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1.
Experiments for short range forecasting of typhoon tracks over the South China Sea Region were carried out using limited-area numerical model recently developed by the authors.Due to the shortage of sounding data over the sea, typhoon circulations are usually obtained incompletely from objective analysis, or with significant deviation of the centre from reality.Therefore a set of schemes for typhoon initialization are proposed here to construct a bogus typhoon with the circulation being consistent with the physical processes included in the limited-area model.Based on the schemes bogus data over the model grids are created and analysed together with conventional observational data.Then the normal model initialization scheme is issued to further modulate the model typhoon with the numeriCal modeel.Some experiments of sensitivity in various aspects are conducted for further improvement of typhoon track predictions.The experimental results for a number of typhoon landing in southern China in 1993 and 1994 shows that the limited-area model is capable of predicting typhoon tracks in the southern China region. 相似文献
2.
EFFECTS OF THREE-DIMENSIONAL STRUCTURE OF HEATING FIELD ON THE SUMMER MONSOON CIRCULATION IN ASIA 
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下载免费PDF全文 In this paper,a primitive equation linear wave model is used to examine the effects of three-dimen-sional structure of heating field on the behavior of stationary planetary waves in summer and to comparethe roles of different heating functions for the formation and maintenance of summer monsoon circulationin Asia.It is shown that the aloft heating connected with the latent heating,especially the deep condensationheating associated with the cumulus convection in low latitudes,plays a crucial part in the Asian summer mon-soon and the structures of planetary wave responses are quite sensitive to the vertical distribution of heating. 相似文献
3.
The three-dimensional propagations of the forced stationary planetary waves in a realistic summer current, in which the vertical and horizontal wind shears are included, are discussed by using the refractive index squared of waves in a spherical coordinate system.The results show that there is no polar wave guide in stationary planetary wave propagations in summer. Thus, stationary planetary waves cannot propagate into the stratosphere. However, there are a wave guide pointing from the subtropics toward middle and high latitudes in the troposphere and another wave guide pointing from the lower troposphere at middle latitudes toward the upper troposphere near 30°oN in the forced stationary planetary wave propagations.A linearized, steady-state, quasi-geostrophic 34-level spherical coordinate model with Rayleigh friction and Newtonian cooling, horizontal kinematic thermal diffusivity is used to simulate the wave guides of three-dimensional propagations of stationary planetary waves in summer. 相似文献
4.
By using a linear oceanic mixed layer model, the long period waves in the tropical ocean are investigated numerically. Due to the inhomogeneity of the large-scale average sea temperature field of the ocean in tropical regions, besides the westward propagating equatorial Rossby wave to be modified, there will be a kind of long period thermal wave which propagates eastward under certain oceanic background conditions. Under the influences of these two kinds of waves, the propagating and evolving processes of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are clearly shown by numerical experiments. The results of numerical experiments are consistent with the ones obtained by the theoretical analysis in Part I. The possible relationship between these two kinds of waves and El Nino events is also discussed indirectly. 相似文献
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Based on the aqua-planet experiments, the wavenumber-frequency characteristics of tropical waves and their influencing factors in SST distribution and the convective parameterization scheme are investigated using the spectral atmospheric general circulation model （SAMIL）. Space-time spectral analysis is used to obtain the variance of convectively coupled tropical waves. In the Control experiment with maximum SST located at the equator the simulated tropical-wave behaviors are in agreement with those in observations and theoretical solutions. When the maximum SST is located at 5°N, the symmetric and antisymmetric waves are much weaker than those in the control experiment, suggesting that tropical wave activities are very sensitive to the SST distributions. Importantly, the variance maximum of Madden-Julian oscillation （MJO） is found to occur around 5°N, which suggests that the development of the MJO depends largely on the latitude of maximum SST. Furthermore, the seasonal variations of MJO may be mainly caused by the seasonal variations of the maximum SST. The experiment results with two different cumulus schemes the Manabe moist convective adjustment and Zhang-McFarlane （ZM） convective scheme, were also compared to examine the impacts of convective parameterization. Weakened variances of each individual tropical wave when the ZM scheme is used suggest that the ZM scheme is not favorable for the tropical wave activities. However, the wave characteristics are different when the ZM scheme is used in different models, which may imply that the simulated basic state is important to the meridional distributions of the waves. The MJO signals suggest that the parameterization scheme may have great influence on the strength, but have less direct impact on the MJO distribution. The frequency of the tropical waves may be associated with the moisture control of convection and the large-scale condensation scheme used in the model. 相似文献
6.
Four landfalling typhoon cases in 2005 were selected for a numerical simulation study with the
Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) model. The preliminary assessment
results of the performance of the model, including the predictions of typhoon track, landfall time, location
and intensity, etc., are presented and the sources of errors are analyzed. The 24-hour distance forecast error
of the typhoon center by the model is shown to be about 131 km, while the 48-hour error is 252 km. The
model was relatively more skilful at forecasts of landfall time and locations than those of intensity at
landfall. On average, the 24-hour forecasts were slightly better than the 48-hour ones. An analysis of data
impacts indicates that the assimilation of unconventional observation data is essential for the improvement
of the model simulation. The model could also be improved by increasing model resolution to simulate the
mesoscale and fine scale systems and by improving methods of terrain refinement processing. 相似文献
7.
By using a two-level quasi-geostrophic truncated spectral model taking account of the nonlinear interaction between different wave components (i. e. basic current, ultra-long waves and long waves), the index cycle of general circulation is investigated. The calculated results show that the circulation index has a, quasi-periodic vacillation with a period of 8 to 16 days, which can be created by the nonlinear interaction and that the nonlinear interaction between different wave components may cause the tilted-trough vacillation, amplitude vacillation of wave pattern and quasi-periodic change of wave number of flow pattern. 相似文献
8.
Numerical Study on the Impacts of the Bogus Data Assimilation and Sea Spray Parameterization on Typhoon Ducts 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 FEI Jianfang DING Juli HUANG Xiaogang CHENG Xiaoping HU Xiaohua 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2013,27(3):308-321
The Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3.2 (WRF v3.2) was used with the bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme and sea spray parameterization (SSP), and experiments were conducted to assess the impacts of the BDA and SSP on prediction of the typhoon ducting process induced by Typhoon Mindule (2004). The global positioning system (GPS) dropsonde observations were used for comparison. The results show that typhoon ducts are likely to form in every direction around the typhoon center, with the main type of ducts being elevated duct. With the BDA scheme included in the model initialization, the model has a better performance in predicting the existence, distribution, and strength of typhoon ducts. This improvement is attributed to the positive effect of the BDA scheme on the typhoon’s ambient boundary layer structure. Sea spray affects typhoon ducts mainly by changing the latent heat (LH) flux at the air-sea interface beyond 270 km from the typhoon center. The strength of the typhoon duct is enhanced when the boundary layer under this duct is cooled and moistened by the sea spray; otherwise, the typhoon duct is weakened. The sea spray induced changes in the air-sea sensible heat (SH) flux and LH flux are concentrated in the maximum wind speed area near the typhoon center, and the changes are significantly weakened with the increase of the radial range. 相似文献
9.
In this paper,a tropical atmospheric model of relevance to shorts-term climate variations(Wang and Li 1993)is util-ized for study of the development of Madden-Julian oscillation.The model contains an interactive process ofboundary-layer Ekman convergence and precipitation heating.The model is solved by expanding dependent variables interms of parabolic cylindrical functions in the meridional direction and truncating three meridional modes n=0,2,4 forequatorial symmetric solutions.The free wave solutions obtained under long-wave approximation are induced as aKelvin wave and two Rossby waves.After considering the effect of boundary-layer dynamic process,the modifiedKelvin wave becomes unstable in long-wave bands with a typical growth rate on an order of 10~(-6) s~(-1)and an eastwardphase speed of 10 m s~(-1);the most unstable mode is wavenumber one.These theoretical results are consistent with the ob-served Madden-Julian oscillation in equatorial area.For the two modified Rossby waves,one with a smaller meridionalscale(n=4)decays except for extra long-waves;the other with a larger meridional scale(n=2)grows in short-wavebands.This may be relevant to explaining the westward propagation of super cloud clusters in the Madden-Julianoscillation.The theory suggests that the boundary-layer dynamic process is an important mechanism in the develop-ment of the Madden-Julian oscillation. 相似文献
10.
Interaction Between Typhoon and Western Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone:Data Analyses and Numerical Experiments 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Three kinds of typhoons with distinct tracks are sorted based on a set of typhoon data from 1958 to 1998. The results of composite analyses confirm that different typhoon tracks correspond to different patterns of the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific （SAWP）. When the tracks are westward, the SAWP is strong, with a zonal form, and stretches westward; when the tracks are recurving, the main body of the SAWP shifts eastward and breaks near 160~E; and when the tracks are northward, the SAWP is located far east of its normal position. Based on the above result, two different initial fields are configured, one has a zonal and strong SAWP, and the other has a meridional and weak SAWP. By using the GOALS R42L9 climate model, a temperature disturbance is added into these two different initial fields to force the formation of a typhoon. Westward and northward tracked typhoons are well simulated, thus verifying that different patterns of the SAWP have different effects on typhoon tracks. Results also show that typhoons can induce barotropic Rossby waves propagating to the mid and high latitudes. Under different background zonal flows, the wave trains triggered by the typhoons of westward and northward tracks are also different, and their effects on the mid and high latitude circulations and the SAWP are different. Compared to a n.orthward tracked typhoon, a westward tracked typhoon is able to induce positive geopotential height anomaly to its north and northwest, resulting in the SAWP strengthening and developing westward. 相似文献
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湛江港邻近海域台风浪的模拟研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
对第三代近岸海浪数值模式SWAN及包含的物理过程进行了简要介绍，利用该模式对影响南海湛江港海域的二次台风浪过程进行了模拟研究：由藤田台风风场模型同化相应时刻的台风要素、NCAR/NCEP网格点资料、单站观测资料后，提供模式所需风场；利用自嵌套的方式，提供模式波谱边界条件；两次模拟结果与实际海浪观测资料相符较好，可以为该海域台风浪的模拟预报提供较为重要的参考。 相似文献
14.
S. A. Myslenkov A. A. Shestakova P. A. Toropov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2016,41(10):706-713
The results ofnumerical simulation of storm waves near the northeastern coast ofthe Black Sea using different wind forcing (CFSR reanalysis, GFS forecast, and WRF reanalysis and forecast) are presented. The wave modeling is based on the SWAN spectral wave model and the high-resolution unstructured grid for the Tsemes Bay. The quality estimates of wave simulation results for various wind forcing are provided by comparing the model results with the instrumental data on wind waves in the Tsemes Bay. It is shown that the forecast of the maximum wave height for some storms using the WRF wind forcing is more accurate than that based on the GFS forcing. 相似文献
15.
V. V. Fomin D. V. Alekseev E. M. Lemeshko D. I. Lazorenko 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2018,43(2):95-102
Storm surges and wind waves in the Taganrog Bay (the Sea of Azov) are simulated with the ADCIRC+SWAN numerical model, and the mechanisms of the Don River delta flooding are analyzed. It is demonstrated that the most intensive flooding of the Don River delta occurs in case of southwestern wind with the speed of not less than 15 m/s. A storm surge leads to the intensification of wind waves in the whole Taganrog Bay due to the general sea level rise. As a result, the significant wave height near the Don River delta increases by 0.5–0.6 m. 相似文献
16.
热带平流层多尺度波动分离方案的研究：多站点高分辨率无线电探空联合分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用太平洋地区台风过境期间6个热带气象站的高分辨率无线电探空资料,结合扩展经验正交函数（EEOF）展开,对热带下平流层行星波和重力波扰动进行了分离,给出了一种热带地区提取重力波扰动的新方案。对观测数据做EEOF展开后,选择表征行星尺度波动模态的特征向量和相应权重进行气象要素场的重建。结果显示,在不同的台风过程期间,温度、纬向风和经向风的重建扰动量显示出不同的动力学偏振关系:在准两年振荡（QBO）东风位相时与赤道开尔文波的偏振关系一致,而在准两年振荡西风位相时与混合罗斯贝-重力波（MRG）的偏振关系一致。把行星尺度波动模态从原始观测中剔除,得到新的扰动廓线,对其进行重力波垂直波数谱的谱型拟合。结果发现,与以往方法提取的重力波扰动相比,新方法所得谱型参数中特征垂直波长λ*在不同时期不同站点变化很小,稳定在1.7 km左右,且低频波数段谱斜率s的数值与理论假设1十分接近。综合其研究结果可以推测,用新方法提取的热带重力波扰动更加符合当前的理论垂直波数谱模型。 相似文献
17.
模拟台风Ewiniar（2006）内部扰动的时空变化特征 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
在使用WRF（V2．2）模式双向移动嵌套方案对台风Ewiniar模拟结果的基础上,利用空间上的离散功率谱和时间上的连续功率谱、最大熵谱方法对Ewiniar内部扰动的时空变化特征作简要的分析。结果表明：台风内部波动在空间上以长波分量占优,距台风中心越近,长波分量的比重越大,而台风外围的短波分量则有所增加;Ewiniar内部的振荡现象具有非对称特征,这种非对称特征在对流层中高层及台风前移的左右两侧的眼壁内表现得非常明显,越往台风外围、越往对流层低层越不明显;对流层低层的台风眼壁内部,无论是台风前移的左侧还是右侧,低频振荡总是占很大优势。 相似文献
18.
1 INTRODUCTION The typhoon is a destructive weather phenomenon that stands at the top of ten major natural disasters[1]. Typhoon-related damages are the immediate consequences of weather it brings forth, which include heavy rain, strong winds and storm surges (water gain). They cause flash floods, bring down houses and break through dams[1]. Of the research on typhoons for the recent 10 years[2], new advances have been reported on abrupt changes in the motion, structure and intensity of… 相似文献
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《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):184-203
Abstract Three widely used wave models, namely, the open ocean wave model (Cycle‐4.5, hereinafter referred to as WAM4.5) and the coastal models, Simulation of WAves Nearshore (Cycle III version 40.31, hereinafter referred to as SWAN) and the K‐model, are applied to Lake Erie to simulate waves at a spatial resolution of about 4 km. The results of a three‐week hindcast study are compared with buoy observations in terms of integrated parameters, one‐dimensional (1‐D) and two‐dimensional (2‐D) energy spectra, scatter plots and statistical analyses of the wave fields. The time development of the 1‐D spectra by the models matches the buoy measurements well. All the wave models tend to overpredict the wave heights and underpredict (particularly the K‐model) the peak period. SWAN performs best for the wave heights and WAM4.5 for the peak periods and is computationally less demanding, whereas the spatial resolution applied to Lake Erie seems to be too coarse for an adequate use of the K‐model. In general, WAM4.5 has advantages over coastal wave models in operational intermediate‐scale applications. 相似文献
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利用波作用理论对台风莫拉克登陆期间的降水进行诊断分析。结果表明:波作用密度异常能在一定程度上指示暴雨雨区发展移动,其异常值的空间分布能够反映雨区上空动力场和热力场的典型垂直结构特征。台风内中尺度波动与暴雨落区宏观上具有一定联系。为了详细研究台风内部的波动特征,利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model)模式模拟的高分辨率资料对台风登陆过程中波动特征进行分析,低波数波动的传播主导强对流的非对称分布,2波在登陆初期对对流分布起着关键作用,中尺度波动中同时存在涡旋罗斯贝波以及重力惯性波的特征,对登陆期间涡旋混合的现象有重要作用。 相似文献