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1.
Driven by the global model,Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1(BCC_CSM1.1),climate change over China in the 21st century is simulated by a regional climate model(RegCM4.0)under the new emission scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways—RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.This is based on a period of transient simulations from 1950 to2099,with a grid spacing of 50 km.The present paper focuses on the annual mean temperature and precipitation in China over this period,with emphasis on their future changes.Validation of model performance reveals marked improvement of the RegCM4.0 model in reproducing present day temperature and precipitation relative to the driving BCC_CSM1.1 model.Significant warming is simulated by both BCC_CSM1.1 and RegCM4.0,however,spatial distribution and magnitude differ between the simulations.The high emission scenario RCP8.5 results in greater warming compared to RCP4.5.The two models project different precipitation changes,characterized by a general increase in the BCC_CSM1.1,and broader areas with decrease in the RegCM4.0 simulations.  相似文献   

2.
Climate effects of land use change in China as simulated by a regional climate model (RegCM2)are investigated. The model is nested in one-way mode within a global coupled atmosphere-ocean model(CSIRO R21L9 AOGCM). Two multi-year simulations, one with current land use and the other with potential vegetation cover, are conducted. Statistically significant changes of precipitation, surface air temperature, and daily maximum and daily minimum temperature are analyzed based on the difference between the two simulations. The simulated effects of land use change over China include a decrease of mean annual precipitation over Northwest China, a region with a prevalence of arid and semi-arid areas;an increase of mean annual surfaoe air temperature over some areas; and a decrease of temperature along coastal areas. Summer mean daily maximum temperature increases in many locations, while winter mean daily minimum temperature decreases in East China and increases in Northwest China. The upper soil moisture decreases significantly across China. The results indicate that the same land use change may cause different climate effects in different regions depending on the surrounding environment and climate characteristics.  相似文献   

3.
The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change related to agriculture over China. The model is driven by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA40)data. Two sets of experiments for 15 yr (1987-2001) are conducted, one with the potential vegetation cover and the other the agricultural land use (AG). The results show that the AG effects on temperature are weak over northern China while in southern China a significant cooling is found in both winter (December-January-February) and summer (June-July-August). The mean cooling in the sub-regions of South China (SC) in winter and the sub-regions of Southeast (SE) China in summer are found to be the greatest,up to 0.5℃ and 0.8℃, respectively. In general, the change of AG leads to a decrease of annual mean temperature by 0.5-1℃ in southern China. Slight change of precipitation in western China and a decrease of precipitation in eastern China are simulated in winter, with the maximum reduction reaching -7.5% over SE. A general decrease of precipitation over northern China and an increase over southern China are simulated in summer,in particular over SE where the increase of precipitation can be up to 7.3%. The AG effects on temperature and precipitation show strong interannual variability. Comparison of the climate effects between AG and the present-day land use (LU) is also performed. In southern China, the ratio of temperature (precipitation)changes caused by AG and LU is greater than (closer to) the ratio of the number of grid cells with changed vegetation cover due to AG and LU variations.  相似文献   

4.
The regional climate model （RegCM3）, developed by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics and nested in one-way mode within the latest version of Community Climate System Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, is used to conduct a set of experiments to examine its capability of climate simulation for the past 50 years and to explore possible changes in extreme precipitation （EP） in the next 100 years under the A1B scenario. Compared with the observation from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation, RegCM3 reasonably reproduces the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and EP in eastern China. Based on the present-day analysis, this study examines the changes in monsoonal precipitation over eastern China in mid- and late-21st century relative to the reference period of 1970-1999. It is found that the precipitation will increase over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas to its north, and decrease over coastal areas to its south, especially in late-21st century. The various indices reflecting extreme events showed that the EP will enhance 10%-15% over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas to its north, and weaken over the areas to its south. The summer monsoon will strengthen and shift northwards under SERS A1B, bringing more water vapor and energy from the Indian Ocean and South China Sea for precipitation and eventually more precipitation over northern China.  相似文献   

5.
Regional climate model （RegCM3） was applied to explore the possible effects of land use changes （e.g., grassland degradation in this study） on local and regional climate over the Sanjiangyuan region in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Two multiyear （1991-1999） numerical simulation experiments were conducted： one was a control experiment with current land use and the other was a desertification experiment with potential grassland degradation. Preliminary analysis indicated that RegCM3 is appropriate for simulating land- climate interactions, as the patterns of the simulated surface air temperature, the summer precipitation, and the geopotential height fields are consistent with the observed values. The desertification over the Sanjiangyuan region will cause different climate effects in different regions depending on the surrounding environment and climate characteristics. The area with obvious change in surface air temperature inducing by grassland degradation over the Sanjiangyuan region is located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A winter surface air temperature drop and the other seasons＇ surface air temperature increase will be observed over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on two numerical simulation experiments. Surface air temperature changes in spring are the largest （0.46℃）, and in winter are the smallest （smaller than 0.03℃）, indicating an increasing mean annual surface air temperature over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Surface air temperature changes will be smaller and more complex over the surrounding region, with minor winter changes for the regions just outside the plateau and notable summer changes over the north of the Yangtze River. The reinforced summer heat source in the plateau will lead to an intensification of heat low, causing the West Pacific subtropical high to retreat eastward. This will be followed by a decrease of precipitation in summer. The plateau＇s climate tends to become warm and dry due to the grassland degradation over the Sanjiangyuan region.  相似文献   

6.
Based on gridded meteorological data for the period 1981–2100 from the RegCM3 regional model, the changing trends of climatic resources in Northeast China are analyzed, and the distributions of maize varieties are accordingly adjusted. In order to explore the effects of different adaptation countermeasures on climatic productivity and meteorological suitability in the future, maize cultivars with resistance to high temperatures and/or drought are selected. The results show that, in the future, there is likely to be a significant increase in thermal resources, and potential atmospheric evaporation will increase correspondingly.Meanwhile, radiation is predicted to increase significantly during 2041–2070 in the growing season. However, changes in precipitation are unlikely to be sufficient enough to offset the intensification in atmospheric evaporation caused by the temperature increase. Water resources and high temperatures are found to be the two major factors constraining grain yield. The results also show that the warming climate will be favorable for maize production where thermal resources are already limited, such as in central and northern Heilongjiang Province and eastern Jilin Province; while in areas that are already relatively warm, such as Liaoning Province, climatic productivity will be reduced. The climatic productivity and the meteorological suitability of maize are found to improve when the planting of resistant varieties is modeled. The utilization of agricultural climatic resources through the adaptation countermeasures of maize varieties is to increase obviously with time. Specifically, maize with drought-resistant properties will have a marked influence on meteorological suitability during 2011–2070, with suitable areas expanding. During 2071–2100, those maize varieties with their upper limit of optimum temperature and maximum temperature increased by 2℃, or water requirement reduced to 94%, or upper limit of optimum temperature and maximum temperature increased by 1℃ and water requirement reduced to 98%, all exhibit significant differences in climatic potential productivity, compared to the present-day varieties. The meteorological suitability of maize is predicted to increase in some parts of Heilongjiang Provine, with the eastern boundary of the "unavailable" area shifting westward.  相似文献   

7.
Impacts of greenhouse effects(2×CO2) on climate change over China as simulated by a regional climate model have been investigated.The model was based on RegCM2 and is nested in one-way mode within a global coupled atmosphere-ocean model(CSIRO R21L9 AOGCM).Two multi-year simulations,the control run with normal CO2 concentration and sensitivity run with doubled CO2 concentration are conducted. As Part II of the publications,with a brief analysis of the 2×CO2 experiment by CSIRO R21Lg,results of the 2×CO2 simulation by RegCM2 are analyzed in detail. Results of the RegCM show a remarkably warming over China with an increment ranging from 2.2℃ in southern China to 2.8℃ in northern due to greenhouse effect.The regional averaged annual temperature increase is 2.5℃.The warming is greater in winter and spring.Daily maximum and minimum temperatures increase also over China which lead to much more hot spell days in summer and less cold spell days in winter. Precipitation increases in all seasons of the year,with the greatest found in summer.Annual mean precipitation increases significantly in western China,parts of the area in south of the Yangtze River and northern part of the Northeast.while a decrease in the area from southern part of the Northeast to North China is simulated.The regional averaged annual increase of precipitation is 12%.More heavy rain events are found noticeably in southern China.The simulated tropical storms affecting and landing over China tend to increase.Analysis on the simulation of circulation pattern showed that the 500 hPa height in East Asia might rise significantly.  相似文献   

8.
Progress in Semi-arid Climate Change Studies in China   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
This article reviews recent progress in semi-arid climate change research in China.Results indicate that the areas of semiarid regions have increased rapidly during recent years in China,with an increase of 33%during 1994-2008 compared to 1948-62.Studies have found that the expansion rate of semi-arid areas over China is nearly 10 times higher than that of arid and sub-humid areas,and is mainly transformed from sub-humid/humid regions.Meanwhile,the greatest warming during the past 100 years has been observed over semi-arid regions in China,and mainly induced by radiatively forced processes.The intensity of the regional temperature response over semi-arid regions has been amplified by land-atmosphere interactions and human activities.The decadal climate variation in semi-arid regions is modulated by oceanic oscillations,which induce land-sea and north-south thermal contrasts and affect the intensities of westerlies,planetary waves and blocking frequencies.In addition,the drier climates in semi-arid regions across China are also associated with the weakened East Asian summer monsoon in recent years.Moreover,dust aerosols in semi-arid regions may have altered precipitation by affecting the local energy and hydrological cycles.Finally,semi-arid regions in China are projected to continuously expand in the 21st century,which will increase the risk of desertification in the near future.  相似文献   

9.
Based on multiresource high-resolution in situ and satellite merged observations along with model simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment(CORDEX), this study first investigated historical changes in extreme temperature and precipitation during the period of 1979–2018 in areas along the Sichuan–Tibet Railway, and then projected the future changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature and precipitation under the RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. This paper is expected to enhance our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability in the extreme temperature and precipitation along the Sichuan–Tibet Railway, and to provide scientific basis to advance the Sichuan–Tibet Railway construction and operation. The results show that temperatures in the Sichuan–Tibet region display a noticeable warming trend in the past40 years, and the increase of minimum temperature is significantly higher than that of maximum temperature in the northwest of the region. Significant increase of precipitation is found mainly over the northwest of the Tibetan Plateau. Except for Lhasa and its surrounding areas, precipitation over other areas along the Sichuan–Tibet Railway shows no significant change in the past 40 years, as indicated in five datasets; however, precipitation along the railway has shown a remarkable decrease in the past 20 years in the TRMM satellite dataset. The warm days and nights have clearly increased by 6 and 5 day decade1-for 1979–2019, while cold days and nights have markedly decreased by about 6.6 and 3.6 day decade-1, respectively. In the past 20 years, the areas with increased precipitation from very wet days and extremely wet days are mainly distributed to the north of the Sichuan–Tibet Railway, while in the areas along the railway itself, the very wet days and extremely wet days are decreasing. Under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, the temperature in the Sichuan–Tibet region will increase significantly, and the frequency of extreme high(low) temperature events in the late 21 st century(2070–2099) will greatly increase(decrease) by about 50%–80%(10%) compared with occurrences in the late 20 th century(1970–1999). Meanwhile, the frequency of very wet days and extremely wet days in the Sichuan–Tibet region will increase by about 2%–19% and 2%–5%, respectively, and the areas along the Sichuan–Tibet Railway will be affected by more extreme high temperature and extreme precipitation events.  相似文献   

10.
Human-induced land use changes and the resulting alterations in vegetation features are major but poorly recognized drivers of regional climatic patterns.In order to investigate the impacts of anthropogenically-induced seasonal vegetation cover changes on regional climate in China,harmonic analysis is applied to 1982-2000 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer(AVVHRR)-derived normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) time series(ten day interval data).For two climatic divisions of South China,it is shown that the first harmonic term is in phase with air temperature,while the second and third harmonics are in phase with agricultural cultivation.The Penman-Monteith Equation and the Complementary Relationship Areal Evapotranspiration(CRAE) model suggest that monthly mean evapotranspiration is out of phase with temperature and precipitation in regions with signiffcant second or third harmonics.Finally,seasonal vegetation cover changes associated with agricultural cultivation are identiffed:for cropped areas,the temperature and precipitation time series have a single maximum value,while the monthly evapotranspiration time series has a bimodal distribution.It is hypothesized that multi-cropping causes the land surface albedo to sharply increase during harvesting,thereby altering the energy distribution ratio and contributing to observed seasonal vegetation cover changes.  相似文献   

11.
The Yangtze River Delta Economic Belt is one of the most active and developed areas in China and has experienced quick urbanization with fast economic development. The weather research and forecasting model (WRF), with a single-layer urban canopy parameterization scheme, is used to simulate the influence of urbanization on climate at local and regional scales in this area. The months January and July, over a 5-year period (2003–2007), were selected to represent the winter and summer climate. Two simulation scenarios were designed to investigate the impacts of urbanization: (1) no urban areas and (2) urban land cover determined by MODIS satellite observations in 2005. Simulated near-surface temperature, wind speed and specific humidity agree well with the corresponding measurements. By comparing the simulations of the two scenarios, differences in near-surface temperature, wind speed and precipitation were quantified. The conversion of rural land (mostly irrigation cropland) to urban land cover results in significant changes to near-surface temperature, humidity, wind speed and precipitation. The mean near-surface temperature in urbanized areas increases on average by 0.45?±?0.43°C in winter and 1.9?±?0.55°C in summer; the diurnal temperature range in urbanized areas decreases on average by 0.13?±?0.73°C in winter and 0.55?±?0.84°C in summer. Precipitation increases about 15% over urban or leeward areas in summer and changes slightly in winter. The urbanization impact in summer is stronger and covers a larger area than that in winter due to the regional east-Asian monsoon climate characterized by warm, wet summers and cool, dry winters.  相似文献   

12.
Recent temperature projections for urban areas have only been able to reflect the expected change due to greenhouse-induced warming, with little attempt to predict urbanisation effects. This research examines temperature changes due to both global warming and urbanisation independently and applies them differentially to urban and rural areas over a sub-tropical city, Hong Kong. The effect of global warming on temperature is estimated by regressing IPCC data from eight Global Climate Models against the background temperature recorded at a rural climate station. Results suggest a mean background temperature increase of 0.67 °C by 2039. To model temperature changes for different degrees of urbanization, long-term temperature records along with a measureable urbanisation parameter, plot ratio surrounding different automatic weather stations (AWS) were used. Models representing daytime and nighttime respectively were developed, and a logarithmic relationship between the rate of temperature change and plot ratio (degree of urbanisation) is observed. Baseline air temperature patterns over Hong Kong for 2009 were derived from two ASTER thermal satellite images, for summer daytime and nighttime respectively. Dynamic raster modeling was employed to project temperatures to 2039 in 10-year intervals on a per-pixel basis according to the degree of urbanization predicted. Daytime and nighttime temperatures in the highly urbanized areas are expected to rise by ca. 2 °C by 2039. Validation by projecting observed temperature trends at AWS, gave low average RMS errors of 0.19 °C for daytime and 0.14 °C for nighttime, and suggests the reliability of the method.  相似文献   

13.
The urbanization of Daegu metropolitan region has progressed rapidly over the last 100 years, but changing land-use resulting from that urbanization has also caused the regional circulations to evolve. The effect of 100 years of urbanization on the regional circulations was simulated for the analysis using an A2C (Atmosphere to Computational Fluid Dynamics) model. Calm synoptic conditions and a stable lapse rate were assumed for the initial model atmosphere, with a horizontal grid resolution of 1 km. The simulation demonstrated that land-use changes have affected the Daegu metropolitan area’s regional circulations by deepening the convective boundary layer (CBL) over the urbanized area, resulting in deviations from mean surface temperature and surface wind fields. The last 100 years have seen the following changes in the region: 1) the urbanized area has increased by around 15 times, while the number of forests and paddy fields has rapidly decreased; 2) surface wind speeds have decreased by about 25% and 35% during the day and at night, respectively, and severe changes in wind direction have been noted over the urbanized areas; 3) regional warming has been around 1.5°C and 4°C in the daytime and early morning hours, respectively (in particular, warming in the early morning hours suggests the presence of overnight heat islands), and 4) sensible heat flux and CBL height have increased by about 40 W m?2 and 500 m for the period, respectively.  相似文献   

14.
The authors used a high-resolution regional climate model(RegCM3) coupled with a chemistry/aerosol module to simulate East Asian climate in 2006 and to test the climatic impacts of aerosols on regionalscale climate.The direct radiative forcing and climatic effects of aerosols(dust,sulfate,black carbon,and organic carbon) were discussed.The results indicated that aerosols generally produced negative radiative forcing at the top-of-the-atmosphere(TOA) over most areas of East Asia.The radiative forcing induced by aerosols exhibited significant seasonal and regional variations,with the strongest forcing occurring in summer.The aerosol feedbacks on surface air temperature and precipitation were clear.Surface cooling dominated features over the East Asian continental areas,which varied in the approximate range of-0.5 to-2°C with the maximum up to-3-C in summer over the deserts of West China.The aerosols induced complicated variations of precipitation.Except in summer,the rainfall generally varied in the range of-1 to 1 mm d-1 over most areas of China.  相似文献   

15.
In this study, regional climate changes for seventy years (1980–2049) over East Asia and the Korean Peninsula are investigated using the Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1 scenario via a high-resolution regional climate model, and the impact of global warming on extreme climate events over the study area is investigated. According to future climate predictions for East Asia, the annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.8°C and precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day?1 (2030–2049). The maximum wind intensity of tropical cyclones increases in the high wind categories, and the intra-seasonal variation of tropical cyclone occurrence changes in the western North Pacific. The predicted increase in surface air temperature results from increased longwave radiations at the surface. The predicted decrease in precipitation is caused primarily by northward shift of the monsoon rain-band due to the intensified subtropical high. In the nested higher-resolution (20 km) simulation over the Korean Peninsula, annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.5°C and annual mean precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day?1. Future surface air temperature over the Korean Peninsula increases in all seasons due to surface temperature warming, which leads to changes in the length of the four seasons. Future total precipitation over the Korean Peninsula is decreased, but the intensity and occurrence of heavy precipitation events increases. The regional climate changes information from this study can be used as a fruitful reference in climate change studies over East Asia and the Korean peninsula.  相似文献   

16.
Abstract

Current understanding of the possible nature of climatic change at the regional scale is limited by the spatial resolution of General Circulation Models (GCM). The use of GCM outputs without correction linked to the spatial variability of the variables can bring significant errors in their utilization at the regional scale. The potential of the Canadian GCM for regional applications in Quebec has been analysed by comparison to the climatic normals of temperature and precipitation, measured over the Quebec climatological network, on an annual and seasonal basis. This analysis has been undertaken with the support of a geographical information system (GIS) (PAMAP). In summary, a difference between the climatic normal and the GCM output has been estimated at 20% for temperature and 30% for precipitation. We present an analysis of a corrected regionalized scenario for the province of Quebec of the possible climatic change simulated by the Canadian GCM under the hypothesis of a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Results show an increase of the annual average temperature of 4° C for summer and 6°C for winter, associated with an average increase of 80 mm (10%) in annual precipitation, reaching 25% in some regions.  相似文献   

17.
Temperature is often seen as the dominant control on inter-decadal glacier volume changes. However, despite regional warming over the past half-century, the glaciers of Mount Shasta have continued to expand following a contraction during a prolonged drought in the early twentieth century, indicating a greater sensitivity to precipitation than temperature. We use the 110 year record of fluctuations in Mount Shasta’s glaciers and climate to calibrate numerical glacier models of the two largest glaciers. The reconstructed balance and volume histories show a much greater correlation to precipitation than temperature and significant correlation to oscillatory modes of Pacific Ocean climate. An approximately 20% increase in precipitation is needed for every 1°C increase in temperature to maintain stability. Under continued historical trends, oscillations in climate modes and random variability will dominate inter-decadal variability in ice volume. Under the strong warming trend predicted by a regional climate model, the temperature trend will be the dominant forcing resulting in near total loss of Mount Shasta’s glaciers by the end of the twenty-first century.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available to authorised users in the online version of this article at .  相似文献   

18.
We present seasonal precipitation reconstructions for European land areas (30°W to 40°E/30–71°N; given on a 0.5°×0.5° resolved grid) covering the period 1500–1900 together with gridded reanalysis from 1901 to 2000 (Mitchell and Jones 2005). Principal component regression techniques were applied to develop this dataset. A large variety of long instrumental precipitation series, precipitation indices based on documentary evidence and natural proxies (tree-ring chronologies, ice cores, corals and a speleothem) that are sensitive to precipitation signals were used as predictors. Transfer functions were derived over the 1901–1983 calibration period and applied to 1500–1900 in order to reconstruct the large-scale precipitation fields over Europe. The performance (quality estimation based on unresolved variance within the calibration period) of the reconstructions varies over centuries, seasons and space. Highest reconstructive skill was found for winter over central Europe and the Iberian Peninsula. Precipitation variability over the last half millennium reveals both large interannual and decadal fluctuations. Applying running correlations, we found major non-stationarities in the relation between large-scale circulation and regional precipitation. For several periods during the last 500 years, we identified key atmospheric modes for southern Spain/northern Morocco and central Europe as representations of two precipitation regimes. Using scaled composite analysis, we show that precipitation extremes over central Europe and southern Spain are linked to distinct pressure patterns. Due to its high spatial and temporal resolution, this dataset allows detailed studies of regional precipitation variability for all seasons, impact studies on different time and space scales, comparisons with high-resolution climate models as well as analysis of connections with regional temperature reconstructions. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at and is accessible for authorized users.  相似文献   

19.
M.Lal 《大气科学进展》1994,11(2):239-246
The global mean surface temperature may rise by about 0.3oC per decade during the next Few decades as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in the earth’s atmosphere. The data generated in the greenhouse warming simulations (Business-as-Usual scenario of IPCC) with the climate models developed at Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg have been used to assess future plausible hydrological scenario for the South Asian region. The model results indicate enhanced surface warming (2.7oC for summer and 3.6oC for winter) over the land regions of South Asia during the next hundred years. While there is no significant change in the precipitation over most of the land regions during winter, substantial increase in precipitation is likely to occur during summer. As a result, an increase in soil moisture is likely over central India, Bangladesh and South China during summer but a statistically sig-nificant decline in soil moisture is expected over central China in winter. A moderate decrease in surface runoff may occur over large areas of central China during winter while the flood prone areas of NE-India. Bangladesh and South China are likely to have an increase in surface runoff during summer by the end of next century.  相似文献   

20.
The 2015 Paris Agreement commits countries to pursue efforts to limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We assess the consequences of achieving this target in 2100 for the impacts that are avoided, using several indicators of impact (exposure to drought, river flooding, heat waves and demands for heating and cooling energy). The proportion of impacts that are avoided is not simply equal to the proportional reduction in temperature. At the global scale, the median proportion of projected impacts avoided by the 1.5 °C target relative to a rise of 4 °C ranges between 62 and 95% across sectors: the greatest reduction is for heat wave impacts. The 1.5 °C target results in impacts that would be between 27 and 62% lower than with the 2 °C target. For each indicator, there are differences in the proportions of impacts avoided between regions depending on exposure and the regional changes in climate (particularly precipitation). Uncertainty in the proportion of impacts that are avoided for a specific sector depends on the range in the shape of the relationship between global temperature change and impact, and this varies between sectors.  相似文献   

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