共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 156 毫秒
1.
并矢相关谱分析方法在非线性资料分析中的应用 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文利用到率并矢相关谱估计方法,对青岛月平均气温（1896年1月—1992年12月）足赤道局部地区日表层水温（0°±0．5°S,165°±0．5°E;1986年12月6日—1991年11月16日）进行了谱分析,结果表明：青岛气温除具有1年周期的主频振荡和二倍峰频处0．5年周期二阶非线性耦合效应外,还隐含有2年周期的低频耦合振荡及0．4年周期的高频耦合振荡;赤道局部地区日表层水温含有90天,63天,50天,40天和29天等几个主要的低频周期振荡。 相似文献
2.
应用相空间理论对赤道单站日表层水温及青岛月平均气温的９点滑动平均资料进行了分析,结果表明：青岛月平均气温的９点滑动平均的相关维数和嵌入维数分别为５．８３、８,当反厄尔尼诺发生时赤道日ＳＳＴ的相关维和嵌入维数分别为３．９３、１１,当厄尔尼诺发生时其相关维数和嵌入维数分别为４．３７、９．揭示了无论是厄尔尼诺还是反厄尔尼诺发生赤道日ＳＳＴ都具有混沌特征,并且厄尔尼诺发生其内部结构复杂化使得支撑奇怪吸引子的雏数增加,而嵌入维数减少．这种现象是由于表层水温所隐含非线性作用显著增强所导致．根据以上分析结果应用单纯形投影算子（ｓｉｍｐｌｅｘ ｐｒｏｊｅｃｔｉｏｎ ｏｐｅｒａｔｏｒ）预测方法对赤道单站日ＳＳＴ和青岛月平均气温的９点滑动平均资料进行了预测,其前８点最大相对误差分别为０．４２％,７．４％． 相似文献
3.
应用相空间理论对赤道单站日表层水温及青岛月平均气温的９点滑动平均资料进行了分析,结果表明：青岛月平均气温的９点滑动平均的相关维数和嵌入维数分别为５．８３、８,当反厄尔尼诺发生时赤道日ＳＳＴ的相关维和嵌入维数分别为３．９３、１１,当厄尔尼诺发生时其相关维数和嵌入维数分别为４．３７、９。揭示了无论是厄尔尼诺还是反厄尔诺发生赤道日ＳＳＴ都具有混沌特征,并且厄尔尼诺发生其内部结构复杂化使得支撑奇怪吸引子的 相似文献
4.
近百年中国北方沿海地区气温年代际变化及趋势预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《海洋湖沼通报》2015,(3)
以青岛为例,利用近百年的月平均气温资料,通过统计的方法分析了中国北方沿海地区四季气温变化,分析了气温年代际变化与太平洋海温以及太平洋海温年代际振荡(PDO)的关系,着重分析了气温正负位相年北半球平均环流形势和海平面气温。最后利用CMIP5模式数据预测青岛气候未来的变化趋势。结果表明:中国北方近海地区气温呈上升趋势,冬季温度上升幅度最大,夏季升温最小,气温变化与附近海域海温显著相关。各季节气温有年代际和50a变化周期,在年代际变化周期上与PDO周期有较好的同期和滞后相关性,春季和夏季尤为明显。青岛气温正负位相年平均环流形势明显相反,并且与北半球海平面气温异常联系紧密。全球变暖背景下,未来青岛气温仍将持续上升。 相似文献
5.
青岛近百年气温变化特征 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
为深入了解气候变化规律及探讨气候变化原因，根据1900～2002年青岛月平均气温资料，分析了103年以来青岛的气温变化特征。分析结果表明：百年来，青岛平均气温呈明显上升趋势，各季节也是增温趋势，冬季增温最大。最高气温和最低气温也都呈明显上升趋势，其中最低气温的变化幅度大于最高气温的变化幅度。对比2次暖锋期的增温特点发现，20世纪40年代的增温主要是春秋季节的增温造成的，而20世纪90年代以后的增温期冬季成为主导因素，同时都是最低气温贡献大，即增温都是在夜间。日较差则呈下降趋势。青岛的气温在1988年发生了突变。另外，青岛气温还有准20年周期振荡的特征。 相似文献
6.
青岛近百年气温变化的统计分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文依据青岛１８９８－１９９４年９７年的气温资料，经统计分析，得出了青岛气温的阶段和周期及增温速率，探讨了影响变化几个因子的定性关系，并预测未来气温的长期变化趋势。 相似文献
7.
文中论述了在地球赤道上空,地月距离存在4.425a 的变化周期,是由于月近地点在8.85a的周期性运移中,每到黄径0°和180°(赤道线上)在地球自转的背景下使地月距效果相同所致。而每年的地近日点(1月3日或4日)正置圣诞节过后几天,因此,日、月、地相对运动每隔4.425a 在圣诞节前后三者距离总会达到最近。本文计算了1910～1991年圣诞节前后赤道上空地月距离的变化,发现日、月、地最近时与厄尔尼诺、地球自转、海平面变化,地裂缝等自然现象的发生存在着统计上可以认可的相关性。 相似文献
8.
气温的天气和气候记忆性特征分析对于提高气候预测水平具有积极意义。利用济南和青岛1961—2020 年逐日、月和年平均气温资料,运用自相关性函数和标准化频率分布分析了上述时间序列的气温记忆性特征和概率分布特征,并利用结构函数法建立了月、年平均气温距平与日平均气温距平之间的分数阶导数关系。结果表明:(1)济南和青岛的月、年平均气温距平呈现不同程度的记忆性特征,其中年平均气温距平相比于月平均气温距平具有更好的记忆性。(2)济南和青岛的月、年平均气温距平与日平均气温距平之间存在分数阶导数关系,济南和青岛相应的月、年尺度阶数分别为0. 529、0. 665 和0. 553、0. 791,两地的月尺度阶数相近,但青岛略大,青岛的年尺度阶数大于济南,即青岛月和年平均气温距平的记忆性大于济南。(3)济南和青岛的月和年平均气温距平相比于日平均气温距平有不同程度的长尾特征,长尾特征反映了极值温度发生的概率。 相似文献
9.
本文对赤道东太平洋表层水温和热带太平洋月平均海平面变化进行了长时间序列分析,揭示了它们的准周期低频振荡特性,其中20°N～20°S区域月平均海平面低频变化的显着周期在43.5～50.0个月之间,与47.6个月的埃尔尼诺显着周期颇为接近;引入空间谱分析的概念与方法,分析阐明了热带太平洋月平均海平面低频变化遵从下列逆时针循环传播规律:东太平洋(墨西哥近海)→北赤道流区域→西赤道太平洋→北赤道逆流区域→东太平洋,该循环与埃尔尼诺循环过程存在密切的一一对应关系;根据上述分析结果,初步建立了依据典型区域月平均海平面变化预报埃尔尼诺的八元逐步回归模型,预报值与实测值序列的相关系数达0.89. 相似文献
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S. N. Kulichkov N. D. Tsybulskaya I. P. Chunchuzov V. A. Gordin Ph. L. Bykov A. I. Chulichkov V. G. Perepelkin G. A. Bush E. V. Golikova 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2017,53(4):402-412
Internal gravity wave (IGW) data obtained during the passage of atmospheric fronts over the Moscow region in June–July 2015 is analyzed. IGWs were recorded using a group of four microbarographs (developed at the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences) located at distances of 7 to 54 km between them. Regularities of variations in IGW parameters (spatial coherence, characteristic scales, propagation direction, horizontal propagation velocity, and amplitudes) before, during, and after the passage of an atmospheric front over the observation network, when the observation network finds itself inside the cyclone and outside the front, are studied. The results may be useful in studying the relationships between IGW effects in different physical fields at different atmospheric heights. It is shown that, within periods exceeding 30 min, IGWs are coherent between observation points horizontally spaced at distances of about 60 km (coherence coefficient is 0.6–0.9). It is also shown that there is coherence between wave fluctuations in atmospheric pressure and fluctuations in horizontal wind velocity within the height range 60–200 m. A joint analysis of both atmospheric pressure and horizontal wind fluctuations has revealed the presence of characteristic dominant periods, within which cross coherences between fluctuations in atmospheric pressure and wind velocity have local maxima. These periods are within approximate ranges of 20–29, 37–47, 62–72, and 100–110 min. The corresponding (to these dominant periods) phase propagation velocities of IGWs lie within an interval of 15–25 m/s, and the horizontal wavelengths vary from 52 to 99 km within periods of 35 to 110 min, respectively. 相似文献
12.
南海西南季风期NCEP2湍流热通量的质量分析 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3
以5次南海现场观测试验数据(Xisha2002,Xisha2000,Xisha1998,Kexue 1和Shiyan 3)为参照,对NCEP2再分析资料中湍流热通量在南海西南季风期的精度进行了评估.结果表明NCEP2估算的潜热通量的平均值在试验Xisha2000,Xisha1998,Kexue 1和Shiyan 3期间分别高估了6(11%),2(2%),7(7%)和13W/m2(16%),而在Xisha2002试验中低估了10 W/m2(11%).在5个试验中低估的感热通量分别为7(130%),3(64%),7(170%),5(53%)和5 W/m2(72%).NCEP2与5个现场观测试验的时间序列的相关系数均没有达到95%的置信度.模式中湍流热通量损失的误差来源于基本变量和算法,基本变量中以海表温度和海面风速的误差产生的影响最大.应用COARE2.6a算法和NCEP2的基本变量重新计算的湍流热通量更加符合物理意义. 相似文献
13.
D. V. Stepanov N. A. Diansky V. V. Novotryasov 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2014,50(1):73-84
The response of circulation in the Sea of Japan (SJ) to the CORE-calculated real atmospheric forcing for 1958–2006 is reconstructed using the general ocean circulation model developed at the Institute of Computational Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (ICM RAS). Features of the interannual variability of the circulation in the intermediate and deep layers of the central part of SJ are studied from the numerical simulation results. For this, the spatiotemporal variability of the relative vorticity is calculated. Frequency spectra of this variability are calculated at depths of 500 and 800 m and the layer-average between these levels. The spectra have a quasi-discrete structure with maxima in vicinities of 4–5, 7, and 10-year periods. Coincidence is ascertained between frequencies corresponding to these periods and earlier determined frequencies of the inter-annual variability of the temperature field observed in the intermediate layer of the SJ in the second half of the 20th century. 相似文献
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长江河口径流与盐度的谱分析 总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9
根据大通水文站的流量和引水船站的盐度系列资料,应用谱分析方法研究长江口径流、盐度的变化规律及两者的相互关系.分析表明,长江口径流存在4～8a,2～3a,1.5a,1a,30～60d及20d的及化周期;盐度存在5～10a,2～3a,1.5a,1a,0.5a,40～50d,26～30d,14～15d7～8d及3.5d的变化周期.径流和盐度的谱结构在各水文年基本一致,均以1a周期变化占优势,但盐度谱结构在高频部分较径流的谱结构具有更大的振荡.盐度与流量的5～10a,2～3a,1.5a,1a的周期振动上存在高相关.径流对盐度变化的影响主要体现在低频部分.在低频变化中表现为盐度变化滞后于径流变化,在高频带呈同步变化. 相似文献
16.
We evaluate the time-course of deaths and evidence of periods of increased mortality (i.e., critical periods) in laboratory populations of larval flatfish. First, we make the distinction between age-at-death and abundance-at-time data for fish larvae, the latter being typical in studies of natural populations. Next, we describe an experimental investigation of age- and temperature-dependent mortality in larval winter flounder, Pseudopleuronectes americanus. The survivorship curves of these populations differed significantly in both the magnitude and time-course of mortality among the four water temperatures evaluated (7, 10, 13, and 16°C). Mortality was highest in the cooler temperatures and concentrated in the third quarter of larval life, largely concurrent with settlement of surviving members of the cohort. Among the statistical methods for analysing survival data, the proportional-hazards model with time-varying covariates proved best at capturing the patterns of age-specific mortalities. We conclude that fair appraisals of recruitment hypotheses which are predicated on periods of high, age-specific mortality that vary with environmental conditions (e.g., Hjort's critical period hypothesis) will require: (1) data that are based on age, not time; (2) data that are of higher temporal resolution than commonly available at present and (3) analytical methods that are sensitive to irregularities in survivorship curves. We suggest four research approaches for evaluating critical periods in nature. 相似文献
17.
A.E. Aksu 《Marine Geology》1983,53(4):331-348
Calcium-carbonate dissolution has been studied in several grab samples and piston cores from Baffin Bay and Davis Strait ranging in water depth from 200 to 2300 m. The intensity of dissolution was determined from examining: (1) the ratio of arenaceous to calcareous benthonic foraminifera; (2) the ratio of benthonic to planktonic foraminifera; (3) the relationships between the dissolution-susceptible and dissolution-resistant foraminifera; (4) the degree of foraminiferal test fragmentation; and (5) the relationships between plankton tows and the fauna in the surface sediments. All core tops and grab samples from Baffin Bay surface sediments below 600–900 m water depth demonstrated intense dissolution of calcium carbonate. Sediments below 900 m were biogenic carbonate free, indicating 100% foraminiferal loss due to dissolution. Possible causes of substantial undersaturation in calcium carbonate of Baffin Bay Bottom Water are very low temperatures, and higher concentrations of carbon dioxide. All cores also demonstrated intense dissolution during interglacial or interstadial isotope stages 1, 3, 5, 7 and 9. Similarities in planktonic foraminiferal assemblages suggested the presence of similar bottom-water masses during these periods. The preservation state of biogenic carbonate debris in glacial isotope stages 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 is similar to the assemblage found in the water at present. 相似文献
18.
Sequence Stratigraphy and Composition of Late Quaternary Shelf-Margin Deltas,Northern Gulf of Mexico
High-resolution seismic profiles and foundation borings from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico record the physical attributes and depositional histories of several late Quaternary sequences that were deposited by wave-modified, river-dominated shelf margin deltas during successive periods of lowered sea level. Each progressively younger deltaic sequence is thinner and exhibits a systematic decrease in the abundance and concentration of sand, which is attributed to a shift in the axis of trunk streams and greater structural influence through time. Our study shows that (1) contemporaneous structural deformation controlled the thickness of each sequence, the oblique directions of delta progradation, the axes of major fluvial channels, and the geometries of delta lobes at the shelf margin, (2) sedimentation was rapid in response to rapid eustatic fluctuations and structural influence, (3) boundaries of these high-frequency sequences are the correlative conformities of updip fluvial incision, and coincide with downlap surfaces at the shelf margin, (4) the downlap surfaces are not true surfaces, but zones of parallel reflections that become progressively higher and younger in the direction of progradation, (5) the downlap zones are composed of marine muds that do not contain high concentrations of shell debris that would be expected in condensed sections, (6) possible paleosols capping the two oldest sequences are regressive surfaces of subaerial exposure that were preserved during transgressions, and (7) no incised valleys or submarine canyons breach the paleoshelf margin, even though incised drainages were present updip and sea-level curves indicate several periods of rapid fall. (Published in American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin 80: 505 530.) R. A. Morton and J. R. Suter AAPG Bulletin, Vol. 80, No. 4, AAPG 1996, reprinted by permission of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists whose permission is required for future use. 相似文献
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It is known that the fauna of the exposed sandy beaches are primarily controlled by physical variables; but how these variables operate along and across the beach still remains fairly under discussion. In our study, we sampled a range of exposed sandy beaches along the Northwest coast of Spain to determine the relationship between the principal physical variables of the beaches (including beach morphodynamic state), and the macrofaunal community. The fauna of these beaches comprise truly marine species along the intertidal zone as well as semi-terrestrial species in the upper and supratidal environments. These two groups respond in a different manner to the physical environment. The first group is directly controlled by the morphodynamic state of the beach, and variations in the physical environment; the second group is not clearly affected by these physical conditions. In this case, other variables such as food availability and the human uses of the upper limits of the beach seem to be more relevant in explaining the patterns observed in the macrofaunal community. 相似文献