On forecasting abnormal climatic events in the tropical Atlantic Ocean     

Jacques Servain  Sabine Arnault 《Annales Geophysicae》1995,13(9):995-1008

Modelling and observational evidence indicate that interannual variabilities of dynamic height and sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Gulf of Guinea) are largely induced by preceding fluctuations in wind stress, mainly in the western equatorial basin. A wind-driven linear ocean model is used here to test the possibility of forecasting the abnormal dynamic heights. A control run of the model, forced by 1964–1993 wind stress monthly means, is first conducted. Yearly test runs (1964-1994) are subsequently performed from January to August by forcing the model with observed winds from January to May, and then by forcing with the May wind assumed to persist from June to August. During the last three decades the largest deviations of dynamic height simulated by the control run in the Gulf of Guinea in boreal summer would have been correctly forecast from wind data related only to conditions in May of each year. However, for weak climatic anomalies, the model may forecast overestimated values. For the most part (about 20 times during the last 30 years), the sign of the observed SST anomaly in the centre of the Gulf of Guinea during the boreal summer is identical to the sign of simulated anomalies of dynamic height deduced from both control and test runs. Along the eastern equatorial waveguide, the sea level forecasting skill slowly decreases from the first 2 weeks of June until the second 2 weeks of August, but remains high on both sides of the equator throughout boreal summer, as is expected from the adjustment in a linear ocean model. It is established that throughout the year in the Gulf of Guinea the accuracy of the 1-month forecast dynamic height anomaly provided by the simple linear method is greater than that of the 1-month forecast assuming persistence.  相似文献   

The influence of natural organic matter on the adsorption properties of mineral particles in lake water     

Peter Baccini  Erwin Grieder  Ruth Stierli  Sabine Goldberg 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1982,44(1):99-116

The adsorption characteristics of sediment particles from a prealpine Swiss lake were compared with those of γ-aluminum oxide. Under lake water conditions, i.e. with particle concentration of 2–16 mg/1 and DOC concentrations of 1–4 mg/1 at pH=8, the adsorption of copper, zinc and orthophosphate is reduced significantly by the presence of natural organic matter (NOM). It is postulated that the binding sites of the natural mineral surfaces are occupied almost completely by NOM under natural conditions. A simple ligand exchange model can explain the observed phenomena.  相似文献   

Restoration of submerged vegetation in shallow eutrophic lakes – A guideline and state of the art in Germany     

Sabine Hilt  Elisabeth M. Gross  Michael Hupfer  Harald Morscheid  Jens Mhlmann  Arnulf Melzer  Jens Poltz  Stefan Sandrock  Eva-Maria Scharf  Susanne Schneider  Klaus van de Weyer 《Limnologica》2006,36(3):155-171

One of the most serious problems caused by eutrophication of shallow lakes is the disappearance of submerged macrophytes and the switch to a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state. The reduction of external nutrient loads often does not result in a change back to the macrophyte-dominated state because stabilising mechanisms that cause resilience may delay a response. Additional internal lake restoration measures may therefore be needed to decrease the concentration of total phosphorus and increase water clarity. The re-establishment of submerged macrophytes required for a long-term stability of clear water conditions, however, may still fail, or mass developments of tall-growing species may cause nuisance for recreational use. Both cases are often not taken into account when restoration measures are planned in Germany, and existing schemes to reduce eutrophication consider the topic inadequately. Here we develop a step-by-step guideline to assess the chances of submerged macrophyte re-establishment in shallow lakes. We reviewed and rated the existing literature and case studies with special regard on (1) the impact of different internal lake restoration methods on the development of submerged macrophytes, (2) methods for the assessment of natural re-establishment, (3) requirements and methods for artificial support of submerged macrophyte development and (4) management options of macrophyte species diversity and abundance in Germany. This guideline is intended to help lake managers aiming to restore shallow lakes in Germany to critically asses and predict the potential development of submerged vegetation, taking into account the complex factors and interrelations that determine their occurrence, abundance and diversity.  相似文献   

Stable mineral assemblages of ingneous rocks: A Rittmann. (With contributions by V. Gottini,W. Hewers,H. Pichler and R. Stengelin.) Springer,Berlin, 1973, 262 pp., 85 illus., DM 76.00     

P.A. Sabine 《Sedimentary Geology》1975,13(2):157-158

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Econometric analysis to differentiate effects of various ship safety inspections   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Sabine Knapp  Philip Hans Franses   《Marine Policy》2008,32(4):653-662

This article provides a refined technique to measure and interpret variables associated with the quality of an inspection—be it port state control or vetting inspections towards the probability of a very serious, serious or less serious casualty. It concentrates on filtering out the effect of variables such as detention, the port state control regime that inspected the vessel, time in-between inspections, deficiencies found during an inspection and the effect of vetting inspections. The consensus amongst policy makers in the shipping industry is that data cannot be combined to target vessels. While this article does demonstrate that the decrease in the probability of casualty is stronger for the South American Region, the Indian Ocean Region and Australia versus North Europe, North America or the Caribbean, it also demonstrates that the data can be combined to target vessels for inspections. Since the time in-between inspections and detention is mostly not significant towards decreasing the probability of casualty, these results reflect the lack of coordination amongst port state control regimes and industry inspections. Due to this lack of coordination and trust, a ship might be inspected in several regimes during a relative short time period where the benefit of an inspection can be easily saturated. Our recommendation on direct policy implication is to promote the harmonization of inspection databases across port state control regimes, preferably with the coordination of the development of the Global Integrated Ship Information System (GISIS) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), to review the policy of a release of a vessel from detention and to increase cooperation amongst regimes with respect to the follow up of the rectification of deficiencies.  相似文献   

Benthic macrofauna and productivity regimes in the Barents Sea — Ecological implications in a changing Arctic     

Sabine K.J. Cochrane  Stanislav G. Denisenko  Paul E. Renaud  Christopher S. Emblow  William G. Ambrose Jr.  Ingrid H. Ellingsen  Jofrid Skarhamar 《Journal of Sea Research》2009,61(4):222-233

Benthic faunal assemblages were analysed from 47 stations in the central and southern parts of the Barents Sea, together with sedimentary and water column parameters, daily ice records and modelled integrated primary productivity. Sampling spanned areas influenced by Atlantic Water (AW) to those lying under Arctic Water (ArW), and included stations with mixed water masses. Ice cover suppressed water column productivity in the northern areas. Three main faunal groups were identified, based on similarity of numerical faunal composition. The northern and southern faunal groups were separated by the northernmost penetration of AW in the bottom water and the third group, the Hopen group, was influenced by modified bank water. Faunal abundances were significantly higher within the southern faunal group relative to the northern group, but the numbers of taxa present were similar. The particularly rich fauna of the Hopen group reflected sediment heterogeneity and tight pelagic–benthic coupling. These results suggest that a retreat and thinning of the ice cover in the Barents Sea likely will result in the northern parts of the Barents Sea becoming more Atlantic in character, with a higher productivity at the sea floor.  相似文献   

Econometric analysis of the ship demolition market     

Sabine Knapp  Shashi N. Kumar  Anna Bobo Remijn   《Marine Policy》2008,32(6):1023-1036

The topic of ship recycling has obtained considerable attention during the last two decades for a variety of reasons with the likelihood of the adoption of a new international convention under the auspices of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). This study applies econometric modeling to a unique data set to provide insight into the dynamics of the ship recycling market. The data set contains information on 51,112 ships over 100 gt and includes 748,621 events over a period of 29 years. The analysis confirms a negative relationship of earnings and a positive relationship of scrap prices for all locations while Bangladesh seems to be more sensitive to changes in earnings than the other locations and more likely demolishes larger and older vessels. The results for flag and ownership vary across scrapping locations with Malta and Cyprus indicating potential importance from a registry perspective. The overall safety profile of a vessel seems to be less important towards the probability of a ship being scrapped. Possible implementation of the convention at EU level will mostly likely affect Turkey while non-ratification of one of the major flags will most likely affect China or Bangladesh.  相似文献   

Features of coastal upwelling regions that determine net air-sea CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> flux   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Debby Ianson  Richard A. Feely  Christopher L. Sabine  Lauren W. Juranek 《Journal of Oceanography》2009,65(5):677-687

The influence of the coastal ocean on global net annual air-sea CO₂ fluxes remains uncertain. However, it is well known that air-sea pCO₂ disequilibria can be large (ocean pCO₂ ranging from ∼400 μatm above atmospheric saturation to ∼250 μatm below) in eastern boundary currents, and it has been hypothesized that these regions may be an appreciable net carbon sink. In addition it has been shown that the high productivity in these regions (responsible for the exceptionally low surface pCO₂) can cause nutrients and inorganic carbon to become more concentrated in the lower layer of the water column over the shelf relative to adjacent open ocean waters of the same density. This paper explores the potential role of the winter season in determining the net annual CO₂ flux in temperate zone eastern boundary currents, using the results from a box model. The model is parameterized and forced to represent the northernmost part of the upwelling region on the North American Pacific coast. Model results are compared to the few summer data that exist in that region. The model is also used to determine the effect that upwelling and downwelling strength have on the net annual CO₂ flux. Results show that downwelling may play an important role in limiting the amount of CO₂ outgassing that occurs during winter. Finally data from three distinct regions on the Pacific coast are compared to highlight the importance of upwelling and downwelling strength in determining carbon fluxes in eastern boundary currents and to suggest that other features, such as shelf width, are likely to be important.  相似文献   

Corrigendum to “Climatological mean and decadal change in surface ocean pCO₂, and net sea–air CO₂ flux over the global oceans” [Deep Sea Res. II 56 (2009) 554–577]     

Taro Takahashi  Stewart C. Sutherland  Rik Wanninkhof  Colm Sweeney  Richard A. Feely  David W. Chipman  Burke Hales  Gernot Friederich  Francisco Chavez  Christopher Sabine  Andrew Watson  Dorothee C.E. Bakker  Ute Schuster  Nicolas Metzl  Hisayuki Yoshikawa-Inoue  Masao Ishii  Takashi Midorikawa  Yukihiro Nojiri  Arne Krtzinger  Tobias Steinhoff  Mario Hoppema  Jon Olafsson  Thorarinn S. Arnarson  Bronte Tilbrook  Truls Johannessen  Are Olsen  Richard Bellerby  C.S. Wong  Bruno Delille  N.R. Bates  Hein J.W. de Baar 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2009,56(11):2075-2076

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A mass‐balance approach to estimate in‐stream processes in a large river     

Samuel Teissier  Sabine Sauvage  Philippe Vervier  Frédéric Garabétian  José‐Miguel Sánchez‐Pérez 《水文研究》2008,22(3):420-428

A mass‐balance approach was used to estimate in‐stream processes related to inorganic nitrogen species (NH₄⁺, NO₂^? and NO₃^?) in a large river characterized by highly variable hydrological conditions, the Garonne River (south‐west France). Studies were conducted in two consecutive reaches of 30 km located downstream of the Toulouse agglomeration (population 760 000, seventh order), impacted by modification of discharge regime and high nitrogen concentrations. The mass‐balance was calculated by two methods: the first is based on a variable residence time (VRT) simulated by a one‐dimensional (1‐D) hydraulic model; the second is a based on a calculation using constant residence time (CRT) evaluated according to hydrographic peaks. In the context of the study, removal of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) for a reach of 30 km is underestimated by 11% with the CRT method. In sub‐reaches, the discrepancy between the two methods led to a 50% overestimation of DIN removal in the upper reach (13 km) and a 43% underestimation in the lower reach (17 km) using the CRT method. The study highlights the importance of residence time determination when using modelling approaches in the assessment of whole stream processes in short‐duration mass‐balance for a large river under variable hydrological conditions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献