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1.
The impact of Southern Oscillation on thecyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringthe summer monsoon has been investigated.The analysis of correlation coefficients(CCs) between the frequency of monsoondepressions and the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI) reveals that more depressionsform during July and August of El Niñoyears. Due to this, the seasonal frequencyof monsoon depressions remains little higherduring El Niño epochs even though thecorrelations for June and September are notsignificant. The CCs for July and August aresignificant at the 99% level.The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)is known to affect Indian MonsoonRainfall (IMR) adversely. The enhancedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringJuly and August is an impact of ENSO whichneeds to be examined closely. Increasedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal may bereducing the deficiency in IMR duringEl Niño years by producing more rainfallover the eastern parts of India duringJuly and August. Thus there is a considerablespatial variation in the impact of ENSOon the monsoon rainfall over India and El Niñoneed not necessarily imply a monsoonfailure everywhere in India.The area of formation of monsoon depressionsshifts eastward during El Niño years.Warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomaliesprevail over northwest and adjoiningwestcentral Bay of Bengal during premonsoon andmonsoon seasons of El Niño years.May minus March SOI can provide useful predictionsof monsoon depression frequencyduring July and August.  相似文献   

2.
Temporal distribution of landslides can be verified by means of climatic anomalies linked to the ENSO phenomenon. An increasing number of landslides triggered by rainfall have been recorded during warm episodes (El Niño) in the Cordillera Frontal, and a decreasing number during cold episodes (La Niña), concluding that this geological province is mainly influenced by the Pacific Anticyclone. However, slope instability in the Precordillera, located east of the Cordillera Frontal, seems to be mainly influenced by the Atlantic Anticyclone. Analysis of variance shows that there is no significant difference between landslide records and cold-warm episodes, and a higher number of landslides were recorded in years linked to wet periods than during dry periods. Furthermore, the precipitation threshold value associated with landslide occurrence and antecedent precipitation are analysed.  相似文献   

3.
It has been shown that large-scale weather patterns in both the tropical South Pacific (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, events) and the North Pacific (Pacific-North American, or PNA, patterns) have strong teleconnection effects on the air, ice, and ocean environments of the Bering Sea. This signal apparently comes via the atmosphere and not the ocean. The connection between variability of the Bering Sea and the ENSO and PNA appears to be the winter position of the Aleutian Low. Interannual variability in air temperatures, ice cover, and surface winds in the Bering Sea generally are in phase with each other, whereas sea-surface temperatures (SST) tend to lag these variables by 1–3 months. These Bering Sea time-series are significantly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) time-series (an indicator of ENSO events) when the Bering sea data are lagged behind the SOI for up to 18 months. The correlations suggest that warming in the Bering Sea follows negative anomalies in the SOI (i.e., El Niño events). Cooling in the Bering Sea tends to follow positive anomalies (i.e., precursors of El Niños) in the SOI. Maximal correlations for the PNA also lag the SOI by a mouth or two.Analyses of variance indicate that the SOI can explain 30–40% of the variability in the Bering Sea. Stepwise multiple regressions can explain up to 54% of the variation in air temperatures, up to 39% of the variation in sea ice cover, and up to 46% of the variation in SST in the Bering Sea. PNA and SOI were significant variables only in the equation for air temperatures, indicating a close relationship between them and the atmosphere in the Bering Sea and suggesting that energy is transmitted to the water and ice via the atmosphere. The three variables airtemps, ice, and SST were significant each time they were used as independent variables, indicating a rapid and strong feedback relationship among them.Three ENSO events have occurred since the mid-1970s, but none have been typical. There have been either two positive SOI anomalies preceding an El Niño or there have been none preceding an El Niño. When there has been a positive anomaly, ice cover has been above normal, but neither a positive anomaly nor above-normal ice has occurred in the past two ENSO events. An ice retreat has occurred any time there has been an ENSO event, except in the case of the great El Niño of 1982–1983; the anomalous position of the Aleutian Low at that time explains the lack of response of the ice. Finally, one ice retreat occurred that was unrelated to an ENSO event, but was related to a PNA event.  相似文献   

4.
The interannual variability of flood, bushfire andheatwave fatality data for eastern Australia duringthe period 1876–1991 was analysed with respect to thephase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and the associated values of the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI). Heatwaves were found to be the mostserious peril in terms of the total number offatalities, while floods ranked first in the fatalityevent day statistics. None of the three monthly(absolute value) fatality data sets showed significantcorrelations with the corresponding values of the SOI,while the correlation analysis of annual (July toJune) data led to significant correlation coefficientsof 0.5 for floods and -0.3 for bushfires. AdditionalSOI value-related classification of the standardisedfatality event days into several ENSO categoriesconfirmed the correlation trends by showing anincrease (decrease) in the standardised bushfire(flood) fatality event day frequencies with increasingvalues of the SOI. In contrast to that, thestandardised heatwave fatality data showed aninconclusive distribution pattern, which hints at theinfluence of other possible factors (such as airpollution) on heatwave-related fatality numbers.The results of a risk assessment analysis have shownthat the probability of reaching the mean annualnumber of flood-fatality event days is roughly fourtimes higher during La Niña seasons (80%) thanthe corresponding probability associated with ElNiño periods (18%). The correspondingprobabilities associated with the mean bushfire andheatwave fatality event days displayed a reversedpattern, with the probabilities of El Niño-relatedyears being roughly twice as high as those associatedwith La Niña seasons (70% and 30% for bushfires,and 60% and 25% for heatwaves, respectively).Further probability calculations performed on thetotals of fatalities from all three perils identifiedthe La Niña years as potentially the mostdangerous in terms of suffering fatalities from theseperils. Furthermore, they highlighted the significantdifferences between the means of fatality event daynumbers recorded during years of extreme SOI values(9.8 for La Niña, and 9.1 for El Niño seasons)and those marked by near-zero SOI values (6.6). Themajor reason for the increase in risk associated withextreme ENSO phases was the higher variability ofthese perils during the respective seasons.  相似文献   

5.
The objective of research done in this study is to examine the variability of the length of day (LOD) and to investigate its correlation with ENSO (El Niño-Southern oscillation) episodes. For this purpose, the LOD time series (1962–2015), from the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), is investigated using the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique. The results show that the LOD time series is very complex and is composed of several components: the long-term trend explains 95.97% of the original series, the annual harmonic 1.76% and the semi-annual 1.35%. Considering sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) index over the Niño3, Niño4 and Niño3.4 regions, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the residuals signal, that represents only 0.92% of the initial LOD series, indicate a significant correlation with ENSO occurred during 1965–66, 1972–73, 1982–83 and 1997–98 El Niño events and 1970–71, 1973–74, 1988–89, 2007–08, 2010–11 La Niña ones. This is a pertinent result that suggests that LOD variability is at least partly related to ENSO phenomena.  相似文献   

6.
近几年的一系列分析研究表明，ENSO与异常东亚冬季风之间有相互影响，持续的强（弱）东亚冬季风通过引起赤道西太平洋地区的西（东）风异常对El Niño/La Niña的发生起着重要作用；赤道太平洋次表层海温异常（SOTA）的年际变化（循环）与ENSO发生有密切关系；ENSO的真正源在西太平洋暖池，暖池正（负）SOTA沿赤道温跃层东传到东太平洋，便导致El Niño/La Niña的爆发；在暖池正（负）SOTA沿赤道东传的同时，有负（正）SOTA沿10°N和10°S纬度带向西传播，从而构成SOTA的循环；热带太平洋SOTA循环的驱动者是赤道西太平洋的异常纬向风。进而可以认为：ENSO实质上是主要由异常东亚季风引起的赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温距平的年际循环。  相似文献   

7.
Murty  T. S.  Scott  D.  Baird  W. 《Natural Hazards》2000,21(2-3):131-144
The El Niño of 1997–1998 produced the most intenseimpact on the conterminous U.S.A., generating a seriesof powerful rain and wind storms off the coast ofCalifornia in early February 1998. The 1997–1998 ElNiño also produced severe flooding and extensive mudslides along the west coast of South America andprolonged drought conditions in northeast Brazil. Onthe other (west) side of the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño produced the worst drought in 50 years overIndonesia and helped spread the ongoing forest fireson the island of Borneo to well over one millionacres. In this paper, the smoke and pollution problem overMalaysia will be analyzed in the context of ongoingIndonesian forest fires and the severity of the 1997El Niño – a deadly combination which led to the mosthazardous smoke problem over Malaysia duringAugust–September 1997. The severity of the smokepollution is documented using media reports andavailable API (air pollution index) values overselected cities in Malaysia. The role of the El Niñoand its evolution in enhancing the smoke pollutionover Malaysia is further discussed and suitably documented.Some of the mitigation measures presently beingadopted in Malaysia to combat the smoke pollution arebriefly discussed.  相似文献   

8.
Traditional undergraduate education in earth sciences does not emphasize data acquisition, analysis, or assessment. However, arrival of the information age dictates that earth sciences graduates be imbued with fundamental skills to organize, evaluate and process large data sets. Fortunately, the proliferation of remotely sensed data and its availability via the Internet provides many opportunities for earth science educators to meet these needs. Exercises to introduce students to data analysis have been designed utilizing data from the Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean (TAO) Array and the 1997–1998 El Niño episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The TAO Array is a grid of 69 buoys moored across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (8°N to 8°S and 95°W to 143°E) recording environmental data relevant to El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes. Data from the TAO Array is available in near-real-time (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/realtime.html) or as archived ASCII files (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/data-delivery.html) providing daily (sometimes hourly) records of environmental parameters for each buoy in the grid. Student exercises in data analysis begin with downloading data from buoy locations, parsing the data into spreadsheets, and organizing data by environmental parameter into yearly and monthly data sets. Analyses of reconstructed data include calculations of long-term averages of environmental parameters, seasonal climatologies, monthly climatologies and calculation of long-term, seasonal, and monthly anomalies. Finally, monthly anomaly maps produced by students are loaded sequentially into GIF-animation software to create time-series images illustrating the progress and development of the 1997–1998 El Niño event.  相似文献   

9.
徐静  张鑫 《水文》2012,(4):88-95
ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)事件的发生会影响区域气候变化。通过对青海东部地区5个站点1959~2005年的降水、气温资料、干燥度和海表温度距平(SSTA)与南方涛动指数(SOI)的月序列进行相关性分析和周期性谱分析,探讨了区域气候变化与ENSO事件的关系。结果表明,1959~2005年青海省东部地区气候趋于暖干,并且冬春季变化趋势显著;暖事件的发生对该区域降水、气温及干燥度的变化影响较大,且气温对ENSO事件的响应要大于降水;ENSO事件对该区域的气候变化有两到三个月的影响期,EI Nino事件的发生对当月的影响较大,而La Nina事件的发生对该区域有两到三个月的持续影响期;降水距平及气温距平与ENSO事件存在短期相同的变化趋势,且该地区气候变化受南方涛动影响明显。  相似文献   

10.
Latitudinal movements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), analogous to its present-day seasonal shifts, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-type variability both potentially impacted rainfall changes at the millennial timescale during the last glacial period. In this study we compare tropical Pacific sedimentary records of paleoprecipitation to decipher which climate mechanism was responsible for the past rainfall changes. We find that latitudinal movements of the ITCZ are consistent with the observed rainfall patterns, challenging the ENSO hypothesis for explaining the rapid rainfall changes at low latitudes. The ITCZ-related mechanism appears to reflect large-scale atmospheric rearrangements over the tropical belt, with a pronounced Heinrich-Dansgaard/Oeschger signature. This observation is coherent with the simulated tropical rainfall anomalies induced by a weakening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in modeling experiments.  相似文献   

11.
The gray-scale intensity data of finely laminated sediments from Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos, were analyzed in terms of Hurst exponent and fractal dimension. The sediment record preserved in this volcanic maar provides a continuous history of past El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over the last 6200 years. Accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon data show that sedimentation rate was not constant for whole core. To take into consideration this fact gray-scale intensity data from analyses of X-radiography images of a 4.1 m long core from this basin were divided into Data 1 and Data 2. Data 1 corresponds to the more recent part of stratigraphic sequence, which was deposited since 3000 yr BP; Data 2 is from the earlier part of record between 6200 and 3000 yr BP. A persistent behavior with a Hurst exponent of H = 0.88 and H = 0.8 was found by power spectrum analysis method for Data 1 and Data 2, respectively. The width method of analysis shows that ENSO fluctuation before 3000 yr BP had a persistent behavior on a time-scale up to 26 years, while the more recent El Niño occurrences have a persistent behavior on a time-scale up to 5.6 years.  相似文献   

12.
Estuarine salinity distributions reflect a dynamic balance between the processes that control estuarine circulation. At seasonal and longer time scales, freshwater inputs into estuaries represent the primary control on salinity distribution and estuarine circulation. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions influence seasonal rainfall and stream discharge patterns in the Tampa Bay, Florida region. The resulting variability in freshwater input to Tampa Bay influences its seasonal salinity distribution. During El Niño events, ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) are significantly and inversely correlated with salinity in the bay during winter and spring. These patterns reflect the elevated rainfall over the drainage basin and the resulting elevated stream discharge and runoff, which depress salinity levels. Spatially, the correlations are strongest at the head of the bay, especially in bay sections with long residence times. During La Niña conditions, significant inverse correlations between ENSO SSTAs and salinity occur during spring. Dry conditions and depressed stream discharge characterize La Niña winters and springs, and the higher salinity levels during La Niña springs reflect the lower freshwater input levels.  相似文献   

13.
Multiproxy analysis of three littoral cores from western New Caledonia supports the hypothesis that the main controlling factors of environmental changes are sea-level change, ENSO variability and extra-tropical phenomena, such as the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) marked by a tendency for La Niña-like conditions in the tropical Pacific. The record starts during the late Holocene sea-level rise when the terrestrial vegetation indicated wet and cool conditions. The site was a coastal bay definitely transformed into a freshwater swamp at around 3400 cal yr BP, after the rapid drawdown of sea level to its current level. Sediments and foraminiferal assemblages indicated subsequent episodes of freshwater infillings, emersion or very high-energy conditions, likely related to climatic changes and mostly controlled by ENSO variability. Between 2750 and 2000 cal yr BP, relatively dry and cool climate prevailed, while wetter conditions predominated between ca. 1800 and 900 cal yr BP. The Rhizophoraceae peak between ca. 1080 and 750 cal yr BP, coeval with the MWP, may indicate a global phenomenon. Microcharcoal particles present throughout the record increased after 1500 cal yr BP, suggesting an anthropogenic source. From ca. 750 cal yr BP the appearance of current type of vegetation marks the human impact.  相似文献   

14.
Data on ocean color chlorophylla (Chl a) obtained using Sea-viewing Wide Field of view Sensor (SeaWiFS), sea surface temperature (SST) by Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and sea surface height (SSH) by TOPEX/POSEIDON were analyzed to examine the influence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the physical and biogeochemical processes with special reference to phytoplankton primary production and air-sea fluxes of carbon dioxide in the Arabian Sea. Positive SST anomalies (SSTA) were found in the Arabian Sea (0.4 to 1.8°C) with higher values in the southwestern Arabian Sea that decreased towards north. The SSH anomalies (SSHA) and turbulent kinetic energy anomalies (TKEA) suggest decreased mixing during the IOD compared to the normal period. Chlorophylla displayed significant negative correlations with SSTA and SSHA in the Arabian Sea. Consistently, Chla showed negative anomalies (low Chl a) during the IOD period which could be due to reduced inputs of nutrients. The photic zone integrated primary production decreased by 30% during the IOD period compared to the normal whereas pCO2 levels were higher (by 10–20μatm). However, sea to air fluxes were lower by 10% during the IOD period due to prevailing weaker winds. Primary production seems to be the key process controlling the surface pCO2 levels in the Arabian Sea. In future, the influence of IOD on ecosystem structure, export production and bacterial respiration rates are to be probed throughin situ time-series observations.  相似文献   

15.
Because of its location close to a region of tropical cyclone formation, the city ofCairns is regularly affected by tropical cyclones. Most cyclones occur in the monthsJanuary–March, although some have affected Cairns in December and April. There is a strong year-to-year variation in tropical cyclone numbers in the Cairns region, with twice as many impacts occurring during La Niña conditions than during El Niño. Several case studies are presented of cyclone impacts on Cairns. Rapidly developing cyclones are a particularly difficult forecast problem, as they can strike the city with less than 24 hours warning. Serious inundation from storm surge often occurs some time after landfall at Cairns.  相似文献   

16.
Thunderstorms are of much importance in tropics, as this region is considered to have central role in the convective overturn of the atmosphere and play an important role in rainfall activity. It is well known that El Niño and La Niña are well associated with significant climate anomalies at many places around the globe. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to analyze variability in thunderstorm days and rainfall activity over Indian region and its association with El Niño and La Niña using data of thunderstorm day’s for 64 stations well distributed all over India for the period 1981–2005 (25 years). It is seen that thunderstorm activity is higher and much variable during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon (JJAS) than the rest of the year. Positive correlation coefficients (CCs) are seen between thunderstorms and rainfall except for the month of June during which the onset of the southwest monsoon sets over the country. CCs during winter months are highly correlated. Composite anomalies in thunderstorms during El Niño and La Niña years suggest that ENSO conditions altered the patterns of thunderstorm activity over the country. Positive anomalies are seen during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon months (JAS) during La Niña years. Opposite features are seen in southwest monsoon during El Niño periods, but El Niño favors thunderstorm activity during pre-monsoon months. There is a clear contrast between the role of ENSO during southwest monsoon and post-monsoon on thunderstorm activity over the country. Time series of thunderstorms and precipitation show strong association with similarities in their year-to-year variation over the country.  相似文献   

17.
Time-series analyses of the Peruvian-Chilean Eastern Pacific Fisheries output are presented. The paper discusses how human action and adverse environmental conditions have affected regional productivity levels and fish stock. It is shown that overfishing during critical environmental periods is the likely cause for fluctuations in regional output and the decline of Peru's fishing (anchovy) industry, in opposition to the theory that holds that stock depletion is caused solely by ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) events. Policy implications are drawn from empirical findings, tressing the need for strict resource management and future restrictions on fish captures when ENSO events are highly probable.  相似文献   

18.
We present the first near millennium-length, annually resolved stable isotope record from bristlecone pines (Pinus longaeva, D.K Bailey). The carbon isotope ratios from the cellulose of seven trees from the White Mountains of California, corrected for anthropogenic changes in atmospheric chemistry, are used to reconstruct growing season (June through August) precipitation back to AD 1085. Extremely negative isotope results are strongly correlated with proposed severest El Niño events over the last 500 yr, and similar values in the first half of the millennium are used to reconstruct a further 13 strong El Niño events, concentrated in the 12th Century and the mid 13th and 14th Centuries. Ring-width chronologies from adjacent sites in the White Mountains demonstrate a high degree of decadal covariance with the δ13C series, although there are several periods of notable divergence.  相似文献   

19.
Fauchereau  N.  Trzaska  S.  Rouault  M.  Richard  Y. 《Natural Hazards》2003,29(2):139-154
Rainfall variability and changes in Southern Africa over the 20th century areexamined and their potential links to the global warming discussed. After a shortreview of the main conclusions of various experiments with Global AtmosphericModels (GCM) forced by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases for SouthernAfrica, a study of various datasets documents the observed changes in rainfall featuresat both daily and seasonal time steps through the last century. Investigations of dailyrainfall parameters are so far limited to South Africa. They show that some regionshave experienced a shift toward more extreme rainfall events in recent decades.Investigations of cumulative rainfall anomalies over the summer season do notshow any trend to drier or moister conditions during the century. However, closeexamination reveals that rainfall variability in Southern Africa has experiencedsignificant modifications, especially in the recent decades. Interannual variabilityhas increased since the late 1960s. In particular, droughts became more intense andwidespread. More significantly, teleconnection patterns associated with SouthernAfrican rainfall variability changed from regional before the 70s to near global after,and an increased statistical association to the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is observed. Numerical experiments with a French GCM indicate that these changes in teleconnections could be related to long-term variations in the Sea-Surface-Temperature background, which are part of the observed global warming signal.  相似文献   

20.
ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant impact over the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. ENSO-induced negative (positive) NAO-like response and associated changes over Southern Europe and North Africa get significantly strong following increased intensity of El Niño (La Niña) in the northern (southern) hemisphere in the boreal winter (summer) season. We further find that ENSO magnitude significantly impacts Hadley and Walker circulations. The positive phase of ENSO (El Niño) overall strengthens Hadley cell and a reverse is true for the La Niña phase. ENSO-induced strengthening and weakening of Hadley cell induces significant impact over South Asian and African ITCZ convective regions through modification of ITCZ/monsoon circulation system.  相似文献   

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