Dynamical seasonal prediction using the global environmental multiscale model with a variable resolution modeling approach     

Marko Markovic  Hai Lin  Katja Winger 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(7-8):1885-1904

In this work we evaluate seasonal forecasts performed with the global environmental multiscale model (GEM) using a variable resolution approach and with a high-resolution region over different geographical locations. Therefore, using two grid positions, one over North America and the other over the tropical Pacific-eastern Indian Ocean, we compare the seasonal predictions performed with the variable resolution approach with seasonal forecast performed with the uniform grid GEM model. For each model configuration, a ten-member ensemble forecast of 4?months is performed starting from the first of December of selected ENSO winters between 1982 and 2000. The sea surface temperature anomaly of the month preceding the forecast (November) is persisted throughout the forecast period. There is not enough evidence to indicate that a Stretch-Grid configuration has a clear advantage in seasonal prediction compared to a Uniform-Grid configuration. Forecasts with highly resolved grids placed over North America have more accurate seasonal mean anomalies and more skill in representing near surface temperature over the North American continent. For 500-hPa geopotential height, however, no configuration stands out to be consistently superior in forecasting the ENSO related seasonal mean anomalies and skill score.  相似文献   

Analytical modelling of wintertime coastal jets in the Adriatic Sea     

Martin Lazar  Marko Pavić  Zoran Pasarić  Mirko Orlić 《Continental Shelf Research》2007

Two diagnostic models, reproducing circulation generated in a marginal sea by variable density, have been developed. The models’ domain is a 2D transverse section for which analytical solutions have been obtained. They describe the winter situation in the northern Adriatic, with a strong vertical mixing present and the density maximum dominating the centre of the basin. Both models employ Boussinesq-type parametrisation of friction and linear slip at the bottom. The first model allows for frictional departure from hydrostatic equilibrium and includes vertical friction only. The second one is hydrostatic but allows for lateral friction as well. The results obtained by the two models are similar and to some extent dependent on the vertical and bottom friction. They reproduce several well known characteristics of the Adriatic circulation (cyclonic surface flow, downwelling in the central and larger part of the basin compensated by upwelling in the coastal zone) but also predict some phenomena that are still not well understood. A conspicuous feature of the model results are coastal jets, which were observed in the Adriatic on several occasions. The present models show that the distance of jets from the coasts depends on lateral friction: it is found to vary from 1 up to 10 km on the Italian side and between 2 and 15 km on the Croatian side. Both models reproduce the west–east asymmetry, with the wider current on the east side of the basin. The asymmetry is a subject on which conflicting empirical results exist in the Adriatic. In the two models cyclonic flow occupies the whole water column, which disagrees with some recent theoretical findings of the near-bottom anticyclonic flow and thus leaves the issue open.  相似文献   

A ~565 Ma old glaciation in the Ediacaran of peri-Gondwanan West Africa     

Linnemann  Ulf  Pidal  Agustín Pieren  Hofmann  Mandy  Drost  Kerstin  Quesada  Cecilio  Gerdes  Axel  Marko  Linda  Gärtner  Andreas  Zieger  Johannes  Ulrich  Jens  Krause  Rita  Vickers-Rich  Patricia  Horak  Jana 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2018,107(3):885-911

International Journal of Earth Sciences - In the Cadomian orogen of the NE Bohemian Massif and of SW Iberia, a post-Gaskiers glacial event dated at c. 565 Ma has been detected. Such...  相似文献   

Climate parameters of Estonia and the Baltic Sea region derived from the high-resolution reanalysis database BaltAn65+     

Aarne Männik  Marko Zirk  Rein Rõõm  Andres Luhamaa 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2015,122(1-2):19-34

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Maribo—A new CM fall from Denmark     

Henning HAACK  Thomas GRAU  Addi BISCHOFF  Marian HORSTMANN  John WASSON  Anton SØRENSEN  Matthias LAUBENSTEIN  Ulrich OTT  Herbert PALME  Marko GELLISSEN  Richard C. GREENWOOD  Victoria K. PEARSON  Ian A. FRANCHI  Zelimir GABELICA  Philippe SCHMITT‐KOPPLIN 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2012,47(1):30-50

Abstract– Maribo is a new Danish CM chondrite, which fell on January 17, 2009, at 19:08:28 CET. The fall was observed by many eye witnesses and recorded by a surveillance camera, an all sky camera, a few seismic stations, and by meteor radar observatories in Germany. A single fragment of Maribo with a dry weight of 25.8 g was found on March 4, 2009. The coarse‐grained components in Maribo include chondrules, fine‐grained olivine aggregates, large isolated lithic clasts, metals, and mineral fragments (often olivine), and rare Ca,Al‐rich inclusions. The components are typically rimmed by fine‐grained dust mantles. The matrix includes abundant dust rimmed fragments of tochilinite with a layered, fishbone‐like texture, tochilinite–cronstedtite intergrowths, sulfides, metals, and carbonates often intergrown with tochilinite. The oxygen isotopic composition: (δ¹⁷O = ?1.27‰; δ¹⁸O = 4.96‰; Δ¹⁷O = ?3.85‰) plots at the edge of the CM field, close to the CCAM line. The very low Δ¹⁷O and the presence of unaltered components suggest that Maribo is among the least altered CM chondrites. The bulk chemistry of Maribo is typical of CM chondrites. Trapped noble gases are similar in abundance and isotopic composition to other CM chondrites, stepwise heating data indicating the presence of gas components hosted by presolar diamond and silicon carbide. The organics in Maribo include components also seen in Murchison as well as nitrogen‐rich components unique to Maribo.  相似文献   

Provenance of the HP–HT subducted margin in the Variscan belt (Cabo Ortegal Complex,NW Iberian Massif)          下载免费PDF全文

R. Albert  R. Arenas  A. Gerdes  S. Sánchez Martínez  L. Marko 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2015,33(9):959-979

The Variscan Upper Allochthon is a continental‐affinity terrane that recorded a Cambrian–Ediacaran magmatic arc generation, a subsequent transition to a passive margin, and a collision‐related high‐P metamorphism during the Devonian–Carboniferous amalgamation of Pangea. The objective of this article is to decipher which continental margin subducted in the Devonian high‐P–high‐T (HP–HT) event. To do so, a provenance study is presented using combined U–Pb (n = 613) and Lu–Hf (n = 463) isotopic LA–ICP–MS zircon analyses and Sm–Nd whole–rock (n = 5) determinations. These analyses have been performed on five samples of the Banded Gneisses (Cabo Ortegal Complex, NW Iberia), which forms a part of the HP–HT bottom member of the Upper Allochthon. Palaeozoic–Neoproterozoic zircon ages (34.7%) have a maximum abundance at 522–512 Ma, peaks at 575, 561, 545 Ma and minor abundance peaks between 780 and 590 Ma, and show from their Lu–Hf compositions a volcanic arc mixing pattern. This arc was probably related to the Cadomian arc system. The Mesoproterozoic population is scarce and scattered (2.8%), and due to its Lu–Hf pattern, it is proposed that this population is also West Africa Craton derived. The Paleoproterozoic population (39.6%) is concentrated at 2.07 Ga and it is linked to the Eburnean Orogeny, where depleted mantle derived magmas intruded an Archean craton margin. This craton is represented by the Archean population (22.8%), which is grouped at 3.0, 2.68‐2.61 and 2.52‐2.48 Ga, and shows long‐term reworking processes and at least two juvenile magma intrusions. These data show that the Variscan Upper Allochthon has a West African provenance and therefore, it strongly suggests that the NW Iberian allochthonous complexes and their correlative European terranes are also West Africa derived. These results allow us to finally clarify that the first high‐P event, recorded during the eo‐Variscan amalgamation of Pangea, was attained by the subduction of the margin of Gondwana under Laurussia.  相似文献   

Comments on “on the deterioration of icebergs in the marginal ice zone” (Venkatesh et al., 1994)     

J.R. Marko  D.B. Fissel 《大气与海洋》2013,51(1):187-189

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Small icebergs and iceberg fragments off Newfoundland: Relationships to deterioration mechanisms and the regional iceberg population     

J.R. Marko 《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):549-579

Abstract

Several sets of previously compiled data on iceberg size distributions in areas between North America and Greenland are compared and analyzed. The obtained results indicate that populations of icebergs with lengths L ≥ 20 m are well‐described by log‐normal and gamma distributions together with statistical parameters which are compatible with existing understanding of regional iceberg deterioration and change processes. A lesser amount of data on size distributions in Newfoundland icebergs with L < 20 m show occurrence probabilities which increase exponentially with decreasing iceberg length. Evidence is presented to show that these data are most consistent with the dominance of fracture processes in determining iceberg occurrence versus length relationships. Physical arguments are presented to suggest that the key fracture events are initiated in the larger icebergs by coincidences of wave‐generated bending stress maxima and randomly distributed structural flaws. Similar considerations and use of a simple sequential fracture model imply that size distributions in icebergs (and iceberg fragments) with L < 20 m are more consistent with the presence of an alternative, spontaneous failure mechanism also acting at randomly distributed structural defects. The implications of these results for forecasting and monitoring populations of small icebergs are discussed.  相似文献   

Landslides at a uranium mill tailing deposit site Boršt (Slovenia) detected by radar interferometry     

Magda Čarman  Mateja Jemec Auflič  Marko Komac 《Landslides》2014,11(3):527-536

This paper presents a comparison of persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) monitoring results with in situ displacement measurements at the November 1990 landslide at the Bor?t uranium mill tailing deposit site after heavy rain. Although the landslide did not directly endanger people, site remediation works were undertaken due to the subsequent environmental problems. Additionally, in situ monitoring with benchmarks was established in order to detect the ground motion of the landslide body. PSI campaigning in the ?kofjelo?ko-Cerkljansko area, where the uranium mill tailing is situated, performed for the purpose of measuring displacements of natural targets near the active landslide area, also detected displacements, most probably indicating a creeping process. When comparing the pre- and post-remediation velocities at the benchmarks located on the landslide with persistent scatterers (PSs) located near the landslide, the rates could be regarded as background. The results show that the remediation works in the form of a drainage tunnel were very effective as post-remediation velocities at the landslide closer to the PSs resembled the velocities of the PSs, while the velocities of the landslide mass above the drainage tunnel slowed down, even to below the background velocities. The high correlation values between the movements of the benchmarks and the PSs also confirm that the remediation works were effective as the fluctuations in the displacement values of the landslide were very similar to those of the PSs. Nevertheless, although there are several limitations in comparing the two different datasets, the PSI technique can be complementary to conventional in situ methods.  相似文献   

Simulation of the hydrogeologic effects of oil-shale mining on the neighbouring wetland water balance: case study in north-eastern Estonia     

Andres Marandi  Enn Karro  Maile Polikarpus  Argo Jõeleht  Marko Kohv  Tiit Hang  Helen Hiiemaa 《Hydrogeology Journal》2013,21(7):1581-1591

The water balance of wetlands plays an integral role in their function. Developments adjacent to wetlands can affect their water balance through impacts on groundwater flow and increased discharge in the area, and they can cause lowering of the wetland water table. A 430 km² area was selected for groundwater modelling to asses the effect of underground mining on the water balance of wetlands in north-eastern Estonia. A nature conservation area (encompassing Selisoo bog) is within 3 km of an underground oil-shale mine. Two future mining scenarios with different areal extents of mining were modeled and compared to the present situation. Results show that the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the subsurface is of critical importance to potential wetland dewatering as a result of mining. Significant impact on the Selisoo bog water balance will be caused by the approaching mine but there will be only minor additional impacts from mining directly below the bog. The major impact will arise before that stage, when the underground mine extension reaches the border of the nature conservation area; since the restriction of activities in this area relates to the ground surface, the conservation area’s border is not sufficiently protective in relation to underground development.  相似文献