Climate change and uncertainty assessment over a hydroclimatic transect of Michigan   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Jongho Kim  Valeriy Y. Ivanov  Simone Fatichi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(3):923-944

Predictions of a warmer climate over the Great Lakes region due to global change generally agree on the magnitude of temperature changes, but precipitation projections exhibit dependence on which General Circulation Models and emission scenarios are chosen. To minimize model- and scenario-specific biases, we combined information provided by the 3rd phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project database. Specifically, the results of 12 GCMs for three emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 were analyzed for mid- (2046–2065) and end-century (2081–2100) intervals, for six locations of a hydroclimatic transect of Michigan. As a result of Bayesian Weighted Averaging, total annual precipitation averaged over all locations and the three emission scenarios increases by 7 % (mid-)–10 % (end-century), as compared to the control period (1961–1990). The projected changes across seasons are non-uniform and precipitation decreases by 3 % (mid-)–5 % (end-) for the months of August and September are likely. Further, average temperature is very likely to increase by 2.02–2.85 °C by the mid-century and 2.58–4.73 °C by the end-century. Three types of non-additive uncertainty sources due to climate models, anthropogenic forcings, and climate internal variability are addressed. When compared to the emission uncertainty, the relative magnitudes of the uncertainty types for climate model ensemble and internal variability are 149 and 225 % for mean monthly precipitation, and they are respectively 127 and 123 % for mean monthly temperature. A decreasing trend of the frost days and an increasing trend of the growing season length are identified. Also, a significant increase in the magnitude and frequency of heavy rainfall events is projected, with relatively more pronounced changes for heavy hourly rainfall as compared to daily events. Quantifying the inherent natural uncertainty and projecting hourly-based extremes, the study results deliver useful information for water resource stakeholders interested in impacts of climate change on hydro-morphological processes.  相似文献   

Tracing offshore low-salinity plumes in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the summer season by use of multispectral remote-sensing data     

Young Baek Son  Wilford D. Gardner  Mary Jo Richardson  Joji Ishizaka  Joo-Hyung Ryu  Sang-Hyun Kim  Sang H. Lee 《Journal of Oceanography》2012,68(5):743-760

To trace offshore surface low-salinity water (LSW) in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, a proxy was developed using the surface water beam attenuation coefficient (c _p), and salinity matched with synchronous Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) satellite data from three annual summer cruises (July 1998–August 2000) using a two-step empirical approach. First, a relationship between in-situ salinity and c _p was obtained. Second, in-situ c _p was matched with SeaWiFS radiance ratios of all available blue-to-green wavelengths. Finally, satellite-derived surface salinity was determined directly by combining the two empirical relationships, providing a robust estimate over a range of salinities (26–36). This significantly improves the limited spatial and temporal resolution of surface salinity distribution obtained by shipboard sampling. The resulting correlation is best explained as mixing between low-salinity plume waters and normal salinity Gulf waters. The empirical relationships were used to map satellite-derived salinity using the average of SeaWiFS images during each summer cruise. As expected for summer, spatial patterns of LSW plumes with high c _p, particulate matter (PM), particulate organic carbon (POC), and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) were connected to the mouth of the Mississippi River Delta and extended to the east-southeast. Normal salinity Gulf water with lower c _p, PM, POC, and Chl-a was confined to the shelf and upper slope in the eastern part of the study area, outside the plumes. This proxy approach can be applied throughout the region of shipboard sampling for more detailed coverage and analysis.  相似文献   

Mooring tension and motion characteristics of a submerged fish reef with net in waves and currents using numerical analysis   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Tae Ho Kim  David W.Fredriksson  Judson DeCewc 《中国海洋工程》2012,26(2):261-276

A numerical model was used to analyze the motion response and mooring tension of a submerged fish reef system. The system included a net attached to a rigid structure suspended up from the bottom with a single, high tension mooring by fixed flotation. The analysis was performed by using a Morison equation type finite element model configured with truss elements. Input forcing parameters into the model consisted of both regular and irregular waves, with and without a steady current. Heave, surge and pitch dynamic calculations of the reef structure were made. Tension response results of the attached mooring line were also computed. Results were analyzed in both the time and frequency domain in which appropriate, linear transfer functions were calculated. The influence of the current was more evident in the tension and heave motion response data. This is most likely the result of the large buoyancy characteristics of the reef structure and the length of the mooring cable. Maximum mooring component tension was found to be 13.9 kN and occurred when the reef was subjected to irregular waves with a co-linear current of 1.0 m/s velocity. The results also showed that the system had little damping (in heave) with damped natural periods of 2.8 s. This combination of system characteristics promotes a possible resonating situation in typical open sea conditions with similar wave periods.  相似文献   

Development and application of a novel miniature in situ microprofiler (NAFRI BelpI)     

Jae Seong Lee  Eun-Soo Kim  Sung-Hyun Kahng  Seok-Hyun Yoon  Jin-Hyung Cho  Kyung-Soo Bahk  Dong-Jin Kang 《Ocean Science Journal》2012,47(4):489-495

We have developed a novel miniature in situ microprofiler (NAFRI BelpI) for coastal and deep-sea studies. The BelpI can carry up to three oxygen microsensors, and it allows for simultaneous replicate measurements in a relatively small area. All functions can be controlled and programmed via a small magnetic bar and three reed switches; this feature facilitates the initial setup both onboard and underwater. The large LCD window shows basic information such as the movement intervals of the linear stage, number of replicate measurements, waiting time between measurements, and the pA from the microsensors. From high-resolution vertical profiles of oxygen in coastal sediment measured using the microsensors, the diffusivity boundary layer thicknesses was determined to be in the range 0.30–0.35 mm. In addition, the time-series measurement of oxygen profiles in permeable sandy sediment showed advective transport of oxygen into pore water by tidal agitation. Two examples of in situ measurement using a BelpI suggest that it can be widely applied to the study of the sediment-water interface.  相似文献   

Tidal dynamics in the strong tidal current environment of the Uldolmok waterway, southwestern tip off the Korean peninsula     

Sok Kuh Kang  Kyung Tae Jung  Ki-Dai Yum  Kwang-Soo Lee  Jin-Soon Park  Eun Jin Kim 《Ocean Science Journal》2012,47(4):453-463

Uldolmok waterway, located between an island off the southwestern tip of Korean peninsula and mainland, is famous for its strong tidal current that has a maximum current of about 6.0m/s. A series of field observations along with numerical modeling have been carried out in order to understand the tidal dynamics in terms of the force balance along the whole waterway and the energy balance in the narrowest part of the waterway. First, analysis of the ADCP current and the tide level variation data reveals that the tidal dynamics along the total waterway (channel) is balanced dominantly between the pressure gradient and linear bottom frictional forces, with the phase lag of sea level difference for the semi-diurnal constituents leading the current phase about by 10°. Secondly, the result of the numerical modeling reveals that the tidal energy flux vector flows toward the narrowest section, indicating that there should be related nonlinear processes. Through the numerical model experiment with multi-components, the convergence of (M₂ + S₂) tidal energy flux of 6.68 × 10⁷ Joule/s in the narrow area of the Uldolmok waterway is explained mainly by the energy consumption of 73% through the nonlinear generation of shallow water components and by the bottom frictional energy dissipation of 27%. This reveals that the remarkably strong nonlinear process dominates in the narrowest section of the Uldolmok waterway, compared with other areas, such as Yellow and East China Seas where the total M2 energy flux through the open boundary is balanced in terms of the bottom dissipation (Kang et al. 2003; Choi 1980).  相似文献   

Tintinnid species as biological indicators for monitoring intrusion of the warm oceanic waters into Korean coastal waters   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Young-Ok Kim  Kyoungsoon Shin  Pung-Guk Jang  Hyun-Woo Choi  Jae-Hoon Noh  Eun-Jin Yang  Eung Kim  Dongchull Jeon 《Ocean Science Journal》2012,47(3):161-172

This study examined seasonal and annual occurrences of warm oceanic tintinnid species in southern Korea coastal waters. The indicative species of tintinnids was monitored using three approaches: monitoring from cruises traveling from the warm pool in the western North Pacific to the Korea Strait; biweekly or monthly monitoring in the Korea Strait; and daily monitoring in the nearshore water. Annual pulses of warm oceanic indicator species were regularly observed in the Korea Strait. In September 2008 recorded a maximum species number of warm water indicators, a representative species for warm oceanic waters, Climacocylis scalaroides was simultaneously detected in the nearshore water as well as the Korea Strait. The result indicates that the greater warm water extension into Korean coastal areas was in September 2008. Sharp declines in species diversity were observed in the transitional area between neritic and Kuroshio zone in East China Sea (ECS). Epiplocyloides reticulata, reported previously as a Kuroshio indicator, was considered an ECS indicator species, as it was undetected in the western North Pacific central zone but was found abundantly in the ECS. Tintinnid species can be used as biological indicators to detect the inflow of warm oceanic waters into Korean coastal waters.  相似文献   

Assessment of immune parameters of manila clam <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ruditapes philippinarum</Emphasis> in different physiological conditions using flow cytometry     

Kyung-Il Park  Ludovic Donaghy  Hyun-Sil Kang  Hyun-Ki Hong  Young-Ok Kim  Kwang-Sik Choi 《Ocean Science Journal》2012,47(1):19-26

Cellular and humoral immune parameters are often used as biomarkers to trace environmental and physiological stresses in marine bivalves. In this study, we compared various immune parameters of Manila clams (Ruditapes philippinarum) under normal conditions and under a high level of desiccation, using flow cytometry. The immune parameters analyzed included, total hemocyte count, hemocyte mortality, hemocyte DNA damage, reactive oxygen species (ROS) production, and phagocytosis activity. Total hemocyte count, hemocyte DNA damage, and hemocyte mortality were significantly elevated among clams under high desiccation stress, while phagocytosis activity and spontaneous ROS production were significantly lower compared to those parameters of the control clams (p<0.05). These data suggest that the immune parameters analyzed in this study well reflect the physiological status of clams.  相似文献   

Closure to Discussion of paper ‘Evaluation of building period formulas for seismic design’ by Oh‐Sung Kwon and Eung Soo Kim,Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics 2010; 39(14):1569–1583     

Oh‐Sung Kwon  Eung Soo Kim 《地震工程与结构动力学》2012,41(6):1133-1135

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Subspace system identification of support‐excited structures—part I: theory and black‐box system identification     

Junhee Kim  Jerome P. Lynch 《地震工程与结构动力学》2012,41(15):2235-2251

This paper reviews the theoretical principles of subspace system identification as applied to the problem of estimating black‐box state‐space models of support‐excited structures (e.g., structures exposed to earthquakes). The work distinguishes itself from past studies by providing readers with a powerful geometric interpretation of subspace operations that relates directly to theoretical structural dynamics. To validate the performance of subspace system identification, a series of experiments are conducted on a multistory steel frame structure exposed to moderate seismic ground motions; structural response data is used off‐line to estimate black‐box state‐space models. Ground motions and structural response measurements are used by the subspace system identification method to derive a complete input–output state‐space model of the steel frame system. The modal parameters of the structure are extracted from the estimated input–output state‐space model. With the use of only structural response data, output‐only state‐space models of the system are also estimated by subspace system identification. The paper concludes with a comparison study of the modal parameters extracted from the input–output and output‐only state‐space models in order to quantify the uncertainties present in modal parameters extracted from output‐only models. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Constraining quasar host halo masses with the strength of nearby Lyα forest absorption     

Young-Rae Kim  Rupert A. C. Croft 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,387(1):377-386

Using cosmological hydrodynamic simulations, we measure the mean transmitted flux in the Lyα forest for quasar sightlines that pass near a foreground quasar. We find that the trend of absorption with pixel quasar separation distance can be fitted using a simple power-law form including the usual correlation function parameters r ₀ and γ, so that     . From the simulations, we find the relation between r ₀ and quasar host mass, and formulate this as a way to estimate quasar host dark matter halo masses, quantifying uncertainties due to cosmological and IGM parameters, and redshift errors. With this method, we examine data for ∼9000 quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 5, assuming that the effect of ionizing radiation from quasars (the so-called transverse proximity effect) is unimportant (no evidence for it is seen in the data). We find that the best-fitting host halo mass for SDSS quasars with mean redshift z = 3 and absolute G -band magnitude −27.5 is  log  M /M_⊙= 12.68^+0.81_−0.67  . We also use the Lyman-Break Galaxy (LBG) and Lyα forest data of Adelberger et al. in a similar fashion to constrain the halo mass of LBGs to be  log₁₀  M /M_⊙= 11.41^+0.54_−0.59  , a factor of ∼20 lower than the bright quasars. In addition, we study the redshift distortions of the Lyα forest around quasars, using the simulations. We use the quadrupole to monopole ratio of the quasar Lyα forest correlation function as a measure of the squashing effect. We find its dependence on halo mass difficult to measure, but find that it may be useful for constraining cosmic geometry.  相似文献