共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 218 毫秒
1.
Effect of the Interaction of Different Scale Vortices on the Structure and Motion of Typhoons 总被引：13，自引：1，他引：13
ＥｆｆｅｃｔｏｆｔｈｅＩｎｔｅｒａｃｔｉｏｎｏｆＤｉｆｆｅｒｅｎｔＳｃａｌｅＶｏｒｔｉｃｅｓｏｎｔｈｅＳｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅａｎｄＭｏｔｉｏｎｏｆＴｙｐｈｏｏｎｓＣｈｅｎＬｉａｎｓｈｏｕ（陈联寿）（ＣｈｉｎｅｓｅＡｃａｄｅｍｙｏｆＭｅｔ６ｏｒｏｌｏｇｉｃ... 相似文献
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Wen Jingsong 《大气科学进展》1995,12(2):187-194
ＴｈｅＥｆｆｅｃｔｏｆＷｅａｋＳｈｅａｒ－ｉｎｄｕｃｅｄＭｏｔｉｏｎｏｎＢｒｏｗｎｉａｎＣｏａｇｕｌａｔｉｏｎｏｆＡｅｒｏｓｏｌＰａｒｔｉｃｌｅｓＷｉｎｊｉｎｇｓｏｎｓ（Ｃ．Ｓ．Ｗｉｎ）（温景嵩）（Ｄｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆｐｈｙｓｉｃｓ，Ｎａｎｋａｉ... 相似文献
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A Diagnostic Study of Explosive Development of Extratropical Cyclone over East Asia and West Pacific Ocean 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
ＡＤｉａｇｎｏｓｔｉｃＳｔｕｄｙｏｆＥｘｐｌｏｓｉｖｅＤｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｏｆＥｘｔｒａｔｒｏｐｉｃａｌＣｙｃｌｏｎｅｏｖｅｒＥａｓｔＡｓｉａａｎｄＷｅｓｔＰａｃｉｆｉｃＯｃｅａｎ￥ＪｉａＹｉｑｉｎ（贾逸勤）ａｎｄＺｈａｏＳｉｘｉｏｎｇ（赵思雄）（... 相似文献
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ＮｕｍｅｒｉｃａｌＭｏｄｅｌｌｉｎｇｏｆｔｈｅＥｆｆｅｃｔｓｏｆＯｚｏｎｅｏｎｔｈｅＳｕｍｍｅｒＡｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｉｃＣｉｒｃｕｌａｔｉｏｎＷａｎｇＱｉａｎｑｉａｎ（王谦谦）；ＷａｎｇＹｉｎｈｕｉ（汪迎辉）；ＳｏｎｇＹｕ（宋煜）（Ｎａｍｉｎｇｉｎｓｔ... 相似文献
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ＡＧＣＭＳｔｕｄｙｏｎｔｈｅＭｅｃｈａｎｉｓｍｏｆＳｅａｓｏｎａｌＡｂｒｕｐｔＣｈａｎｇｅｓＷａｎｇＨｕｉｊｕｎ（王会军）ａｎｄＺｅｎｇＱｉｎｇｃｕｎ（曾庆存）（ＬＡＳＧ，ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＡｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｉｃＰｈｙｓｉｃｓ，ＣｈｉｎｅｓｅＡｃ... 相似文献
6.
Preliminary Study of Reconstruction of a Dynamic System Using an One－Dimensional Time Series 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Ｐｒｅｌｉｍｉｎａｒｙ Ｓｔｕｄｙ ｏｆ Ｒｅｃｏｎｓｔｒｕｃｔｉｏｎ ｏｆ ａ Ｄｙｎａｍｉｃ Ｓｙｓｔｅｍ Ｕｓｉｎｇ ａｎ Ｏｎｅ－Ｄｉｍｅｎｓｉｏｎａｌ Ｔｉｍｅ ＳｅｒｉｅｓＰｅｎｇＹｏｕｎｇｉｎｇ（彭永清）；ＺｈｕＹｕｆｅｎｇ（朱育峰）ａ... 相似文献
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Mozheng Wei 《大气科学进展》1996,13(1):67-90
ＡＬｏｗ－ｏｒｄｅｒＭｏｄｅｌｏｆＴｗｏ－ｄｉｍｅｎｓｉｏｎａｌＦｌｕｉｄＤｙｎａｍｉｃｓｏｎｔｈｅＳｕｒｆａｃｅｏｆａＳｐｈｅｒｅＭｏｚｈｅｎｇＷｅｉ（ＣＲＣｆｏｒＳｏｕｔｈｅｒｎＨｅｍｉｓｐｈｅｒｅＭｅｔｅｏｒｏｌｏｇｙ，ＣＳＩＲＯＤｉｖｉｓｉｏ... 相似文献
10.
Ｓｅｎｓｉｔｉｖｉｔｙ Ｓｔｕｄｙ ｏｆ Ｎｏｎｌｏｃａｌ Ｔｕｒｂｕｌｅｎｃｅ ＣｌｏｓｕｒｅＳｃｈｅｍｅ ｉｎ Ｌｏｃａｌ ＣｉｒｃｕｌａｔｉｏｎＣｈｅｎＭｉｎｇａｎｄＨｏｎｅＺｈｏｎｇｘｉａｎｇ（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＡｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｉｃＰｈ... 相似文献
11.
It has been shown by the observed data that during the early 1990’s, the severe disastrous climate occurred in East Asia. In the summer of 1991, severe flood occurred in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River basin of China and in South Korea, and it also appeared in South Korea in the summer of 1993. However, in the summer of 1994, a dry and hot summer was caused in the Huaihe River basin of China and in R. O. K.. In order to investigate the seasonal predictability of the summer droughts and floods during the early l990’s in East Asia, the seasonal prediction experiments of the summer droughts and floods in the summers of 1991-1994 in East Asia have been made by using the Institute of Atmospheric Physics-Two-Level General Circulation Model (IAP-L2 AGCM), the IAP-Atmosphere/Ocean Coupled Model (IAP-CGCM) and the IAP-L2 AGCM in?cluding a filtering scheme, respectively. Compared with the observational facts, it is shown that the IAP-L2 AGCM or IAP-CGCM has some predictability for the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990’s in East Asia, es?pecially for the severe droughts and floods in China and R. O, K.. In this study, a filtering scheme is used to improve the seasonal prediction experiments of the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990’s in East Asia. The predicted results show that the filtering scheme to remain the planetary-scale disturbances is an effective method for the improvement of the seasonal prediction of the summer droughts and floods in East Asia. 相似文献
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本文总结了作者近４０年在季度天气趋势预报研究与实践的历程和主要进展。六十年代提出并利用中高纬和低纬前期大气环流特征与夏季江淮流域旱涝趋势的隔季遥联制作预报,８０年代补进一步考虑外在因子影响改进为“前期物理成因综合相似法”：１９６８～８７这２０年长江中下游夏季旱涝趋势预报取得较好成绩。随后的预报实践表明,因全球气候异常增长,预报难度有所增大。１９９５年开始建立一种短期气候系统多变因子的物理一统计预报 相似文献
14.
1999年中国夏季气候的预测和检验 总被引：35，自引：6，他引：29
利用改进的中国科学院大气物理研究所短期气候预测系统（IAPPSSCA）,结合IAPENSO预测系统所预测的1999年热带太平洋地区的海温异常,对1999年中国夏季气候进行了适时集合预测。预测结果表明：IAPPSSCA较好地预测出了1999年夏季北半球大尺度环流场的异常情况,并较好地预测出1999年中国南涝北旱的大范围降水形势。IAPPSSCA对长江下游的强降水中心、中国南方大部夏季多雨的特征以及中国北方大部的干旱少雨形势的预测,与实测较相符。但IAPPSSCA预测的南方大范围雨带的北界比实测的略为偏北,北方的小范围的降水正距平区域也没有能预报出来。另外,对于月平均降水距平的预测亦存在较大的不确定性。这说明我们的预测系统还有待于进一步的改进和完善。 相似文献
15.
中国业务动力季节预报的进展 总被引：26，自引：9，他引：26
利用动力模式开展季节到年际的短期气候预测 ,是目前国际上气候预测的发展方向。自 1996年以来 ,经过 8a多的研制和发展 ,国家气候中心已建立起第 1代动力气候模式预测业务系统 ,其中包括 1个全球大气 海洋耦合模式 (CGCM )、1个高分辨率东亚区域气候模式 (RegCM_NCC)和 5个简化的ENSO预测模式 (SAOMS) ,可用于季节—年际时间尺度的全球气候预测 ;全球海气耦合模式与区域气候模式嵌套 ,可以提供高分辨率的东亚区域气候模式制做季节预测。CGCM对 1982～ 2 0 0 0年夏季的历史回报试验表明 ,该模式对热带太平洋海表面温度和东亚区域的季节预测具有较好的预测能力。RegCM NCC的 5a模拟基本上能再现东亚地区主要雨带的季节进展。利用嵌套的区域气候模式RegCM NCC对 1991～ 2 0 0 0年的夏季回报表明 ,在预报主要季节雨带方面有一定技巧。 2 0 0 1～ 2 0 0 3年 ,CGCM和RegCM NCC的实时季节预报与观测相比基本合理。特别是 ,模式成功地预报了 2 0 0 3年梅雨季节长江和黄河之间比常年偏多的降水。SAOMS模式系统的回报试验表明 ,该系统对热带太平洋海表面温度距平有一定的预报能力 ,模式超前 6～ 12个月的回报与观测的相关系数明显高于持续预报。 1997～ 2 0 0 3年 ,SAOMS多模式集合实时预报与观测的相关系数达到 相似文献
16.
The South China Sea warm pool interacts vigorously with the summer monsoon which is active
in the region. However, there has not been a definition concerning the former warm pool which is as specific as
that for the latter. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of the South China Sea warm pool and its relations
to the South China Sea monsoon onset were analyzed using Levitus and NCEP/NCAR OISST data. The results
show that, the seasonal variability of the South China Sea warm pool is obvious, which is weak in winter, develops
rapidly in spring, becomes strong and extensive in summer and early autumn, and quickly decays from
mid-autumn. The South China Sea warm pool is 55 m in thickness in the strongest period and its axis is oriented
from southwest to northeast with the main section locating along the western offshore steep slope of
northern Kalimantan-Palawan Island. For the warm pools in the South China Sea, west Pacific and Indian
Ocean, the oscillation, which is within the same large scale air-sea coupling system, is periodic around 5 years.
There are additional oscillations of about 2.5 years and simultaneous inter-annual variations for the latter two
warm pools. The intensity of the South China Sea warm pool varies by a lag of about 5 months as compared to
the west Pacific one. The result also indicates that the inter-annual variation of the intensity index is closely
related with the onset time of the South China Sea monsoon. When the former is persistently warmer (colder) in
preceding winter and spring, the monsoon in the South China Sea usually sets in on a later (earlier) date in
early summer. The relation is associated with the activity of the high pressure over the sea in early summer. An
oceanic background is given for the prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon, though the mechanism
through which the warm pool and eventually the monsoon are affected remains unclear. 相似文献
17.
我国夏季雨型的前期异常特征及预报方法的初步研究 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
用１９５１～１９９５年资料研究了我国东部夏季降水各雨型的前期大气环流及我国地面气象要素场的异常特征．结果表明,在冬季１月份北太平洋地区、秋季中国南海地区的海平面气压场有预报我国夏季雨型的信号．夏季不同雨型的前期冬季特征不同,我国的降水、气温场也有差异,４月份我国大范围的温度异常也是值得注意的预测信号．这些特征可以作为我国夏季雨型的预报信号及预报工具． 相似文献
18.
This study constructed a multiple linear regression model (MLRM) for the seasonal prediction of summer tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in the mid-latitudes of East Asia and then analyzed its validity using large-scale environments. The 850-hPa geopotential heights of the preceding April in the open ocean east of the Philippines and in the Bering Sea were used as independent variables. In the low-frequency years predicted by the MLRM, there was a larger amount of sea ice around the Sea of Okhotsk during the preceding spring and its cooling effect continued into the summer. In addition, topographic and geographic effects around the Sea of Okhotsk that results in the easy formation of cold air created an anomalous cold high over this region in the summer. As a result, the northerlies from an anomalous cold high around the Sea of Okhotsk caused cold surface air temperature anomalies in the mid-latitudes of East Asia, which played an important role in preventing a western Pacific subtropical high from advancing toward the mid-latitudes of East Asia. Eventually, these environments led to a reduced summer TC frequency in the mid-latitudes of East Asia. 相似文献
19.
现阶段的动力气候模式尚不能满足东亚区域气候预测的实际需求,这就需要动力和统计相结合的方法,将动力模式中具有较高预测技巧的大尺度环流信息应用到降水等气象要素的统计预测模型当中,以改善后者预测效果。本文中所介绍的组合统计降尺度模型,可将动力气候模式预测的大尺度环流变量和前期观测的外强迫信号作为预测因子来预测中国夏季降水异常。交叉检验结果显示,组合统计降尺度预测模型的距平相关系数较原始模式结果有较大提高。在实时夏季降水预测中,2013～2018年平均的预测技巧相对较高,趋势异常综合检验（PS）评分平均为71.5分,特别是2015～2018年平均的PS评分预测技巧达到72.7分,总体上高于业务模式原始预测和业务发布预测的技巧。该组合统计降尺度模型预测性能稳定,为我国季节预测业务提供了一种有效参考。 相似文献
20.
利用高原积雪信号改进我国南方夏季降水预测的新方法及其在2014年降水预测中的应用试验 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
2014年夏季我国南方出现严重洪涝、北方大部干旱,国内绝大多数预测模型在三月起报的汛期预测中均未能抓住位于南方地区的异常雨带,导致预测准确率明显偏低。基于模式对东亚地区夏季海平面气压场的高预报技巧和青藏高原冬季积雪与南方地区夏季降水的高相关性,本文提出一个针对我国夏季降水异常的组合统计降尺度预测新方法（Hybrid Statistical Downscaling Prediction,简称HSDP）,该方法综合利用了气候模式输出的高可预报性环流信息和前期观测的高原积雪异常信号,从而实现对我国南方夏季降水进行动力-统计相结合的改进预报。据此方法建立了一个基于国家气候中心气候预测模式的统计降尺度模型。对我国南方夏季降水进行跨季节预测的交叉检验结果显示,HSDP方法对于南方地区多年平均空间距平相关系数从模式原始预报的-0.006提高到0.24,且在大多数年份均有改进。基于HSDP方法于三月份制作的2014年夏季降水预测,能够很好地抓住南涝北旱的基本形势和我国南方的降水大值区,空间距平相关系数达到0.43。这表明,该方法对于我国夏季降水预测具有较好业务应用前景。 相似文献