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1.
Assimilation of the Advanced Geostationary Radiance Imager(AGRI) clear-sky radiance in a regional model is performed. The forecasting effectiveness of the assimilation of two water vapor(WV) channels with conventional observations for the “21·7” Henan extremely heavy rainfall is analyzed and compared with a baseline test that assimilates only conventional observations in this study. The results show that the 24-h cumulative precipitation forecast by the assimilation experiment with the addition ...  相似文献   

2.
Clouds have important effects on the infrared radiances transmission in that the inclusion of cloud effects in data assimilation can not only improve the quality of the assimilated atmospheric parameters greatly, but also minimize the initial error of cloud parameters by adjusting part of the infrared radiances data. On the basis of the Grapes-3D-var (Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System), cloud liquid water, cloud ice water and cloud cover are added as the governing variables in the assimilation. Under the conditions of clear sky, partly cloudy cover and totally cloudy cover, the brightness temperature of 16 MODIS channels are assimilated respectively in ideal tests. Results show that when the simulated background brightness temperatures are lower than the observation, the analyzed field will increase the simulated brightness temperature by increasing its temperature and reducing its moisture, cloud liquid water, cloud ice water, and cloud cover. The simulated brightness temperature can be reduced if adjustment is made in the contrary direction. The adjustment of the temperature and specific humidity under the clear sky conditions conforms well to the design of MODIS channels, but it is weakened for levels under cloud layers. The ideal tests demonstrate that by simultaneously adding both cloud parameters and atmospheric parameters as governing variables during the assimilation of infrared radiances, both the cloud parameters and atmospheric parameters can be adjusted using the observed infrared radiances and conventional meteorological elements to make full use of the infrared observations.  相似文献   

3.
The water vapor budget and the cloud microphysical processes associated with a heavy rainfall system in the Dabie Mountain area in June 2008 were analyzed using mesoscale reanalysis data(grid resolution 0.03 × 0.03,22 vertical layers,1-h intervals),generated by amalgamating the local analysis and prediction system(LAPS).The contribution of each term in the water vapor budget formula to precipitation was evaluated.The characteristics of water vapor budget and water substances in various phase states were evaluated and their differences in heavy and weak rainfall areas were compared.The precipitation calculated from the total water vapor budget accounted for 77% of actual precipitation;surface evaporation is another important source of water vapor.Water vapor within the domain of interest mainly came from the lower level along the southern boundary and the lower-middle level along the western boundary.This altitude difference for water vapor flux was caused by different weather systems.The decrease of local water vapor in the middle-lower layer in the troposphere during the system development stage also contributed to precipitation.The strength and the layer thickness of water vapor convergence and the content of various water substances in the heavy rainfall areas were obviously larger than in the weak rainfall areas.The peak values of lower-level water vapor convergence,local water vapor income,and the concentration of cloud ice all preceded the heaviest surface rainfall by a few hours.  相似文献   

4.
This study explores the structures of the correlations between infrared(IR)brightness temperatures(BTs)from the three water vapor channels of the Advanced Baseline Imager(ABI)onboard the GOES-16 satellite and the atmospheric state.Ensemble-based data assimilation techniques such as the ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)rely on correlations to propagate innovations of BTs to increments of model state variables.Because the three water vapor channels are sensitive to moisture in different layers of the troposphere,the heights of the strongest correlations between these channels and moisture in clear-sky regions are closely related to the peaks of their respective weighting functions.In cloudy regions,the strongest correlations appear at the cloud tops of deep clouds,and ice hydrometeors generally have stronger correlations with BT than liquid hydrometeors.The magnitudes of the correlations decrease from the peak value in a column with both vertical and horizontal distance.Just how the correlations decrease depend on both the cloud scenes and the cloud structures,as well as the model variables.Horizontal correlations between BTs and moisture,as well as hydrometeors,in fully cloudy regions decrease to almost 0 at about 30 km.The horizontal correlations with atmospheric state variables in clear-sky regions are broader,maintaining non-zero values out to~100 km.The results in this study provide information on the proper choice of cut-off radii in horizontal and vertical localization schemes for the assimilation of BTs.They also provide insights on the most efficient and effective use of the different water vapor channels.  相似文献   

5.
Although radar observations capture storm structures with high spatiotemporal resolutions, they are limited within the storm region after the precipitation formed. Geostationary satellites data cover the gaps in the radar network prior to the formation of the precipitation for the storms and their environment. The study explores the effects of assimilating the water vapor channel radiances from Himawari-8 data with Weather Research and Forecasting model data assimilation system(WRFDA) for a severe storm case over north China. A fast cloud detection scheme for Advanced Himawari imager(AHI)radiance is enhanced in the framework of the WRFDA system initially in this study. The bias corrections, the cloud detection for the clear-sky AHI radiance, and the observation error modeling for cloudy radiance are conducted before the data assimilation. All AHI radiance observations are fully applied without any quality control for all-sky AHI radiance data assimilation. Results show that the simulated all-sky AHI radiance fits the observations better by using the cloud dependent observation error model, further improving the cloud heights. The all-sky AHI radiance assimilation adjusts all types of hydrometeor variables, especially cloud water and precipitation snow. It is proven that assimilating all-sky AHI data improves hydrometeor specifications when verified against the radar reflectivity. Consequently, the assimilation of AHI observations under the all-sky condition has an overall improved impact on both the precipitation locations and intensity compared to the experiment with only conventional and AHI clear-sky radiance data.  相似文献   

6.
Recent advances in Global Positioning System （GPS） remote sensing technology allow for a direct estimation of the precipitable water vapor （PWV） from delayed signals transmitted by GPS satellites, which can be assimilated into numerical models with four-dimensional variational （4DVAR） data assimilation. A mesoscale model and its 4DVAR system are used to access the impacts of assimilating GPS-PWV and hourly rainfall observations on the short-range prediction of a heavy rainfall event on 20 June 2002. The heavy precipitation was induced by a sequence of meso-β-scale convective systems （MCS） along the mei-yu front in China. The experiments with GPS-PWV assimilation cluster and also eliminated the erroneous rainfall successfully simulated the evolution of the observed MCS systems found in the experiment without 4DVAR assimilation. Experiments with hourly rainfall assimilation performed similarly both on the prediction of MCS initiation and the elimination of erroneous systems, however the MCS dissipated much sooner than it did in observations. It is found that the assimilation-induced moisture perturbation and mesoscale low-level jet are helpful for the MCS generation and development. It is also discovered that spurious gravity waves may post serious limitations for the current 4DVAR algorithm, which would degrade the assimilation efficiency, especially for rainfall data. Sensitivity experiments with different observations, assimilation windows and observation weightings suggest that assimilating GPS-PWV can be quite effective, even with the assimilation window as short as 1 h. On the other hand, assimilating rainfall observations requires extreme cautions on the selection of observation weightings and the control of spurious gravity waves.  相似文献   

7.
The water and energy cycle in the Tibetan Plateau is an important component of Monsoon Asia and the global energy and water cycle. Using data at a CEOP （Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period）-Tibet site, this study presents a first-order evaluation on the skill of weather forecasting from GCMs and satellites in producing precipitation and radiation estimates. The satellite data, together with the satellite leaf area index, are then integrated into a land data assimilation system （LDAS-UT） to estimate the soil moisture and surface energy budget on the Plateau. The system directly assimilates the satellite microwave brightness temperature, which is strongly affected by soil moisture but not by cloud layers, into a simple biosphere model. A major feature of this system is a dual-pass assimilation technique, which can auto-calibrate model parameters in one pass and estimate the soil moisture and energy budget in the other pass. The system outputs, including soil moisture, surface temperature, surface energy partition, and the Bowen ratio, are compared with observations, land surface models, the Global Land Data Assimilation System, and four general circulation models. The results show that this satellite data-based system has a high potential for a reliable estimation of the regional surface energy budget on the Plateau.  相似文献   

8.
In this paper, a hailstorm occurring on 9 May 1999 in Huanghuai region was studied by using the combined data from the precipitation radar (PR), microwave image (TMI), and visible infrared scanner (VIRS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. According to the 3-orbit observations of 5-h duration from the TRMM satellite, the variation characteristics of the precipitation structures as well as cloud top temperature and microwave signals of the precipitating cloud were comprehensively analyzed during the evolution of hailstorm. The results show that the precipitation is obviously converted from early hail cloud with strong convection into the later storm cloud with weak convection. For hail cloud, there exists some strong convective cells, and the heavy solid precipitation is shown at the middle-top levels so that the contribution of rainfall amount above the freezing-layer to the column precipitation amount is rather larger than that within the melting-layer. However, for storm cloud, the convective cells are surrounded by the large area of stratiform precipitation, and the precipitation thickness gradually decreases, and the rainfall above the freezing-layer obviously reduces and the contribution of rainfall amount within the melting-layer rapidly increases. Therefore, the larger ratio of rainfall amount above the freezing layer to column precipitation amount is, the more convective the cloud is; reversely, the larger proportion of rainfall below the melting layer is, the more stable the stratiform cloud is. The different changing trends of microwave signals at different precipitation stages show that it is better to consider the structures and stages of precipitating cloud to choose the optimal microwave channels to retrieve surface rainfall.  相似文献   

9.
In this study,two convective-stratiform rainfall partitioning schemes are evaluated using precipitation and cloud statistics for different rainfall types categorized by applying surface rainfall equation on grid-scale data from a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation.One scheme is based on surface rainfall intensity whereas the other is based on cloud content information.The model is largely forced by the large-scale vertical velocity derived from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment(TOGA COARE).The results reveal that over 40% of convective rainfall is associated with water vapor divergence,which primarily comes from the rainfall type with local atmospheric drying and water hydrometeor loss/convergence,caused by precipitation and evaporation of rain.More than 40% of stratiform rainfall is related to water vapor convergence,which largely comes from the rainfall type with local atmospheric moistening and hydrometeor loss/convergence attributable to water clouds through precipitation and the evaporation of rain and ice clouds through the conversion from ice hydrometeor to water hydrometeor.This implies that the separation methods based on surface rainfall and cloud content may not clearly separate convective and stratiform rainfall.  相似文献   

10.
The advent of modern geostationary satellite infrared radiance observations has noticeably improved numerical weather forecasts and analyses.However,compared to midlatitude weather systems and tropical cyclones,research into using infrared radiance observations for numerically predicting and analyzing tropical mesoscale convective systems remain mostly fallow.Since tropical mesoscale convective systems play a crucial role in regional and global weather,this deficit should be addressed.This study is the first of its kind to examine the potential impacts of assimilating all-sky upper tropospheric infrared radiance observations on the prediction of a tropical squall line.Even though these all-sky infrared radiance observations are not directly affected by lower-tropospheric winds,the high-frequency assimilation of these all-sky infrared radiance observations improved the analyses of the tropical squall line’s outflow position.Aside from that,the assimilation of all-sky infrared radiance observations improved the analyses and prediction of the squall line’s cloud field.Finally,reducing the frequency of assimilating these all-sky infrared radiance observations weakened these improvements to the analyzed outflow position,as well as the analyses and predictions of cloud fields.  相似文献   

11.
Both water vapor and heat processes play key roles in producing surface rainfall.While the water vapor effects of sea surface temperature and cloud radiative and microphysical processes on surface rainfall have been investigated in previous studies,the thermal effects on rainfall are analyzed in this study using a series of two-dimensional equilibrium cloud-resolving model experiments forced by zonally-uniform,constant,large-scale zonal wind and zero large-scale vertical velocity.The analysis of thermally-related surface rainfall budget reveals that the model domain mean surface rain rate is primarily associated with the mean infrared cooling rate.Convective rainfall and transport of hydrometeor concentration from convective regions to raining stratiform regions corresponds to the heat divergence over convective regions,whereas stratiform rainfall corresponds to the transport of hydrometeor concentration from convective regions and heat divergence over raining stratiform regions.The heat divergence over convective regions is mainly balanced by the heat convergence over rainfall-free regions,which is,in turn,offset by the radiative cooling over rainfall-free regions.The sensitivity experiments of rainfall to the effects of sea surface temperature and cloud radiative and microphysical processes show that the sea surface temperature and cloud processes affect convective rainfall through the changes in infrared cooling rate over rainfall-free regions and transport rate of heat from convective regions to rainfall-free regions.  相似文献   

12.
A heavy rainfall event along the mei-yu front during 22-23 June 2002 was chosen for this study. To assess the impact of the routine and additional IOP (intensive observation period) radiosonde observations on the mesoscale heavy rainfall forecast, a series of four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation and model simulation experiments was conducted using nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5 and the MM5 4DVAR system. The effects of the intensive observations in the different areas on the heavy rainfall forecast were also investigated. The results showed that improvement of the forecast skill for mesoscale heavy rainfall intensity was possible from the assimilation of the IOP radiosonde observations. However,the impact of the IOP observations on the forecast of the rainfall pattern was not significant. Initial conditions obtained through the 4DVAR experiments with a 12-h assimilation window were capable of improving the 24-h forecast. The simulated results after the assimilation showed that it would be best to perform the intensive radiosonde observations in the upstream of the rainfall area and in the moisture passageway area at the same time. Initial conditions created by the 4DVAR led to the low-level moisture convergence over the rainfall area, enhanced frontogenesis and upward motion within the mei-yu front,and intensified middle- and high-level unstable stratification in front of the mei-yu front. Consequently,the heavy rainfall forecast was improved.  相似文献   

13.
Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall forecast has remained a challenge. To create initial conditions with high quality for simulation, the present study implemented a data assimilation scheme based on the EnKF method to ingest the satellite-retrieved cloud water path ( C w ) and tested it in WRF. The scheme uses the vertical integration of forecasted cloud water content to transform control variables to the observation space, and creates the correlations between C w and control variables in the flow-dependent background error covariance based on all the ensemble members, so that the observed cloud information can affect the background temperature and humidity. For two typhoons in 2018 (Yagi and Rumiba), assimilating C w significantly increases the simulated rainfalls and TC intensities. In terms of the average equitable threat score of daily moderate to heavy rainfall (5?120 mm), the improvements are over 130%, and the dry biases are cut by about 30%. Such improvements are traced down to the fact that C w assimilation increases the moisture content, especially that further away from the TC center, which provides more precipitable water for the rainfall,strengthens the TC and broadens the TC size via latent heat release and internal wind field adjustment.  相似文献   

14.
Based on a successful simulation of Typhoon Haikui (2012) using WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting) model with the WSM6 microphysics scheme, a high-resolution model output is presented and analyzed in this study. To understand the cause of the average gridded rainfall stability and increases after Haikui’s landfall, this research examines the fields of the physical terms as well as the vapor and condensate distributions and budgets, including their respective changes during the landing process. The environmental vapor supply following the typhoon landfall has no significant difference from that before the landfall. Although Haikui’s secondary circulation weakens, this circulation is not conducive to typhoon rainfall stability or increases, although the amounts of the six kinds of water substances (vapor, cloud water, cloud ice, snow, rain, and graupel) increase in the outer region of the typhoon. This reallocation of water substances is essential to the maintenance of rainfall. The six kinds of water substances are classified as vapor, clouds (cloud water and ice) and precipitation (snow, rain, and graupel) to diagnose their budgets. This sorting reveals that the changes in the budgets of different kinds of water substances, caused by the reduced mixing ratios of snow and ice, the water consumption of clouds, and the transformation of graupel, induce increased concentrations of precipitation fallout, which occur closer to the ground after typhoon landfall. In addition, this pattern is an efficient way for Haikui’s rainfall to remain stable after its landfall. Thus, the allocation and budget analyses of water substances are meaningful when forecasting the typhoon rainfall stability and increases after landfall.  相似文献   

15.
A cold cloud assimilation scheme was developed that fully considers the water substances, i.e., water vapor, cloud water, rain, ice, snow, and graupel, based on the single-moment WSM6 microphysical scheme and four-dimensional variational(4D-Var) data assimilation in the Weather Research and Forecasting data assimilation(WRFDA) system. The verification of the regularized WSM6 and its tangent linearity model(TLM) and adjoint mode model(ADM) was proven successful. Two groups of single observation a...  相似文献   

16.
Experiments are performed in this paper to understand the influence of satellite radiance data on the initial field of a numerical prediction system and rainfall prediction. First, Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit A （AMSU-A） and Unit B （AMSU-B） radiance data are directly used by three-dimensional variational data assimilation to improve the background field of the numerical model. Then, the detailed effect of the radiance data on the background field is analyzed. Secondly, the background field, which is formed by application of Advanced Television and Infrared Observation Satellite Operational Vertical Sounder （ATOVS） microwave radiance assimilation, is employed to simulate some heavy rainfall cases. The experiment results show that the assimilation of AMSU-A （B） microwave radiance data has a certain impact on the geopotential height, temperature, relative humidity and flow fields. And the impacts on the background field are mostly similar in the different months in summer. The heavy rainfall experiments reveal that the application of AMSU-A （B） microwave radiance data can improve the rainfall prediction significantly. In particular, the AMSU-A radiance data can significantly enhance the prediction of rainfall above 10 mm within 48 h, and the AMSU-B radiance data can improve the prediction of rainfall above 50 mm within 24 h. The present study confirms that the direct assimilation of satellite radiance data is an effective way to improve the prediction of heavy rainfall in the summer in China.  相似文献   

17.
It is thought that satellite infrared (IR) images can aid the recognition of the structure of the cloud and aid the rainfall estimation. In this article, the authors explore the application of a classification method relevant to four texture features, viz. energy, entropy, inertial-quadrature and local calm, to the study of the structure of a cloud cluster displaying a typical meso-scale structure on infrared satellite images. The classification using the IR satellite images taken during 4–5 July 2003, a time when a meso-scale torrential rainstorm was occurring over the Yangtze River basin, illustrates that the detailed structure of the cloud cluster can be obviously seen by means of the neural network classification method relevant to textural features, and the relationship between the textural energy and rainfall indicates that the structural variation of a cloud cluster can be viewed as an exhibition of the convection intensity evolvement. These facts suggest that the scheme of following a classification method relevant to textural features applied to cloud structure studies is helpful for weather analysis and forecasting.  相似文献   

18.
A heavy rainfall event that occurred over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(YRB) during July11–13 2000 is explored in this study. The potential/stream function is used to analyze the upstream "strong signals" of the water vapor transport in the Tibetan Plateau(TP). The studied time period covers from 2000 LST 5 July to 2000 LST 15 July(temporal resolution: 6 hours). By analyzing the three-dimensional structure of the water vapor flux, vorticity and divergence prior to and during the heavy rainfall event, the upstream "strong signals" related to this heavy rainfall event are revealed. A strong correlation exists between the heavy rainfall event in the YRB and the convective clouds over the TP. The "convergence zone" of the water vapor transport is also identified, based on correlation analysis of the water vapor flux two days and one day prior to, and on the day of, the heavy rainfall. And this "convergence zone" coincides with the migration of the maximum rainfall over the YRB. This specific coupled structure actually plays a key role in generating heavy rainfall over the YRB. The eastward movement of the coupled system with a divergence/convergence center of the potential function at the upper/lower level resembles the spatiotemporal evolution of the heavy rainfall event over the YRB. These upstream "strong signals" are clearly traced in this study through analyzing the three-dimensional structure of the potential/stream function of upstream water vapor transport.  相似文献   

19.
Based on a cloud model and the four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation method developed by Sun and Crook (1997), simulated experiments of dynamical and microphysical retrieval from Doppler radar data were performed. The 4DVAR data assimilation technique was applied to a cloud scale model with a warm rain parameterization scheme. The 3D wind, thermodynamical, and microphysical fields were determined by minimizing a cost function, defined by the difference between both radar observed radial velocities and reflectivities and their model predictions. The adjoint of the numerical model was used to provide the gradient of the cost function with respect to the control variables. Experiments have demonstrated that the 4DVAR assimilation method is able to retrieve the detailed structure of wind, thermodynamics, and microphysics by using either dual-Doppler or single-Doppler information. The quality of retrieval depends strongly on the magnitude of constraint with respect to the variables. Retrieving the temperature field, cloud water and water vapor is more difficult than the recovery of the wind field and rainwater. Accurate thermodynamic retrieval requires a longer assimilation period. The inclusion of a background term, even mean fields from a single sounding, helped reduce the retrieval errors. Less accurate velocity fields were obtained when single-Doppler data were used. It was found that the retrieved velocity is sensitive to the location of the retrieval domain relative to the radars while the other fields have very little changes. Two radar volumetric scans are generally adequate for providing the evolution, although the use of additional volumes improves the retrieval. As the amount of the observations decreases, the performance of the retrieval is degraded. However, the missing observations can be compensated by adding a background term to the cost function. The technique is robust to random errors in radial velocity and calibration errors in reflectivity. The boundary conditions from the dual-Doppler synthesized winds are sufficient for the retrieval. When the retrieval is mainly controlled by the observations in the regions away from the boundaries, the simple boundary conditions from velocity azimuth display (VAD) analysis are also available. The microphysical retrieval is sensitive to model errors.  相似文献   

20.
An ensemble Kalman filter based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of the assimilation of surface observation data in an extreme local rainstorm over the Pearl River Delta region on 7 May 2017. Before the occurrence of rainstorm, the signals of weather forecasts in this case are too weak to be predicted by numerical weather model, but the surface temperature over the urban area are high. The results of this study show that the wind field, temperature, and water vapor are obviously adjusted by assimilating surface data of 10-m wind, 2-m temperature, and 2-m water vapor mixing ratio at 2300 BST 6 May, especially below the height of 2 km. The southerly wind over the Pearl River Delta region is enhanced, and the convergence of wind over the northern Guangzhou city is also enhanced. Additionally, temperature, water vapor mixing ratio and pseudoequivalent potential temperature are obviously increased over the urban region, providing favorable conditions for the occurrence of heavy precipitation. After assimilation, the predictions of 12-h rainfall amount, temperature, and relative humidity are significantly improved, and the rainfall intensity and distribution in this case can be successfully reproduced. Moreover, sensitivity tests suggest that the assimilation of 2-m temperature is the key to predict this extreme rainfall and just assimilating data of surface wind or water vapor is not workable, implying that urban heat island effect may be an important factor in this extreme rainstorm.  相似文献   

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