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1.
The runoff in alpine river basins where the runoff is formed in nearby mountainous areas is mainly affected by temperature and precipitation.Based on observed annual mean temperature,annual precipitation,and runoff time-series datasets during 1958–2012 within the Kaidu River Basin,the synchronism of runoff response to climate change was analyzed and identified by applying several classic methods,including standardization methods,Kendall's W test,the sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test,wavelet power spectrum analysis,and the rescaled range(R/S) approach.The concordance of the nonlinear trend variations of the annual mean temperature,annual precipitation,and runoff was tested significantly at the 0.05 level by Kendall's W method.The sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test revealed that abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with those of annual mean temperature.The periodic characteristics of annual runoff were mainly consistent with annual precipitation,having synchronous 3-year significant periods and the same 6-year,10-year,and 38-year quasi-periodicities.While the periodic characteristics of annual runoff in the Kaidu River Basin tracked well with those of annual precipitation,the abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with the annual mean temperature,which directly drives glacier-and snow-melt processes.R/S analysis indicated that the annual mean temperature,annual precipitation,and runoff will continue to increase and remain synchronously persistent in the future.This work can improve the understanding of runoff response to regional climate change to provide a viable reference in the management of water resources in the Kaidu River Basin,a regional sustainable socio-economic development. 相似文献
2.
三江源地区气候变化及其对径流的驱动分析(英文) 总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3
Based on the precipitation and temperature data of the 12 meteorological stations in the "Three-River Headwaters" region and the observed runoff data of Zhimenda in the headwater sub-region of the Yangtze River, Tangnaihai in the headwater sub-region of the Yellow River and Changdu in the headwater sub-region of the Lancang River during the period 1965-2004, this paper analyses the trends of precipitation, temperature, runoff depth and carries out significance tests by means of Mann-Kendall-Sneyers sequential trend test. Makkink model is applied to calculate the potential evaporation. The runoff model driven by precipitation and potential evaporation is developed and the influence on runoff by climate change is simulated under different scenarios. Results show that during the period 1965-2004 the temperature of the "Three-River Headwaters" region is increasing, the runoff of the three hydrological stations is decreasing and both of them had abrupt changes in 1994, while no significant trend changes happen to the precipitation. The runoff model suggests that the precipitation has a positive effect on the runoff depth, while the potential evaporation plays a negative role. The influence of the potential evaporation on the runoff depth of the Lancang River is found to be the significant in the three rivers; and that of the Yellow River is the least. The result of the scenarios analysis indicates that although the precipitation and the potential evaporation have positive and negative effects on runoff relatively, fluctuated characteristics of individual effect on the runoff depth in specific situations are represented. 相似文献
3.
Theoretical difficulties for mapping and for estimating river regime characteristics in a large-scale basin remain because of the nature of the variable under study: river flows are related to a specific area, i.e. the drainage basin, and are hierarchically organized in space through the river network with upstream-downstream dependencies. Another limitation is there are not enough gauge stations in developing countries. This presentation aims at de-veloping the hydro-stochastic approach for producing choropleth maps of average annual runoff and computing mean discharge along the main river network for a large-scale basin. The approach applied to mean annual runoff is based on geostatistical interpolation proce-dures coupled with water balance and data uncertainty analyses. It is proved by an applica-tion in the upstream at Bengbu in the Huaihe River Basin, a typical large-scale basin in China. Hydro-stochasitic approach in a first step interpolates to a regular grid net and in a second step the grid values are integrated along rivers. The interpolation scheme includes a con-straint to be able to account for the lateral water balance along the rivers. Grid runoff map with 10 km × 10 km resolution and the discharge map along the river with the 1 km basic length unit are the main results in this study. This kind of statistic approach can be widely used be-cause it avoids the complexity of hydrological models and does not depend on the meteoro-logical data. 相似文献
4.
Coupled hydrological and atmospheric modeling is an efficient method for snowmelt runoff forecast in large basins. We use short-range precipitation forecasts of mesoscale atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model combining them with ground-based and satellite observations for modeling snow accumulation and snowmelt processes in the Votkinsk reservoir basin(184,319 km2). The method is tested during three winter seasons(2012–2015). The MODIS-based vegetation map and leaf area index data are used to calculate the snowmelt intensity and snow evaporation in the studied basin. The GIS-based snow accumulation and snowmelt modeling provides a reliable and highly detailed spatial distribution for snow water equivalent(SWE) and snow-covered areas(SCA). The modelling results are validated by comparing actual and estimated SWE and SCA data. The actual SCA results are derived from MODIS satellite data. The algorithm for assessing the SCA by MODIS data(ATBD-MOD 10) has been adapted to a forest zone. In general, the proposed method provides satisfactory results for maximum SWE calculations. The calculation accuracy is slightly degraded during snowmelt periods. The SCA data is simulated with a higher reliability than the SWE data. The differences between the simulated and actual SWE may be explained by the overestimation of the WRF-simulated total precipitation and the unrepresentativeness of the SWE measurements(snow survey). 相似文献
5.
1956-2003年拉萨河流域径流变化趋势 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations （Lhasa and Tanggya） and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations （Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya）. The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows： （1） The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points （around 1970 and the early 1980s）, after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year （November to April） and some other months （May, July and September）. （2） The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season. 相似文献
6.
The hydrological characteristics of the Heihe River Basin in the arid inland area of northwest China were investigated.The spatial distribution of annual precipitation in the basin indicates that it decreases from east to west and from south to north,and increases with elevation by a gradient of 24.4 mm per hundred meters below 2,810 m a.s.l.,but decreases with elevation by that of 37.0 mm per hundred meters above 2,810 m a.s.l.For the last 50 years,the mountain runoff of the ba-sin has a tendency of increase.Except in the mountain area,the aridity is very high in the basin,and the aridity index ranges from 1.6 to 7.0 at the piedmont,to 9.0～20.0 in the midstream area and up to 40.0 in the downstream Ejin region.It is estimated for the last 50 years that a 1oC increment of annual temperature causes a 21.5 mm increase of evaporation in the mountain area,and the equivalent reduction of mountain runoff is 0.215×109 m3/yr at the Yingluoxia Hydrometric Sta-tion.The estimation shows also that a 1oC increment of annual temperature causes 1,842 mm increase of farmland evapotranspiration in the midstream area,an equivalent of 0.298×109 m3/yr more water consumption.The anthropogenic influence on the hydrological processes and water resources is then discussed. 相似文献
7.
基于GIS的中国人口重心的密度分级与曲线特征 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
In this paper, with the spatial analysis functions in ArcGIS and the county-level census data of 2000 in China, the population density map was divided and shown by classes, meanwhile, the map system of population distribution and a curve of population centers were formed; in accordance with the geographical proximity principle, the classes of population densities were reclassified and a population density map was obtained which had the spatial clustering characteristic. The multi-layer superposition based on the population density classification shows that the population densities become denser from the Northwest to the Southeast; the multi-layer clustering phenomenon of the Chinese population distribution is obvious, the populations have a water-based characteristic gathering towards the rivers and coastlines. The curve of population centers shows the population densities transit from the high density region to the low one on the whole, while in low-density areas there are relatively dense areas, and in high-density areas there are relatively sparse areas. The reclassification research on the population density map based on the curve of population centers shows that the Chinese population densities can be divided into 9 classes, hereby, the geographical distribution of Chinese population can be divided into 9 type regions: the concentration core zone, high concentration zone, moderate concentration zone, low concentration zone, general transitional zone, relatively sparse area, absolute sparse area, extreme sparse area, and basic no-man's land. More than 3/4 of the population of China is concentrated in less than 1/5 of the land area, and more than half of the land area is inhabited by less than 2% of the population, the result reveals a better space law of China’s population distribution. 相似文献
8.
西北地区山区融雪期气候变化对径流量的影响(英文) 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Water resources in the arid land of Northwest China mainly derive from snow and glacier melt water in mountainous areas. So the study on onset, cessation, length, tempera-ture and precipitation of snowmelt period is of great significance for allocating limited water resources reasonably and taking scientific water resources management measures. Using daily mean temperature and precipitation from 8 mountainous weather stations over the pe-riod 1960?2010 in the arid land of Northwest China, this paper analyzes climate change of snowmelt period and its spatial variations and explores the sensitivity of runoff to length, temperature and precipitation of snowmelt period. The results show that mean onset of snowmelt period has shifted 15.33 days earlier while mean ending date has moved 9.19 days later. Onset of snowmelt period in southern Tianshan Mountains moved 20.01 days earlier while that in northern Qilian Mountains moved only 10.16 days earlier. Mean precipitation and air temperature increased by 47.3 mm and 0.857℃ in the mountainous areas of Northwest China, respectively. The precipitation of snowmelt period increased the fastest, which is ob-served in southern Tianshan Mountains, up to 65 mm, and the precipitation and temperature in northern Kunlun Mountains increased the slowest, an increase of 25 mm and 0.617℃, respectively, while the temperature in northern Qilian Mountains increased the fastest, in-creasing by 1.05℃. The annual runoff is also sensitive to the variations of precipitation and temperature of snowmelt period, because variation of precipitation induces annual runoff change by 7.69% while change of snowmelt period temperature results in annual runoff change by 14.15%. 相似文献
9.
Possible change on the runoff in the upper Yellow River basin under global climate change 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
YongChao Lan Jun Wen JunJie Chang YeXin Xu YongPing Shen XingLin Hu JinQi Lu 《寒旱区科学》2009,1(2):0157-0164
In this study,the characteristics and changing trends of temperature,precipitation,and runoff in the upper Yellow River basin up Tangnag station are analyzed by using hydrological and meteorological data in the past 50 years from observation stations in the basin.Further,in this study,the evolving trend of runoff in the future decades is forecasted in the basin based on the method of suppositional climate scenes combination.The results indicate temperature variation in the basin has an evident positive relation with global warming,and the precipitation variations are quite complicated in the basin because of differences of located geographic positions during the past 50 years.Runoff in the basin has been decreasing continually since the end of the 1980s because the mean temperature in the basin has been rising and precipitation in the main areas of runoff formation in the basin has been decreasing.Runoff will largely decrease if precipitation decreases and temperature rises continuously,whereas runoff will increase if temperature is invariable and precipitation increases largely;the increase magnitude of runoff may be more than that of precipitation because of the synchronously increasing supply of meltwater from snow,glacier,and frozen soils in future several decades. 相似文献
10.
Three types of rainfall (storm, moderate and slight rainfall) in the Beijing area were simulated by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF3.2) model coupled with Milbrandt-two-moment cloud microphysics scheme, to explore the effect of aerosols on clouds and precipitation under continental and maritime aerosol scenarios. Results indicate that an increase of aerosols has various effects on clouds and precipitation. (1) The amount of surface precipitation is obviously affected. With an increase of aerosol concentration, the 48-hr total precipitation of storm and moderate rainfall decreased by 23% and 16.6%, respectively, and the 24-hr total precipitation of slight rainfall decreased by 14.0%. (2) The distribution of surface precipitation is also clearly affected. The average precipitation for a rain storm increases in most parts of western Beijing and decreases by more than 20 mm in most parts of eastern Beijing with increasing aerosol concentration. The average precipitation of moderate rainfall decreases by 0.1–5 mm in most parts of the Beijing area. The effect of increased aerosol concentration is weak for slight rainfall distribution in the study area. (3) With an increase of aerosol concentration, a narrower width and lower precipitation peak value are found in the storm rainfall, and its duration is prolonged for the high aerosol concentration. An earlier precipitation termination of moderate rainfall is found with increasing aerosol concentration. (4) The upper-air hydrometeors vary with aerosol concentration. For storm and moderate rainfall, significantly higher cloud water concentration and lower rain water were found under the continental aerosol scenario. 相似文献
11.
The non-point output of different agriculture landuse types in Zhexi hydraulic region of Taihu Basin
This paper takes Zhexi hydraulic region in Taihu Basin as a study area. On the basis of hydraulic analysis function of Arcgis8.3, the drainages were delineated by selecting the monitoring points and discharge stations as outlets. The landuse map were finished by denoting the TM/ETM image. The precipitation map was finished by spatial interpolation according to the rainfall monitoring records. Overlaying the drainage boundary, landuse map and precipitation map, the rainfall, different landuse type area, and runoff pollution concentration and runoff were calculated. Based on these data in different sub-watersheds, by Origin7.0 regression tool, an equation is established to predict runoff using the relationships between runoff, precipitation depth and land use patterns in each of the sub-watersheds. Selecting the sub-watershed which is mainly composed of forest landuse type, the mean runoff concentration (MRC) from sub-watershed has been estimated. The mean runoff concentration of farmland has been estimated by the same methods after the contribution of forest landuse type was removed. The results are: for the forest landuse type, the mean runoff concentrations of COD, BOD, Total N and Total P are 2.95 mg/l, 1.080 mg/l, 0.715 mg/l, and 0.039 mg/l, respectively; for the farmland, the mean runoff concentrations of COD, BOD, Total N and Total P are 5.721 mg/l, 3.097 mg/l, 2.092 mg/l, and 0.166 mg/l, respectively. By using these results, the agriculture non-point pollution loads have been assessed. The loads of COD, BOD, Total N and Total P in Zhexi region are 14,631.69 t/a, 6401.93 t/a, 4281.753 t/a and 287.67 t/a, respectively. 相似文献
12.
太湖流域浙西区不同土地类型的面源污染产出 总被引：34，自引：1，他引：33
以太湖流域浙西水利分区为研究区,采用Arcgis的水文分析模块,对浙西区进行流域划分,选取以单一农业用地为主的子流域,利用GIS叠加分析方法,获取各子流域的降水、径流深度、土地利用结构信息,分析研究区主要土地利用类型与径流量的统计关系,建立该区年尺度的径流估算模型。基于林地、耕地为主的子流域水质监测数据,结合径流估算模型,分析占该区90%土地利用面积的林地、耕地与径流污染物浓度的定量关系,研究结果显示,该研究区以林地为主的流域径流各水环境指标为：COD浓度为2.95 mg/l,BOD浓度为1.080 mg/l,总氮浓度为0.715 mg/l,总磷浓度为0.039 mg/l;耕地为主的流域径流水环境指标为：COD浓度为5.721mg/l,BOD浓度为3.097 mg/l,总氮浓度为2.092 mg/l,总磷浓度为0.166 mg/l。这一研究结果适合应用于太湖流域上游山区、丘陵地区年尺度面源污染估算。 相似文献
13.
自黄土高原退耕还林还草政策实施以来,在水源涵养功能明显提升的同时径流显著减少,导致该区域出现了水源涵养服务与水供给服务间的权衡问题。为探究径流减少的原因,进而为不同空间尺度的生态系统服务权衡提供支撑,本文分析了陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区2006-2011年降水和植被变化对径流影响的尺度效应。结果表明：研究区域内汛期降水量呈现出由东南向西北逐渐减少的空间分异特征;在研究时段内,植被恢复效果明显,近8成地区植被覆盖状况得到了改善,尤其是植被覆盖较差的地区恢复效果更为显著;在各子流域中,降水与径流间呈现出显著的正相关性,二者的相关系数随着子流域面积的增加而增大,表现出明显的尺度效应。随着子流域面积增大,15°以上土地比例增加,陡坡植被覆盖类型趋于均一化,具有显著截流功能的林地呈现减少趋势是尺度效应形成的主要原因。NDVI与径流的相关性不显著,二者的相关系数随着子流域面积变化的规律性不强,植被对径流影响没有明显的尺度效应。 相似文献
14.
流域非点源污染模拟研究--以滇池流域为例 总被引：18，自引：2，他引：16
流域的水质管理是一个多步骤的过程,数学模型以其定量计算和动态操作在流域管理中起着重要作用。本文利用美国EPA开发的HSPF(HydrologicalSimulationProgramFortran)模型,选取云南滇池流域作为案例,给出非点源污染模型流域水文水质的模拟过程。首先在子流域划分的基础上,完成数据库的建立。参数估值主要依据流域性质、先前经验值、其他模拟研究和文献中的取值。参数优化、模型校正和模拟验证是采用流域河流出口流量和污染物浓度值完成。最后用校正后的模型计算了滇池流域河流入湖流量及各子流域污染总负荷量与非点源污染负荷量。 相似文献
15.
洪河国家级自然保护区补水水质的评价研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
简要介绍了洪河国家级自然保护区补水方案的工艺流程,农田地表径流是该方案的补水水源。分别采集洪河国家级自然保护区核心区和浓鸭截洪总干(补水水源点)同一地点地表水样并进行了分析测试,核心区水质监测数据结果表明:①该保护区核心区水域不存在工业废水特征污染物;②水质与水位和水流关系密切;③水质与湿地植被所处的生长季节有关;④水体中COD和BOD5值分别在37.73～63.08mg/L和15.2～28.70mg/L,不属于外源人为污染引起,应是沼泽水体的背景值的真实反映;⑤沼泽水体的TN和TP较高,可能与湿地生物地球化学元素循环的内在规律有关,不是农田地表径流污染进入引起的。浓鸭截洪总干处水质监测数据显示:①水质表征出明显的农田径流特性;②水质总体上较好,这可能与浓鸭截洪总干对农田地表径流有较好的净化能力有关。通过比较分析洪河保护区核心区水质和浓鸭截洪总干水质表明:补水水源水质整体上好于该保护区核心区水质。基于保护区核心区水质特征来确定补水水源水质在工程设计上具有一定的指导意义和实践价值。基于当前的监测数据,初步认为现有补水水质符合洪河保护区水质要求。建议今后在洪河国家级自然保护区和浓鸭截洪总干开展有关农药残留动态实验,并结合水域生物多样性调查,为流域农业产业结构和农药的安全使用提出政策性建议。研究认为在三江平原通过生态水利工程蓄积农田地表径流,并采用湿地生态氧化塘处理系统净化水质,可以作为退化湿地的补水水源。 相似文献
16.
陕西大理河流域土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应 总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2
近年来,土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究已成为国际的前沿和重点。在大理河流域,LUCC(包括水土保持措施)对水循环和水量平衡产生了深远影响,该流域LUCC水文效应的研究势在必行。根据研究区1990年代三期土地利用数据分析了LUCC的时空变化特征,采用特征变量时间序列法及降水-径流模型对LUCC水文效应进行了研究。结果表明:流域土地利用类型以耕地和草地为主,近10年来,耕地和草地面积有所减少,而林地和建设用地面积持续增加;流域年径流和月径流演化过程均表现出明显的下降趋势;LUCC及水土保持具有减少流域年径流、汛期流量以及增加枯季流量的作用,相对于降水因素,人类活动对流域水文的作用占主导地位;在1990~2000年期间,主要由LUCC引起的年均径流减少量达2616.6×104 m3,占该期间实测减水总量的62.19%。 相似文献
17.
18.
气候和土地利用变化对径流变化影响研究——以伊洛河流域伊河上游地区为例 总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2
在实际调查基础上,利用遥感和地理信息系统技术,分析伊洛河流域伊河上游地区气候和土地利用变化对径流变化的影响。结果显示,在研究区域中,林地面积最大,1987-2008年,林地、库塘和建设用地面积持续增加,草地、河流和未利用地面积持续减少,耕地面积则先增加后减少。20世纪80年代以来,土地利用变化在不同阶段都使得年平均径流量减小;80-90年代,气候变化使得年平均径流量减小,而90年代到2000年以后,气候变化使得年平均径流量增加,这与90年代年平均降水量减少,而2000年以后年平均降水量增加密切相关。 相似文献
19.
澜沧江流域退耕还林农户土地利用变化及其原因分析——以云县晓街乡为例 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
从退耕还林工程的实施将改变云南省生态环境的大背景出发,采用对比研究的方法对澜沧江流域退耕还林前后农户对土地资源的利用方式、利用强度及空间分布3个方面进行定性研究,探讨了退耕还林工程对项目区土地利用的影响,并得出如下结论：（1）退耕后农户对土地资源的利用变得更为复杂,主要表现在：土地利用面积增减、利用类型变更、空间分布变化及土地利用组合方式变化;（2）退耕还林工程如果只是将当地原有的生产、生活体系打破而又没有建立起合适的替代体系的话,其综合效益的发挥将受到严重影响。建议提高农户对土地资源的利用效率是当前切实发挥和巩固退耕还林工程综合效益的关键;减少农户生产、生活对土地的依赖才是长远之策。 相似文献
20.
城市化对西安市降水及河流水文过程的影响 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
为探究城市化对西安市降水机制及城市河流灞河下游水文过程的影响,根据西安市及灞河1970-2015年水文气象资料以及由遥感影像解译得到的土地利用数据,在分析西安市降水、土地利用特征及灞河下游降水、径流变化特征的基础上,运用水文特征参数时间序列法分析城市化对西安市降水的影响以及灞河水文过程的影响。结果表明：1970-2015灞河降水量呈不显著下降趋势,而径流量呈显著下降趋势;西安市土地利用程度较高,土地利用变化表现为耕地及林地向建设用地转移;受城市化影响,西安市降水机制发生了改变,强降水频次呈增加趋势,且城区增幅大于郊区;降水年内分配不均匀,越来越集中于夏季,增加了城市内涝的威胁;城市化对灞河下游降水-径流关系产生了影响,降水对径流的影响呈减弱趋势,而城市化对径流的影响呈增强趋势;此外,受城市化影响,灞河下游径流量年内波动趋缓,特别是汛期;城市化是影响径流变化的主要因素（61.5%）,降水变化是影响径流变化的次要因素（38.5%）;灞河下游径流量的减流主要是水利工程的作用及过量开采傍河地下水。 相似文献