东平县建设用地需求预测方法研究     

方颖  邹县委  张平 《山东地质》2011,(1):33-36

针对传统预测方法不能同时兼顾市场经济和政策对建设用地需求影响的不足,探索性地提出：一元直线回归预测、灰色系统GM（1,1）预测法、综合分析法。通过对3种方法预测结果的比较,从而评价综合分析法的可信度与准确性。研究结果：运用综合分析法预测东平县近期建设用地需求（2010年）为16 342.36 hm^2、远期建设用地需求（2020年）为17 620.79 hm^2,研究方法对土地利用规划中的建设用地需求预测有借鉴意义。  相似文献   

少数民族生态移民绩效分析——以疏勒河项目区为例     

张平  李秀芬  鲍洪杰 《地域研究与开发》2011,30(6)

着眼于微观家庭对生态移民绩效的判断,从经济、生活和社会关系多角度进行考察.以疏勒河项目区少数民族移民定居点的家庭调查为样本,构造了包括5项二级指标和21项三级指标的影响因素指标体系,进行logit 回归模型分析;利用模糊DEA方法进行绩效综合评价.认为提高少数民族生态移民绩效必须满足多样性的自愿移民家庭需求;逐步使移民工作由扶贫开发的特殊轨道纳入到区域社会经济发展规划的正常轨道;重视为移民提供安全、心理和社交方面的保障;加强基础设施建设,多渠道提供资金支持.  相似文献   

Air-based measurements of permeability in pebbly sands     

Conrad CM  Ritzi RW  Dominic DF 《Ground water》2008,46(1):103-112

We considered small-scale measurement of permeability in pebbly sands having coarser grains supported in a finer grained matrix (fine packing). Our central question was whether air-based measurements are representative if made with a permeameter tip seal pressed in the sand matrix. We created pebbly sands and variably sorted sands, with systematic variation in aspects of their fine packing. We made permeability measurements by inserting the tip seal of an air permeameter in the matrix of these samples and compared them to the permeability of the composite sample determined by both water-based methods and theory. The air-permeameter measurements made in this way represent the permeability of the composite mixtures of coarser and finer grains and allow for the discernment of permeability between samples with different matrix compositions, ranging from fine to coarse sand. Furthermore, the collective results show that permeability differences in the pebbly sands and variably sorted sands with fine packing, however measured, are primarily due to differences in matrix permeability and not due to differences in the size or the percentage of the coarser grains.  相似文献   

Microbiological response to well pumping     

Kwon MJ  Sanford RA  Park J  Kirk MF  Bethke CM 《Ground water》2008,46(2):286-294

To better constrain sampling strategies for observing biologically sensitive parameters in ground water, we vigorously pumped for 120 h a lightly pumped well completed in a confined glacial aquifer while observing how various physical and chemical parameters evolve in the water produced. The parameters commonly monitored when sampling a well stabilized within about an hour, after 5 wellbore volumes were produced; these parameters include temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, oxidation-reduction potential (Eh), and electrical conductivity. The concentrations of ferrous iron, sulfide, and sulfate and various biological or biologically sensitive parameters, including the concentrations of dissolved hydrogen and methane, direct cell counts, and the microbial community profile, in contrast, required more than 8 h or 36 well volumes to stabilize. We interpret this result to mean that the zone of influence of the wellbore on biologic processes in the aquifer extends beyond the commonly recognized zone where physical properties are affected. A second period of adjustment of these biologically sensitive parameters began after about 50 h of pumping, following displacement of 230 wellbore volumes, and continued to the end of the experiment. During this period, the cell density and the composition of the microbial community suspended in the water samples changed. This finding indicates that the microbial community in and near the wellbore changed in response to pumping and the changes affected aspects of the composition of water produced from the well. The study demonstrates the importance of allowing adequate pumping time when sampling ground water for the analysis of biologically sensitive parameters.  相似文献   

Effects of the 'Prestige' oil spill on macroalgal assemblages: large-scale comparison     

Lobón CM  Fernández C  Arrontes J  Rico JM  Acuña JL  Anadón R  Monteoliva JA 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,56(6):1192-1200

An assessment of the effects of the 'Prestige' oil spill on intertidal, macroalgal assemblages was carried out comparing abundance data obtained before and after the spill. Four zones in the North and Northwest coast of Spain were sampled, one of them located at the immediate vicinity of the spill, the zone most heavily oiled. Macroalgal assemblages had similar structure between years. Neither critical decrease in abundance of the dominant macroalgae, nor increase in opportunistic species were found. Some differences in abundance were observed, but they did not show any pattern, being more likely the result of the natural variability of the assemblage. Extensive, but not intense fuel deposition on the shores and a limited use of aggressive cleanup methods are suggested as possible causes for the lack of the effects in these assemblages after the 'Prestige' oil spill.  相似文献   

汶川Ms8．0地震的短临地电波动（潮汐力谐振和共振波-HRT波）前兆   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

钱复业  赵璧如  钱卫  赵健  何世根  李世愚  孙振凯  张东宁  张洪魁  卢军  李绍坤  郭纯生  夏坤寿  徐建明  鞠航  黎明  和泰名  唐宇雄  张平  赵玉林 《国际地震动态》2008,(7)

简要介绍了强震短临前兆的HRT波模型,和用HRT波模型分析强震前地电观测资料预测未来强震的时间、地点、震级三要素方法。用HRT波模型分析了2008年汶川MS8.0地震前四川红格地电台的记录资料,提取出了汶川MS8.0地震前短临前兆信息。  相似文献   

土钉支护结构破坏模式和加固机制分析     

贺若兰  李宁  张平 《岩土力学》2008,29(1):197-202

对不同土质中土性参数和支护参数共同影响下基坑土钉支护结构的内力和位移进行了系统的数值试验研究。结果表明,从砂土到粉土,再到软黏土介质变化时,基坑位移大小剧增,位移形态也发展成下部凸出的流鼓状,而且中下部土钉不能满足承载力要求。土性参数中,内摩擦角和凝聚力是导致位移形态发生改变的主要因素,侧压力系数主要引起位移大小的变化。支护参数中,土钉密度突出控制钉间土体位移;土钉长度在砂土中控制上部位移显著,软黏土中抑制下部位移更明显;土钉刚度的影响体现为钉土刚度比的影响,主要由插筋刚度控制,而随土类变化并不明显;并得出了各支护参数的临界值。  相似文献   

汶川8．0级地震HRT波地震短临波动前兆及HRT波地震短临预测方法——关于实现强震短临预测可能性的讨论   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

钱复业  赵璧如  钱卫  赵健  何世根  张洪魁  李世愚  李绍坤  严谷良  汪成民  孙振凯  张东宁  卢军  张平  杨国军  孙加林  郭纯生  唐宇雄  徐建明  夏坤涛  鞠航  殷邦红  黎明  杨东生  起卫罗  和泰名  关华平  赵玉林 《中国科学D辑》2009,39(1):11-23

2004年初开始在川滇地区布设的4个地电台,使用所研制的抗干扰性能极强的PS-100地电测量系统和技术,捕捉地震短临前兆．至2008汶川8．0级地震前,唯一仍在工作的红格台记录到了汶川地震的HRT波短临前兆．根据潮汐力谐振共振波（简称为HRT波）短临地震预测模型,在汶川8．0级地震前5月11日夜至12日凌晨5时分析得到了大震即将来临的结果．所记前兆同以前各台对其他强震所记的HRT波震例的规律有很强的一致性．所测物理量（地电阻率与地电流）仅在强震前才出现潮汐力的周期,而其振幅在震前数月至几天明显增大．通过研究所记的实例表明,它们通常与几天后所发生的地震有因果关系,这种波的到时与台站的震中距成正比;由这种波动所测的断层固有周期％与断层长度（震级）有关,对6-9级地震,死的范围为1-6h．有证据表明,它们是来自即将发生地震的震源区．这种波动周期较长,在地壳中,可传播数百乃至数千公里．对发生在地壳中的浅源大震,地壳固体在其孔、裂隙中通常含有易于流动的（导电的）流体（溶液）,这种流体在地震孕育过程中因受力（孔隙压力）先于断层位移（地震）产生的（微小）扰动（波动）,对所观测的HRT波提供了一种可能的解释．从2004年在川滇地区增设4个PS-100HRT波台站,试图捕捉强震短临前兆,到2008年发生汶川8．0级地震（距离新增的MN台△=288km;距离记录到HRT波短临异常的HG台△=465km;距离青川640km）前,HG台捕捉到汶川8．0级地震的HRT短临前兆的全过程,表明地震是有前兆的,地震是可以预测、预报的,在可预见的将来实现地震的短临预报是可行的．  相似文献   

清代东北地区土地开发及其动因分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

李为  张平宇  宋玉祥 《地理科学》2005,25(1):7-16

论述了清代东北地区土地开发过程、特点和趋动因子。指出封禁时期土地开发主要集中于辽河流域及辽西地区,吉、黑两地只有零星开发,总的呈现一派大荒景象。开禁后,先后在奉天、吉林、黑龙江进行了大面积的放垦。大规模的移民和高速度的土地开发世所少见。最后分析了影响东北地区土地开发的主要趋动因子,指出巨大的人口压力、连年的大灾荒以及清朝政府的土地开发政策是造成清代晚期东北地区大规模移民和高速度土地开发的重要原因。  相似文献   

1990年以来辽宁省环境与经济协调度评价   总被引：14，自引：4，他引：10  

李鹤  张平宇  刘文新 《地理科学》2007,27(4):486-492

环境与经济协调发展是实现可持续发展的重要途径。关于环境与经济协调发展程度的定量评价方法和理论目前尚未成熟,从环境与经济协调发展及其协调度的概念出发,利用因子分析与相关分析相结合的方法设计了一套环境与经济协调度的定量评价方法,并对1990年以来辽宁省环境与经济协调发展状况进行了定量评价,结果表明:1990年以来辽宁省环境与经济协调状况经历了从失调向初级协调的转变过程,环境与经济协调度的发展大致呈“V”型趋势变化,“九五”时期是协调状态由失调向初级协调的过渡阶段,1997年以后环境与经济处于初级协调状态。对辽宁省环境与经济协调度的限制因子进行了分析,指出能源和水资源短缺、工业三废排放量大、局部地区生态环境问题突出、区域经济差距扩大等因素将长期制约辽宁省环境与经济协调发展。  相似文献