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Summary From 1994 to 2003, fifty-five tropical cyclones entered the Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) Response Zone, or about 42% of
all named Atlantic tropical cyclones in this ten-year period, and 2003 was the fourth consecutive year for a tropical cyclone
to make landfall in Canada. The CHC forecasts all tropical cyclones that enter the CHC Response Zone and assumes the lead
in forecasting once the cyclone enters its area of forecast responsibility. This study acknowledges the challenges of forecasting
such tropical cyclones at extratropical latitudes. If a tropical cyclone has been declared extratropical, global models may
no longer use vortex bogussing to carry the cyclone, and even if it is modeled, large model errors often result. The purpose
of this study is to develop a new version of the Florida State University (FSU) hurricane superensemble with greater skill
in tracking tropical cyclones, especially at extratropical latitudes. This has been achieved from the development of the synthetic
superensemble, which is similar to the operational version of the multi-model superensemble that is used at FSU. The synthetic
superensemble differs in that is has a larger set of member models consisting of regular member models, synthetic versions
of these models, and the operational superensemble and its synthetic version. This synthetic superensemble is being used here
to forecast hurricane tracks from the 2001, 2002, and 2003 hurricane seasons. The track forecasts from this method have generally
less error than those of the member models, the operational superensemble, and the ensemble mean. This study shows that the
synthetic superensemble performs consistently well and would be an asset to operational hurricane track forecasting. 相似文献
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利用中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的1949—2019年热带气旋数据,统计分析近71 a影响黑龙江省的热带气旋发生时间、频率、强度、移动路径等特征。结果表明：近71 a影响黑龙江的热带气旋共有77个,平均1.08个·a-1,其中有28 a没有热带气旋影响黑龙江;近10 a是黑龙江受热带气旋影响的活跃期,西北太平洋生成的热带气旋频数与影响黑龙江的频数没有直接相关关系,出现El Ni1o或La Ni1a现象时对影响黑龙江的热带气旋起抑制作用;热带气旋影响黑龙江最早出现在5月,最晚出现在9月,8月出现频率最高,“七下八中下”是每年的活跃阶段;在强度上,影响黑龙江的超强台风居多,但近年趋于减少,更多低级别的热带气旋可维持较长生命史北上产生影响;牡丹江市为黑龙江最易受热带气旋影响的地区;按移动路径可将影响黑龙江的热带气旋分为两类,分别为北上热带气旋和偏东路径热带气旋,其中北上热带气旋又可进一步分为七类,其中经朝鲜半岛东转向出现的频次最多,但对黑龙江影响相对较小;经朝鲜半岛北上和高纬东转向更容易给黑龙江带来严重的风雨影响。 相似文献
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浙江省热带气旋倒槽暴雨气候特征研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
基于近40年热带气旋（Tropical Cyclone,简称TC）日降水和最佳路径等观测资料,采用数理统计、天气学分析等方法对浙江省TC倒槽暴雨分布特征及其与TC的相互关系进行研究。（1）浙江省年均会发生1.8次TC倒槽暴雨,占TC暴雨总数约4成,是浙江省台风暴雨中的一种重要形式。每年8—9月是TC倒槽暴雨高发期,暴雨主要发生在宁波南部至温州一带沿海地区,暴雨中心多位于台州和温州沿海。（2）引发浙江省TC倒槽暴雨的热带气旋多在粤东至浙南登陆之后北上转向或西北行,登陆当天最易发生暴雨且雨强最强。暴雨发生时,福建中部沿海经海峡至台湾东北部一带是TC高频活动区。（3）距TC中心2.5~5.0纬距之间和TC东北偏北象限是倒槽暴雨中心的高频落区;较强暴雨发生在TC强度为热带低压时,且强中心易位于TC东北偏东象限,极端强降水发生主要与热带低压和副高等相互作用形成的偏东暖湿急流、TC倒槽强辐合和TC东北偏东象限中尺度深对流系统频繁活动有关。 相似文献
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陈乾金 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1997,3(2):113-120
Based on the definition of cool summer and warm summer, statistical characteristics of severe tropical cyclones are studied over East China Sea using 1951-1994 typhoon and temperature data. It is foundthat the frequency, tracks, intensity and moving speed of the tropical cyclone between cold summer andwarm summer were much different. The backgtound features of the difference were also discussed incontrast. 相似文献
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近30年影响我国东南沿海的热带气旋降水强度变化特征分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用中国地面台站逐日降水资料和中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的热带气旋最佳路径资料研究了1978～2007年影响我国热带气旋降水强度的变化及其对我国东南沿海盛夏降水变化的影响.近30年影响我国东南沿海盛夏的热带气旋降水增加是导致我国东南沿海盛夏降水显著增加的主要原因.仅从热带气旋降水来看,东南沿海和内陆(包括江西、湖南东部和湖北南部)热带气旋降水强度显著增加,而影响热带气旋降水频次略有增加.通过对雨量站与引起降水热带气旋的中心距离的变化分析发现:内陆地区影响热带气旋距离显著下降,近距离热带气旋引起降水的增加,是该区域热带气旋降水强度增加的主要来源;而东南沿海地区近距离热带气旋降水增加不明显,热带气旋降水强度的增加主要由于同距离热带气旋降水强度的增加.热带气旋经过频次的空间的变化结果证实,近30年经过中国沿海的TC个数变化不大,仅福建沿海一带略有增加,而内陆地区则增加明显,且经过该区域时热带气旋移动速度变慢,这均与该区域近距离热带气旋降水的增加一致. 相似文献
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The effects of storm-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling on hurricane intensity are investigated using a 5-day cloud-resolving simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Two sensitivity simulations are performed in which the storm-induced cooling is either ignored or shifted close to the modeled storm track. Results show marked sensitivity of the model-simulated storm intensity to the magnitude and relative position with respect to the hurricane track. It is shown that incorporation of the storm-induced cooling, with an average value of 1.3℃, causes a 25-hPa weakening of the hurricane, which is about 20 hPa per 1℃ change in SST. Shifting the SST cooling close to the storm track generates the weakest storm, accounting for about 47% reduction in the storm intensity. It is found that the storm intensity changes are well correlated with the air-sea temperature difference. The results have important implications for the use of coupled hurricane-ocean models for numerical prediction of tropical cyclones. 相似文献
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基于IBTrACS提供的热带气旋最佳路径数据集,在统计分析历史热带气旋的发生年频次、发生位置、路径移动及强度变化等的基础上,建立了西北太平洋热带气旋轨迹合成模型。模型包括生成模型、移动模型、消亡模型及强度模型4个部分,并从地理轨迹密度、年登陆率、登陆风速分布三个方面,对模拟的气旋路径与历史气旋路径进行比较,以验证模型的准确性和可靠性。结果表明,构建的西北太平洋热带气旋全路径统计模拟模型稳健可靠,可进一步应用于研究区热带气旋的定量精细化的风险评估,能提高气旋风险灾害评估的可信度。 相似文献
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A statistical comparative analysis of tropical cyclone activity over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal (BoB) has been conducted using best-track data and wind radii information from 1977 to 2018 issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Results have shown that the annual variation in the frequency and duration of tropical cyclones has a significant increasing trend over the Arabian Sea and an insignificant decreasing trend over the BoB. The monthly frequency of tropical cyclones in both the Arabian Sea and the BoB shows a notable bimodal character, with peaks occurring in May and October–November, respectively. The maximum frequency of tropical cyclones occurs in the second peak as a result of the higher moisture content at mid-levels in the autumn. However, the largest proportion of strong cyclones (H1–H5 grades) occurs in the first peak as a result of the higher sea surface temperatures in early summer. Tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea break out later during the first peak and activity ends earlier during the second peak, in contrast with those in the over BoB. This is related to the onset and drawback times of the southwest monsoon in the two basins. Tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea are mainly generated in the eastern basin, whereas in the BoB the genesis locations have a meridional (zonal) distribution in May–June (October–November) as a result of the seasonal movement of the low-level positive vorticity belt. The Arabian Sea is dominated by western and northwestern tropical cyclones by that track west and NW, accounting for about 74.6%, whereas the tropical cyclones with a NE track account for only 25.4%. The proportions of the three types of tracks are similar in the BoB, with each accounting for about 33% of the tropical cyclones. The mean intensity and size of tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea are stronger and larger, respectively, than those over the BoB and the size of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean in early summer is larger than that in autumn. The asymmetrical structure of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean is affected by the topography and the longest radius of the 34 kt surface wind often lies in the eastern quadrant of the tropical cyclone circulation in both sea areas. FAN Xiao-ting (樊晓婷), LI Ying (李 英), et al. 相似文献
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A. A. Alekseeva 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2017,42(1):1-8
In contrast to the common opinion, hurricane winds in extratropical cyclones are a quite frequent phenomenon followed by huge damage, especially in densely populated areas. This phenomenon has been poorly studied and is hardly predictable so far. The features of hurricane winds in extratropical cyclones, and the similarity and difference in their structure as compared to those in tropical cyclones are revealed. 相似文献
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Tropical cyclone track and intensity prediction: The generation and assimilation of high-density, satellite-derived data 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
J. F. Le Marshall L. M. Leslie R. F. Abbey Jr. L. Qi 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2002,80(1-4):43-57
Summary The impact of recent scientific and technological advances in tropical cyclone track, intensity and structure modeling is
discussed. Since the early 1990s, developments have occurred in remote sensing, data assimilation procedures, numerical models
and high performance computing. In particular, there is now quasi-continuous high spatial and temporal resolution data coverage
over the previously data-sparse oceans where tropical cyclones spend most of their life cycles. There has been a rapid development
of data assimilation methodologies capable of using these data to initialize high-resolution prediction models. Model developments
have reached a stage of maturity where the representation of many of the physical processes necessary for improved tropical
cyclone track and intensity prediction are now included. Finally, available computer power has reached the teraflop range.
Most operational centers have high performance computers capable of tropical cyclone modeling at resolutions necessary for
skillful track and intensity simulations.
This article focuses on combining all of the above developments in a tropical cyclone data analysis and prediction system.
The system has produced statistically significant reductions in the mean forecast error statistics for tropical cyclone track
predictions and resulted in far more realistic simulations of tropical cyclone intensity and structure. A large number of
tropical cyclones have been modeled, with emphasis on those classified as being “difficult” storms to predict accurately.
These difficult storms are most responsible for rapidly growing forecast errors. Our results are illustrated by case studies
of such tropical cyclones.
Received October 9, 2001 Revised December 28, 2001 相似文献
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以MM5模式为试验模式，分别用增长模繁殖法（BGM）和模式物理过程扰（MPP）形成12个集合成员，对2005年登陆我国的8个热带气旋进行了52次路径集合预报试验，以寻找适合西北太平洋热带气旋路径的集合预报方法。结果表明:BGM方法的集合预报结果总体上好于控制试验结果，其中对强度较弱的热带气旋的集合预报效果更好。MPP方法的集合预报结果总体上不如控制试验结果，但对初始时刻强度达到台风的热带气旋的集合预报效果较好，集合预报相对于控制试验的改进效果明显。基于BGM方法和MPP方法集合预报的不同特点，将两种方法相结合形成扰动成员，这一综合方法的集合预报效果好于单一方法的集合预报效果。BGM方法和MPP方法的系统发散度总体上都偏小。 相似文献
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In earlier studies,objective techniques have been used to determine the contribution of tropical cyclones to precipitation(TCP)in a region,where the Tropical cyclone Precipitation Event(TPE)and the Regional Heavy Precipitation Events(RHPEs)are defined and investigated.In this study,TPE and RHPEs are combined to determine the Typhoon Regional Heavy Precipitation Events(TRHPEs),which is employed to evaluate the contribution of tropical cyclones to regional extreme precipitation events.Based on the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events(OITREE)and the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique(OSAT)to define TPE,temporal and spatial overlap indices are developed to identify the combined events as TRHPE.With daily precipitation data and TC best-track data over the western North Pacific from 1960 to 2018,86 TRHPEs have been identified.TRHPEs contribute as much as 20%of the RHPEs,but100%of events with extreme individual precipitation intensities.The major TRHPEs continued for approximately a week after tropical cyclone landfall,indicating a role of post landfall precipitation.The frequency and extreme intensity of TRHPEs display increasing trends,consistent with an observed positive trend in the mean intensity of TPEs as measured by the number of daily station precipitation observations exceeding 100 mm and 250 mm.More frequent landfalling Southeast and South China TCs induced more serious impacts in coastal areas in the Southeast and the South during 1990-2018 than1960-89.The roles of cyclone translation speed and"shifts"in cyclone tracks are examined as possible explanations for the temporal trends. 相似文献
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Impact of Saharan dust on landfalling North Atlantic tropical cyclones over North America in September 
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下载免费PDF全文 《大气和海洋科学快报》2023,16(1):100276
Using reanalysis data and model simulations, this study reveals an increase in September landfalling North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) during years that have a strengthened Saharan dust plume, and the related physical processes are investigated by analyzing the relationship of dust aerosol optical depth with TC track, intensity, and the related meteorological environment. Suppression of the sea surface temperature (SST) by the Saharan dust plume can hinder TC tracks over the central tropical North Atlantic, inducing westward development of TC tracks to the western tropical North Atlantic with higher SST, which is more conducive to TCs forming major hurricanes. This physical process increases TC landfalls in North America, especially major hurricane landfalls in the continental United States, leading to greater potential destructiveness.摘要本项研究利用再分析数据和模式模拟数据分析了沙尘的气溶胶光学厚度与台风的登陆, 轨迹, 强度及相关气象环境参数的关系, 揭示了9月北大西洋台风的登陆次数会在撒哈拉沙尘较强的年份中增加, 以及这一现象的物理机制. 撒哈拉沙尘对热带北大西洋中部海表温度具有抑制作用, 会阻碍该地区的台风活动, 因此台风只能向西移动进入海表温度较高的热带北大西洋西部, 从而更易于形成强台风. 这一物理过程将导致台风登陆北美大陆的频次增加, 特别是强台风登陆美国的可能性增强, 产生更大的潜在破坏性. 相似文献
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给出了一个嵌套于欧洲中期天气预报中心全球谱模式中的套网格模式，用于预报热带气旋路径趋势，提出了一种以欧洲中期天气预报中心提供的时距为24小时的预报场为基础的“接力预报”方法；设计了五种不同的“接力预报”方案；并对8507号和8509号两个热带气旋就各种不同预报方案进行了数值预报试验。结果表明，本模式对热带气旋路径趋势具有较强的预报能力，对疑难路径也具有一定的预报能力，为开展热带气旋的路径趋势预报提供了一个新的途径。文中还对影响热带气旋路径趋势的一些主要因子结合各预报结果进行了分析，为模式尽早投入业务提供了一定的依据。 相似文献