An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies          下载免费PDF全文

WU Tongwen  SONG Lianchun  LI Weiping  WANG Zaizhi  ZHANG Hu  XIN Xiaoge  ZHANG Yanwu  ZHANG Li  LI Jianglong  WU Fanghu  LIU Yiming  ZHANG Fang  SHI Xueli  CHU Min  ZHANG Jie  FANG Yongjie  WANG Fang  LU Yixiong  LIU Xiangwen  WEI Min  LIU Qianxi  ZHOU Wenyan  DONG Min  ZHAO Qigeng  JI Jinjun  Laurent LI  ZHOU Mingyu 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2014,28(1):34-56

This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM) and its four component models(atmosphere,land surface,ocean,and sea ice).Two recent versions are described:BCC-CSM1.1 with coarse resolution(approximately 2.8125°×2.8125°) and BCC-CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution(approximately 1.125°×1.125°).Both versions are fully coupled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation.Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO_2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed.Simulations using these two versions of the BCC-CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five(CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report(AR5).These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections.Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) are presented and validated,with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales.Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed.Both BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models.Preliminary analyses indicate that the higher resolution in BCC-CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC-CSMl.l,particularly on regional scales.  相似文献   

北京气候中心气候系统模式研发进展——在气候变化研究中的应用   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

吴统文  宋连春  李伟平  王在志  张华  辛晓歌  张艳武  张莉  李江龙  吴方华  刘一鸣  张芳  史学丽  储敏  张洁  房永杰  汪方  路屹雄  刘向文  魏敏  刘茜霞  周文艳  董敏  赵其庚  季劲钧  Laurent Li  周明煜 《气象学报》2014,72(1):12-29

较全面地介绍了北京气候中心气候系统模式(BCC_CSM)研发所取得的一些进展及其在气候变化研究中的应用,重点介绍了全球近280 km较低分辨率的全球海-陆-气-冰-生物多圈层耦合的气候系统模式BCC_CSM1.1和110 km中等大气分辨率的BCC_CSM1.1(m),以及大气、陆面、海洋、海冰各分量模式的发展。BCC_CSM1.1和BCC_CSM1.1(m)气候系统模式均包含了全球碳循环和动态植被过程。当给定全球人类活动导致的碳源排放后,就可以模拟和预估人类活动对气候变化的影响。BCC_CSM1.1和BCC_CSM1.1(m)已应用于IPCC AR5模式比较,为中外开展气候变化机理分析和未来气候变化预估提供了大量的试验数据。还介绍了BCC_CSM1.1和BCC_CSM1.1(m)参与国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)的大量试验分析评估结果,BCC_CSM能够较好地模拟20世纪气温和降水等气候平均态和季节变化特征,以及近1000年的历史气候变化,所预估的未来100年气候变化与国际上其他模式的CMIP5试验预估结果相当。初步的分析表明,分辨率相对高的BCC_CSM1.1(m)在区域气候平均态的模拟上优于分辨率较低的BCC_CSM1.1。  相似文献   

Ocean heat transport into the Arctic in the twentieth and twenty-first century in EC-Earth   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Torben Koenigk  Laurent Brodeau 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(11-12):3101-3120

The ocean heat transport into the Arctic and the heat budget of the Barents Sea are analyzed in an ensemble of historical and future climate simulations performed with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth. The zonally integrated northward heat flux in the ocean at 70°N is strongly enhanced and compensates for a reduction of its atmospheric counterpart in the twenty first century. Although an increase in the northward heat transport occurs through all of Fram Strait, Canadian Archipelago, Bering Strait and Barents Sea Opening, it is the latter which dominates the increase in ocean heat transport into the Arctic. Increased temperature of the northward transported Atlantic water masses are the main reason for the enhancement of the ocean heat transport. The natural variability in the heat transport into the Barents Sea is caused to the same extent by variations in temperature and volume transport. Large ocean heat transports lead to reduced ice and higher atmospheric temperature in the Barents Sea area and are related to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The net ocean heat transport into the Barents Sea grows until about year 2050. Thereafter, both heat and volume fluxes out of the Barents Sea through the section between Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya are strongly enhanced and compensate for all further increase in the inflow through the Barents Sea Opening. Most of the heat transported by the ocean into the Barents Sea is passed to the atmosphere and contributes to warming of the atmosphere and Arctic temperature amplification. Latent and sensible heat fluxes are enhanced. Net surface long-wave and solar radiation are enhanced upward and downward, respectively and are almost compensating each other. We find that the changes in the surface heat fluxes are mainly caused by the vanishing sea ice in the twenty first century. The increasing ocean heat transport leads to enhanced bottom ice melt and to an extension of the area with bottom ice melt further northward. However, no indication for a substantial impact of the increased heat transport on ice melt in the Central Arctic is found. Most of the heat that is not passed to the atmosphere in the Barents Sea is stored in the Arctic intermediate layer of Atlantic water, which is increasingly pronounced in the twenty first century.  相似文献   

Numerical modeling and neural networks to identify model parameters from piezocone tests: I. FEM analysis of penetration in two‐phase continuum     

Rafał F. Obrzud  Andrzej Truty  Laurent Vulliet 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2011,35(16):1703-1730

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A 20cm 2 CCD mosaic camera for a dark matter search part II : Electronics,data acquisition and performance     

Arnaud  M.  Aubourg  E.  Bareyre  P.  Br';ehin  S.  Caridroit  R.  de Kat  J.  Dispau  G.  Djidi  K.  Gros  M.  Lachièze-Rey  M.  Laigneau  Y.  Laurent  B.  Lesquoy  E.  Lavocat  Ph.  Magneville  C.  Mazeau  B.  Milsztajn  A.  Moscoso  L.  Pasquaud  J.  Paul  B.  Perrin  P.  Petibon  J.  Piret  Y.  Queinnec  F.  Rich  J.  Spiro  M.  de Trogoff  J.  Vigroux  L.  Zylberajch  S.  Ansari  R.  Cavalier  F.  Moniez  M.  Beaulieu  J. P.  Ferlet  R.  Grison  Ph.  Vidal-Madjar  A.  Adrianzyk  G.  Berger  J. P.  Burnage  R.  Delclite  J. C.  Kohler  D.  Magnan  R.  Richaud  A.  Guibert  J.  Moreau  O.  Tajahmady  F.  Baranne  A.  Maurice  E.  Prévôt  L.  Gry  C. 《Experimental Astronomy》1994,4(3-4):279-296

Conclusion To summarize, the readout and the control system of the CCD mosaic camera are running since December 1991 at the La Silla Observatory (ESO). The overall performance of the camera has been good. About 12000 pictures (data and flat-fields) have been successfully registered up to now. We will report in the near future preliminary scientific results of the EROS experiment.  相似文献   

Diagenetic evolution of Aptian evaporites in the Namibe Basin (south‐west Angola)          下载免费PDF全文

Laurent Gindre‐Chanu  John K. Warren  Cai Puigdefabregas  Ian R. Sharp  David C. P. Peacock  Roger Swart  Ragnar Poulsen  Hercinda Ferreira  Lourenco Henrique 《Sedimentology》2015,62(1):204-233

The widespread and dissected nature of the Angolan gypsiferous salt residuals offers a uniquely detailed view of the lateral and vertical relations inherent to secondary evaporite textures, which typify exhumed salt masses worldwide. Such secondary textures are sometimes misinterpreted as primary evaporite textures. Thin, metre‐scale and patchy, dome‐like gypsum accumulations are well‐exposed within strongly incised present‐day river valleys along the eastern margin of the Namibe and Benguela basins (south‐west Angola). These sections are time equivalent to the main basinward subsurface evaporites (Aptian Loeme Formation) which mostly consist of halite. The gypsum (here called the Bambata Formation) is interpreted to represent the final residual product of fractional dissolution and recrystallization of the halite mass that occurred during Late Cretaceous margin uplift and continues today. This halite underwent multiple episodes of diagenetic alteration between its deposition and its final exhumation, leading to the formation of various secondary gypsum fabrics and solution‐related karst and breccia textures that typify the current evaporite outcrop. Four different diagenetic gypsum fabrics are defined: thinly bedded alabastrine, nodular alabastrine, displacive selenite rosettes and fibrous satin‐spar gypsum. Current arid conditions are responsible for a thin weathered crust developed at the top of the outcropping gypsum, but the fabrics in the main core of the current at‐surface evaporite unit mostly formed during the telogenetic stage of uplift prior to complete subaerial exposure. Alteration occurred as various dissolving and rehydrating saline minerals encountered shallow aquifers in the active phreatic and vadose zones. Geomorphological and petrographic analyses, mostly based on the cross‐cutting relations and crystallographic patterns in the outcrop, are used to propose a sequence of formation of these different fabrics.  相似文献   

Projection and possible causes of summer precipitation in eastern China using self-organizing map     

Mei Li  Zhihong Jiang  Pu Zhou  Herv&#; Le Treut  Laurent Li 《Climate Dynamics》2020,54(5):2815-2830

Self-organizing map (SOM) is used to simulate summer daily precipitation over the Yangtze–Huaihe river basin in Eastern China, including future projections. SOM shows good behaviors in terms of probability distribution of daily rainfall and spatial distribution of rainfall indices, as well as consistency of multi-model simulations. Under RCP4.5 Scenario, daily rainfall at most sites (63%) is projected to shift towards larger values. For the early 21st century (2016–2035), precipitation in the central basin increases, yet decreases occur over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as well as a part of its southeast area. For the late 21st century (2081–2100), the mean precipitation and extreme indices experience an overall increase except for a few southeast stations. The total precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in its south area is projected to increase from 7% at 1.5 °C global warming to 11% at 2 °C, while the intensity enhancement is more significant in southern and western sites of the domain. A clustering allows to regroup all SOM nodes into four distinct regimes. Such regional synoptic regimes show remarkable stability for future climate. The overall intensification of precipitation in future climate is linked to the occurrence-frequency rise of a wet regime which brings longitudinally closer the South Asia High (eastward extended) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (westward extended), as well as the reduction of a dry pattern which makes the two atmospheric centers of action move away from each other.  相似文献   

Climate variability and trends in downscaled high-resolution simulations and projections over Metropolitan France   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Robert Vautard  Thomas Noël  Laurent Li  Mathieu Vrac  Eric Martin  Philippe Dandin  Julien Cattiaux  Sylvie Joussaume 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(5-6):1419-1437

In order to fulfill the society demand for climate information at the spatial scale allowing impact studies, long-term high-resolution climate simulations are produced, over an area covering metropolitan France. One of the major goals of this article is to investigate whether such simulations appropriately simulate the spatial and temporal variability of the current climate, using two simulation chains. These start from the global IPSL-CM4 climate model, using two regional models (LMDz and MM5) at moderate resolution (15–20 km), followed with a statistical downscaling method in order to reach a target resolution of 8 km. The statistical downscaling technique includes a non-parametric method that corrects the distribution by using high-resolution analyses over France. First the uncorrected simulations are evaluated against a set of high-resolution analyses, with a focus on temperature and precipitation. Uncorrected downscaled temperatures suffer from a cold bias that is present in the global model as well. Precipitations biases have a season- and model-dependent behavior. Dynamical models overestimate rainfall but with different patterns and amplitude, but both have underestimations in the South-Eastern area (Cevennes mountains) in winter. A variance decomposition shows that uncorrected simulations fairly well capture observed variances from inter-annual to high-frequency intra-seasonal time scales. After correction, distributions match with analyses by construction, but it is shown that spatial coherence, persistence properties of warm, cold and dry episodes also match to a certain extent. Another aim of the article is to describe the changes for future climate obtained using these simulations under Scenario A1B. Results are presented on the changes between current and mid-term future (2021–2050) averages and variability over France. Interestingly, even though the same global climate model is used at the boundaries, regional climate change responses from the two models significantly differ.  相似文献   

Large-Scale Structures over a Single Street Canyon Immersed in an Urban-Type Boundary Layer   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Laurent Perret  Eric Savory 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,148(1):111-131

An analysis of the dynamics of the flow over a street canyon immersed in an atmospheric boundary layer is presented, using particle image velocimetry measurements in a wind tunnel. Care was taken to generate a 1:200 model scale urban type boundary layer that is correctly scaled to the size of the canyon buildings. Using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) of the velocity field and conditional averaging techniques, it is first shown that the flow above the opening of the canyon consists of a shear layer separating from the upstream obstacle, animated by a coherent flapping motion and generating large-scale vortical structures. These structures are alternately injected into the canyon or shed off the obstacle into the outer flow. It is shown that unsteady fluid exchanges between the canyon and the outer flow are mainly driven by the shear layer. Finally, using POD, the non-linear interaction between the large-scale structures of the oncoming atmospheric boundary layer and the flow over the canyon is demonstrated.  相似文献   

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society     

Austin H. Becker  Michele Acciaro  Regina Asariotis  Edgard Cabrera  Laurent Cretegny  Philippe Crist  Miguel Esteban  Andrew Mather  Steve Messner  Susumu Naruse  Adolf K. Y. Ng  Stefan Rahmstorf  Michael Savonis  Dong-Wook Song  Vladimir Stenek  Adonis F. Velegrakis 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):683-695

With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation.  相似文献