的变化与不同季节的日出日落时刻太阳EUV辐射通量变化过程的快慢,以及电离层中离子损失过程快慢有关. 相似文献
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利用GAMIT软件对北京市GPS形变监测网的2004年6月6日到6月12日的数据进行了处理,在处理过程中,对IGS站的选取分了4种情况:①选取13个IGS站;②选取10个IGS站;③选取6个IGS站;④选取1个IGS站。并对4种情况得出的结果从基线重复率WRMS、基线分量的偏差、标准化均方根差NRMS进行了比较,得出以下结论:对于100km内的小区域GPS形变监测网,使用GAMIT软件处理GPS观测数据,最好选取IGS站为区域网提供参考框架;同时对小区域的GPS形变监测网选取6个IGS站就比较合适,解算结果的精度可以达到监测地壳形变的要求;IGS站并不是数量上一定要多,但空间分布要尽量均匀,测站的近似坐标尽量准确。 相似文献
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应用地基GPS沿倾斜路径方向遥测大气水汽总量，是获得测站周围水汽三维空间分布信息(水汽层析)的基础.本文介绍了地基GPS沿倾斜路径方向遥感大气水汽总量的原理和方法；首先用湿梯度、后处理残差联合计算接收机上空不同方位上大气水汽各向异性成分，在此基础上重构倾斜路径水汽总量.为验证GPS观测结果精度，用微波辐射计（WVR）与GPS一起进行了联合观测，不同观测地点和时间的对比结果表明，二者root mean square (RMS)误差小于4mm，证明应用此种方法地基GPS可较精确地反演出倾斜路径方向大气水汽总量，而且这种反演方法适合于近实时大气遥感探测.地基GPS测量具有全天候可连续观测等优点，可以弥补常规观测的不足，为气候研究提供高精度且连续的水汽数据资料；组网观测可以为数值天气预报提供好的初始场，提高模式预报精度. 相似文献
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数据同化是在基于物理机制的背景模型上,融合时空不规则分布的观测数据的一种现报方法.同化能够有效弥补数据的时空局限和模型的精度偏差,使二者相互匹配从而获得更加合理可信的模拟效果.本研究利用电离层数据同化方法,针对中国及周边区域（15°N-55°N,70°E-140°E）构建了电离层总电子含量（TEC）同化现报系统.系统使用国际参考电离层（IRI）作为背景场,利用中国科学院空间环境监测网和国际GNSS服务组织（IGS）的部分地基GNSS台站数据作为观测值,并采用三维变分与Gauss-Markov卡尔曼滤波相结合的算法进行背景场和观测值的数据同化,生成覆盖中国及周边区域的电离层TEC和GPS单频接收机延迟误差的格点化准实时现报地图,并在中国科学院空间环境预报中心（http：//sepc.ac.cn/TEC_chn.php）网上发布,每15 min进行更新.该系统是我国基于同化算法的电离层现报系统之一,已用于中国及周边区域的电离层环境实时监测,可为卫星导航、雷达成像、短波通信等科学研究和工程应用提供相对及时、准确、有效的电离层TEC和误差修正信息. 相似文献
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《中国科学:地球科学》2016,(1)
局地强降水可以引发山洪、泥石流等次生灾害,目前准确预报局地强降水依然是天气预报业务的难点.本文针对一次发生在西北太平洋副热带高压边缘、导致12人死亡的极端局地强降水事件,利用集合卡尔曼滤波(En KF)开展多普勒雷达径向风观测资料同化试验,并对En KF同化过程不确定性进行分析.结果表明:不同化观测资料,采用单一初值的确定性预报或增加初值扰动、采用多物理过程的集合预报均不能正确预报强降水发生位置,而利用En KF同化雷达径向速度观测资料能有效改进确定性和集合预报效果,特别是强降水位置预报.通过En KF同化雷达资料,建立深厚的中尺度对流系统是改进降水预报效果的直接原因.在具备了对流发生条件的大尺度环境背景场中,上游地区、对流层中下层经向风和水汽场的合理扰动是影响同化过程和降水预报的关键因素.该个例预报过程受实际可预报性影响,具有不确定性,大尺度初始条件的差异或初始扰动场振幅偏小导致的En KF分析场差异都会对模拟结果造成较大影响,而采用En KF循环同化有助于提高该个例的预报准确性.敏感性试验还表明未来通过改进数值模式或改善观测系统,提供更准确观测信息,可以对此类短时强降水事件做出更准确预报. 相似文献
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本文给出了一个基于Gauss-Markov卡尔曼滤波的电离层数据同化系统的初步构建和试验结果.我们选择中国及周边地区部分涉及电离层观测的台站(包括子午工程台站、中国地壳形变网和部分IGS台站)作为观测系统进行模拟试验,背景场利用IRI模式,观测值则由NeQuick模式计算得到.我们的同化结果表明,采用Kalman滤波算法,把部分斜TEC同化到背景模式当中,能够获得较好的同化结果,说明我们设计的算法可行、所选择的各种参数比较合理,采用Gauss-Markov假设进行短期预报也取得了较合理的结果.本项研究经过进一步的改进和完善,可以用来对中国地区的电离层进行现报和短期预报,一方面满足相关空间工程应用,另一方面可以提升现有观测系统的科学意义. 相似文献
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自1995年起,国际南极研究科学委员会（SCAR,the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research）组织实施全南极国际GPS（Global Positioning System）联测.本文运用GAMIT/GLOBK软件分析了从1997到2004年的SCAR GPS数据和在南极的一些GPS永久跟踪站数据.数据处理分为两步,第一步：运用GAMIT软件进行单天解算,估计站位置、轨道等参数,其数据源主要有以下三类：(1) SCAR GPS观测站;（2）南极的连续跟踪站;（3）南极及其周边的部分IGS站;第二步：运用GLOBK软件加入SOPAC（Scripps Orbit and Permanent Array Center）的全球GPS子网（IGS1、IGS2、IGS3）进行全球网平差解算测站位置和速度.然后,参照地质构造讨论网的形变,分析了南极板块的现今地壳运动.GPS结果显示南极板块的欧拉角速度是0.224(°)/Ma,旋转极的位置为（58.69°N,128.29°W）,这与NNR-NUVEL-1A预测的和一些前期GPS研究的成果有着较大的不同.相对于澳大利亚板块,本文结果同其他模型的旋转角速度相差约0.01(°)/Ma,旋转极的位置相差在4°以内,不同模型之间的差异相对较小.这为描述南极板块运动提供了一个更为精确的新的运动模型. 相似文献
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Teleconnection between the Indian summer monsoon onset and the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
Based on the Indian and Chinese precipitation data and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis circulation data, the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) onset and the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley has been discussed by the methods of correlation analysis and composite analysis. The results show that the date of ISM onset over Kerala in the southwestern coast of the Indian Peninsula is about two weeks earlier than the beginning of the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley. After the outbreak of ISM, the teleconnection mode sets up from the western coast of India via the Bay of Bengal (BOB) to the Yangtze River Valley and southern Japan. It is different both in time and space from the telecon- nection mode which is from the northwest of India via the Tibetan Plateau to northern China. The for- mer mode is defined as the "south" teleconnection of the Asian summer monsoon, forming in the pe- riod of ISM onset; while the latter mode is called the "north" teleconnection, mainly occurring in the Asian monsoon culminant period. During the process of the "south" teleconnection’s formation, the Asian monsoon circulation has experienced a series of important changes: ISM onset, the northward movement of the south Asia high (SAH), the onset vortex occurrence, the eastward extension of the stronger tropical westerly belt, and the northeastward jump of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), etc. Consequently, since ISM sets up over Kerala, the whole Asian continent is covered by the upper SAH after about two weeks, while in the mid- and lower troposphere, a strong wind belt forms from the Arabian Sea via the southern India, BOB and the South China Sea (SCS), then along the western flank of WPSH, to the Yangtze River Valley and southern Japan. With the northward moving of the subtropical jet streams, the upper westerly jet stream and the low level jet have been coupled ver- tically over east Asia, while the Yangtze River Valley happens to locate in the ascending motion area between the upper jet stream and the low level jet, i.e. right of the entrance of the upper jet stream and left of the low level jet. Such a structure of the vertical circulation can trigger the Meiyu onset over the Yangtze River Valley. 相似文献
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Space geodetic techniques (e.g., Global Positioning System, GPS and very long baseline interference, VLBI) have been widely used to determine the precipitable water vapor (PWV) for meteorology and climatology, which was verified by comparing with co-located independent technique observations. However, most of these comparisons have been conducted using only short-time spanning observations at several stations. The goal of this study is to identify and quantify the systematic errors between VLBI and GPS PWV estimates using a 5-year (2002–2007), PWV data set constructed from co-located measurements and radiosonde data as well. It has found systematic errors between VLBI and GPS PWV estimations from comparisons with long-term co-located GPS measurements. The total mean VLBI PWVs are systematically smaller than GPS estimates with 0.8–2.2 mm for all sites, but can be as much as 15–30%. The subdiurnal PWV variation magnitudes and long-term trends between VLBI and GPS are nearly similar, but the VLBI-derived PWV trends are systematically smaller than GPS estimates with about 0.1±0.02 mm/year. These systematic errors in PWV estimates between VLBI and GPS are probably due to technique own problems, different used elevation angles and co-location separation. 相似文献
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Z. Sokol 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2006,50(1):105-120
A statistical post-processing methodology for application to numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs for precipitation
forecast is proposed. The post-processing is based on the model output statistics approach. The statistical relationships
are described by the multiple linear regression model, which is complemented by an iteration procedure to further correct
the regression outputs. Prognostic fields of the ALADIN/LACE (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational/Limited
Area Modelling in Central Europe) NWP model are used for the forecast of 6-hourly areal precipitation amounts at 15 river
basins. The NWP model integration starts at 00UTC and forecasts are calculated for lead times of +12, +18, +24 and +30 hours.
The post-processing models are developed separately for each lead time and for separate warm (April to September) and cool
(October to March) seasons. The forecasts are focused on large precipitation amounts. Using all the combinations, data from
four years (1999–2002) are divided into calibration data (3 years), where the models are developed, and verification data.
The models are evaluated by examining the root-mean-square error (RMSE), bias, and correlation coefficient (CC) on the verification
data samples.
The results show that the additional iteration procedure increases the forecast accuracy for a given range of precipitation
amounts and simultaneously does not deteriorate the bias, a situation which can arise when negative regression outputs are
set to zero. The post-processing method improves the forecast of the NWP model in terms of RMSE and CC. For large precipitation
amounts during the summer season, the decrease of RMSE reaches 10% to 20% depending upon the applied method of verification.
For the cool season, the decrease is somewhat smaller (7% to 15%). 相似文献
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DATA COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS BETWEEN SFM DATA AND DGPS DATA: A CASE STUDY FROM FAULT SCARP IN THE EAST BANK OF HONGSHUIBA RIVER,NORTHERN MARGIN OF THE QILIAN SHAN 
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下载免费PDF全文 With the development of the techniques acquiring high-resolution digital terrain data,the digital terrain data acquisition technology has been widespread applied to the geoscience research.A revolutionary,low-cost and simply operative SfM (Structure from Motion) technology will make obtain high-resolution DEM data more convenient for researches on active tectonics.This paper summarizes the basic principles and workflows of SfM technology and processes and selects the Hongshuiba River area along the northern margin of the Qilian Shan to conduct data collection.We use a series of digital pictures to produce a texture with geographic information,in which data resolution is 6.73cm/pix and average density of point cloud is 220.667 point/m2.The coverage area is 0.286km2.Further,in order to compare the accuracy between SfM data and differential GPS (DGPS) data in details,SfM data are vertically shifted and tilt-corrected.After optimizing corrections of SfM data,the absolute value of elevation difference between two data substantially concentrates around 20cm,roughly equivalent to 2-folds of data error only after the elevation error correction.Elevation difference between two data is 10~15cm in 90% confidence interval.The maximum error is about 30cm,but accounts for less than 10%.Along the direction of fault trace,the height of fault scarp extracted from SfM data shows that vertical displacement of the latest tectonic activity in the east bank of Hongshuiba River is about 1m,and some minimum scarps height may be 0.3m.The results show SfM technology with high vertical accuracy can be able to replace differential GPS in high-precision topographic survey.After correcting of SfM data,elevation difference still exists,which may be associated with methods of generating DEM and SfM data accuracy,which in turn is controlled by the number and distribution of Ground Control Points (GCPs),photos density and camera shooting height,but also related to surface features,Fodongmiao-Hongyazi Fault 相似文献
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对流层延迟是卫星导航定位的主要误差源,气象观测的数值预报资料可用来计算对流层延迟改正量.本文通过分布于亚洲地区的49个GPS台站一年的实测ZTD资料,对利用欧洲中尺度天气预报中心(ECMWF)分析资料、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)再分析资料和NCEP预报资料,计算对流层天顶延迟(ZTD)改正的有效性和可能达到的精度进行了评估,分析了ECMWF和NCEP在亚洲地区的适用程度和其分辨率对计算ZTD精度的影响.研究结果表明:(1)相对于 GPS实测ZTD,用ECMWF资料计算ZTD的bias和rms分别为-1.0 cm 和2.7 cm,优于NCEP再分析资料,可用于高精度ZTD研究和应用;NCEP预报数据计算ZTD的bias和rms分别为2.4 cm 和 6.8 cm,足以满足广大GNSS实时导航定位用户对流层延迟改正的需要.(2)bias和rms呈现明显的季节性变化,总体上夏季大,冬季小;在空间分布上随着纬度的变化不明显,但随高度的增加rms总体上有递减趋势.另外还发现,亚洲东部地区夏季日平均bias和rms和南部热带地区冬季的日平均bias和rms变化相对较大.(3)ECMWF2.5°和0.5°的资料进行了对比分析,发现0.5°分辨率资料的rms比2.5°减小1~5 mm.这些结果,为在亚洲地区的空间大地测量、导航定位和INSAR等工作中,应用ECMWF/NCEP的资料进行对流层大气延迟改正的有效性和可能达到的精度提供了重要参考. 相似文献
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R. Orús M. Hernndez-Pajares J. M. Juan J. Sanz M. García-Fernndez 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2002,64(18)
The existence of a worldwide international GPS service (IGS) permanent network of dual-frequency receivers makes the computation of global ionospheric maps (GIMs) of total electron content (TEC) feasible. The GIMs computed by the IGS Associate Analysis Centers on a daily basis and by other kinds of forecast GIMs, which can be computed from, for instance, the international reference ionosphere (IRI) model, and the GPS broadcast models in the navigation message, can be applied to a broad diversity of fields, for instance as, navigation and time transfer.In this context, the performance of different kinds of models are presented in order to determine the accuracy of the different GIM. This is carried out by comparison with the TOPEX data that provides an independent and precise (at the level of few TECU) vertical TEC determination over the oceans and seas. Thus, the obtained accuracies, in terms of global relative error, ranging from 54% corresponding to the GPS broadcast model, to about 41% corresponding to IRI climatological model, and to less than 30% corresponding to GPS data driven models. 相似文献
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针对目前尚缺乏客观的流域梅雨划分指标的现状,本文依据最新的梅雨监测国家标准与NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,利用19862016年太湖流域水文年鉴逐日雨量整编资料,重新划分了太湖流域入/出梅日期,计算了梅雨特征量,构建了梅雨洪水指数(RFI),并对梅雨期超设计、超警戒洪水年的环流异常成因进行分析.研究表明:(1)新标准下太湖流域多年平均在6月17日入梅,7月11日出梅,梅雨期长度24 d,梅雨量266.8 mm;与历史序列相比,新标准确定的梅雨量一致率较高,其次是入梅时间和出梅时间.(2)雨日数和副高脊线北跳时间是影响入/出梅确定的两个重要因素,新标准将1992、2013年定为空梅,1986、1987、1989、1996、2005年历史入/出梅日期向后调整,1988、2007年出梅日期向前调整,更为合理地反映了梅雨的高温高湿气候特征,客观性较强.(3)梅雨量越大,雨强越大,太湖水位越高,流域越易涝;以梅雨洪水指数作为参考因子,考虑到影响太湖洪水形成的两个关键因子(梅雨期起涨水位、最大7 d降水量占梅雨量的比例),对入梅起涨水位异常偏高、因集中强降雨引起太湖洪水的指示意义较强.(4)高低纬环流配置关系密切,来自西太平洋经南海的偏南气流、印度洋经孟加拉湾的西南暖湿气流汇合后与来自北方的冷空气在太湖流域交汇,太湖流域垂直上升运动异常强烈,触发降雨层结不稳定能量释放,导致暴雨持续形成洪水. 相似文献