A simple model of pressure build-up caused by porosity reduction during burial     

Magnus Wangen 《Geophysical Journal International》1997,130(3):757-764

The fluid-pressure build-up due to porosity reduction in sedimentary basins during burial is studied. The model assumes that the void ratio decreases exponentially with depth, and that the permeability is proportional to the void ratio to an arbitrary exponent. Simple analytical solutions are obtained for the Darcy velocity and the fluid excess pressure. The pressure build-up during burial is studied with these solutions, and it is found to be inversely proportional to the gravity number. The importance of the permeability exponents on the fluid pressure is also studied. Gravity numbers much less than 1 are shown to yield high excess pressures during burial. A reasonable approximation for the maximum Darcy velocity is found to be the product of the surface void ratio and the burial rate. Hydrofracturing is discussed in relation to the pressure build-up, and cases characterized by gravity numbers much less than 1 are found to yield hydrofracturing over large depth ranges. It is suggested that the average permeability of hydrofractured sediments during burial corresponds to a gravity number equal to 1.  相似文献   

Lessons learned from Eastern Africa: the development of policy on ICZM at national and regional levels     

Magnus A.K. Ngoile  O. Linden 《Ocean & Coastal Management》1997,37(3):295-318

Coastal zones of Eastern Africa are endowed with a diversity of life forms and resources which support large populations of coastal communities. The economies of the countries in the region are dependent on these resources in the form of fisheries and coastal forest products, tourism, shipways and coastal facilities such as ports, industries and urban centers.Population growth, especially in coastal urban centers is increasing the demand for coastal and marine resources. In addition, poverty, lack of awareness and inadequate management have resulted in over exploitation of coastal and marine resources, habitat destruction including shoreline erosion as well as marine pollution. The rate of resource depletion and environmental degradation is on the increase. There is an urgent need for instituting management measure that will reverse the current trend.The governments in the region have accepted and are committed to the implementation of Integrated coastal management (ICZM) as an effective mechanism for addressing and resolving the multiplicity of issues experienced in coastal areas through sectoral coordination and collaborative approaches. However, the process has just begun and there are a number of ICZM initiatives in progress at local, national and regional levels. This paper presents the issues of the coastal zone and reviews some of the progress made to date in the implementation of ICZM.  相似文献   

Conservation of genetic variation in harvested salmon populations     

Hindar  Kjetil; Tufto  Jarle; Saettem  Leif Magnus; Balstad  Torveig 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2004,61(8):1389-1397

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Observation-based evaluation of surface wave effects on currents and trajectory forecasts     

R&#;hrs  Johannes  Christensen  Kai H&#;kon  Hole  Lars Robert  Brostr&#;m  G&#;ran  Drivdal  Magnus  Sundby  Svein 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(10):1519-1533

Knowledge of upper ocean currents is needed for trajectory forecasts and is essential for search and rescue operations and oil spill mitigation. This paper addresses effects of surface waves on ocean currents and drifter trajectories using in situ observations. The data set includes colocated measurements of directional wave spectra from a wave rider buoy, ocean currents measured by acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs), as well as data from two types of tracking buoys that sample the currents at two different depths. The ADCP measures the Eulerian current at one point, as modelled by an ocean general circulation model, while the tracking buoys are advected by the Lagrangian current that includes the wave-induced Stokes drift. Based on our observations, we assess the importance of two different wave effects: (a) forcing of the ocean current by wave-induced surface fluxes and the Coriolis–Stokes force, and (b) advection of surface drifters by wave motion, that is the Stokes drift. Recent theoretical developments provide a framework for including these wave effects in ocean model systems. The order of magnitude of the Stokes drift is the same as the Eulerian current judging from the available data. The wave-induced momentum and turbulent kinetic energy fluxes are estimated and shown to be significant. Similarly, the wave-induced Coriolis–Stokes force is significant over time scales related to the inertial period. Surface drifter trajectories were analysed and could be reproduced using the observations of currents, waves and wind. Waves were found to have a significant contribution to the trajectories, and we conclude that adding wave effects in ocean model systems is likely to increase predictability of surface drifter trajectories. The relative importance of the Stokes drift was twice as large as the direct wind drag for the used surface drifter.

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Estimation of winter leaf area index and sky view fraction for snow modelling in boreal coniferous forests: consequences on snow mass and energy balance     

Sirpa Rasmus  David Gustafsson  Harri Koivusalo  Ari Laurén  Achim Grelle  Olli‐Kalle Kauppinen  Ola Lagnvall  Anders Lindroth  Kai Rasmus  Magnus Svensson  Per Weslien 《水文研究》2013,27(20):2876-2891

Leaf area index (LAI) and canopy coverage are important parameters when modelling snow process in coniferous forests, controlling interception and transmitting radiation. Estimates of LAI and sky view factor show large variability depending on the estimation method used, and it is not clear how this is reflected in the calculated snow processes beneath the canopy. In this study, the winter LAI and sky view fraction were estimated using different optical and biomass‐based approximations in several boreal coniferous forest stands in Fennoscandia with different stand density, age and site latitude. The biomass‐based estimate of LAI derived from forest inventory data was close to the values derived from the optical measurements at most sites, suggesting that forest inventory data can be used as input to snow hydrological modelling. Heterogeneity of tree species and site fertility, as well as edge effects between different forest compartments, caused differences in the LAI estimates at some sites. A snow energy and mass balance model (SNOWPACK) was applied to detect how the differences in the estimated values of the winter LAI and sky view fraction were reflected in simulated snow processes. In the simulations, an increase in LAI and a decrease in sky view fraction changed the snow surface energy balance by decreasing shortwave radiation input and increasing longwave radiation input. Changes in LAI and sky view fraction affected directly snow accumulation through altered throughfall fraction and indirectly snowmelt through the changed surface energy balance. Changes in LAI and sky view fraction had a greater impact on mean incoming radiation beneath the canopy than on other energy fluxes. Snowmelt was affected more than snow accumulation. The effect of canopy parameters on evaporation loss from intercepted snow was comparable with the effect of variation in governing meteorological variables such as precipitation intensity and air temperature. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Intelligent ship traffic monitoring for oil spill prevention: risk based decision support building on AIS     

Eide MS  Endresen O  Brett PO  Ervik JL  Røang K 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(2):145-148

The paper describes a model, which estimates the risk levels of individual crude oil tankers. The intended use of the model, which is ready for trial implementation at The Norwegian Coastal Administrations new Vard? VTS (Vessel Traffic Service) centre, is to facilitate the comparison of ships and to support a risk based decision on which ships to focus attention on. For a VTS operator, tasked with monitoring hundreds of ships, this is a valuable decision support tool. The model answers the question, "Which ships are likely to produce an oil spill accident, and how much is it likely to spill?".  相似文献   

Prevention of oil spill from shipping by modelling of dynamic risk   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Eide MS  Endresen O  Breivik O  Brude OW  Ellingsen IH  Røang K  Hauge J  Brett PO 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(10):1619-1633

This paper presents a new dynamic environmental risk model, with intended use within a new, dynamical approach for risk based ship traffic prioritisation. The philosophy behind this newly developed approach is that shipping risk can be reduced by directing efforts towards ships and areas that have been identified as high priority (high risk), prior to a potential accident. The risk model proposed in this paper separates itself from previous models by drawing on available information on dynamic factors and by focusing on the ship's surroundings. The model estimates the environmental risk of drift grounding accidents for oil tankers in real time and in forecast mode, combining the probability of grounding with oil spill impact on the coastline. Results show that the inherent dynamic risk introduced by an oil tanker sailing along the North Norwegian coast depends, not surprisingly, significantly upon wind and ocean currents, as well as tug position and cargo oil type. Results of this study indicate that the risk model is well suited for real time risk assessment, and effectively separates low risk and high risk situations. The model is well suited as a tool to prioritise oil tankers and coastal segments. This enables dynamic risk based positioning of tugs, using both real-time and projected risk, for effective support in case of a drifting ship situation.  相似文献   

Inherited Landforms and Glacial Impact of Different Palaeosurfaces in Southwest Sweden   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Magnus Johansson  Mats Olvmo  & Karna Lidmar-Bergström 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2001,83(1-2):67-89

Landforms are used as analytical tools to separate inherited features from the glacial impact on Precambrian basement rocks in southwest Sweden. The study covers three different palaeosurfaces, the sub-Cambrian peneplain (relative relief (r.r.) 0–20 m) with the character of a pediplain, an uplifted and dissected part of the sub-Cambrian peneplain (r.r. 5–40 m) and an etch-surface (r.r. 20–135 m), presumably sub-Mesozoic. The surfaces were recently re-exposed, probably due to a Neogene upheaval with some pre-glacial reshaping. Strong structural control and no alignment with glacial erosional directions other than those coinciding with structures, are arguments for etch processes as a most important agent for relief differentiation. This is strengthened by the occurrence of saprolite residues and etchforms in protected positions.
The glacial reshaping of the sub-Cambrian flat bedrock surfaces is negligible. The glacial impact becomes more evident in the uplifted and dissected parts of the peneplain and within the hilly sub-Mesozoic surface. The higher the initial relief the more effect of glacial erosion on individual hills, both on the abrading side, with formation of roches moutonnées, and on the plucking side. Detailed etchforms are preserved in protected positions in spite of erosion by a clearly wet-based ice. The magnitude of the Pleistocene glacial erosion is considerably less than the amplitude of the palaeorelief in the entire area.
Landscapes of areal glacial scouring have been described as comprising irregular depressions with intervening bosses scraped by ice and labelled 'knock and lochan' topography, but we suggest that an etched bedrock surface is a prerequisite for this type of landscape to develop.  相似文献   

From well-test data to input to stochastic continuum models: effect of the variable support scale of the hydraulic data     

Magnus Odén  Auli Niemi 《Hydrogeology Journal》2006,14(8):1409-1422

The question of how well the true underlying hydraulic conductivity statistics of heterogeneous media are captured by well tests is addressed. The hydraulic conductivity value and the corresponding support volume associated with a theoretical well are correlated, causing a bias in the statistics derived from well-test analyses. Statistics derived from numerically simulated well tests are compared with the known underlying conductivity statistics and the results indicate an under-prediction by simulations at higher hydraulic conductivities. The deviation starts at about mean conductivity and can be as large as an order of magnitude, with the conductivity in the vicinity of the well defining the upper boundary. In other words, the conductivity value interpreted from the well test cannot be larger than the value that the well test first encounters. Consequently, for data in this simulation exercise, the standard deviation, if only determined for the upper range of the conductivity values, would be underestimated by a factor of 1.6–2. While this specific range is likely to depend on the scale and degree of the underlying heterogeneity as well as the duration of the test, the results should be indicative of a more general behaviour and are likely to occur in other heterogeneous data as well.

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Resumen Se plantea la pregunta de qué tan bien son representadas en las pruebas de pozo, las estadísticas reales de conductividad hidráulica subyacente de medios heterogéneos. Son correlacionados el valor de conductividad hidráulica y el volumen de apoyo correspondiente asociado con un pozo teórico, causando una distorsión en las estadísticas derivadas del análisis de la prueba de pozo. Las estadísticas derivadas de las pruebas de pozo simuladas numéricamente son comparadas con las estadísticas de conductividad subyacente conocidas, y los resultados indican una sub-predicción por las simulaciones hechas con conductividades hidráulicas más altas. La desviación empieza casi con la conductividad media y puede ser tan grande como un orden de magnitud, con la conductividad en la vecindad del pozo definiendo el límite superior. En otras palabras, el valor de conductividad interpretado a partir de la prueba del pozo no puede ser más grande que el valor que la prueba de pozo encuentre primero. Por consiguiente, para los datos en este ejercicio de simulación, la desviación estándar, si solamente fue determinada para el rango superior de los valores de conductividad, se subestimaría en un factor de 1.6–2. Mientras es probable que este rango específico dependa de la escala y del grado de la heterogeneidad subyacente, así como de la duración de la prueba, los resultados deben ser indicativos de un comportamiento más general y son probables también de ocurrir en otros datos heterogéneos.

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Résumé Nous posons ici la question de savoir dans quelle mesure les statistiques de la conductivité hydraulique des milieux hétérogènes pourrait être révélée par des essais de puits. La valeur de la conductivité hydraulique et le volume capté correspondant sont corrélés, créant un biais dans l’analyse des statistiques dérivées des essais de puits. Les statistiques en provenance de simulations numériques d’essais de puits sont comparées avec les statistiques de conductivités connues et les résultats indiquent une sous-évaluation par les simulations, pour les conductivités hydrauliques les plus élevées: la déviation commence à partir de la valeur moyenne de la conductivité et peut atteindre la magnitude d’un ordre de grandeur en considérant la conductivité mesurée au voisinage du puits. Autrement dit, la valeur de la conductivité interprétée via l’essais de pompage ne peut être plus importante que les premières valeurs rencontrées. Par conséquence, pour les données de cet exercice de simulation, la déviation standard sera sous-estimée d’un facteur compris entre 1.6–2 pour les valeurs les plus élevées. Tandis que l’échelle spécifique de valeurs est dépendante de l’échelle et du degré de l’hétérogénéité souterraine, de même que de la durée du test, les résultats pourraient être indicatifs d’un comportement plus général et seraient sans doute observables dans d’autres cas de données hétérogènes.

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Bioaccumulation of radiocaesium in Arctic seals     

Carroll J  Wolkers H  Andersen M  Rissanen K 《Marine pollution bulletin》2002,44(12):1366-1371

Seals are high trophic level feeders that bioaccumulate many contaminants to a greater degree than most lower trophic level organisms. Their trophic status in the marine food web and wide-spread distribution make seals useful sentinels of arctic environmental change. The purpose of this investigation is to document the levels and bioaccumulation potential of radiocaesium in high latitude seal species for which data have not previously been available. The study was carried out on harp, ringed, and bearded seals caught north of the island archipelago of Svalbard (82°N) in 1999. The results are then compared with previous studies in order to elucidate factors responsible for bioaccumulation in Arctic seals. Concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs were determined in muscle, liver and kidney samples from a total of 10 juvenile and one adult seal. The mean concentration in muscle samples for all animals was 0.23±0.045 Bq/kg f.w. ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in both liver and kidney samples were near detection limits (≈0.2 Bq/kg f.w.). The results are consistent with previous studies indicating low levels of radiocaesium in Arctic seals in response to a long term trend of decreasing levels of ¹³⁷Cs in the Barents Sea region. Bioconcentration factors (BCFs) estimated for seals from NE Svalbard are low, ranging from 34 to 130. Comparing these values with reported BCFs for Greenland seals from other sectors of the European Arctic, we suggest that the combination of physiological and ecological factors on radiocaesium bioaccumulation is comparable among different Arctic seal populations. The application of this work to Arctic monitoring and assessment programs is discussed.  相似文献