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《海洋气象学报》2018,(4)
利用CINRAD/SA雷达探测资料,结合地面实况和探空资料,对7次典型中尺度辐合线触发强对流风暴的特征进行了分析。结果表明:阵风锋、海风锋和冷锋等边界层辐合线在一定条件下雷达低层反射率因子产品上表现为清晰的窄带回波,某些辐合线在反射率因子产品上不能得到任何有用信息,但在低层径向速度上可识别出线性径向速度辐合;识别出窄带回波或清晰的径向辐合线约1 h后,是雷暴首次触发的主要时间段;对于干型强对流风暴产生的阵风锋,其右侧往往是雷暴触发的主要区域,导致风暴右向传播;湿型强对流风暴产生的阵风锋,激发雷暴的方向与雷暴平均移动方向基本相反,导致风暴呈后向传播特征;海风锋向内陆推进速度快的区域是雷暴触发的主要区域,后继雷暴具有两侧传播特征;单纯的线性低层径向速度辐合在合适的环境条件下触发强对流,主要特征是对流风暴移动缓慢,可造成局地灾害性强降雨天气。 相似文献
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渤海一次强阵性雷雨大风过程的诊断分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用中尺度天气预报数值模式、粗网格再分析资料、地面和高空常规观测资料,对2011年8月31日渤海地区一次强阵性雷雨大风天气过程中的大气资料进行了重建.根据该资料,分析了对流有效位能、水汽输送、假相当位温和湿位涡等物理量在这次强对流过程中的演变特征.结果表明,修正的对流有效位能可以提前对强对流不稳定天气做出指示,与850 hPa假相当位温θse=340 K高能暖湿气团所在的位置以及处于△θse＜0的位势不稳定区有明显对应关系.另外,水汽通量的辐合中心与雷雨大风天气发生的区域基本一致.而700hPa等压面上的湿位涡最大负值区的叠加位置也是雷暴发展的另一有利形势,MPV正负交界处带状区域出现了南压和东移,表明湿位涡的发展趋势对冷锋锋面移动的路径、速度有较为明确的指示意义,移动过程中,由于出现降水,同时还伴随了湿位涡负区减弱的特征.上述物理量为雷雨大风预报提供了部分客观判断依据,可作为预报员得出预报结论的辅助手段之一. 相似文献
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利用鲁中地区2001—2016年伴随瞬时风力不低于8级的所有强对流天气个例共106次进行分析,总结其气候特征,并通过箱须图的形式研究了分类强对流天气相关环境参数的分布特征和预报阈值。结果表明:2001—2016年强对流天气分布呈山区多、平原少、中部多、北部和西南部少的特点; 6月和6月中旬是主要月份和旬份;地面辐合线是最主要触发机制类型;雷暴大风型、冰雹雷暴大风型和强降水混合型对应的地面和850 hPa的平均温度露点差,0～1 km和0～3 km垂直风切变,SWEAT指数、LI指数、K指数、风暴相对螺旋度、高度指数等环境参数各有不同的最低阈值;鲁中地区易发生强对流天气的0℃层高度为4. 1 km左右;对于伴随冰雹的强对流天气,其融化层高度比0℃层高度低0. 6 km左右。根据以上环境参数的分布特征、高低空垂直风切变的强弱变化可对3类强对流天气进行一定程度的区分。 相似文献
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针对带乘性噪声的一类非线性系统,给出了1种带单重渐消因子的强跟踪状态滤波算法。该算法将非线性系统线性化后,采用了线性最小方差估计方法来进行状态估计,通过运用正交原理和引入渐消因子,使得滤波效果具有强跟踪的优良性能。该算法扩展了卡尔曼滤波在带乘性噪声非线性系统状态估计中的应用范围。仿真结果表明了该算法的有效性。 相似文献
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《海洋预报》2016,(6)
利用micaps3.2系统强对流实况监测、渤海6部天气雷达、海洋WRF模式等同步资料,对2015年8月31日渤海一次典型"暖式切变线"引发强对流天气过程进行综合分析及可预报性探讨。结果表明:天气尺度系统的有效配置为不同时段的中尺度对流系统发展提供了环流背景条件。08—20时渤海湾一线925—850 h Pa切变线东移增强,08时临近探空K指数35℃、SI指数-1.81℃及CAPE为166 J/kg,垂直风切变16 m/s,导致天津一线的强对流天气发生。20—02时低层925 h Pa"暖式切变线"北抬,20时K指数32℃,SI指数为1.36℃,CAPE达383 J/kg,垂直风切变为19 m/s,对流性不稳定能量增强,在渤海中部的切变线附近诱发多个中γ、β尺度强对流风暴单体,在雷达回波"列车效应"下,造成了秦皇岛近海新一轮强对流天气过程。WRF模式数值模拟与实况对比:对流有效位能(CAPE)08时初始场运行结果误差大于14时;逐小时强对流回波带演变与925 h Pa切变线和CAPE高值区较一致;强垂直运动和边界层水汽辐合触发CAPE的释放;在辽东湾北部Δθse(850—500 h Pa)较弱干冷切入与对流系统的发生、落区有一定对应关系;雷达监测网与WRF物理量叠加是提升海区强对流预警方法的有效途径之一。 相似文献
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《海洋气象学报》2019,(1)
利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和多普勒天气雷达资料,对2016年8月6——8日潍坊一次强对流天气的成因和预报误差进行了分析,结果表明:1) 500 hPa冷涡底部低槽、850 hPa低涡切变线和地面倒槽是主要影响天气系统,数值预报对此次天气过程的影响系统预报偏差大,而预报员对数值预报依赖程度高是此次预报失误的主要原因; 2) 850 hPa以下强的水汽辐合是强降水发生的重要条件,低层辐合和高层辐散配置导致的强垂直上升运动是暴雨产生的动力机制,位势不稳定因中高层的冷空气入侵下沉得以加强; 3)列车效应和强回波维持少动是造成短时强降水的重要回波特征,逆风区的发展和移动对于判断强降水的落区有指示作用,多普勒雷达反演风场中的中尺度辐合线是导致局地强降水发生的直接原因; 4)风廓线雷达水平风场可以连续地反映降水过程中风场垂直结构及其变化,降水发生前探测高度明显升高,中高层冷空气侵入时间与强降水的时段相对应。 相似文献
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鉴于含有加性噪声的指数模型描述了一类重要的非线性随机系统。本文给出这类系统的参数递推辨识算法，克服了迭代算法不能在线运行、需反复矩阵求逆的不足。当系统时变时，还采用了虚拟噪声技术来补偿因参数时变引起的建模误差，从而改善动态预报器的性能。应用这种方法，对油田采油井、注水井的套管损坏情况进行了多步动态预报，其精度令人满意 相似文献
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2020年5月山东共出现13次强对流天气过程,其中8次出现冰雹,共15市（93.8%）81站（65.9%）出现降雹,单站最大降雹次数为4次。10次出现10级以上雷暴大风,5次出现短时强降水,强对流次数之多、范围之广、强度之大、灾害之重为近10年少见。其中,“5 ·17”强对流天气过程最为剧烈,其冰雹范围之广非常罕见,最大冰雹直径为4.5 cm,最大风速达36.6 m ·s-1（12级）,最大雨强达56.9 mm ·h-1。利用欧洲中期天气预报中心（European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF）第五代大气再分析数据集（ECMWF Reanalysis v5,ERA5）和加密自动气象观测站、多普勒天气雷达、闪电定位等资料,对2020年5月山东强对流天气特点及强对流多发的原因进行分析,并以“5 ·17”强对流天气过程为例,对雷达回波特征和风暴内的垂直运动进行剖析。结果表明：（1）副热带高压强度偏强,一方面有利于其外围的西南暖湿气流到达山东,另一方面阻挡西风带系统,导致前倾槽强度偏强,长时间维持在山东上空;500 hPa异常偏强的暖高压脊前西北气流携带的冷空气叠加在850 hPa偏强的暖温度脊上空,造成山东上空长时间为位势不稳定大气层结。（2）在上述有利的天气背景下,山东上空水汽充沛,对流有效位能偏大,冀鲁豫3省交界处气旋式辐合偏强,鲁中地区稳定存在一条辐合线,容易触发产生强对流天气,造成山东5月强对流天气频发。（3）对流风暴高度组织化、区域性的超级单体群以及一条长度超过500 km的强飑线是造成“5 ·17”强对流的直接原因,对流风暴内部的上升速度高达28 m ·s-1。 相似文献
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3‐dimensional variational algorithms are widely used for atmospheric data assimilation at the present time, particularly on the synoptic and global scales. However, mesoscale and convective scale phenomena are considerably more chaotic and intermittent and it is clear that true 4‐dimensional data assimilation algorithms will be required to properly analyze these phenomena. In its most general form, the data assimilation problem can be posed as the minimization of a 4‐dimensional cost function with the forecast model as a weak constraint. This is a much more difficult problem than the widely discussed 4DVAR algorithm where the model is a strong constraint. Bennett and collaborators have considered a method of solution to the weak constraint problem, based on representer theory. However, their method is not suitable for the numerical weather prediction problem, because it does not cycle in time. In this paper, the representer method is modified to permit cycling in time, in a manner which is entirely internally consistent. The method was applied to a simple 1‐dimensional constituent transport problem where the signal was sampled (perfectly and imperfectly) with various sparse observation network configurations. The cycling representer algorithm discussed here successfully extracted the signal from the noisy, sparse observations 相似文献
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In this work the analysis of sloshing of water in rectangular open tanks has been extensively carried out. Two mathematical models are employed, respectively the Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes Equations (RANSE) and the Shallow Water Equations (SWE). The RANSE are solved using a modified form of the well established MAC method (SIMAC) able to treat both the free surface motion and the viscous stresses over the rigid walls accurately. The Shallow Water Equations are solved by means of a simple and powerful algorithm (CE-SE) able to deal with large impacting waves over the tank walls.Successively, in order to validate the mentioned algorithms and for a better understanding of the sloshing phenomenon, experimental tests have been carried out using a 0.5 m breadth rectangular tank in periodic roll motion.It has been shown that RANSE provide more accurate solutions than SWE for small or moderate amplitudes of excitation. In particular in this paper it is proved that the shallow water approximation can be efficiently adopted within liquid depth to tank breadth RATIO = 0.15, when examining the sloshing problem. By increasing the water level inside the tank, results by SWE show large qualitative and quantitative disagreement with experiments. Nevertheless, in the case of large amplitude excitation, when sprays and large breaking waves are expected, SWE provide a fairly good estimate of the sloshing induced waves.Finally a simple baffle configuration inside the tank has been considered. By the analysis of numerical results, it has been observed that the presence of a vertical baffle at the middle of the tank dramatically changes the sloshing response compared to the unbaffled configuration. It produces a jump-like effect, resulting in a weak magnification of the dynamic loads on the vertical walls out of resonance, and a strong reduction of the dynamic loads in the resonance condition. 相似文献
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ICESat-2卫星搭载先进的光子计数式激光雷达ATLAS,使用全新的测量方式获取海量的光子点云数据.光子计数激光点云由于受海洋表面噪声以及水中穿透性较强等因素影响,现有的去噪算法在浅海区域海面去噪上存在一定的局限性.针对上述问题,本文提出了一种基于改进DBSCAN参数的去噪算法,通过利用点云数据集自身分布特性生成候选Eps参数,自动寻找最优Eps参数,改进现有的DBSCAN去噪算法,并在南海两处岛礁区域进行实验验证.实验表明该算法在浅海区域的去噪精度达到98％,优于传统算法的去噪精度,该研究可为ICESat-2海面点的去噪工作提供参考. 相似文献
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《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》2009,34(4):516-525
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Groen J. Beerens S.P. Been R. Doisy Y. Noutary E. 《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》2005,30(2):348-359
For a low-frequency active sonar (LFAS) with a triplet receiver array, it is not clear in advance which signal processing techniques optimize its performance. Here, several advanced beamformers are analyzed theoretically, and the results are compared to experimental data obtained in sea trials. Triplet arrays are single line arrays with three hydrophones on a circular section of the array. The triplet structure provides the ability to solve the notorious port-starboard (PS) ambiguity problem of ordinary single-array receivers. More importantly, the PS rejection can be so strong that it allows to unmask targets in the presence of strong coastal reverberation or traffic noise. The theoretical and experimental performance of triplet array beamformers is determined in terms of two performance indicators: array gain and PS rejection. Results are obtained under several typical acoustic environments: sea noise, flow noise, coastal reverberation, and mixtures of these. A new algorithm for (beam space) adaptive triplet beamforming is implemented and tuned. Its results are compared to those of other triplet beamforming techniques (optimum and cardioid beamforming). These beamformers optimize for only one performance indicator, whereas in theory, the adaptive beamformer gives the best overall performance (in any given environment). The different beamformers are applied to data obtained with an LFAS at sea. Analysis shows that adaptive triplet beamforming outperforms conventional beamforming algorithms. Adaptive triplet beamforming provides strong PS rejection, allowing the unmasking of targets in the presence of strong directional reverberation (e.g., from a coast) and at the same time provides positive array gain in most environments. 相似文献
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渤海AVHRR多通道海冰密集度反演算法试验研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
为了得到更精确的渤海海冰密集度反演参数,采用辽东湾不同类型海冰ASD实测数据,在分析光谱特征的基础上,针对NOAA/AVHRR数据确定出合适海冰密集度反演算法阈值。继而,基于线性光谱混合模型的多通道反演算法进行了一系列算法试验。同时实现了基于LandSat5-TM数据的渤海海冰密集度场反演,并利用该结果与AVHRR单通道和多通道算法得到的海冰密集度反演结果进行比对分析。定量误差分析结果表明,当单通道算法或组合算法中包含1通道时,与Landsat5-TM反演结果的平均误差为正值,包含2通道且不包含1通道时,平均误差为负值;同时使用这两个通道较只包含其一的各种组合算法的平均误差明显偏小;在各种组合算法中,1245四个通道组合反演的海冰密集度结果误差最小,可应用于渤海AVHRR数据海冰密集度反演。 相似文献
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The motion response prediction of offshore structures may be carried out using time domain or frequency domain models or model tests. The frequency domain analysis uses the simplified, linearised form of the motion equations and it is very economical. The time domain analysis, unlike frequency domain models, is adequate to deal with non-linearities such as viscous damping and mooring forces, but it requires sophisticated solution techniques and it is expensive to employ. For moored semisubmersibles time domain techniques must be employed since there are strong nonlinearities in the system due to mooring line stiffness and damping and viscous drag forces. In the first part of this paper a time domain model to predict the dynamic response of a semi-submersibles are developed and the effect of thrusters and mooring line damping are incorporated into the time domain model. In the second part time domain simulations are carried out to find the total extreme motions and mooring forces. 相似文献
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This paper considers the results of numerical experiments involving POLYMODE data assimilation by a barotropic model for synoptic ocean dynamics. The model's response the data assimilation for various space-time discretenesses of assimilation is studied. Results derived from the application of optimal interpolation algorithms and modified optimal filtration algorithms are compared. Qualitative similarity to the calculations carried out through the simulation modelling technique is noted. Optimal assimilation algorithms are determined, depending on the space-time discreteness used. An optimal sampling discreteness for the POLYMODE conditions is suggested.Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin. 相似文献
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随着机器学习算法的不断更新发展,加之其良好的适应性、准确性及鲁棒性,在三维物体识别领域获得了广泛的应用,成为当前点云处理的研究热点。首先,本文对三维物体点云数据识别及机器学习的发展应用进行归纳。然后,从特征选择、特征提取、特征识别三个方面,进行分析总结。最后,指出机器学习在基于点云的三维物体识别领域的应用目前所面临的挑战及进一步研究的方向。 相似文献