Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years     

Raphael Neukom  David J. Nash  Georgina H. Endfield  Stefan W. Grab  Craig A. Grove  Clare Kelso  Coleen H. Vogel  Jens Zinke 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(9-10):2713-2726

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.  相似文献   

Comparison of seismic activity for Llaima and Villarrica volcanoes prior to and after the Maule 2010 earthquake     

Cindy Mora-Stock  Martin Thorwart  Tina Wunderlich  Stefan Bredemeyer  Thor H. Hansteen  Wolfgang Rabbel 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,103(7):2015-2028

Llaima and Villarrica are two of the most active volcanoes in the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone and presently show contrasting types of activity. Llaima is a closed vent edifice with fumarolic activity, while Villarrica has an open vent with a lava lake, continuous degassing and tremor activity. This study is focused on characterizing the relationships between volcanic and seismic activity in the months before and after the 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake, which was located in NNW direction from the volcanoes. Time series for tremors, long-period and volcano-tectonic events were obtained from the catalogue of the Volcanic Observatory of the Southern Andes (OVDAS) and from the SFB 574 temporary volcanic network. An increase in the amount of tremor activity, long-period events and degassing rates was observed at Villarrica weeks before the mainshock and continued at a high level also after it. This increase in activity is interpreted to be caused by enhanced magma influx at depth and may be unrelated to the Maule event. In Llaima, an increase in the volcano-tectonic activity was observed directly after the earthquake. The simultaneous post-earthquake activity at both volcanoes is consistent with a structural adjustment response. Since this enhanced activity lasted for more than a year, we suggest that it is related to a medium-term change in the static stress. Thus, the Maule earthquake may have affected both volcanoes, but did not trigger eruptions, from which we assume that none of the volcanoes were in a critical state.  相似文献   

Buried pockmarks on the Top Chalk surface of the Danish North Sea and their potential significance for interpreting palaeocirculation patterns     

Samaneh Masoumi  Lars Reuning  Stefan Back  Alessandro Sandrin  Peter A. Kukla 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,103(2):563-578

Three-dimensional (3D) seismic data from the southern Danish North Sea were used to analyse the morphology and spatial distribution of depressions in the Danian Chalk deposit. Previously, these depressions were either interpreted as karst structures or pockmarks. The observed depressions occur in an interval from 25 ms below to 12 ms above the Top Chalk surface. Three types of depressions were differentiated based on their plan-view geometry and their degree of symmetry: Type 1, comprising sub-circular and symmetrical depressions, is the dominant group (ca. 70 %). Type 2, elongated and symmetrical depressions, represents only a small fraction (ca. 5 %). The elongated and asymmetrical depressions of Type 3 compose ca. 25 %. In cross section, each depression type can be either characterised by a V- or a U-shape. The maximum size of the depressions ranges from 50 to 580 m, with an average internal depth of 10 m. We interpret the depressions as pockmarks formed by the expulsion of biogenic or thermogenic fluids at the Danian seafloor. Likely, the initial form of the pockmarks has been circular (Type 1) and was subsequently modified for Types 2 and 3 to an elongated form by currents. The long axis of the pockmarks is interpreted to represent the effective current direction. The inferred direction is sub-parallel to the palaeobathymetric contours. The 3D seismic interpretation of pockmarks presented in this paper contributes to the understanding of fluid migration and palaeocirculation patterns during the sedimentation of the terminal Chalk Group in the southern Danish North Sea.  相似文献   

Extreme storms in Malmö, Sweden     

Lars Bengtsson  Stefan Milloti 《水文研究》2010,24(24):3462-3475

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Incorporating ancillary data to refine anthropogenically modified overland flow paths     

Guy D. Duke  Stefan W. Kienzle  Dan L. Johnson  James M. Byrne 《水文研究》2006,20(8):1827-1843

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A comment on the article “A collinearity diagnosis of the GNSS geocenter determination” by P. Rebischung,Z. Altamimi,and T. Springer     

Michael Meindl  Gerhard Beutler  Daniela Thaller  Rolf Dach  Stefan Schaer  Adrian Jäggi 《Journal of Geodesy》2015,89(2):189-194

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Short-term forecasting of groundwater levels under conditions of mine-tailings recharge using wavelet ensemble neural network models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Bahaa Khalil  Stefan Broda  Jan Adamowski  Bogdan Ozga-Zielinski  Amanda Donohoe 《Hydrogeology Journal》2015,23(1):121-141

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Multiple advances of Alpine glaciers into the Jura Mountains in the Northwestern Switzerland     

Angela Graf  Naki Akçar  Susan Ivy-Ochs  Stefan Strasky  Peter W. Kubik  Marcus Christl  Martin Burkhard  Rainer Wieler  Christian Schlüchter 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2015,108(2-3):225-238

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Influence of mid-latitude circulation on upper Indus basin precipitation: the explicit role of irrigation     

Fahad Saeed  Stefan Hagemann  Sajjad Saeed  Daniela Jacob 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):21-38

Since much of the flow of the Indus River originates in the Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains, an understanding of weather characteristics leading to precipitation over the region is essential for water resources management. This study examines the influence of upper level mid-latitude circulation on the summer precipitation over upper Indus basin (UIB). Using reanalysis data, a geopotential height index (GH) is defined at 200 hPa over central Asia, which has a significant correlation with the precipitation over UIB. GH has also shown significant correlation with the heat low (over Iran and Afghanistan and adjoining Pakistan), easterly shear of zonal winds (associated with central Asian high) and evapotranspiration (over UIB). It is argued that the geopotential height index has the potential to serve as a precursor for the precipitation over UIB. In order to assess the influence of irrigation on precipitation over UIB, a simplified irrigation scheme has been developed and applied to the regional climate model REMO. It has been shown that both versions of REMO (with and without irrigation) show significant correlations of GH with easterly wind shear and heat low. However contrary to reanalysis and the REMO version with irrigation, the REMO version without irrigation does not show any correlation between GH index and evapotranspiration as well as between geopotential height and precipitation over UIB, which is further confirmed by the quantitative analysis of extreme precipitation events over UIB. It is concluded that although atmospheric moisture over coastal Arabian sea region, triggered by wind shear and advected northward due to heat low, also contribute to the UIB precipitation. However for the availability of necessary moisture for precipitation over UIB, the major role is played by the evapotranspiration of water from irrigation. From the results it may also be inferred that the representation of irrigated water in climate models is unavoidable for studying the impact of global warming over the region.  相似文献   

How accurately are climatological characteristics and surface water and energy balances represented for the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin?     

Isabel Hoyos  Astrid Baquero-Bernal  Stefan Hagemann 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(5-6):1269-1290

In Colombia, the access to climate related observational data is restricted and their quantity is limited. But information about the current climate is fundamental for studies on present and future climate changes and their impacts. In this respect, this information is especially important over the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin (CCCB) that comprises over 80 % of the population of Colombia and produces about 85 % of its GDP. Consequently, an ensemble of several datasets has been evaluated and compared with respect to their capability to represent the climate over the CCCB. The comparison includes observations, reconstructed data (CPC, Delaware), reanalyses (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR), and simulated data produced with the regional climate model REMO. The capabilities to represent the average annual state, the seasonal cycle, and the interannual variability are investigated. The analyses focus on surface air temperature and precipitation as well as on surface water and energy balances. On one hand the CCCB characteristics poses some difficulties to the datasets as the CCCB includes a mountainous region with three mountain ranges, where the dynamical core of models and model parameterizations can fail. On the other hand, it has the most dense network of stations, with the longest records, in the country. The results can be summarised as follows: all of the datasets demonstrate a cold bias in the average temperature of CCCB. However, the variability of the average temperature of CCCB is most poorly represented by the NCEP/NCAR dataset. The average precipitation in CCCB is overestimated by all datasets. For the ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, and REMO datasets, the amplitude of the annual cycle is extremely high. The variability of the average precipitation in CCCB is better represented by the reconstructed data of CPC and Delaware, as well as by NCEP/NCAR. Regarding the capability to represent the spatial behaviour of CCCB, temperature is better represented by Delaware and REMO, while precipitation is better represented by Delaware. Among the three datasets that permit an analysis of surface water and energy balances (REMO, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR), REMO best demonstrates the closure property of the surface water balance within the basin, while NCEP/NCAR does not demonstrate this property well. The three datasets represent the energy balance fairly well, although some inconsistencies were found in the individual balance components for NCEP/NCAR.  相似文献