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海洋生态安全是国家生态安全的重要组成部分,科学评价海洋生态是否安全是准确把握海洋开发程度的重要保证。本研究剖析了海洋生态安全的内涵和特征,在此基础上构建了基于PSR模型的海洋生态安全评价的指标体系和评价模型,同时利用层次分析法结合熵权法选取指标及确定权重,对于2001-2010年的海洋生态安全总体能力进行综合评价。结果显示:中国海洋生态安全综合指数总体上呈现出在曲折中上升,但在2003年和2009-2010年又略有下降,中国海洋生态安全目前处于一般状态。 相似文献
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海洋平台现已广泛应用于海洋资源开发,对其进行安全评价是一项具有全局性的重要任务。现今的评价多集中于其使用与维护,且评价方法的可信度与可解释性较差。文章较为系统地介绍了未确知集的基本知识及与模糊集的区别,并引入海洋平台安全评价中,对平台组块装船过程进行了安全评价,结果表明,评价结果的置信度与可解释性增强,该方法对海洋工程具有重要的理论与现实意义。 相似文献
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海洋平台长期暴露在海洋环境当中,因此复杂的海上环境载荷以及爆炸、火灾等偶然载荷作用会对平台的安全造成很大的威胁。安全储备概念的提出就是为了对结构的安全性进行量化评价。对现阶段结构安全储备的研究进行分析和总结,为海洋平台结构安全性的定量分析提供思路,从而能够更合理地提高海洋平台结构的安全储备。首先概述了海洋平台方面安全储备的发展过程。综述了结构安全储备方面的相关概念、分类方式、评价标准以及相关的安全储备性能指标。从确定性研究方法和基于概率的研究方法两方面,对海洋平台安全储备研究现状进行对比和总结,并分别列举了构件层次的安全储备和与海洋平台结构相关的RSR和CMR等安全储备指标及研究方法,并提出了一些关于海洋平台结构安全储备研究的问题和思路。 相似文献
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科学有效地评价胶州湾生态安全程度,是胶州湾地区可持续发展的前提。文章基于PSR模型建立评价指标体系,利用AHP-熵权法确立指标权重,对2007—2016年胶州湾生态安全的发展状况进行了综合评价,并从压力、状态、响应3个方面对影响胶州湾生态安全的主要因素进行系统分析。研究结果表明:胶州湾生态安全指数整体呈波动上升态势,但在2010—2013年略有下降,并在2014年有大幅度的回升直至2016年。生态安全指数在0.4～0.6间波动,整体处于"一般"的生态安全状态。最后,文章提出通过坚持控制入海污水排放量和环境污染,加强海洋生态保护修复与海洋保护区建设,进一步完善胶州湾生态安全保护相关法律制度,注重海洋科技人才培养等方式来促进胶州湾地区生态安全水平的提高。 相似文献
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《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2020,(Z1)
海上石油平台结构复杂、所处环境极端,一旦发生事故,若不能准确及时地对人员进行疏散撤离将会造成严重的人员伤亡和经济损失。本文以深海极端环境中的海洋石油平台为研究对象,基于BIM和改进Multi-agent的ABM技术建立了面向海洋平台的最优疏散仿真模型,构建反映被疏散者与海洋平台耦合关系的熟悉度社会力模型,优化被疏散者对逃生路线的选择,并以整体疏散时间为评价指标对比评估模型的性能。经实验对比验证,利用本文建立的模型能够一定程度上提高疏散空间平衡性,缩短人群整体疏散时间,较为真实地反映实际人员疏散情况。 相似文献
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海洋石油钻井平台是海洋油气勘探开发的重要手段,其安全就位和稳定施工,与井场区海底的工程地质条件密切相关。就事关平台安全的工程地质条件预测评价技术作了研究,评价预测了与自升式钻井平台稳定作业有关的软弱下卧地层的穿插和持力、海底斜坡条件下工程地质层稳定性、半潜式钻井平台的锚固力以及不同底质条件下海底底流的冲蚀。推荐了实践有效的半经验计算公式,为海洋石油钻井平台井场工程地质条件的稳定评价提供参考。 相似文献
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在海洋开发利用活动日益增多,海洋环境保护压力日益增大的背景下,进行海洋生态环境状况科学评价方法的研究可以为开展海洋生态环境监测评估与海洋生态环境保护政策制定提供科学依据,促进改善海洋生态环境状况。本文首先基于贝叶斯网络基本理论,构建了海洋生态环境状况贝叶斯网络评价模型;再以山东省为例,充分融合专家经验知识与客观数据,从定性与定量两个角度评价了2013—2019年山东省近海生态环境状况,分析了各评价指标间关系及其对近海生态环境状况的影响程度。评价结果表明2013—2019年山东省近海生态环境状况保持一般状态,海洋环境质量与海洋生态灾害类指标对评价结果影响最大,山东省海洋环境保护工作初见成效。研究结果表明该评价模型能有效评价海洋生态环境状况,分析结果对于环境保护政策制定具有一定的借鉴意义。 相似文献
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最大熵模型是以最大熵理论为基础的一种物种分布模型。经过十几年的发展,最大熵模型的计算方法不断迭代并趋于稳定,并在陆地生物适生区预测中开展了系统的、成熟的应用。而在海洋环境中,最大熵模型的应用也已经进入到了快速发展的阶段。但是受限于数据量的匮乏,最大熵模型在海洋环境中的应用仍旧需要不断的探索。最大熵模型具有小样本量预测的优势,其相关应用成果为单一物种、生物群落、生物多样性的保护,生物入侵事件的管控和预警,渔业养殖的减耗增效等提供了关键性的数据支撑,同时在海洋古生态学研究、海洋基因资源获取、海洋极端环境生物多样性保护等方面极具发展前景。 相似文献
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Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms. For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms, a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper. The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore platforms. It is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagati... 相似文献
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The target reliability index has been effectively used as the best solution to deal with the relationship between the structural safety and the optimal economy in any structural design.However,the target reliability index for offshore jacket platforms based on different sea areas in China has never been calibrated.This paper presents an approach for its calibration,and suggests many kinds of associated load cases.The uncertainties of loads and structural resistance are mainly investigated.The target reliability index for structural components,tubular joints and piles of offshore jacket platforms are discussed respectively in detail.Finally,through the calibrated results from the offshore jacket platforms of QK18-1,JZ20-2,SZ36-1 and BZ28-1 in the Bohai Bay,it is proposed to adopt 2.8 as the target reliability index of offshore jacket platforms in the Bohai Bay for a 25-year design period.The results provide significant reference for the design of offshore jacket platforms. 相似文献
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Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms.For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms,a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper.The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore plaffoms,it is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagation.And the corrosion and fatigue crack growth rates in the main members and key joints are modeled as random variables.A simulation method of the extreme wave loads which are applied to the structures of offshore platforms is proposed too.Furthermore,the statistics of global base shear capacity and extreme wave loads are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation method.On the basis of the limit state equation of global failure mode,the instantaneous reliability and time dependent reliability assessment methods are both presented in this paper.Finally the instantaueous reliability index and time dependent failure probability of a jacket platform are estimated with different ages in the demonstration example. 相似文献
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The target reliability index has been effectively used as the best solution to deal with the relationship between the structural safety and the optimal economy in any structural design. However, the target reliability index for off-shore jacket platforms based on different sea areas in China has never been calibrated. This paper presents an approach for its calibration, and suggests many kinds of associated load cases. The uncertainties of loads and structural resistance are mainly investigated. The target reliability index for structural components, tubular joints and piles of offshore jacket platforms are discussed respectively in detail. Finally, through the calibrated results from the offshore jacket platforms of QK18-1, JZ20-2, SZ36-1 and BZ28-1 in the Bohai Bay, it is proposed to adopt 2.8 as the target reliability index of offshore jacket platforms in the Bohai Bay for a 25-year design period. The results provide significant reference for the design of offshore jacket platforms. 相似文献
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海洋平台磁流变阻尼器控制技术研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
为了更有效地减小海洋平台动力响应,采用基于模糊控制算法的磁流变阻尼器对海洋平台的振动进行控制.以海洋平台位移响应误差和误差变化为输入变量,以最优控制力为输出变量,优化设计出模糊控制器.考虑实际磁流变阻尼器输出控制力上限存在限制,采用半主动控制算法计算接近于最优控制力的半主动控制力.以一固定式海洋平台为算例研究磁流变阻尼器的振动控制效果及其模糊性,仿真结果表明模糊磁流变控制器对于平台的振动可以实现非常有效的控制,且控制效果对结构阻尼和环境的不确定性具有较好的模糊性. 相似文献
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- The ultimate strength analysis of offshore jacket platforms is a research project which has been developed in recent years. With the rapid development of marine oil industry, the departments of design and IMR (Inspection, Maintenance and Repair) in the offshore engineering have attached great importance to this project. The research procedure applies to both the stress check of new design platforms and the whole safety assessment of existing platforms. In this paper, we combine the pseudo non-linear technique with the linear analysis program and successfully analyze the ultimate strength of the space frame structure subject to the concentrated load and a real jacket platform subject to the dead load and environmental load. 相似文献
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目前我国的海洋工程结构中,导管架式海洋平台占有很大比重,动荷载作用下导管架式海洋平台的振动问题日益突出。随着石油开发向深海进军,平台结构柔性更大,振动问题更为显著,可能对结构、设备及人员造成一定的安全隐患。基于现场监测获得的导管架平台振动响应,结合相关规范给出振动对人体的影响,提出人员感受评价流程。最后,以渤海、南海海域的导管架平台为例,基于现场监测,分析了结构的振动特性及作业人员在相应振动环境下的感受。此方法对导管架平台上部作业人员的工作与安全保障提供了科学依据。 相似文献
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Feedback and Feedforward Optimal Control for Offshore Jacket Platforms 总被引：18，自引：0，他引：18
The optimal control is investigated for linear systems affected by external harmonic disturbance and applied to vibration control systems of offshore steel jacket platforms. The wave-induced force is the dominant load that offshore structures are subjected to, and it can be taken as harmonic excitation for the system. The iineafized Morison equation is employed to estimate the wave loading. The main result concerns the existence and design of a realizable optimal regulator, which is proposed to damp the forced oscillation in an optimal fashion. For demonstration of the effectiveness of the control scheme, the platform performance is investigated for different wave states. The simulations axe based on the tuned mass damper (TMD) and the active mass damper (AMD) control devices. It is demonstrated that the control scheme is useful in reducing the displacement response of jacket-type offshore platforms. 相似文献