Bivariate frequency analysis of flood and extreme precipitation under changing environment: case study in catchments of the Loess Plateau,China     

Aijun?Guo  Jianxia?ChangEmail author  Yimin?Wang  Qiang?Huang  Zhihui?Guo  Shuai?Zhou 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(7):2057-2074

Floods have changed in a complex manner, triggered by the changing environment (i.e., intensified human activities and global warming). Hence, for better flood control and mitigation in the future, bivariate frequency analysis of flood and extreme precipitation events is of great necessity to be performed within the context of changing environment. Given this, in this paper, the Pettitt test and wavelet coherence transform analysis are used in combination to identify the period with transformed flood-generating mechanism. Subsequently, the primary and secondary return periods of annual maximum flood (AMF) discharge and extreme precipitation (Pr) during the identified period are derived based on the copula. Meanwhile, the conditional probability of occurring different flood discharge magnitudes under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated using the joint dependence structure between AMF and Pr. Moreover, Monte Carlo-based algorithm is performed to evaluate the uncertainties of the above copula-based analyses robustly. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions, which are Weihe River Basin (WRB) and Jinghe River Basin (JRB). Results indicate that: (1) the 1994–2014 and 1981–2014 are identified as periods with transformed flood-generating mechanism in the WRB and JRB, respectively; (2) the primary and secondary return periods for AMF and Pr are examined. Furthermore, chance of occurring different AMF under varying Pr scenarios also be elucidated according to the joint distribution of AMF and Pr. Despite these, one thing to notice is that the associate uncertainties are considerable, thus greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. Results of this study offer technical reference for copula-based frequency analysis under changing environment at regional and global scales.  相似文献   

Brittleness characteristics of tight oil siltstones     

Wen-Hui Tan  Jing Ba  Meng-Qiu Guo  Hui Li  Lin Zhang  Ting Yu  Hao Chen 《应用地球物理》2018,15(2):175-187

Rock brittleness directly affects reservoir fracturing and its evaluation is essential for establishing fracturing conditions prior to reservoir reforming. Dynamic and static brittleness data were collected from siltstones of the Qingshankou Formation in Songliao Basin. The brittle–plastic transition was investigated based on the stress–strain relation. The results suggest that the brittleness indices calculated by static elastic parameters are negatively correlated with the stress drop coefficient and the brittleness index B₂, defined as the average of the normalized Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio, is strongly correlated with the stress drop. The brittleness index B₂, Young’s modulus, and Poisson’s ratio correlate with the brittle minerals content; that is, quartz, carbonates, and pyrite. We also investigated the correlation between pore fluid and porosity and dynamic brittle characteristic based on index B₂. Pore fluid increases the plasticity of rock and reduces brittleness; moreover, with increasing porosity, rock brittleness decreases. The gas-saturated siltstone brittleness index is higher than that in oil- or water-saturated siltstone; the difference in the brittleness indices of oil- and water-saturated siltstone is very small. By comparing the rock mechanics and ultrasonic experiments, we find that the brittleness index obtained from the rock mechanics experiments is smaller than that obtained from the ultrasonic experiments; nevertheless, both decrease with increasing porosity as well as their differences. Ultrasonic waves propagate through the rock specimens without affecting them, whereas rock mechanics experiments are destructive and induce microcracking and porosity increases; consequently, the brittleness of low-porosity rocks is affected by the formation of internal microcrack systems.  相似文献   

Conductivity model for pyrite-bearing laminated and dispersed shaly sands based on a differential equation and the generalized Archie equation     

Zhi-Hua Guo  Yan-Jie Song  Xiao-Min Tang  Chao Wang 《应用地球物理》2018,15(2):208-221

The conductance of pyrite-bearing laminated and dispersed shaly sands is not well understood and resistivity models for pyrite-bearing shaly sands are nonexistent. Thus, we first synthesize clean pyrite-matrix samples, and quartz-matrix samples with variable laminated shale, dispersed shale, and pyrite content and then perform petrophysics experiments to assess the effect of pyrite content on the conductivity of pyrite-bearing shaly sands. Second, based on the differences in conductivity and conduction pathways and geometries because of the variable composition of the pyrite-bearing laminated and dispersed shaly sands, we divide the shaly sands into their components, i.e., laminated shale, quartz grains, pyrite grains, hydrocarbon, dispersed shale, microscopic capillary water, and mobile water. A generalized resistivity model is proposed to describe the conductivity of pyrite-bearing laminated and dispersed shaly sands, based on the combined conductivity differential equation and generalized Archie equation. In the generalized resistivity model, the conductivity differential equation is used to describe the conductivity of dispersed inclusions in a host, whereas the generalized Archie equation is used to describe the conductivity of two conducting phases. Moreover, parallel conductance theory is used to describe the conductivity of dispersed shaly sands and laminated shale. Theoretical analysis suggests that the proposed model satisfies the physical constraints and the model and experimental results agree. The resistivity and resistivity index of shaly sands decrease with increasing conductivity and pyrite. Finally, the accuracy of the resistivity model is assessed based on experimental data from 46 synthetic core samples with different oil saturation. The model can describe the conductivity of clean pyrite-matrix samples, and quartz-matrix samples with different volumes of laminated shale, dispersed shale, and pyrite. An accurate saturation model of pyrite-bearing laminated and dispersed shaly sands is thus obtained and the log data interpretation in complex shaly sands can improve with the proposed model.  相似文献   

Acoustic reflection well logging modeling using the frequency-domain finite-element method with a hybrid PML     

Bing Wang  Zhang Kuo  Tao Guo  Liu He  Xiao-Liang Zhang 《应用地球物理》2018,15(1):35-45

In this paper, we propose a hybrid PML (H-PML) combining the normal absorption factor of convolutional PML (C-PML) with tangential absorption factor of Mutiaxial PML (M-PML). The H-PML boundary conditions can better suppress the numerical instability in some extreme models. and the computational speed of finite-element method and the dynamic range are greatly increased using this HPML. We use the finiteelement method with a hybrid PML to model the acoustic reflection of the interface when wireline and well logging while drilling (LWD), in a formation with a reflector outside the borehole. The simulation results suggests that the PS- and SP- reflected waves arrive at the same time when the inclination between the well and the outer interface is zero, and the difference in arrival times increases with increasing dip angle. When there are fractures outside the well, the reflection signal is clearer in the subsequent reflection waves and may be used to identify the fractured zone. The difference between the dominant wavelength and the model scale shows that LWD reflection logging data are of higher resolution and quality than wireline acoustic reflection logging.  相似文献   

Structural strength deterioration of coastal bridge piers considering non-uniform corrosion in marine environments     

Anxin Guo  Wenting Yuan  Haitao Li  Hui Li 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2018,17(2):429-444

In the aggressive marine environment over a long-term service period,coastal bridges inevitably sustain corrosion-induced damage due to high sea salt and humidity.This paper investigates the strength reduction of coastal bridges,especially focusing on the effects of non-uniform corrosion along the height of bridge piers.First,the corrosion initiation time and the degradation of reinforcement and concrete are analyzed for bridge piers in marine environments.To investigate the various damage modes of the concrete cover,a discretization method with fiber cells is used for calculating time-dependent interaction diagrams of cross-sections of the bridge piers at the atmospheric zone and the splash and tidal zone under a combination of axial force and bending moment.Second,the shear strength of these aging structures is analyzed.Numerical simulation indicates that the strength of a concrete pier experiences dramatic reduction from corrosion initiation to the spalling of the concrete cover.Strength loss in the splash and tidal zone is more significant than in the atmospheric zone when structures’service time is assumed to be the same.  相似文献   

Rupture model of the 2013 M_W 6.6 Lushan (China) earthquake constrained by a new GPS data set and its effects on potential seismic hazard          下载免费PDF全文

Rumeng Guo  Yong Zheng  Faqi Diao  Xiong Xiong  Jiao Xu 《地震科学（英文版）》2018,31(3):117-125

Vertical records are critically important when determining the rupture model of an earthquake, especially a thrust earthquake. Due to the relatively low fitness level of near-field vertical displacements, the precision of previous rupture models is relatively low, and the seismic hazard evaluated thereafter should be further updated. In this study, we applied three-component displacement records from GPS stations in and around the source region of the 2013 MW6.6 Lushan earthquake to re-investigate the rupture model.To improve the resolution of the rupture model, records from both continuous and campaign GPS stations were gathered, and secular deformations of the GPS movements were removed from the records of the campaign stations to ensure their reliability. The rupture model was derived by the steepest descent method(SDM), which is based on a layered velocity structure. The peak slip value was about 0.75 m, with a seismic moment release of 9.89 × 10~(18) N·m, which was equivalent to an M_W6.6 event. The inferred fault geometry coincided well with the aftershock distribution of the Lushan earthquake. Unlike previous rupture models, a secondary slip asperity existed at a shallow depth and even touched the ground surface. Based on the distribution of the co-seismic ruptures of the Lushan and Wenchuan earthquakes, post-seismic relaxation of the Wenchuan earthquake, and tectonic loading process, we proposed that the seismic hazard is quite high and still needs special attention in the seismic gap between the two earthquakes.  相似文献   

江西相山酸性火山-侵入杂岩精确年代学与演化序列研究   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

郭福生  杨庆坤  谢财富  孟祥金  周万蓬  姜勇彪  张树明  吴志春 《地质科学》2015,(3):684-707

相山火山盆地主体岩石为一套由熔结凝灰岩、流纹英安岩、流纹英安斑岩、碎斑熔岩、粗斑花岗斑岩及似斑状花岗岩组成的酸性火山-侵入杂岩体, 构成了两个完整的喷发-溢流(侵出)-侵入的岩浆活动亚旋回。本文在野外地质调查的基础上, 采用SIMS、LA-ICP-MS技术对主要岩类进行了高精度的锆石U-Pb年代学研究, 并建立了火山-侵入杂岩体的演化序列。结果表明, 打鼓顶组熔结凝灰岩代表了相山火山-侵入活动的最早期产物, 其锆石U-Pb年龄为140.7±2.7 Ma、140.1±1.8 Ma和138.2±1.6 Ma, 第一亚旋回主体流纹英安岩的锆石U-Pb年龄135.0±1.8 Ma。鹅湖岭组熔结凝灰岩代表了火山-侵入活动的第二亚旋回的开始, 其U-Pb年龄为135.6±1.2 Ma, 第二亚旋回主体碎斑熔岩的锆石U-Pb年龄133.6±1.3 Ma, 沙洲单元的粗斑花岗斑岩和似斑状花岗岩属于该亚旋回最晚期的侵入岩, 其锆石U-Pb年龄代表了相山火山-侵入活动的结束时间(分别为133.4±1.2 Ma和133.9±1.1 Ma)。相山早白垩世火山-侵入活动延续时间较短, 整体上呈现一个连续的过程, 初始时间在141 Ma附近, 结束时间在132 Ma左右。概言之, 第一亚旋回(141~135 Ma)以形成熔结凝灰岩、流纹英安岩和流纹英安斑岩为主, 第二亚旋回(135~132 Ma)以熔结凝灰岩、碎斑熔岩、粗斑花岗斑岩和似斑状花岗岩为主。岩石地球化学和野外地质特征也与两个亚旋回火山-侵入岩浆活动相吻合。  相似文献   

EVALUATION OF ECOLOGICAL SERVICES OF JILIN PROVINCE, NORTHEAST CHINA   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

YU Shu-xia  SHANG Jin-cheng  GUO Huai-cheng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2004,14(3):215-220

1INTRODUCTIONEcosystem services can be divided into two major cat-egories, one is system function, and the other is sys-tem services and goods provision, which provide not only materials such as food and medicine, but also support and maintenance of whole system. Ecological services contribute to the whole economic system, both directly and indirectly, and consequently repre-sent parts of the total value of our economy system (COSTANZA etal., 1997; GUO etal., 2001). Sustainable d…  相似文献   

Assessment and zonation of storm surge hazards in the coastal areas of China     

Xianwu  Shi  Ziqiang  Han  Jiayi  Fang  Jun  Tan  Zhixing  Guo  Zhilin  Sun 《Natural Hazards》2020,101(1):39-57

Natural Hazards - Coastal inundation due to storm tides is computed using ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model along the east coast of India. Inland inundation due to storm tides is calculated every...  相似文献   

Progress in Danube Loess and Paleoenvironment Study     

Xuechao Wu  Qingzhen Hao  B Marković Slobodan  Yu Fu  Namira  Yang Song  Zhengtang Guo 《地球科学进展》2020,35(4):363-377

Danube loess, located at the westernmost part of the widespread Eurasian loess belt, is one of the most well-preserved aeolian dust deposits in Europe with the basal age dating back over 1 Ma. Owing to its unique location and formation processes, Danube loess plays an important role in understanding the linkage of climate changes in different climate regimes over Eurasian continent and paleoclimatic changes in middle-high northern latitudes. Major research advances of the Danube loess, including compositions, provenance, chronology, stratigraphy and paleoenvironment changes were systematically reviewed and the focuses of future research were suggested. To better understand loess provenance, the compositions of sediments in all the potential source areas should be investigated, and methodological study of provenance indicators and application of multi-proxies approaches need to be carried out. Chronologically and stratigraphically, feldspar luminescence dating and tephrochronology methods should be widely used, and the establishment of a uniform stratigraphic framework and correlation scheme should be constrained by precise chronology. In terms of the paleoenvironment, it is necessary to conduct high-resolution multi-proxies reconstruction of paleoenviroment for the entire loess-paleosol sequence, extending from the last interglacial period (130 ka to present) to interval of last 1 Ma. The future progress in Danube loess is crucial to improving the study of continental paleoclimate comparison and paleoclimate dynamics over the Eurasian loess region.  相似文献