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81.
Elevation gradients of European climate change in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A transient climate scenario experiment of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM is analyzed to assess the elevation dependency
of 21st century European climate change. A focus is put on near-surface conditions. Model evaluation reveals that COSMO-CLM
is able to approximately reproduce the observed altitudinal variation of 2 m temperature and precipitation in most regions
and most seasons. The analysis of climate change signals suggests that 21st century climate change might considerably depend
on elevation. Over most parts of Europe and in most seasons, near-surface warming significantly increases with elevation.
This is consistent with the simulated changes of the free-tropospheric air temperature, but can only be fully explained by
taking into account regional-scale processes involving the land surface. In winter and spring, the anomalous high-elevation
warming is typically connected to a decrease in the number of snow days and the snow-albedo feedback. Further factors are
changes in cloud cover and soil moisture and the proximity of low-elevation regions to the sea. The amplified warming at high
elevations becomes apparent during the first half of the 21st century and results in a general decrease of near-surface lapse
rates. It does not imply an early detection potential of large-scale temperature changes. For precipitation, only few consistent
signals arise. In many regions precipitation changes show a pronounced elevation dependency but the details strongly depend
on the season and the region under consideration. There is a tendency towards a larger relative decrease of summer precipitation
at low elevations, but there are exceptions to this as well. 相似文献
82.
We derive a conceptual model of the flow over heterogeneous terrain consisting of patches with contrasting Bowen ratios. Upward
moving eddies are assumed to carry heterogeneous properties, whereas downward moving eddies carry homogeneous properties.
This results in a decorrelation of temperature and humidity as the contrast between the patches increases. We show that this
model is able to reproduce the relationship developed by Lamaud and Irvine (Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 120:87–109, 2006). Some
details differ from their expression but are in accordance with data obtained over African savannah. We extend the conceptual
model to a combination of any scalars, not necessarily linked through the surface energy balance (as is the case for temperature
and humidity). To this end we introduce a new parameter that describes the surface heterogeneity in surface fluxes. The results
of the current model can be used to predict the discrepancy between similarity relationships for different scalars over heterogeneous
terrain. 相似文献
83.
In order to evaluate the Holocene palaeoenvironmental evolution of the Ugii Nuur basin, central Mongolia, investigations on chemical and mineralogical properties of lacustrine sediments were carried out on a 630 cm sediment core from lake Ugii Nuur. The interpretation of the record is based on a principal component analysis (PCA) of the elemental composition of the samples. The results show that lacustrine deposition started at 10.6 kyr BP. Low lake level conditions were identified during the Early Holocene (10.6-7.9 kyr BP). The Mid Holocene (7.9-4.2 kyr BP) was characterized by generally higher lake levels and thus higher moisture supply, but it experienced strong climatic fluctuations. Arid conditions prevailed from 4.2-2.8 kyr BP and were followed by a stable, more humid phase until today. 相似文献
84.
Droughts and famines: The underlying factors and the causal links among agro-pastoral households in semi-arid Makueni district, Kenya 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Chinwe Ifejika Speranza Boniface Kiteme Urs Wiesmann 《Global Environmental Change》2008,18(1):220-233
Famines are often linked to drought in semi-arid areas of Sub-Saharan Africa where not only pastoralists, but also increasingly agro-pastoralists are affected. This study addresses the interplay between drought and famine in the rural semi-arid areas of Makueni district, Kenya, by examining whether, and how crop production conditions and agro-pastoral strategies predispose smallholder households to drought-triggered food insecurity. If this hypothesis holds, then approaches to deal with drought and famine have to target factors causing household food insecurity during non-drought periods. Data from a longitudinal survey of 127 households, interviews, workshops, and daily rainfall records (1961–2003) were analysed using quantitative and qualitative methods. This integrated approach confirms the above hypothesis and reveals that factors other than rainfall, like asset and labour constraints, inadequate policy enforcement, as well as the poverty-driven inability to adopt risk-averse production systems play a key role. When linking these factors to the high rainfall variability, farmer-relevant definitions and forecasts of drought have to be applied. 相似文献
85.
Air Pollution Transport in an Alpine Valley: Results From Airborne and Ground-Based Observations 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
A. Gohm F. Harnisch J. Vergeiner F. Obleitner R. Schnitzhofer A. Hansel A. Fix B. Neininger S. Emeis K. Schäfer 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2009,131(3):441-463
An observational dataset from a wintertime field campaign in the Inn Valley, Austria, is analysed in order to study mechanisms
of air pollution transport in an Alpine valley. The results illustrate three types of mechanisms: transport by a density current,
back-and-forth transport by valley winds, and transport by slope winds. The first type is associated with an air mass difference
along the valley. Cooler air located in the lower part of the valley behaves like a density current and produces the advection
of pollutants by upvalley winds. In the second type, strong horizontal gradients in pollution concentrations exist close to
ground. Multiple wind reversals result in a back-and-forth transport of pollutants by weak valley winds. In the third type,
upslope winds during daytime decrease low-level pollution concentrations and cause the formation of elevated pollution layers. 相似文献
86.
Moritz Nykamp Fabian Becker Ricarda Braun Nadja Pöllath Daniel Knitter Joris Peters Brigitta Schütt 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(2):430-442
This study presents a meta-analysis of radiocarbon ages for the environs of Göbekli Tepe – one of the oldest monumental structures worldwide – using cumulative probability functions to diachronically assess phases of geomorphodynamic activity as controlled by natural or anthropogenic drivers. We employ sediment cascades as a heuristic framework to study the complex responses of the geomorphological system to various triggers at local to supra-regional scales. Possible triggers include climatic variability as documented by supra-regional hydroclimatic proxy data, regional demographic trends, and local to regional socioeconomic developments such as the emergence of sedentism or the introduction and dispersal of livestock herding. Our results show that phases of intensified geomorphodynamic activity occurred between ca. 7.4–7.0 and 5.8–3.3 ka BP. These phases roughly coincide with phases of population growth in southern Turkey and climatic variations in Turkey and the Levant. The phase between ca. 5.8–3.3 ka BP also corresponds to the time when organized agriculture and the seeder plough were introduced. Also, the identified phases are in agreement with the general trend of varying geomorphodynamic activity in the Eastern Mediterranean as driven by human impact and climatic change. However, neither the Younger Dryas–Holocene transition nor the development of herding during the Pre-Pottery Neolithic left a clear signature. We demonstrate how the different depositional environments in the studied landscape compartments vary with respect to their spatiotemporal coverage and discuss challenges when trying to understand processes that once shaped landscapes of past societies. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd 相似文献
87.
Annika Nolte Malte Eley Matthias Schöniger David Gwapedza Jane Tanner Sukhmani Kaur Mantel Konstantin Scheihing 《水文研究》2021,35(6):e14264
To increase the resilience of regional water supply systems in South Africa in the face of anticipated climatic changes and a constant increase in water demand, water supply sources require diversification. Many water-stressed metropolitan regions in South Africa depend largely on surface water to cover their water demand. While climatic and river discharge data is widely available in these regions, information on groundwater resources – which could support supply source diversification – is scarce. Groundwater recharge is a key parameter that is used to estimate groundwater amounts that can be sustainably exploited at a sub-watershed level. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a reliable hydrological modelling routine that enables the assessment of regional spatio-temporal variations of groundwater recharge to discern the most promising areas for groundwater development. Accordingly, we present a semi-distributed hydrological modelling approach that incorporates water balance routines coupled with baseflow modelling techniques to yield spatio-temporal variations of groundwater recharge on a regional level. The approach is demonstrated for the actively managed catchment areas of the Amathole Water Supply System situated in a semi-arid part of the Eastern Cape of South Africa. In the investigated study area, annual groundwater recharge exhibits a high spatio-temporal heterogeneity and is estimated to vary between ~0.5% and 8% of annual rainfall. Despite some uncertainties induced by limited data availability, calibration and validation of the model were found to be satisfactory and yielded model results similar to (point) data of annual groundwater recharge reported in earlier studies. Our approach is therefore found to derive crucial information for efficiently targeting more detailed groundwater exploration studies and could work as a blueprint for orientating groundwater potential exploration in similar environments. 相似文献
88.
Natalia Panafidina Urs Hugentobler Manuela Seitz Hana Krásná 《Journal of Geodesy》2017,91(12):1503-1512
This paper studies the connection between the subdaily model for polar motion used in the processing of very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations and the estimated nutation offsets. By convention accepted by the International Earth Rotation Service, the subdaily model for polar motion recommended for routine processing of geodetic observations does not contain any daily retrograde terms due to their one-to-one correlation with the nutation. Nevertheless, for a 24-h VLBI solution a part of the signal contained in the polar motion given by the used subdaily model is numerically mistaken for a retrograde daily sidereal signal. This fictitious retrograde daily signal contributes to the estimated nutation, leading to systematic differences between the nutation offsets from VLBI solutions computed with different subdaily polar motion models. We demonstrate this effect using solutions for all suitable 24-h VLBI sessions over a time span of 11 years (2000–2011). By changing the amplitudes of one tidal term in the underlying subdaily model for polar motion and comparing the estimated parameters to the solutions computed with the unchanged subdaily model, the paper shows and explains theoretically the effects produced by the individual subdaily terms on the VLBI nutation estimates. 相似文献
89.
Spatial variability in the chemical composition of the snowcover at high alpine sites 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
W. Schöner H. Puxbaum M. Staudinger F. Maupetit D. Wagenbach 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1997,56(1-2):25-32
Summary For a comparison of snow chemistry data from different glaciers or snow fields it is important to have informations about the spatial representativeness of the data from each of the individual sites. In order to assess the representativeness of concentration data of major ions (volume weighted means of the winter accumulation) from glacier fields we investigated the variability in the average concentration of major ions from parallel samples within one snow pit and from different pits within one glacier field. The variabilities in the average concentrations of NO
3
-
, SO
4
2-
and NH
4
+
for three parallel profiles within one snow pit at Goldbergkees (Austria) were 1.2, 3.3 and 2.0% (coefficient of variation). Cl– and Na+ showed larger variations (6.6 and 56.6%) possibly originating from contaminations. The variability of average concentration data from different snow pits within one glacier field was studied at La Grave (France) and at Goldbergkees (Austria). At La Grave 3 pits and at Goldbergkees 4 pits at distance of several hundred meters were sampled. Variabilities for SO
4
2-
and NO
3
-
were quite similar for the two sites (17% for both ions at La Grave, 12% and 15% at Goldbergkees). Whereas variabilities for Na+, NH
4
+
, Mg2+, Ca2+ and Cl– were quite low at La Grave ( 12% and 27% for Cl–), higher values were obtained at Goldbergkees for these ions (17–56%). Likely reasons for the higher variability observed at Goldbergkees are a) higher spatial variability of crustal aerosol species (Mg2+, Ca2+), b) problems with the detection limit of the analytical method (Ca2+), c) contaminations (Na+, Cl–).With 4 Figures 相似文献
90.