共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 140 毫秒
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脐带缆是深海油气开发的关键设备之一,主要由钢管单元、电缆单元、光缆单元、护套及铠装单元组成。脐带缆在全寿命周期经过设计制造、储存、安装、在位运行、修复阶段,其每个阶段的可靠性并不是某个常数,而是随时间变化的函数,因此有必要对脐带缆全寿命周期可靠性的变化进行分析。建立某气田水下脐带缆在储存、安装、在位运行阶段的故障树模型,将其转化为多阶段贝叶斯网络模型进行建模分析,基于OREDA手册数据,假设部件寿命服从指数分布,对脐带缆存储、安装、在位运行阶段的可靠性进行分析,得到不同阶段脐带缆可靠性的变化曲线,并与可靠性框图方法进行对比分析。同时,通过引入条件可靠性对该方法进行了优化,分析脐带缆修复后的可靠性变化,以及对脐带缆关键部件进行重要度分析,针对薄弱环节提出改进措施。可靠性分析可为水下脐带缆的安全运行提供技术支持,同时也为海洋结构与设备的全寿命周期可靠性分析提供了一种方法参考。 相似文献
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遥控水下机器人脐带缆收放绞车设计及牵引力分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
脐带缆收放技术是有缆遥控水下机器人的一项关键技术,该技术直接影响水下机器人载体的收放及作业过程中脐带缆的安全。针对目前水下机器人收放系统中脐带缆收放技术的特点,给出了一种具有自动排缆、低张力缠绕、能够提供大牵引力和安全制动功能的紧凑新式脐带缆绞车方案,并对牵引绞车与储藏绞车之间脐带缆张力与牵引绞车的牵引力进行了理论分析,给出了二者之间的关系函数。 相似文献
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针对改进型前盖开闭装置液压回路的特点,用 T–S 模糊故障树方法对其进行故障分析,通过各部件故障概率或故障程度模糊可能性计算出整个装置的故障程度与出现故障的模糊可能性,对改进型前盖开闭装置液压回路的安全性、可靠性设计提供依据。T–S 模糊故障树分析法在分析过程中不需要精确的底事件的故障概率和大量历史数据,较传统故障树分析法有一定优势,能找出系统的薄弱环节,在装备可靠性设计中具有一定的应用前景。 相似文献
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深海观测系统脐带缆形态分析及计算 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
通过对水下拖曳系统脐带缆索的受力情况、形态进行分析，建立了三维空间缆索的物理模型和数学模型，并在此基础上编制了计算程序，对6000m深海观测系统脐带缆的性状进行了模拟计算，其结果为深拖系统最佳缆长的确定提供了理论依据。 相似文献
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脐带缆用于连接水上浮体和水下生产系统,缆芯由钢管单元、光纤单元和电缆单元等组装而成,缆体外层是由铠装钢丝层螺旋缠绕以及聚合物外护套组装而成,截面结构复杂。利用ANSYS有限元通用软件建立双层铠装脐带缆的三维多层接触摩擦有限元模型,计算其截面拉伸刚度,将拉伸刚度数值模拟值与理论结果进行对比,验证有限元模型的正确性;分析比较铠装层不同缠绕角度、缠绕方式和钢丝直径下脐带缆模型的拉伸刚度。结果表明:铠装钢丝层缠绕方式、缠绕角度、铠装钢丝直径对双层铠装脐带缆模型的拉伸刚度、最大等效应力模拟结果均有影响。 相似文献
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脐带缆是进行水下油气资源开采的关键设备,在深海油气资源的开发过程中起着至关重要的作用。脐带缆是由多种功能单元螺旋缠绕而成的非粘结复合结构,各层构件之间会出现接触摩擦与滑动现象,使脐带缆的截面设计和结构分析变得十分困难。本文结合国内外研究的成果,在对脐带缆结构进行理论分析的基础上,利用ANSYS软件分别对无铠装和有铠装脐带缆进行数值模拟分析,采用梁单元和壳单元模拟管件,并用点-点和点-面接触单元模拟管件之间的相互作用,将数值模拟结果与理论计算结果进行对比,探讨不同的管件缠绕角度、摩擦因数对脐带缆的拉伸和弯曲刚度的影响。分析结果可为工程应用提供参考和借鉴。 相似文献
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脐带缆是连接平台或浮式生产系统与海底油井的控制管缆,缆芯由管单元、光纤单元、电缆单元、以及填充单元组装而成,缆体外层由铠装钢丝螺旋缠绕和聚合物护套组成。基于ANSYS有限元软件,建立无铠装含填充的钢管脐带缆三维有限元模型,在自由端可扭转、不可扭转约束条件下,计算模型的拉伸刚度,将拉伸刚度的数值模拟与理论结果进行对比,验证有限元模型的正确性;分析比较含填充与不含填充两种截面形式脐带缆模型的力学性能,结果表明:填充单元、拉伸率对脐带缆模型的拉伸刚度、最大等效应力模拟结果均有影响。 相似文献
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In this paper, a fuzzy fault tree analysis methodology for spread mooring systems is presented. The methodology combines the effects of operational failures and human errors under fuzzy environment for the spread mooring configurations. In conventional fault tree analysis (FTA), which is an established technique in hazard identification, the ambiguous and imprecise events such as human errors cannot be handled efficiently. In addition to this, the tolerances of the probability values of hazards are not taken into account. Moreover, it is difficult to have an exact estimation of the failure rates of the system components or the probability of the occurrence of undesired events due to the lack of sufficient data. To overcome these disadvantages, a fault tree analysis based on the fuzzy set theory is proposed and applied to the spread mooring system alternatives. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is carried out based on the fuzzy weighted index (FWI) in order to measure the impact of each basic event on the top event. The results show that the fuzzy fault tree risk analysis method (FFTA) is more flexible and adaptive than conventional fault tree analysis for fault diagnosis and hazard estimation of spread mooring systems. 相似文献
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The effectiveness of an Underwater Dry Maintenance Cabin is mainly influenced not only by its capability but also by its reliability and safety. In this study, the reliability and safety of an Underwater Dry Maintenance Cabin are evaluated using fault tree analysis (FTA). The composition, mission characteristics, operational condition, and three kinds of typical faults were identified. The ultimate causes or factors combining to cause or contribute to the top events were determined using FTA. Based on minimum cut sets, the probability of system failure was then calculated through numerical simulations. The results showed that an Underwater Dry Maintenance Cabin is highly reliable and safe. Moreover, using the theory of Criticality Importance, the weak links of the system, which are required in making an effective preventative maintenance strategy, were identified. Finally, suggestions were proposed to improve the reliability of an Underwater Dry Maintenance Cabin. 相似文献
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YANG Zhiyong XIAO Xi Lecturer School of Naval Architecture Ocean Engineering Shanghai Jiaotong University 《中国海洋工程》1998,(2)
Offshore structures will encounter serious environmental load,so it is important to study thestructural system reliability and to evaluate the structural component safety rank.In this paper,thebracnch-and-bound method is adopted to search the main failure path,and the Ditlevsen bound method isused to calculate the system failure probability.The structure is then assessed by the fuzzy comprehensiveassessment method,which evaluates the structural component safety rank.The ultimate equation of the tu-bular cross-section is analyzed on the basis of ultimate stregnth analysis.The influence of effectcoefficients on the structural system failure probability is investigated,and basic results are obtained.Ageneral program for spatial frame structures by means of the above method is developed,and verified bythe numerical examples. 相似文献
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海底管道出露悬空环境风险的定量评价研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
海底管道是海洋油气输送的主要方式,其运行状况直接关系到海上油气田的安全和海洋生态环境的质量。本文先以海底管道出露悬空作为故障树的顶事件,分析出海洋环境中各项基本事件,构建针对海洋环境的海底管道故障树模型;再以灰色模糊识别为理论基础,量化对海底管道安全有影响的海洋环境因素,并以层次分析法对每个风险因素进行分级赋权,确定评价指标范围和权重,进而构建海洋环境条件的海底管道风险评价体系。利用该体系对平湖油气田海底管道4个区段进行环境风险评价,避免了将整段管道一同评价导致的信息均等化,评价结果不能真实反映风险等级高的区段的情况;评价结果与管道2014~2016年现场检测数据对比,两者均显示P2分区中海底管道的风险等级较高,说明了该模型具有一定的合理性和实用性。 相似文献
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1 .ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＳｔｒｏｎｇｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｍａｙｂｅｔｈｅｍａｉｎｄｅｓｔｒｕｃｔｉｖｅｌｏａｄｓｆｏｒｏｆｆｓｈｏｒｅｅｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇｅｓｔａｂｌｉｓｈｍｅｎｔ.Ｔｈｅｓｅａｂｅｄｏｉｌ ｇａｓｐｉｐｅｌｉｎｅｎｅｔｗｏｒｋｉｓｔｈｅｌｉｆｅｌｉｎｅｆｏｒｏｆｆｓｈｏｒｅｏｉｌｆｉｅｌｄｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎａｎｄｓｕｐｐｌｙ .Ｔｈｅｆａｉｌｕｒｅｏｆａｐｉｐｅｌｉｎｅｗｉｌｌｈａｖｅａｄｉｒｅｃｔｅｆｆｅｃｔｏｎｏｉｌｆｉｅｌｄｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎ .Ｔｈｅｃｏｎｓｅｑｕ… 相似文献
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针对半潜式平台安装作业风险评估中存在的风险多态性和模糊性问题，构建了一种多态模糊贝叶斯网络风险分析模型。根据行业规范推荐标准定义语言性评价模糊集，描述根节点的事故状态发生概率，克服了传统方法中确定性概率难以获取的困难。利用相似性聚合法结合置信度指标融合专家意见，引入改进的去模糊化转换方法，提高了专家知识经验转化为定量数据的合理性和可靠性。基于贝叶斯网络的双向推理和敏感性分析技术，实现了工程作业全过程的风险评估。通过对陵水17-2项目半潜平台整体吊装过程进行风险分析，验证该模型的合理性与有效性，为半潜平台安装作业风险管理与防控策略制定提供指导。 相似文献
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防波堤建设费用巨大,且一旦遭到破坏,后果甚为严重,因此,如何准确地计算防波堤的可靠性意义重大.随着人工神经网络理论的快速发展,人工神经网络方法在结构可靠性分析中的应用逐渐得到重视.基于神经网络的Monte Carlo法计算直立式防波堤的可靠性,概率意义明确.以秦皇岛典型直立堤为算例,采用基于神经网络的Monte Carlo法对直立式防波堤进行可靠性分析时,将直立堤滑动破坏和倾覆破坏的极限状态方程中的所有参数均作为变量处理,并将计算结果与Monte Carlo模拟的直接抽样法、重要抽样法以及独立变量JC法的计算结果进行对比.结果表明:基于神经网络的Monte Carlo法和Monte Carlo模拟的直接抽样法、重要抽样法计算结果相近,而比独立变量JC法的计算结果略低. 相似文献
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The load and corrosion caused by the harsh marine environment lead to the severe degradation of offshore equipment and to their compromised security and reliability. In the quantitative risk analysis, the failure models are difficult to establish through traditional statistical methods. Hence, the calculation of the occurrence probability of small sample events is often met with great uncertainty. In this study, the Bayesian statistical method is implemented to analyze the oil and gas leakages of FPSO internal turret, which is a typical small sample risk but could lead to severe losses.According to the corresponding failure mechanism, two Bayesian statistical models using the Weibull distribution and logarithmic normal distribution as the population distribution are established, and the posterior distribution of the corresponding parameters is calculated. The optimal Bayesian statistical model is determined according to the Bayesian information criterion and Akaike criterion. On the basis of the determined optimal model, the corresponding reliability index is solved to provide basic data for the subsequent risk assessments of FPSO systems. 相似文献
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The floating oil storage system has been proposed as a new facility for Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in China. Mooring is one of the key technologies to ensure the safety, reliability, and performance of the oil storage system. This paper describes the concept, analysis, design and reliability of the mooring system. For mooring system design of these oil vessels, analysis is essential of the behavior of the vessel in connection with mooring facilities of nonlinear resilience. A nonlinear mathematical model for analyzing a moored vessel is established and solved. Some results of numerical simulations are presented. Assessment of the safety regarding the mooring system in terms of failure probability is carried out. Another simulation model for calculating the failure probability of the mooring system is proposed. The design parameters that have an influence on the characteristics of the failure probability have been identified. The simulation results show that the mooring system has an annual reliab 相似文献