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1.
潮位预测严重影响沿海区域，尤其是近海浅水沿岸地区居民的生产生活和涉海活动。谐波分析是长周期潮位预测的传统方法，但无法预测非周期性气象过程发生时的水位变化。与数据处理方法相结合，人工智能的方法通过拟合输入与输出数据的历史数值关系，能够有效预测高度非线性和非平稳的流模式，因而在时间序列数据预测领域得到了广泛的应用。本文结合自适应模糊推理系统（Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, ANFIS）和小波分解方法，利用水位异常和风切变分量作为输入数据，实现了一种综合的多时效潮位预测方法。文中测试了多种输入变量组合和小波-ANFIS（WANFIS）模型，并与人工神经网络（Artificial Neural Network, ANN）、小波-ANN（WANN）和ANFIS模型进行了预测结果对比。通过不同指数的误差分析来看，相比ANN模型，ANFIS模型能够更准确的预测潮位变化，小波分解对ANFIS预测精度有一定的提高，且模型中水位异常和风切变分量数据的加入比单一的潮位数据输入能取得更好的预测结果。 相似文献
2.
In this paper, we propose a hybrid forecasting model to improve the forecasting accuracy for depth-averaged current velocities (DACVs) of underwater gliders. The hybrid model is based on a discrete wavelet transform (DWT), a deep belief network (DBN), and a least squares support vector machine (LSSVM). The original DACV series are first decomposed into several high- and one low-frequency subseries by DWT. Then, DBN is used for high-frequency component forecasting, and the LSSVM model is adopted for low-frequency subseries. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by two groups of DACV data from sea trials in the South China Sea. Based on four general error criteria, the forecast performance of the proposed model is demonstrated. The comparison models include some well-recognized single models and some related hybrid models. The performance of the proposed model outperformed those of the other methods indicated above. 相似文献
3.
南中国海北部大亚湾水温和赤潮的变化 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
近年来,大亚湾周边的经济和人口快速发展;自1994年大亚湾核电站运转以来,大亚湾的海洋环境和生态状况尤其受到关注。本研究利用实测和卫星遥感数据比较和分析了大亚湾水温和藻华在1983—1993和1994—2004两个时期的变化情况。结果表明:大亚湾核电站运转后(1994—2004)比运转前(1983—1993),年平均表层水温和表层叶绿素 a 含量分别升高1.1oC 和1.9 mg/m3;月平均有害赤潮(HAB)的发生次数也有增加;有害赤潮在 1994 年以前只出现在春季和秋季,而在1994年以后则全年都有发生;表层水温、叶绿素和有害赤潮发生次数都在5月份增加最明显。这些水环境和生态变化与来自大亚湾核电站的热排放以及由于人类活动增加导致的水体富营养化有关。 相似文献
4.
大鹏澳网箱养鱼水体自身污染及富营养化研究 总被引：22，自引：0，他引：22
根据1998年8－10月每月1次对大亚湾大鹏澳网箱养鱼水体26h定点连续观测,采用国内常用的营养状态质量指数（INQ）法,并选用COD、TIN、PO4－P和Chla为评价指标,分析了各网箱水体的富营养化程度,讨论了A网箱INQ值的周日变化;用质量平衡法估算了网箱养鱼水体的氮、磷负荷量。分析结果表明,8－10月份各网箱水体营养况状属中营养水平;INQ值的周日变化中,高峰出现在12：00－18：00,各网箱水体富营养化程度随着放养密度的增加而增大,8、9月份最为明显。网箱养鱼的水体的氮、磷负荷从7月至9月逐渐增大,10月开始下降。 相似文献
5.
Tide gauge observations usually include temperature and density measurements. As an example of such data, a time series of sea surface temperature (SST) from 1855 to 1877 and from 1921 to 1993 at Fort Point, San Francisco, California (the longest U.S. record), and mean air temperature at Mission Dolores (San Francisco), California, from 1936 to 1990, were analyzed. Annual mean Fort Point SST increased at a rate of 0.3°C per century, but the coefficient of determination (r2) was below 0.06; for air temperature the results were 1.6°C per century and r2 = 0.16 respectively. Evidence of El Niño were found in the periodogram of the mean annual SST but not in the air temperature. The annual and semiannual peaks in the monthly time‐series analysis of SST and air temperature dominate their periodograms, and the cross‐correlation between them has r2 = 0.47. Of the 1.3 mmlyr sea level rise over the same time period. 0.003°C/yr accounts for 0.04 mmlyr in thermal expansion if the upper 100 m of the water column were uniformly warmed. 相似文献
6.
南海北部海域叶绿素a浓度时空特征遥感分析 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
利用2007-2010年MODIS的L2级叶绿素a浓度产品作为数据基础, 对叶绿素a浓度年平均和月平均数据进行分级分区处理, 研究南海北部海域叶绿素a浓度时空分布特征及其与海洋环境因素的关系。初步研究结果表明:2007-2010年在南海北部海域叶绿素a浓度的高值区(>5.0 mg/m3)主要分布在广东省沿岸河流的入海口, 分布范围在夏季最大, 在春秋次之, 在冬季最小;叶绿素a浓度的次高值区(1.0～5.0 mg/m3)主要分布在海岸线到50 m等深线之间的海域, 分布范围夏冬较大, 能扩展到50 m等深线附近, 而春秋较小, 会退缩到50 m等深线以内;叶绿素a浓度的中值区(0.3～1.0 mg/m3)主要分布在50 m到100 m等深线之间的海域, 时空变化复杂;叶绿素a浓度的低值区(<0.3 mg/m3)主要分布在100 m等深线以外的海域, 其区域平均值夏季最低, 春秋次之, 冬季最高, 同时该区域叶绿素a浓度在春夏秋三季空间分布较均匀, 而冬季受季风和黑潮入侵影响空间分布较为复杂。南海北部海域海表叶绿素a浓度的时空变化特征与季风、沿岸河流、海流、海表温度等海洋环境因素的变化有关。 相似文献
7.
A recurring problem in wave climate analyses is the need to predict long term events from short duration records. The relative sparsity of the observational record is enhanced by judicious recognition of near-maximum events, in addition to the annual maximum events. This paper pursues the application of triple annual maximum series. Given any extreme value distribution, the theoretical distributions for the annual second largest monthly wave and the annual third largest monthly wave are established. A maximum likelihood method is proposed to fit these simultaneous distributions to the triple annual maximum series. An application of the method to the historical record at the Farallon Is. off San Francisco adopts several of the more common extreme value distributions and demonstrates the potential of triple annual maximum series in enhancing the reliability of distribution fits. Nevertheless, the common practice of extrapolating short duration records to long term events remains precarious. 相似文献
8.
Sediment and water column data from four sites in North, Central and South San Francisco Bays were collected monthly from November 1999 through November 2001 to investigate the seasonal variation of benthic organic matter and chlorophyll in channel sediments, the composition and quality of sediment organic matter (SOM), and the relationship between seasonal patterns in benthic organic matter and patterns in water column chlorophyll. Water column chlorophyll peaked in the spring of 2000 and 2001, characteristic of other studies of San Francisco Bay phytoplankton dynamics, however an unusual chlorophyll peak occurred in fall 2000. Cross-correlation analysis revealed that water column chlorophyll at these four channel sites lead sediment parameters by an average of 2 to 3 months. Sediment organic matter levels in the San Francisco Bay channel showed seasonal cycles that followed patterns of water column production: peaks in water column chlorophyll were followed by later peaks in sediment chlorophyll and organic matter. Cyclical, seasonal variations also occurred in sediment organic matter parameters with sediment total organic carbon (TOC) and total nitrogen (TN) being highest in spring and lowest in winter, and sediment amino acids being highest in spring and summer and lowest in winter. Sediment chlorophyll, total organic carbon, and nitrogen were generally positively correlated with each other. Sediment organic matter levels were lowest in North Bay, intermediate in Central Bay, and highest in South Bay. C:N ratio and the ratio of enzyme hydrolyzable amino acids to TOC (EHAA:TOC) data suggest that SOM quality is more labile in Central and northern South Bay, and more refractory in North Bay and southern South Bay. 相似文献
9.
This paper presents soft computing approach for estimation of missing wave heights at a particular location on a real-time basis using wave heights at other locations. Six such buoy networks are developed in Eastern Gulf of Mexico using soft computing techniques of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Genetic Programming (GP). Wave heights at five stations are used to estimate wave height at the sixth station. Though ANN is now an established tool in time series analysis, use of GP in the field of time series forecasting/analysis particularly in the area of Ocean Engineering is relatively new and needs to be explored further. Both ANN and GP approach perform well in terms of accuracy of estimation as evident from values of various statistical parameters employed. The GP models work better in case of extreme events. Results of both approaches are also compared with the performance of large-scale continuous wave modeling/forecasting system WAVEWATCH III. The models are also applied on real time basis for 3 months in the year 2007. A software is developed using evolved GP codes (C++) as back end with Visual Basic as the Front End tool for real-time application of wave estimation model. 相似文献
10.
11.
文章根据岙山监测浮标周边海域2015年9-12月水质调查资料,采用水质有机污染指数(A)、富营养化指数(E)和营养状态质量指数(NQI)等进行评价。结果表明:岙山监测浮标周边海域水质化学需氧量(COD)、溶解氧(DO)、油类(oils)符合二类海水水质标准,无机磷(DIP)和无机氮(DIN)含量均超过二类海水水质标准,DIP最高为0.048mg/L,DIN最高为0.753mg/L,总磷(TP)各月平均含量范围0.098~0.185mg/L,总氮(TN)各月平均含量范围0.650~0.818mg/L,叶绿素a(Chl a)含量基本稳定,DIN是主要的超标污染因子;富营养化评价结果显示,岙山监测浮标周边海域水质富营养程度严重,E值最高达9.10,NQI值最高为4.58;有机污染评价结果表明,岙山监测浮标周边海域水质总体处于轻度污染状态,A值最小为10月的1.90,最大为12月的2.73;使用A值、E值和NQI值方法同时对岙山监测浮标周边海域进行评价,其结果变化的一致性较好。 相似文献
12.
利用2007年12月至2008年11月间对广西海湾红树林区进行4个季节调查的资料,研究了溶解无机氮的时空变化、组成特征及其与富营养化的关系．结果表明,研究海区溶解无机氮含量较高,年平均质量浓度达0．53mg／dm3,NO3-N含量占66．93％,是N的主要存在形态;廉州湾红树林区质量浓度最高,为1．15mg／dm3;其次为钦州湾,为0．41mg／dm3;铁山港和珍珠湾红树林区较低,均为0．25mg／dm3;陆源输入是影响DIN含量变化的主导控制因素,生物作用次之,化学作用影响较小．相关分析显示：各种形态无机氮（NO3-N、NO2-N、NH4-N）之间的相似性主要出现于径流影响较小的海区和季节,径流影响较大的海区和季节相似性较差,与N的来源途径广而复杂有关;海区水体已呈明显富营养化,但随海区和季节不同变化极大,径流影响最大的廉州湾红树林区富营养化指数（E）高达24．84,已达高富营养化水平,其余海区均在1．52～1．74之间;DIN是该海区富营养化形成的重要影响因子,DIP次之,COD的影响较小;这是红树林区具有较强水体自净能力的重要体现． 相似文献
13.
Several immune parameters were evaluated in two species of mussels (Mytilus californianus and M. galloprovincialis/M. trossulus) as bioindicators of contaminant effects. The mussels were deployed in San Francisco Bay Estuary and a control site at Bodega Marine Laboratory. Assays for phagocytosis and phagocytic index (average number of particles engulfed per hemocyte) were conducted with hemocytes in their own hemolymph-the "Serum" method. The responses were compared with contaminant concentrations in those mussels. For both species, the contaminated South Bay Dumbarton Bridge and Redwood Creek sites had elevated phagocytosis relative to the Bodega control site, indicating contaminant stress. The results also showed that M. californianus had higher percentages of phagocytosis (74%) and a higher phagocytic index (4.6 particles per cell) than those of M. galloprovincialis/M. trossulus (60% phagocytosis and 3.5 particles per cell). As there is a difference in immune response to contaminants, it is suggested that future San Francisco Estuary monitoring should be conducted with endemic M. galloprovincialis/M. trossulus rather than with the currently utilized M. californianus, which is not found in the estuary. 相似文献
14.
利用模糊综合方法评价长江口海水富营养化水平 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
根据2004年4个季度的调查数据,以化学需氧量(COD)、溶解无机氮(DIN)、磷酸盐(PO4-P)、叶绿素a(Chl-a)和溶解氧(DO)作为评价指标,运用模糊综合评价模型对长江口海域海水富营养化水平进行评价。结果表明,约有一半的调查站点呈现富营养化,长江口门及冲淡水区(122.5°E以西)富营养化程度较高,外海(122.5°E以东)富营养化程度较低,富营养程度从外海向近岸增加。富营养化区域全年大部分都分布于盐度小于20的一侧,呈明显的季节分布和区域分布,表明长江口海域的富营养化水平主要受到长江冲淡水的控制。 相似文献
15.
A. V. Polyakov Yu. M. Timofeev Ya. A. Virolainen 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2014,50(3):330-336
The application of the radiative data inversion technique based on artificial neural networks (ANN) for the meteorological satellite sounding of the atmosphere is described. To increase the efficiency of solving inverse problems, the principal component method is used for the temperature and humidity profiles, as well as for IR radiation spectra, which allows the problem dimensionalities to be reduced substantially. Based on numerical experiments, errors of the temperature and humidity sounding are analyzed from the spectra of outgoing IR radiation (that were measured by the IKFS-2 instrument onboard the Meteor Russian satellite) using the iterative physical-mathematical (IPM) algorithm, multiple linear regression (MLR), and ANN-based methods. Appreciable advantages of the ANN-based method are revealed as compared to the MLR method. Therefore, in temperature sounding, the MLR method has a markedly large error at heights of 1–12 km (a difference of up to 1 K), while the IPM algorithm has almost the same error as the ANN method. The humidity determination error is about 10% when the ANN method is used at heights of 0–12 km. The IPM approach yields approximately the same error in the lower troposphere, but as the height increases the advantages of the ANN method grow. 相似文献
16.
Unlike in the open sea, the use of wind information for forecasting waves may encounter more ambiguous uncertainties in the coastal or harbor area due to the influence of complicated geometric configurations. Thus this paper attempts to forecast the waves based on learning the characteristics of observed waves, rather than the use of the wind information. This is reported in this paper by the application of the artificial neural network (ANN), in which the back-propagation algorithm is employed in the learning process for obtaining the desired results. This model evaluated the interconnection weights among multi-stations based on the previous short-term data, from which a time series of waves at a station can be generated for forecasting or data supplement based on using the neighbor stations data. Field data are used for testing the applicability of the ANN model. The results show that the ANN model performs well for both wave forecasting and data supplement when using a short-term observed wave data. 相似文献
17.
Mehmet Özger 《Ocean Engineering》2010,37(16):1443-1451
Wave heights and periods are the significant inputs for coastal and ocean engineering applications. These applications may require to obtain information about the sea conditions in advance. This study aims to propose a forecasting scheme that enables to make forecasts up to 48 h lead time. The combination of wavelet and fuzzy logic approaches was employed as a forecasting methodology. Wavelet technique was used to separate time series into its spectral bands. Subsequently, these spectral bands were estimated individually by fuzzy logic approach. This combination of techniques is called wavelet fuzzy logic (WFL) approach. In addition to WFL method, fuzzy logic (FL), artificial neural networks (ANN), and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) methods were employed to the same data set for comparison purposes. It is seen that WFL outperforms those methods in all cases. The superiority of the WFL in model performances becomes very clear especially in higher lead times such as 48 h. Significant wave height and average wave period series obtained from buoys located off west coast of US were used to train and test the proposed models. 相似文献
18.
浮游植物作为食物链的基础,对海洋生态系统具有重要影响。黄海作为我国重要的渔场,渔业资源面临枯竭的危险,因此对该区浮游植物进行研究具有重要意义。叶绿素a浓度是反映浮游植物生物量的重要指标。利用谷歌地球引擎平台对2002-2018年的MODIS Aqua叶绿素a浓度数据进行处理,并研究其时空分布与变化特征,然后结合区域气候、水文与地理特征以及海洋表面温度、风速、盐度、光合有效辐射和混合层厚度数据分析了其分布与变化的原因。研究发现:受陆源营养物质输入、近岸上升流以及黄海中央冷水团影响,叶绿素a浓度分布呈现由近岸向黄海中部递减特征;在季风、气候、水文的控制下,受风速、海洋表面温度、光合有效辐射、中央冷水团的影响,叶绿素a浓度的最大值出现在4月份,而最小值出现在6、7月份;受苏北沿岸海域海水污染和水体富营养化影响,沿岸海域盐度明显增加,海州湾叶绿素a浓度增速较大;影响黄海叶绿素a浓度变化的环境因子较复杂,除了部分月份存在显著的相关影响因子外,在全年和各季中不存在主导影响因子。 相似文献
19.
莱州湾西部海域枯水期富营养化程度的初步研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据 2004 年 5 月份的调查资料,选择透明度、盐度、活性磷酸盐、溶解无机氮、硅酸盐、叶绿素 a、浮游植物、浮游动物、底栖生物作为评价因子,利用层次分析法确定了各因子的层次关系和权重,建立了以营养盐和富营养化致害因素、直接效应、间接效应三方面指标为基础的综合评价指数模型,对莱州湾海域的营养水平进行了评价.各站点最终评价结果表明:莱州湾海域磷酸盐、无机氮超标严重,整体已表现出富营养化,其中黄河口和小清河口附近富营养化较为明显,这主要是受到陆源排污和海水养殖的影响. 相似文献