共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 296 毫秒
1.
An extraordinary heat wave occurred in Serbia from July 14 to July 24 in 2007. Record values of the maximum temperatures were observed over almost the whole territory of Serbia and in Smederevska Palanka, a temperature of 44.9°C was registered, which was the absolute maximum value ever recorded. The highest increase over the previous absolute maximum temperature, dating back to 1888, of 3.1°C was registered in Belgrade. The Warm Spell Duration Indicator, from which the duration and severity of the heat waves are estimated, was applied to the series of the daily maximum temperatures in Smederevska Palanka. An analysis of the daily maximum temperatures and heat waves during the summer of 2007 revealed significant changes in the trends of anomalies and extreme (90%) quantiles. In addition, the main characteristics of the heat wave and the circulation conditions which caused the heat wave in Serbia during the summer 2007 were analyzed. 相似文献
2.
Paleoclimatic studies of the Medieval Solar Maximum (c. A.D. 1100–1250, corresponding with the span of the Medieval Warm Epoch) may prove useful because it provides a better analog to the present solar forcing than the intervening era. The Medieval Solar Activity Maximum caused the cosmogenic isotope production minimum during the 12th and 13th Centuries A.D. reflected by 14C and10Be records stored in natural archives. These records suggest solar activity has returned to Medieval Solar Maximum highs after a prolonged period of reduced solar activity. Climate forcing by increased solar activity may explain some of this century's temperature rise without assuming unacceptably high climate sensitivity. By analogy with the Medieval Solar Activity Maximum, the contemporary solar activity maximum may be projected to last for 150 years. The maximum temperature increase forced by increased solar activity stays well below the predicted doubled atmospheric CO2 greenhouse forcing. 相似文献
3.
The Last Glacial Maximum climate over Europe and western Siberia: a PMIP comparison between models and data 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3
M. Kageyama O. Peyron S. Pinot P. Tarasov J. Guiot S. Joussaume G. Ramstein 《Climate Dynamics》2001,17(1):23-43
Under the framework of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), 17 climate models, 16 of which are atmospheric
general circulation models, have been run to simulate the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 years ago) using the
same set of boundary conditions. Parallel to these numerical experiments, new, consistent, data bases have been developed
on a continental scale. The present work compares the range of the model responses to the large perturbation corresponding
to the conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum with consistently derived climate reconstructions from pollen records over Europe
and western Siberia. It accounts for the differences in the model results due to the models themselves and directly compares
this “error bar” due to the models to the uncertainties in the climate reconstructions from the pollen records. Overall the
Last Glacial Maximum climate simulated by the models over western Europe is warmer, especially in winter, and wetter than
the one depicted by the reconstructions. This is the region where the reconstructed increase in temperature, precipitation
and moisture index from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present conditions is largest. The same disagreement, but of smaller
amplitude, is found over Central Europe and the eastern Mediterranean Basin, while models and data are in broad agreement
over western Siberia. The numerous modelling results allow a study of the link between the changes in atmospheric circulation
and those in temperature, and an interpretation of the discrepancies in precipitation in terms of those in temperature.
Received: 1 February 2000 / Accepted: 9 May 2000 相似文献
4.
利用2006-2011年CINRAD/CD雷达在青藏高原东北部(以下简称高原)探测到的110次强对流风暴过程,运用WSR-88D冰雹探测算法(HDA)计算强冰雹指数(SHI)和最大预期冰雹直径(MEHS)并进行探测效果检验.提出对HDA原默认参数进行本地化并给出本地化方案,明显地改善了探测效果,正确率由85％提高到89％,虚警率由41％降低到21％,临界成功指数由53％升高到75％,MEHS大于观测尺寸的百分比由74％降到33％.结果对CINRAD/CD雷达探测冰雹有重要参考价值. 相似文献
5.
Maximum entropy spectra of some rainfall and river flow time series from southern and central India 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Summary Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis (MESA) Method is a powerful alternative to the traditionally used Blackman Tukey (BT) and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) Methods in hydrologic and climatologic time series analysis. Maximum entropy spectra of annual rainfall time series measured at Mangalore and Waltair and monthly flow time series of Godavari and Krishna Rivers in India are presented and compared with the spectra obtained by using BT and FFT methods. A recently developed Bayesian decision rule is applied to determine the length of filters in MESA. Sensitivity of the maximum entropy spectra to the length of filter used is also discussed.
With 6 Figures 相似文献
Zusammenfassung In hydrologischen und klimatologischen Zeitreihenanalysen stellt die Maximale Entropie Spektralanalyse (MESA) eine Alternative zur traditionellen Blackman-Tukey (BT) und schnellen Fouriertransformation (FFT) dar. Es werden die maximalen Entropiespektra der jährlichen Niederschlagszeitreihe in Mangalore und Waltair und die monatlichen Durchflußzeitreihen der Flüsse Godavari und Krishna (Indien) präsentiert und mit den Spektren, die man durch BT und FFT erhält, verglichen. Eine kürzlich entwickelte Entscheidungsregel wurde herangezogen, um die Filterlänge für MESA zu bestimmen. Der Einfluß der Filterlänge auf die maximalen Entropiespektra wird ebenfalls diskutiert.
With 6 Figures 相似文献
6.
The seasonal variation of lightning flash activity over the Indian subcontinent (0°N–35°N and 60°E–100°E) is studied using the quality checked monthly lightning flash data obtained from lightning imaging sensor on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. This paper presents results of spatio-temporal variability of lightning activity over the Indian subcontinent. The study of seasonal total lightning flashes indicates that the lightning flash density values are in qualitative agreement with the convective activity observed over this region. Maximum seasonal total flash counts are observed during the monsoon season. The propagation of the inter-tropical convergence zone over this region is also confirmed. Synoptic conditions responsible for variation of lightning activity are also investigated with the help of an observed dataset. The mean monthly flash counts show a peak in the month of May, which is the month of maximum temperatures over this region. Maximum flash density (40.2 km?2 season?1) is observed during the pre-monsoon season at 25.2°N/91.6°E and the annual maximum flash density of 28.2 km?2 year?1 is observed at 33.2°N/74.6°E. The study of the inter-annual variability of flash counts exhibits bimodal nature with the first maximum in April/May and second maximum in August/September. 相似文献
7.
根据福建南部沿海气象站和水文站1961—2007年降水资料,分析其暴雨特征,应用概率论方法和水文气象法,推求福建南部沿海24 h可能最大降水。结果显示：①福建南部沿海的暴雨主要集中于春夏两季,冷暖空气交绥的锋面暴雨以及台风等热带天气系统所致的暴雨是福建南部沿海最主要的两种暴雨类型。即使同处暴雨一致区,暴雨强度及出现的区域也有一定的偶然性。②采用皮尔逊-Ⅲ型法计算不同重现期24 h的最大降水量时,如果不考虑降水的随机性,不做暴雨一致区的特大暴雨移置和特大值处理,将会影响概率论法计算结果的合理性。③暴雨模式的拟定是整个工作的基础,所选暴雨模式中地形对降水有显著的增幅作用,可认为是高效率暴雨模式,故选择水汽放大法计算,与概率论方法比较,计算结果是合理的。 相似文献
8.
Clouds are extremely important with regard to the transfer of solar radiation at Earth's surface. This study investigates Cumulus Solar Irradiance Reflection (CSIR) using ground-based pyranometers. CSIR events are short-term increases in solar radiation observed at the surface as a result of reflection off the sides of convective clouds. When Sun-cloud observer geometry is favorable, these occurrences produce characteristic spikes in the pyranometer traces and solar irradiance values may exceed expected clear-sky values. Ultraviolet CSIR events were investigated during the summer of 1995 using UVA and UVB pyranometers. Observed data were compared to clear-sky curves which were generated using a third degree polynomial best-fit line technique. Periods during which the observed data exceeded this clear-sky curve were identified as CSIR events. The magnitude of a CSIR event was determined by two different quantitative calculations. The MAC (magnitude above clear-sky) is an absolute measure of the difference between the observed and clear-sky irradiances. Maximum MAC values of 3.4 Win−2 and 0.0169 Wm−2 were observed at the UV-A and UV-B wavelengths, respectively. The second calculation determined the percentage above clear-sky (PAC) which indicated the relative magnitude of a CSIR event. Maximum UV-A and UV-B PAC magnitudes of 10.1% and 7.8%, respectively, were observed during the study. Also of interest was the duration of the CSIR events which is a function of Sun-cloud-sensor geometry and the speed of cloud propagation over the measuring site. In both the UV-A and UV-B wavelengths, significant CSIR durations of up to 30 minutes were observed. C 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. 相似文献
9.
10.
Summary Spatio-temporal characteristics of the 25–50-day oscillations are investigated using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and spectral analysis with the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM). Daily pressure values over India during 1978 are used in this study. Power spectra of the temporal coefficients of the two leading EOFs show the existence of a low frequency oscillation with a period range 25–50-day over all India. An analysis using extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) indicates North-Eastward propagating 25–50-day mode. The analysis EOF has allowed to establish a relationship between the 25–50-day oscillation and the activity of the summer monsoon. The North-Eastward propagation of this mode is also confirmed by the simple EOF analysis.With 9 Figures 相似文献
11.
Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis of the annual rainfall series for 1887–1976 (90 years) for Massachusetts (northeastern USA.) shows T = 17.8 (very near the 18.6 year luni-solar signal) as the most prominent periodicity. However, it explains only 12% variance. Also, the next prominent periodicity is T = 2.72 years, i.e. in the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, T = 2–3 years) region. Also, regular periodicities account for only 50% variance, leaving 50% as a random component. Hence, predictions are unreliable. Roughly, excess rainfall during 1990–1994 and droughts during 1992–2002 are indicated; but occasional years of opposite behavior cannot be ruled out. 相似文献
12.
Non-harmonic spectral analysis to investigate periodicity in hydrologic and climatologic time series
G. Padmanabhan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1991,43(1-2):31-42
Summary Some hydrologic, climatologic and artificially generated time series are analyzed for periodic components using a nonharmonic (NH) method of spectral estimation. The NH spectra are compared with those obtained by using the traditional Blackman and Tukey (BT) and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) methods and with the relatively recent Maximum Entropy (ME) and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) methods. The NH method appears to be promising.With 12 Figures 相似文献
13.
采用最大惩罚T检验（Penalized Maximum T Test,PMT）方法,结合海洋台站元数据信息,选取临近气象站做为参考站,对中国南海9个海洋观测台站月平均SST资料序列进行均一性检验,在充分考虑区域性气候变化因素的影响下,对检验结果进行气候合理性分析并对不连续点进行订正。结果表明:（1）通过多种数据的相关性比较和分析发现,临近气象站的气温资料序列是南海台站SST资料订正最优的参考序列;（2）平均每个海洋台站SST资料序列存在1~2个不连续点,其中站址变迁、仪器变更和环境变化对均一性的影响较大;（3）订正后的南海SST序列质量有大幅提高,表明南海SST具有更明显的增暖趋势。 相似文献
14.
从归一化植被指数提取气溶胶光学信息 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
利用卫星遥感和改进归一化植被指数(NDVI)算法,在最大值合成的MVC-NDVI与监测日NDVI差值中提取气溶胶浑浊度信息,形成新的气溶胶光学指数产品,通过监测珠三角地区细粒子气溶胶扩散过程的验证,表明方法是成功的。基于理论和实例分析,提出气溶胶研究应当从本地区地理环境和气溶胶特征的实际出发,重视细粒子气溶胶作为稳定的胶体系统对空气质量、天气系统和气候变化的影响,重视卫星遥感在气溶胶监测中的不可替代的作用。 相似文献
15.
“浣熊”强度变化的环境背景和卫星观测分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
利用实况观测定位和强度资料、NCEP的1°×1°全球最终分析资料、NOAA周平均1°×1°海温再分析资料和FY卫星水汽图像,分析台风浣熊(0801)的环境背景条件和内核结构演变与强度变化的关系.结果表明:(1)环境风垂直切变增大至10m·s~(-1)左右与南海北部海表温度逐步减小导致最大可能强度不断降低是"浣熊"快速发展过程中断并减弱的重要外部条件;(2)卫星水汽图像显示内核结构存在眼壁破裂和复原现象,该现象精确地反映其强度变化.眼壁破裂(复原)过程导致"浣熊"减弱(增强). 相似文献
16.
To stimulate a discussion on the role of tropical atmospheric circulation versus thermohaline circulation changes for tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) variations, we present a record of the SST contrast (SST) between the tropical northwest and southeast Atlantic from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Late Holocene. The SST was calculated from two alkenone-derived SST records; one from the Caribbean Sea and the other from the Angola Basin. Changes in the cross-equatorial SST were then compared with an abundance record of Florisphaera profunda from the equatorial Atlantic, which is indicative of SE trade-wind induced variations in thermocline depth in the equatorial divergence zone. This comparison implies that the Last Glacial Maximum, the Younger Dryas, and the Mid to Late Holocene were periods of strong SE trade winds, which led to an intense upwelling-related cooling in the southeast Atlantic and concurrently enhanced advection of warm tropical South Atlantic waters into the western tropical Atlantic. Accordingly, a coupled ocean-atmospheric process has probably created a dipole-like SST distribution pattern in the tropical Atlantic during these three distinct climatic periods. In contrast, Heinrich Event 1, the Bølling-Allerød, and the Early Holocene were intervals of weakened SE trade winds, causing a warming in the southeast Atlantic. However, synchronous warming in both regions during Heinrich Event 1 can be partially attributed to a weakening of thermohaline overturning which caused a reduced northward heat transport from the low-latitude to the high-latitude North Atlantic. 相似文献
17.
B. S. Yurchak 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2018,43(9):581-590
The spiral signatures of infrared satellite images of the tropical cyclone Phanfone observed in the Northwest Pacific in August 2002 are analyzed using the hyperbolic-logarithmic model of a streamline in the Rankine vortex. Maximum wind speed Vmax and some other physical characteristics of the cyclone are estimated by identifying hyperbolic-logarithmic spirals (RLS) which “fit” into the geometric boundaries of the signatures. The comparison of temporal variations in Vmax with the data of meteorological services of the USA (JTWC) and Japan (RSMC) revealed satisfactory agreement of the time course of tropical cyclone intensity from the HLS estimates and JTWC data. The absolute estimates of intensity were within an interval between the corresponding JTWC and RSMC data. It seems that if the presented approach is enhanced, the HLS estimation may be a useful contribution to the empirical methods of tropical cyclone intensity determination by remote sensing means. 相似文献
18.
19.
Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis of the annual mean surface temperature series for land masses and sea in the northern and southern hemispheres indicated long-term linear warming trends of (0.12 to 0.56) °C/century with superposed significant periods in the ranges T = 5–6 yr, 10–11 yr, 15 yr, 20 yr, 28–32 yr, and 55–80 yr. Extrapolation in future indicated for 2000–2030 a departure of (+0.4 °C) above the 1950–70 level. However, for the 1980s, the observed values are above the expected level, probably indicating large greenhouse effects due to human intervention. In that case, our predictions would be underestimates. 相似文献
20.
古气候模拟比较计划（PMIP）是古气候数值模拟领域一项重大的国际合作研究计划,其主旨是为古气候模拟和模拟结果评估提供一个协调机制,理解过去气候变化的物理机制和气候反馈的重要作用,为未来气候预估提供科学依据。同时,通过对比分析验证模式的模拟性能,探索其不确定性,促进耦合气候系统模式的发展。PMIP目前进行到第四阶段（PMIP4)。PMIP4进一步加强了与第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的协作,选取了5组共同关注的PMIP4-CMIP6古气候模拟试验（中全新世、末次盛冰期、过去千年、末次间冰期和上新世暖期),考察气候系统对不同气候背景的综合响应。除此以外,PMIP4还设计了众多敏感性试验研究不同外强迫因子的影响。PMIP4模拟试验不仅为古气候研究提供大量的模拟数据,还将服务于CMIP6及其他众多模式比较计划。 相似文献