Verification of two hydrological models for real-time flood forecasting in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region     

Tsering  Karma  Shrestha  Manish  Shakya  Kiran  Bajracharya  Birendra  Matin  Mir  Lozano  Jorge Luis Sanchez  Nelson  Jim  Wangchuk  Tandin  Parajuli  Binod  Bhuyan  Md Arifuzzaman 《Natural Hazards》2022,110(3):1821-1845

Natural Hazards - The Hindu Kush Himalayan region is extremely susceptible to periodic monsoon floods. Early warning systems with the ability to predict floods in advance can benefit tens of...  相似文献   

A proposed probabilistic seismic tsunami hazard analysis methodology     

Knighton  James  Bastidas  Luis A. 《Natural Hazards》2015,78(1):699-723

Natural Hazards - We expand on existing probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) approaches by presenting a methodology wherein the epistemic uncertainties associated with tsunami timing,...  相似文献   

Volcanism–sedimentation interaction in the Campo de Calatrava Volcanic Field (Spain): a magnetostratigraphic and geochronological study     

Antonio Herrero-Hernández  Francisco Javier López-Moro  José Luis Gallardo-Millán  Ángel Martín-Serrano  Fernando Gómez-Fernández 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2015,104(1):103-122

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A multi-physics ensemble of present-day climate regional simulations over the Iberian Peninsula     

Sonia Jerez  Juan Pedro Montavez  Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero  Juan Jose Gomez-Navarro  Raquel Lorente-Plazas  Eduardo Zorita 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(11-12):3023-3046

This work assesses the influence of the model physics in present-day regional climate simulations. It is based on a multi-phyiscs ensemble of 30-year long MM5 hindcasted simulations performed over a complex and climatically heterogeneous domain as the Iberian Peninsula. The ensemble consists of eight members that results from combining different parametrization schemes for modeling the Planetary Boundary Layer, the cumulus and the microphysics processes. The analysis is made at the seasonal time scale and focuses on mean values and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. The objectives are (1) to evaluate and characterize differences among the simulations attributable to changes in the physical options of the regional model, and (2) to identify the most suitable parametrization schemes and understand the underlying mechanisms causing that some schemes perform better than others. The results confirm the paramount importance of the model physics, showing that the spread among the various simulations is of comparable magnitude to the spread obtained in similar multi-model ensembles. This suggests that most of the spread obtained in multi-model ensembles could be attributable to the different physical configurations employed in the various models. Second, we obtain that no single ensemble member outperforms the others in every situation. Nevertheless, some particular schemes display a better performance. On the one hand, the non-local MRF PBL scheme reduces the cold bias of the simulations throughout the year compared to the local Eta model. The reason is that the former simulates deeper mixing layers. On the other hand, the Grell parametrization scheme for cumulus produces smaller amount of precipitation in the summer season compared to the more complex Kain-Fritsch scheme by reducing the overestimation in the simulated frequency of the convective precipitation events. Consequently, the interannual variability of precipitation (temperature) diminishes (increases), which implies a better agreement with the observations in both cases. Although these features improve in general the accuracy of the simulations, controversial nuances are also highlighted.  相似文献   

Technologies and science archives for ultraviolet astronomy     

Noah Brosch  Martin Barstow  Jose Chirivella 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2014,354(1):125-141

This paper summarizes 17 talks presented during the Technological sessions at the “Challenges in UV Astronomy” conference. It is based on summaries submitted by the presenters, on the slides of their talks, on notes written by the authors, and on additional material kindly submitted to the lead author. In many instances the summaries were written by the presenters themselves and are included as-submitted to the authors with just minor editorial interference. In other cases one of the editors wrote the summary based on their notes and on the files of the actual presentations. The contributions are placed in the general context of the current knowledge in the field. The sessions were devoted to: [a] detectors, [b] optics, [c] integration and verification procedures for vacuum UV instruments and [d] calibration and archival research. A cautionary note: this is not a regular article in these proceedings presenting one idea, an experiment, of a result. It is rather a distillation of what was presented at the NUVA/ESO/IAG meeting at the sessions deemed technological, therefore it will lack an overall coherence although the individual sections and subsections should be logically connected.  相似文献   

THz photometers for solar flare observations from space     

Pierre Kaufmann  Rogério Marcon  André Abrantes  Emilio C. Bortolucci  Luis Olavo T. Fernandes  Grigory I. Kropotov  Amauri S. Kudaka  Nelson Machado  Adolfo Marun  Valery Nikolaev  Alexandre Silva  Claudemir S. da Silva  Alexander Timofeevsky 《Experimental Astronomy》2014,37(3):579-598

The search for the still unrevealed spectral shape of the mysterious THz solar flare emissions is one of the current most challenging research issues. The concept, fabrication and performance of a double THz photometer system, named SOLAR-T, is presented. Its innovative optical setup allows observations of the full solar disk and the detection of small burst transients at the same time. The detecting system was constructed to observe solar flare THz emissions on board of stratospheric balloons. The system has been integrated to data acquisition and telemetry modules for this application. SOLAR-T uses two Golay cell detectors preceded by low-pass filters made of rough surface primary mirrors and membranes, 3 and 7 THz band-pass filters, and choppers. Its photometers can detect small solar bursts (tens of solar flux units) with sub second time resolution. Tests have been conducted to confirm the entire system performance, on ambient and low pressure and temperature conditions. An artificial Sun setup was developed to simulate performance on actual observations. The experiment is planned to be on board of two long-duration stratospheric balloon flights over Antarctica and Russia in 2014–2016.  相似文献   

Modelling mechanical behaviour of limestone under reservoir conditions     

Lúcia Carvalho Coelho  Antonio Claudio Soares  Nelson Francisco F. Ebecken  Jos Luis Drummond Alves  Luiz Landau 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2006,30(14):1477-1500

High porosity and low permeability limestone has presented pore collapse. As fluid is withdrawn from these reservoirs, the effective stresses acting on the rock increase. If the strength of the rock is overcome, pore collapse may occur, leading to irreversible compaction of porous media with permeability and porosity reduction. It impacts on fluid withdrawal. Most of reservoirs have been discovered in weak formations, which are susceptible to this phenomenon. This work presents a study on the mechanical behaviour of a porous limestone from a reservoir located in Campos Basin, offshore Brazil. An experimental program was undergone in order to define its elastic plastic behaviour. The tests reproduced the loading path conditions expected in a reservoir under production. Parameters of the cap model were fitted to these tests and numerical simulations were run. The numerical simulations presented a good agreement with the experimental tests. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Perturbed Gylden Systems and Time-Dependent Delaunay-Like Transformations     

Luis Floría 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1997,68(1):75-85

We study the possibilities and limitations of the application of generalized Delaunay-like transformations (in the 6-dimensional phase space) and TR-like mappings (in the 8-dimensional, extended phase space) to perturbed two-body problems with a time-varying Keplerian parameter μ(t), that is, to Gylden-type systems. For the sake of theoretical completeness, both negative- and positive-energy motion (with nonstationary coupling parameter) are, in principle, considered. Our developments are intended to introduce canonical variables parallelling the classical ones of Delaunay and the Delaunay-Similar variables of Scheifele. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Detection of satellite remnants in the Galactic Halo with Gaia– I. The effect of the Galactic background, observational errors and sampling     

Anthony G. A. Brown  Hector M. Velázquez  Luis A. Aguilar 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,359(4):1287-1305

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The "So What?" factor     

Chapman PM  Guerra LM 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,50(12):529-1458

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