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Two independent ice data sets from the Greenland and Labrador Seas have been analyzed for the purpose of characterizing interannual and decadal time scale sea-ice extent anomalies during this century. Sea-ice concentration data for the 1953–1984 period revealed the presence of a large positive anomaly in the Greenland Sea during the 1960s which coincided with the great salinity anomaly, an upper-ocean low-salinity water mass that was observed to travel cyclonically around the northern North Atlantic during 1968–1982. This ice anomaly as well as several smaller ones propagated into the Labrador Sea and then across to the Labrador and east Newfoundland coast, over a period of 3 to 5 years. A complex empirical orthogonal function analysis of the same data also confirmed this propagation phenomenon. An inverse relation between sea-ice and salinity anomalies in the Greenland-Labrador Sea region was also generally found. An analysis of spring and summer ice-limit data obtained from Danish Meteorological Institute charts for the period 1901–1956 indicated the presence of heavy ice conditions (i.e., positive ice anomalies) in the Greenland Sea during 1902–1920 and in the late 1940s, and generally negative ice anomalies during the 1920s and 1930s. Only limited evidence of the propagation of Greenland Sea ice anomalies into the Labrador Sea was observed, however, probably because the data were from the ice-melt seasons. On the other hand, several large ice anomalies in the Greenland Sea occurred 2–3 years after large runoffs (in the early 1930s and the late 1940s) from northern Canada into the western Arctic Ocean. Similarly, a large runoff into the Arctic during 1964–1966 preceded the large Greenland Sea ice anomaly of the 1960s. These facts, together with recent evidence of climatic jumps in the Northern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation, suggest the existence of an interdecadal self-sustained climate cycle in the Arctic. In the Greenland Sea, this cycle is characterized by a state of large sea-ice extent overlying an upper layer of cool, relatively fresh water that does not convectively overturn, which alternates every 10–15 years with a state of small sea-ice extent and relatively warm saline surface water that frequently overturns.Dedicated to Robert W. Stewart on the occasion of his retirement 相似文献
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G. M. Flato 《Climate Dynamics》2004,23(3-4):229-241
The simulation of sea-ice in global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP1 and CMIP2) is analyzed. CMIP1 simulations are of the unpertubed control climate whereas in CMIP2, all models have been forced with the same 1% yr–1 increase in CO2 concentration, starting from a near equilibrium initial condition. These simulations are not intended as forecasts of climate change, but rather provide a means of evaluating the response of current climate models to the same forcing. The difference in modeled response therefore indicates the range (or uncertainty) in model sensitivity to greenhouse gas and other climatic perturbations. The results illustrate a wide range in the ability of climate models to reproduce contemporary sea-ice extent and thickness; however, the errors are not obviously related to the manner in which sea-ice processes are represented in the models (e.g. the inclusion or neglect of sea-ice motion). The implication is that errors in the ocean and atmosphere components of the climate model are at least as important. There is also a large range in the simulated sea-ice response to CO2 change, again with no obvious stratification in terms of model attributes. In contrast to results obtained earlier with a particular model, the CMIP ensemble yields rather mixed results in terms of the dependence of high-latitude warming on sea-ice initial conditions. There is an indication that, in the Arctic, models that produce thick ice in their control integration exhibit less warming than those with thin ice. The opposite tendency appears in the Antarctic (albeit with low statistical significance). There is a tendency for models with more extensive ice coverage in the Southern Hemisphere to exhibit greater Antarctic warming. Results for the Arctic indicate the opposite tendency (though with low statistical significance).A list of the CMIP modeling groups is included in the Acknowledgements section. 相似文献
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Antarctic sea-ice relationships with indices of the atmospheric circulation of the Southern Hemisphere 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Andrew M Carleton 《Climate Dynamics》1989,3(4):207-220
A link between the Antarctic sea-ice extent and low-frequency atmospheric variations, particularly ENSO, has been suggested by recent modeling and empirical studies. This question is examined here using a high-resolution (by week, by region) data base of Antarctic sea-ice extent for the 1973–1982 period. Although of relatively short duration by Northern Hemisphere standards, such a data base offers an opportunity rare in Southern Hemisphere climate studies. The seaice variations are examined in the context of longer-term indices of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. These are a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and an index of sea-level pressure (SLP) wavenumber one in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. The indices are updated through 1982, and their associations with regional-scale pressure indices in the Australia-New Zealand sector are also examined. The 1973–1982 period is anomalous when compared with the period 1951–1972. Correlation analysis of the monthly sea ice and circulation index values reveals that much of the apparent link between the ice and the SOI suggested in previous studies arises from autocorrelations present in both data sets and the strong annual cycle of sea-ice extent. Removing these effects from the data and re-running the correlations reveals that most of the resulting significant associations between the ice and one or other of the circulation indices can probably be explained on the basis of chance. In order to reconcile these findings with previous studies that show some strong ice-circulation interactions on regional scales, only those months in which significant correlations occur between both largescale circulation indices and the sea ice are examined further. These occur preferentially in the Ross and Weddell sectors, which constitute the regions contributing most to the variability of Antarctic sea ice. The analysis suggests that the sea-ice-extent changes lag the SOI by several months but may precede changes in extratropical SLP wavenumber one. Confirmation of these tentative regional ice extent-circulation teleconnections necessarily awaits the forward extension of the high-resolution sea-ice data base beyond the 10 years available here.This paper is based on material presented at the Conference on Mechanisms of Interannual and Longer-Term Climatic Variations held at the University of Melbourne, Australia: December 8–12, 1986. 相似文献
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Analysis of the projected regional sea-ice changes in the Southern Ocean during the twenty-first century 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Using the set of simulations performed with atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), the projected regional distribution of sea ice for the
twenty-first century has been investigated. Averaged over all those model simulations, the current climate is reasonably well
reproduced. However, this averaging procedure hides the errors from individual models. Over the twentieth century, the multimodel
average simulates a larger sea-ice concentration decrease around the Antarctic Peninsula compared to other regions, which
is in qualitative agreement with observations. This is likely related to the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM)
index over the twentieth century, in both observations and in the multimodel average. Despite the simulated positive future
trend in SAM, such a regional feature around the Antarctic Peninsula is absent in the projected sea-ice change for the end
of the twenty-first century. The maximum decrease is indeed located over the central Weddell Sea and the Amundsen–Bellingshausen
Seas. In most models, changes in the oceanic currents could play a role in the regional distribution of the sea ice, especially
in the Ross Sea, where stronger southward currents could be responsible for a smaller sea-ice decrease during the twenty-first
century. Finally, changes in the mixed layer depth can be found in some models, inducing locally strong changes in the sea-ice
concentration.
相似文献
| W. LefebvreEmail: |
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In order to quantitatively investigate the role of leads and sea-ice in air-mass modification, aircraft observations were
conducted over the partially ice-covered Sea of Okhotsk. We investigated two cold-air outbreak events with different sea-ice
concentrations. In both cases, the difference between the temperatures of surface air and the sea surface (ΔT) dropped rapidly with the accumulated fetch-width of leads up to about 35-40 km, and then decreased very slowly. The surface
sensible heat flux originating from open water was about 300 W m−2 within a few kilometres from the coast and decreased with increasing accumulated fetch-width. The sensible heat flux was
about 100 W m−2 on average. These results indicate that the downwind air-mass modification depends mainly on the total (accumulated) extent
of open water. The total buoyancy flux
calculated by the joint frequency distribution method correlated very well with ice concentration. Such a relationship was
not clear in the case of the moisture flux
. The ratio between rising thermals
and cold downdrafts
differed significantly between upwind and downwind regions; that is, the buoyancy flux was dominated by
in the developing stage of the boundary layer, while
also became important after the development of the boundary layer. 相似文献
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The nature of the reduction trend and quasi-decadal oscillation in Northern Hemisphere sea-ice extent is investigated. The trend and oscillation that seem to be two separate phenomena have been found in data. This study examines a hypothesis that the Arctic sea-ice reduction trend in the last three decades amplified the quasi-decadal Arctic sea-ice oscillation (ASIO) due to a positive ice/ocean-albedo feedback, based on data analysis and a conceptual model proposed by Ikeda et al. The theoretical, conceptual model predicts that the quasi-decadal oscillation is amplified by the thinning sea-ice, leading to the ASIO, which is driven by the strong positive feedback between the atmosphere and ice-ocean systems. Such oscillation is predicted to be out-of-phase between the Arctic Basin and the Nordic Seas with a phase difference of 3/4, with the Nordic Seas leading the Arctic. The wavelet analysis of the sea ice data reveals that the quasi-decadal ASIO occurred actively since the 1970s following the trend starting in the 1960s (i.e., as sea-ice became thinner and thinner), as the atmosphere experienced quasi-decadal oscillations during the last century. The wavelet analysis also confirms the prediction of such out-of-phase feature between these two basins, which varied from 0.62 in 1960 to 0.25 in 1995. Furthermore, a coupled ice-ocean general circulation model (GCM) was used to simulate two scenarios, one without the greenhouse gas warming and the other having realistic atmospheric forcing along with the warming that leads to sea-ice reduction trend. The quasi-decadal ASIO is excited in the latter case compared to the no-warming case. The wavelet analyses of the simulated ice volume were also conducted to derive decadal ASIO and similar phase relationship between the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas. An independent data source was used to confirm such decadal oscillation in the upper layer (or freshwater) thickness, which is consistent with the model simulation. A modified feedback loop for the sea-ice trend and ASIO was proposed based on the previous one by Mysak and Venegas and the ice/albedo and cloud/albedo feedabcks, which are responsible for the sea ice reduction trend. 相似文献
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Sensitivity of sea ice to wind-stress and radiative forcing since 1500: a model study of the Little Ice Age and beyond 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Three different reconstructed wind-stress fields which take into account variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation, one
general circulation model wind-stress field, and three radiative forcings (volcanic activity, insolation changes and greenhouse
gas changes) are used with the UVic Earth System Climate Model to simulate the surface air temperature, the sea-ice cover,
and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) since 1500, a period which includes the Little Ice Age (LIA). The
simulated Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature, used for model validation, agrees well with several temperature reconstructions.
The simulated sea-ice cover in each hemisphere responds quite differently to the forcings. In the Northern Hemisphere, the
simulated sea-ice area and volume during the LIA are larger than the present-day area and volume. The wind-driven changes
in sea-ice area are about twice as large as those due to thermodynamic (i.e., radiative) forcing. For the sea-ice volume,
changes due to wind forcing and thermodynamics are of similar magnitude. Before 1850, the simulations suggest that volcanic
activity was mainly responsible for the thermodynamically produced area and volume changes, while after 1900 the slow greenhouse
gas increase was the main driver of the sea-ice changes. Changes in insolation have a small effect on the sea ice throughout
the integration period. The export of the thicker sea ice during the LIA has no significant effect on the maximum strength
of the AMOC. A more important process in altering the maximum strength of the AMOC and the sea-ice thickness is the wind-driven
northward ocean heat transport. In the Southern Hemisphere, there are no visible long-term trends in the simulated sea-ice
area or volume since 1500. The wind-driven changes are roughly four times larger than those due to radiative forcing. Prior
to 1800, all the radiative forcings could have contributed to the thermodynamically driven changes in area and volume. In
the 1800s the volcanic forcing was dominant, and during the first part of the 1900s both the insolation changes and the greenhouse
gas forcing are responsible for thermodynamically produced changes. Finally, in the latter part of the 1900s the greenhouse
gas forcing is the dominant factor in determining the sea-ice changes in the Southern Hemisphere.
相似文献
| Jan SedláčekEmail: |
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Three ice cores and a set of snow pit samples collected on James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula, in 1979, 1981 and 1991 have been analyzed for water stable isotope content D or 18O (isotopic temperature) and major chemical species. A reliable and detailed chronological scale has been established first for the upper 24.5 m of water equivalent (1990–1943) where various data sets can be compared, then extended down to 59.5 m of water equivalent (1847) with the aid of seasonal variations and the sulphate peak reflecting the 1883 Krakatoa volcanic eruption. At James Ross Island, sea-salt aerosol is generally produced by ice-free marine surfaces during the summer months, although some winter sea-salt events have been observed. For the upper part of the core (1990–1943), correlations (positive or negative) were calculated between isotopic temperature, chloride content (a sea-salt indicator), sea-ice extent, regional atmospheric temperature changes and atmospheric circulation. The D and chloride content correlation was then extended back to 1847, making it possible to estimate decadal sea-ice cover fluctuations over the study period. Our findings suggest that ice-core records from James Ross Island reflect the recent warming and sea-ice decrease trends observed in the Antarctic Peninsula area from the mid-1940s. 相似文献
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Sea ice has a major influence on climate in high latitudes. In this paper we analyzed the impact of removal of Arctic sea-ice cover on the climate simulated by a T42 20-level version of the French spectral model Emeraude. The control experiment was the second winter of an annual cycle simulation of the present climate. In the perturbed simulation the Arctic sea-ice cover was replaced by open ocean maintained at the freezing temperature of sea water. The zonal mean patterns of the model response were found to be in good agreement with earlier simulations of Fletcher et al. and Warshaw and Rapp. The atmospheric warming, caused by the increase of upward fluxes of sensible and latent heat and of longwave radiation from the ice-free ocean surface, is largely limited to the high latitudes poleward of 70° N and the lower half of the troposphere and leads to a surface pressure decrease and a precipitation increase over this area. We also analyze the geographical distribution of the response and the mechanisms that can explain the simulated cooling over Eurasia in relation to the energy budget at the surface. Finally, we discuss the reduction of cloud cover over the ice-free Arctic, which was an unexpected result of our simulation, and conclude that further studies are necessary to resolve the question of cumulus convection and cloud process parameterization in high latitudes.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil 相似文献
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Studies have suggested that sea-ice cover east and west of Greenland fluctuates out-of phase as a part of the Atlantic decadal climate variability, and greater changes are possible under global warming conditions. In this study, the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to the distribution of surface fresh-water flux is explored using a global isopycnal ocean model. An Arctic ice related fresh-water flux of 0.1 Sv entering the Nordic Seas is shown to reduce the maximum overturning by 1 to 2 Sv (106 m3 s–1). A further decrease of 3 to 5 Sv in the MOC is observed when the fresh-water flux is shifted from the Fram Strait to the southern Baffin Bay area. Surprisingly, the salinity in much of the upper Nordic Seas actually increases when the Arctic fresh-water source is the strongest there, as a result of enhanced global overturning. It reflects the great influence of Labrador Sea convection on this models MOC. By applying a weaker surface fresh-water transport perturbation (0.02 Sv) on the Baffin Bay area and therefore perturbing the Labrador Sea Water (LSW) formation, we have also investigated the interaction between the overflows across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge and the LSW and find that, with the same surface forcing conditions in the Nordic Seas, volume transport of the overflows weakens when the LSW formation intensifies. 相似文献