共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
从1987年开始,台湾暴雨研究进入一个新纪元,由早期定性描述分析进入定量计算与模拟,其中包括新观测设施的建设与数值天气预报系统的建立。近年来,随着全球气候变暖,台湾极端降雨事件有所增加,其中不少极端降雨事件是由非台风暴雨所致,往往给当地社会经济和人民生命财产造成严重影响,这就迫切需要不断提高强降雨定量预报业务水平。本文通过对近30 a台湾在非台风暴雨研究发展方面取得的主要进展的回顾,重点介绍了台湾气象部门为了提高强降雨定量预报业务水平所做出的努力,同时对未来台湾非台风暴雨研究规划与方向作了简要介绍。 相似文献
2.
Recent Progress in Studies of Climate Change in China 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
REN Guoyu DING Yihui ZHAO Zongci ZHENG Jingyun WU Tongwen TANG Guoli XU Ying 《大气科学进展》2012,29(5):958-977
An overview of basic research on climate change in recent years in China is presented. In the past 100 years in China, average annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) has increased at a rate ranging from 0.03℃ (10 yr)-1 to 0.12℃ (10 yr)-1 . This warming is more evident in northern China and is more significant in winter and spring. In the past 50 years in China, at least 27% of the average annual warming has been caused by urbanization. Overall, no significant trends have been detected in annual and/or summer precipitation in China on a whole for the past 100 years or 50 years. Both increases and decreases in frequencies of major extreme climate events have been observed for the past 50 years. The frequencies of extreme temperature events have generally displayed a consistent pattern of change across the country, while the frequencies of extreme precipitation events have shown only regionally and seasonally significant trends. The frequency of tropical cyclone landfall decreased slightly, but the frequency of sand/dust storms decreased significantly. Proxy records indicate that the annual mean SAT in the past a few decades is the highest in the past 400-500 years in China, but it may not have exceeded the highest level of the Medieval Warm Period (1000-1300 AD). Proxy records also indicate that droughts and floods in eastern China have been characterized by continuously abnormal rainfall periods, with the frequencies of extreme droughts and floods in the 20th century most likely being near the average levels of the past 2000 years. The attribution studies suggest that increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere are likely to be a main factor for the observed surface warming nationwide. The Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins underwent a cooling trend in summer over the past 50 years, which might have been caused by increased aerosol concentrations and cloud cover. However, natural climate variability might have been a main driver for the mean and extreme precipitation variations observed over the past century. Climate models generally perform well in simulating the variations of annual mean SAT in China. They have also been used to project future changes in SAT under varied GHG emission scenarios. Large uncertainties have remained in these model-based projections, however, especially for the projected trends of regional precipitation and extreme climate events. 相似文献
3.
Statistical time series decomposition into significant components and application to European temperature 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Summary
Time series of observed monthly mean temperatures of European stations and at grid points are decomposed into different kinds
of trends (linear, progressive, degressive), constant or significantly changing annual cycles, episodic and harmonic components,
extreme events and noise. A stepwise regression is used to test whether the components are significant. Special emphasis is
given to extreme events which we distinguish from extreme values. While extreme values may likely occur by chance, it is very
unlikely that extreme events would be in accordance with the features of the time series. On one hand, extreme events alter
the estimates (and test results) of trends and other components. On the other hand, such components have to be known to recognize
extreme events. To deal with this problem, an iterative procedure is introduced that converges fast to robust estimates of
all the components.
Applying this procedure to the last 100 years of European temperatures reveals that the phase of the annual cycle is shifted
backward within the year in western Europe but foreward in eastern Europe. In the latter region, the amplitude of the annual
cycle has also increased significantly. Most of the trend components found in the time series are positive and linear. Nearly
all detected extreme events are cold events which occurred in winter. Their number has significantly grown. Significant harmonic
components with a period of 92.3 months (about 7.7 years) are found mainly in northern and western Europe.
Received August 15, 2000 Revised June 20, 2001 相似文献
4.
Xiujing YU Guoyu REN Panfeng ZHANG Jingbiao HU Ning LIU Jianping LI Chenchen ZHANG 《大气科学进展》2020,37(4):347-358
In China and East Asia,the long-term continuous observational data at daily resolution are insufficient,and thus there is a lack of good understanding of the extreme climate variation over the last 100 years plus.In this study,the extreme temperature indices defined by ETCCDI(Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices)and local meteorological administrations were analyzed for Changchun City,Northeast China,by using the daily maximum temperature(Tmax)and daily minimum temperature(Tmin)over 1909?2018.The results showed that extreme cold events,such as cold days,cold nights,frost days,icing days,and low temperature days,decreased significantly at rates of?0.41 d(10 yr)^?1,?1.45 d(10 yr)^?1,?2.28 d(10 yr)^?1,?1.16 d(10 yr)?1 and?1.90 d(10 yr)^?1,respectively.Warm nights increased significantly at a rate of 1.71 d(10 yr)^?1,but warm days decreased slightly and the number of high temperature days decreased at a rate of?0.20 d(10 yr)?1.The frequency of cold surge events increased significantly at a rate of 0.25 d(10 yr)^?1,occurring mainly from the mid-1950s to late-1980s.The average Tmax,average Tmin and extreme Tmin increased at rates of 0.09℃(10 yr)^?1,0.36℃(10 yr)^?1 and 0.54℃(10 yr)^?1,respectively;and extreme Tmax decreased significantly at a rate of?0.17℃(10 yr)^?1.In 1909?2018,1951?2018 and 1979?2018,the indices related to cold events decreased,while the trends of the indices related to warm events were different for different periods. 相似文献
5.
6.
Characteristics and Preliminary Causes of Tropical Cyclone Extreme Rainfall Events over Hainan Island 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The characteristics of tropical cyclone(TC) extreme rainfall events over Hainan Island from 1969 to 2014 are analyzed from the viewpoint of the TC maximum daily rainfall(TMDR) using daily station precipitation data from the Meteorological Information Center of the China Meteorological Administration, TC best-track data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute,and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The frequencies of the TMDR reaching 50, 100 and 250 mm show a decreasing trend[-0.7(10 yr)~(-1)], a weak decreasing trend [-0.2(10 yr)~(-1)] and a weak increasing trend [0.1(10 yr)~(-1)], respectively. For seasonal variations, the TMDR of all intensity grades mainly occurs from July to October, with the frequencies of TMDR 50 mm and 100 mm peaking in September and the frequency of TMDR 250 mm [TC extreme rainstorm(TCER) events]peaking in August and September. The western region(Changjiang) of the Island is always the rainfall center, independent of the intensity or frequencies of different intensity grades. The causes of TCERs are also explored and the results show that topography plays a key role in the characteristics of the rainfall events. TCERs are easily induced on the windward slopes of Wuzhi Mountain, with the coordination of TC tracks and TC wind structure. A slower speed of movement, a stronger TC intensity and a farther westward track are all conducive to extreme rainfall events. A weaker northwestern Pacific subtropical high is likely to make the 500-h Pa steering flow weaker and results in slower TC movement, whereas a stronger South China Sea summer monsoon can carry a higher moisture flux. These two environmental factors are both favorable for TCERs. 相似文献
7.
1960—2010年中国西南地区区域性气象干旱事件的特征分析 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
利用区域性极端事件客观识别法（Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events,OITREE）和1960—2010年中国西南地区（四川、云南、贵州省和重庆市）101个站综合气象干旱指数（CI）进行区域性气象干旱事件识别研究,确定了相应的OITREE方法参数组,并识别得出87次中国西南地区区域性气象干旱事件,其中9次达到极端强度,而2009年9月—2010年4月发生的特大干旱是中国西南地区近50年最严重的区域性气象干旱事件。进一步分析表明,中国西南地区区域性气象干旱事件的持续时间一般为10—80 d,最长可达231 d;11—4月是西南地区的旱季。云南和四川南部是西南干旱的频发和强度中心地区;强的（极端及重度）干旱事件可分为5种分布类型,其中南部型出现机会最多。过去50年西南地区区域性气象干旱事件频次显著增多,强度有所增强,其主要原因可能是该地区降水量显著减少所致,而气温升高也起到了推波助澜的作用。 相似文献
8.
中国近54年来夏季极端降水事件特征研究 总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6
利用1960~2013年中国6~8月无缺测的571站逐日降水资料,定义7个极端降水指数,研究中国夏季极端降水事件特征。结果表明:(1)极端降水事件空间分布存在明显的区域性差异,长江中下游地区、华南地区、西北地区表现为增加趋势,东北地区、华北地区、西南部分地区表现为减少趋势;时间分布表现出具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征,极端降水事件有增加趋势,在20世纪90年代初期有明显转折。(2)M-K检验表现出极端降水事件在20世纪90年代初发生突变,突变前(后)偏弱(强)。(3)极端降水指数周期振荡不完全一致,准15年周期振荡为主,其次是准7年周期,最强振动出现在1998年。(4)除持续干期指数外,其他极端降水指数间存在较好的相关性。 相似文献
9.
In a globally warming world,subtropical regions are generally expected to become drier while the tropics and mid–high latitudes become wetter.In line with this,Southwest China,close to 25?N,is expected to become increasingly prone to drought if annual mean precipitation decreases.However,despite this trend,changes in the temporal distribution of moisture supply might actually result in increased extreme rainfall in the region,whose climate is characterized by distinct dry and wet seasons.Using hourly and daily gauge observations,rainfall intensity changes since 1971 are examined for a network of 142 locations in the region.From the analysis,dry season changes are negligible but wet season changes exhibit a significantly strong downward trend [-2.4%(10 yr)~(-1)],particularly during the past 15 years [-17.7%(10 yr)~(-1)].However,the intensity of events during the wettest of 5% hours appears to steadily increase during the whole period [1.4%(10 yr)~(-1)],tying in with government statistical reports of recent droughts and flooding.If the opposing trends are a consequence of a warming climate,it is reasonable to expect the contradictory trend to continue with an enhanced risk of flash flooding in coming decades in the region concerned. 相似文献
10.
Impacts of extreme precipitation on tree plantation carbon cycle 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Mei Huang Jinjun Ji Feng Deng Fengting Yang 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,115(3-4):655-665
Extreme precipitation events are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude in future due to global warming, but relevant impacts on tree plantation ecosystem carbon cycle are unknown. In this study, we use an atmosphere–vegetation interaction model (AVIM2) to estimate the likely impacts of extreme precipitation events on carbon fluxes and carbon stocks of a tree plantation in south China. Our results indicate that shifting from moderate precipitation events to extreme precipitation events whilst keeping monthly precipitation unchanged could decrease the tree plantation carbon accumulation. Tree plantation net primary productivity, net ecosystem productivity, soil carbon stock and vegetation carbon stock could decrease by 4.2, 28, 4.3 and 1.4 % during the studying period of 1962–2004, respectively. Though reductions in net primary productivity and net ecosystem productivity are relatively smaller than their annual variations, our sensitivity test shows that the tree plantation carbon stock could decrease by 3.3 % if the assumed extreme precipitation regime lasts for 500 years. Observed and simulated gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem productivity have significant positive correlation with soil water content (SWC), especially the deep SWC. The mechanism for the extreme precipitation effect is that the increase in extreme precipitation events will cause SWC to decrease, consequently, reducing carbon fluxes and stocks. 相似文献
11.
山东省极端气温事件的时空变化特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据1971—2013年山东省14个气象站点的逐日最高和最低气温资料,计算了6个极端气温指数,采用线性倾向率、M-K突变检验、EEMD、反距离加权插值和相关分析等方法对山东省极端气温事件的时空变化特征及其与西太平洋副高环流变化的关系进行了分析。结果表明:(1)冷暖指数变化趋势的方向和大小均表现出明显的不对称性,暖(冷)指数表现为上升(下降)趋势显著。冷暖指数表现出准2年和准5~7年的年际尺度波动,准10~15年和准20~28年的年代际尺度波动。(2)暖(冷)指数均表现为全区一致的增加(减少)趋势;除高温日数外,倾向率的空间分布总体上表现出东部和中部地区变化趋势较大,西部地区变化趋势较小。(3)极端气温事件的突变与气温突变具有较好的同步性,均在20世纪80年代末90年代初,表明极端气温指数的变化与区域性增暖有密切联系。(4)极端气温事件(除高温日数)的变化深受西太平洋副高变化的影响,西伸脊点、强度和面积指数变化的影响尤其显著。 相似文献
12.
Characteristics of the Regional Meteorological Drought Events in Southwest China During 1960–2010 
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下载免费PDF全文 LI Yunjie REN Fumin LI Yiping WANG Pengling YAN Hongming 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2014,28(3):381-392
An objective identification technique for regional extreme events(OITREE) and the daily compositedrought index(CI) at 101 stations in Southwest China(including Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Chongqing)are used to detect regional meteorological drought events between 1960 and 2010. Values of the parameters of the OITREE method are determined. A total of 87 drought events are identified, including 9 extreme events. The 2009–2010 drought is the most serious in Southwest China during the past 50 years. The regional meteorological drought events during 1960–2010 generally last for 10–80 days, with the longest being 231days. Droughts are more common from November to next April, and less common in the remaining months.Droughts occur more often and with greater intensity in Yunnan and southern Sichuan than in other parts of Southwest China. Strong(extreme and severe) regional meteorological drought events can be divided into five types. The southern type has occurred most frequently, and Yunnan is the area most frequently stricken by extreme and severe drought events. The regional meteorological drought events in Southwest China have increased in both frequency and intensity over the study period, and the main reason appears to be a significant decrease in precipitation over this region, but a simultaneous increase in temperature also contributes. 相似文献
13.
Helmi Saidi Marzia Ciampittiello Claudia Dresti Giorgio Ghiglieri 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,113(1-2):1-15
Alpine and Mediterranean areas are undergoing a profound change in the typology and distribution of rainfall. In particular, there has been an increase in consecutive non-rainy days, and an escalation of extreme rainy events. The climatic characteristic of extreme precipitations over short-term intervals is an object of study in the watershed of Lake Maggiore, the second largest freshwater basin in Italy (located in the north-west of the country) and an important resource for tourism, fishing and commercial flower growing. The historical extreme rainfall series with high-resolution from 5 to 45 min and above: 1, 2, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h collected at different gauges located at representative sites in the watershed of Lake Maggiore, have been computed to perform regional frequency analysis of annual maxima precipitation based on the L-moments approach, and to produce growth curves for different return-period rainfall events. Because of different rainfall-generating mechanisms in the watershed of Lake Maggiore such as elevation, no single parent distribution could be found for the entire study area. This paper concerns an investigation designed to give a first view of the temporal change and evolution of annual maxima precipitation, focusing particularly on both heavy and extreme events recorded at time intervals ranging from few minutes to 24 h and also to create and develop an extreme storm precipitation database, starting from historical sub-daily precipitation series distributed over the territory. There have been two-part changes in extreme rainfall events occurrence in the last 23 years from 1987 to 2009. Little change is observed in 720 min and 24-h precipitations, but the change seen in 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 45, 60, 120, 180 and 360 min events is significant. In fact, during the 2000s, growth curves have flattened and annual maxima have decreased. 相似文献
14.
构造合理的背景场误差协方差是做好资料同化的关键。分析了背景误差协方差中变量相关关系在台风季节和非台风季节隐含的不同动力平衡特征,并讨论其对台风同化和预报的影响。分析发现,与非台风季节相比,在台风季节温度与非平衡速度势具有更强的动力相关性,拟相对湿度与其他控制变量的相关性也更显著。这些动力相关性在背景场误差中协方差的引入,将在同化分析过程中使得观测信息可以合理地对同化分析场产生影响。台风循环同化和预报的结果验证了对变量平衡特征的分析:背景误差协方差中新平衡关系的建立,对同化和预报有较大的正面影响,尤其是相对湿度和其他控制变量相关的建立,明显改善了台风路径、强度和降水的预报效果。 相似文献
15.
A Simulation Study on the Extreme Temperature Events of the 20th Century by Using the BCC_AGCM 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 DONG Min WU Tongwen WANG Zaizhi CHENG Yanjie ZHANG Fang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2012,26(4):489-506
Extreme temperature events are simulated by using the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model (BCC AGCM) in this paper. The model has been run for 136 yr with the observed external forcing data including solar insolation, greenhouse gases, and monthly sea surface temperature (SST). The daily maximum and minimum temperatures are simulated by the model, and 16 indices representing various extreme temperature events are calculated based on these two variables. The results show that the maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXX), maximum of daily minimum (TNX), minimum of daily maximum (TXN), minimum of daily minimum (TNN), warm days (TX90p), warm nights (TN90p), summer days (SU25), tropical nights (TR20), and warm spell duration index (WSDI) have increasing trends during the 20th century in most regions of the world, while the cold days (TX10p), cold nights (TN10p), and cold spell duration index (CSDI) have decreasing trends. The probability density function (PDF) of warm/cold days/nights for three periods of 1881-1950, 1951- 1978, and 1979-2003 is examined. It is found that before 1950, the cold day/night has the largest probability, while for the period of 1979-2003, it has the smallest probability. In contrast to the decreasing trend of cold days/nights, the PDF of warm days/nights exhibits an opposite trend. In addition, the frost days (FD) and ice days (ID) have decreasing trends, the growing season has lengthened, and the diurnal temperature range is getting smaller during the 20th century. A comparison of the above extreme temperature indices between the model output and NCEP data (taken as observation) for 1948-2000 indicates that the mean values and the trends of the simulated indices are close to the observations, and overall there is a high correlation between the simulated indices and the observations. But the simulated trends of FD, ID, growing season length, and diurnal temperature range are not consistent with the observations and their correlations are low or even negative. This indicates that the model is incapable to simulate these four indices although it has captured most indices of the extreme temperature events. 相似文献
16.
Based on composite analysis using categories of solar inactivity and activity, the responses of surface temperature to different categorized solar activity and a plausible mechanism have been discussed. The results show the increasing solar sunspot activity during solar cycles 13 to 24 (1880–2010) and it seemed to make a positive contribution to rising global temperature. However, the sunspots were fewer in number, if we focused on the most recent 60 years (1950–2010), and the decreasing solar activity did not contribute to a cooler Earth. This result indicates that the connection between sunspots and the Earth’s climate is sensitive to the study period. An extreme analysis was performed in an attempt to gain a better understanding of solar impacts. The extreme top 10 composite analysis demonstrated that the surface temperature response to solar activity is spatially different and is highly sensitive to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The most sensitive areas in the Pacific sector revealed a significant difference between including and excluding ENSO years. During the solar inactive years, the tropical eastern Pacific was observed as a weak El Niño-like (strong La Niña-like) pattern in the composite including (excluding) ENSO events. Another interesting feature is the strong similarity in the composites which include or exclude ENSO events during the sunspot active years, but it differs from the La Niña-like pattern observed in previous studies. The bottom-up mechanism associated with the response of the surface dynamical circulation and the heat balance when compared to the total solar irradiance forcing partially explains the connection. 相似文献
17.
热带海表温度及北大西洋涛动与ENSO事件的相关分析 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
采用交叉小波变换方法分析了热带SST、NAO与ENSO事件之间的多时间尺度相关特征。结果表明，热带SST与ENSO事件在2～7年和30年以上尺度的周期振荡上存在着显著的同位相正相关，其中以4年尺度周期的方差贡献最大，时域中热带SST冷暖变化的时间与ENSO冷暖交替的时间一一对应；北大西洋SST与ENSO事件在4年和15年尺度周期振荡上表现为方差贡献较大的正相关；NAO与ENSO事件相关较弱，在2～7年和10～24年尺度上表现为负相关，而25年以上尺度为正相关，时域中NAO强弱变化与ENSO冷暖交替的对应关系并不完全一致。 相似文献
18.
利用秦巴山区88个气象站1975—2016年的逐日气温数据,结合16个极端气温指数分析了秦巴山区极端气温阈值的空间分布及极端气温事件变化趋势的海拔依赖性。结果表明：极端气温阈值存在明显的空间分布差异,表现为极端低温阈值与极端高温阈值由西北向东南均有增温趋势;总体来看,极端气温暖事件（SU25、TR20、TX90P、TN90P、WSDI）增加幅度大于冷事件（FD0、ID0、TX10P、TN10P、CSDI）减少幅度,且变化趋势较冷事件更显著;全区霜冻日数、夏日日数、冷夜日数、暖昼日数及高温极值（TXx、TXn）变化均比较显著;区域作物生长期西部增长趋势较东部显著,多数站点变化幅度在3~6 d/10a之间;海拔越高发生极端低温事件的气温越低,极端低温阈值变化趋势为-0.36℃/100m;海拔越低发生极端高温事件的气温越高,极端高温变化趋势达0.5℃/100m,且均通过99%的信度检验;区域极端气温极值指数的变化趋势与海拔呈显著正相关,具有明显的海拔依赖性,表现为海拔越高,极值指数增加趋势越明显。 相似文献
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20.
长江中下游地区冬季极端降水事件与天气尺度瞬变波活动的可能联系 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4
利用ERA40、NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料和长江中下游地区85站逐日降水资料,从大气内部天气尺度瞬变波的角度对长江中下游地区极端降水事件进行了成因分析。研究发现瞬变波活动与极端降水的发生关系密切;冬季在两支急流并存的欧亚大陆上空存在南北两支瞬变波活跃带。南支瞬变波在冬季极端降水频发、少发年存在较明显的差异。总体而言,极端降水频发年,瞬变波活动活跃,欧亚大陆上空的瞬变波持续时间长、传播连续、强度偏强;极端降水少发年,则反之。从逐日变化来看,南支瞬变波的强度和能量传播过程与极端降水的发生频次均具有一定的对应关系。北支瞬变波的传播及瞬变波对水汽的输送和极端降水的发生也有一定促进作 用。这些结果均表明,冬季极端降水的发生与天气尺度瞬变波的活动联系紧密,天气尺度瞬变波的异常活动及传播可能是极端降水发生的重要条件,研究可为极端降水的成因研究提供新的思路。 相似文献