Uncertainties in European summer precipitation changes: role of large scale circulation   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Julien Boé  Laurent Terray  Christophe Cassou  Julien Najac 《Climate Dynamics》2009,33(2-3):265-276

Climate models suggest that anthropogenic emissions are likely to induce an important drying during summer over most of Europe in the late 21st century. However, the amplitude of the associated decrease in precipitation strongly varies among the different climate models. In order to reduce this spread, it is first necessary to identify its causes and the associated physical mechanisms. Consequently, the focus of this paper is to better estimate the role of large scale circulation (LSC) in precipitation changes over Europe using a multi-model framework and then to characterize the LSC changes using the weather regime paradigm. We show that LSC changes directly lead to a decrease of precipitation over northwestern Europe. This circulation-driven decrease in rainfall is mainly linked to an increase (decrease) of the occurrence of positive (negative) phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation regime. LSC is also responsible for a significant part of the models spread in precipitation changes over these regions. Over southern Europe, the role of LSC changes on multi-model mean precipitation changes is generally weak. We also show that the precipitation anomalies directly induced by LSC modifications seem to be further amplified through local feedbacks.  相似文献   

Luciola hypertelescope space observatory: versatile, upgradable high-resolution imaging, from stars to deep-field cosmology     

Antoine Labeyrie  Hervé Le Coroller  Julien Dejonghe  Olivier Lardière  Claude Aime  Kjetil Dohlen  Denis Mourard  Richard Lyon  Kenneth G. Carpenter 《Experimental Astronomy》2009,23(1):463-490

Luciola is a large (1 km) “multi-aperture densified-pupil imaging interferometer”, or “hypertelescope” employing many small apertures, rather than a few large ones, for obtaining direct snapshot images with a high information content. A diluted collector mirror, deployed in space as a flotilla of small mirrors, focuses a sky image which is exploited by several beam-combiner spaceships. Each contains a “pupil densifier” micro-lens array to avoid the diffractive spread and image attenuation caused by the small sub-apertures. The elucidation of hypertelescope imaging properties during the last decade has shown that many small apertures tend to be far more efficient, regarding the science yield, than a few large ones providing a comparable collecting area. For similar underlying physical reasons, radio-astronomy has also evolved in the direction of many-antenna systems such as the proposed Low Frequency Array having “hundreds of thousands of individual receivers”. With its high limiting magnitude, reaching the m _v?=?30 limit of HST when 100 collectors of 25 cm will match its collecting area, high-resolution direct imaging in multiple channels, broad spectral coverage from the 1,200 Å ultra-violet to the 20 μm infra-red, apodization, coronagraphic and spectroscopic capabilities, the proposed hypertelescope observatory addresses very broad and innovative science covering different areas of ESA’s Cosmic Vision program. In the initial phase, a focal spacecraft covering the UV to near IR spectral range of EMCCD photon-counting cameras (currently 200 to 1,000 nm), will image details on the surface of many stars, as well as their environment, including multiple stars and clusters. Spectra will be obtained for each resel. It will also image neutron star, black-hole and micro-quasar candidates, as well as active galactic nuclei, quasars, gravitational lenses, and other Cosmic Vision targets observable with the initial modest crowding limit. With subsequent upgrade missions, the spectral coverage can be extended from 120 nm to 20 μm, using four detectors carried by two to four focal spacecraft. The number of collector mirrors in the flotilla can also be increased from 12 to 100 and possibly 1,000. The imaging and spectroscopy of habitable exoplanets in the mid infra-red then becomes feasible once the collecting area reaches 6 m², using a specialized mid infra-red focal spacecraft. Calculations (Boccaletti et al., Icarus 145, 628–636, 2000) have shown that hypertelescope coronagraphy has unequalled sensitivity for detecting, at mid infra-red wavelengths, faint exoplanets within the exo-zodiacal glare. Later upgrades will enable the more difficult imaging and spectroscopy of these faint objects at visible wavelengths, using refined techniques of adaptive coronagraphy (Labeyrie and Le Coroller 2004). Together, the infra-red and visible spectral data carry rich information on the possible presence of life. The close environment of the central black-hole in the Milky Way will be imageable with unprecedented detail in the near infra-red. Cosmological imaging of remote galaxies at the limit of the known universe is also expected, from the ultra-violet to the near infra-red, following the first upgrade, and with greatly increasing sensitivity through successive upgrades. These areas will indeed greatly benefit from the upgrades, in terms of dynamic range, limiting complexity of the objects to be imaged, size of the elementary “Direct Imaging Field”, and limiting magnitude, approaching that of an 8-m space telescope when 1,000 apertures of 25 cm are installed. Similar gains will occur for addressing fundamental problems in physics and cosmology, particularly when observing neutron stars and black holes, single or binary, including the giant black holes, with accretion disks and jets, in active galactic nuclei beyond the Milky Way. Gravitational lensing and micro-lensing patterns, including time-variable patterns and perhaps millisecond lensing flashes which may be beamed by diffraction from sub-stellar masses at sub-parsec distances (Labeyrie, Astron Astrophys 284, 689, 1994), will also be observable initially in the favourable cases, and upgrades will greatly improve the number of observable objects. The observability of gravitational waves emitted by binary lensing masses, in the form of modulated lensing patterns, is a debated issue (Ragazzoni et al., MNRAS 345, 100–110, 2003) but will also become addressable observationally. The technology readiness of Luciola approaches levels where low-orbit testing and stepwise implementation will become feasible in the 2015–2025 time frame. For the following decades beyond 2020, once accurate formation flying techniques will be mastered, much larger hypertelescopes such as the proposed 100 km Exo-Earth Imager and the 100,000 km Neutron Star Imager should also become feasible. Luciola is therefore also seen as a precursor toward such very powerful instruments.  相似文献   

A chemical and thermodynamic model of oil generation in hydrocarbon source rocks     

Harold C. Helgeson  Laurent Richard  William F. McKenzie  Alexandra Schmitt 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(3):594-7350

Thermodynamic calculations and Gibbs free energy minimization computer experiments strongly support the hypothesis that kerogen maturation and oil generation are inevitable consequences of oxidation/reduction disproportionation reactions caused by prograde metamorphism of hydrocarbon source rocks with increasing depth of burial.These experiments indicate that oxygen and hydrogen are conserved in the process.Accordingly, if water is stable and present in the source rock at temperatures ?25 but ?100 °C along a typical US Gulf Coast geotherm, immature (reduced) kerogen with a given atomic hydrogen to carbon ratio (H/C) melts incongruently with increasing temperature and depth of burial to produce a metastable equilibrium phase assemblage consisting of naphthenic/biomarker-rich crude oil, a type-II/III kerogen with an atomic hydrogen/carbon ratio (H/C) of ∼1, and water. Hence, this incongruent melting process promotes diagenetic reaction of detritus in the source rock to form authigenic mineral assemblages.However, in the water-absent region of the system CHO (which is extensive), any water initially present or subsequently entering the source rock is consumed by reaction with the most mature kerogen with the lowest H/C it encounters to form CO₂ gas and a new kerogen with higher H/C and O/C, both of which are in metastable equilibrium with one another.This hydrolytic disproportionation process progressively increases both the concentration of the solute in the aqueous phase, and the oil generation potential of the source rock; i.e., the new kerogen can then produce more crude oil.Petroleum is generated with increasing temperature and depth of burial of hydrocarbon source rocks in which water is not stable in the system CHO by a series of irreversible disproportionation reactions in which kerogens with higher (H/C)s melt incongruently to produce metastable equilibrium assemblages consisting of crude oil, CO₂ gas, and a more mature (oxidized) kerogen with a lower H/C which in turn melts incongruently with further burial to produce more crude oil, CO₂ gas, and a kerogen with a lower H/C and so forth.The petroleum generated in the process progresses from heavy naphthenic crude oils at low temperatures to mature petroleum at ∼150 °C. For example, the results of Computer Experiment 27 (see below) indicate that the overall incongruent melting reaction in the water-absent region of the system C-H-O at 150 °C and a depth of ∼4.3 km of an immature type-II/III kerogen with a bulk composition represented by C₂₉₂H₂₈₈O_12(c) to produce a mature (oxidized) kerogen represented by C₁₂₈H₆₈O_7(c), together with a typical crude oil with an average metastable equilibrium composition corresponding to C_8.8H_16.9 (C_8.8H_16.9(l)) and CO₂ gas (CO_2(g)) can be described by writing