太平洋年代际振荡、大西洋年代际振荡和全球变暖对北美地区降水的相对贡献     

徐川  张昊  陶丽 《大气科学》2021,45(6):1196-1216

本文研究了1934～2018年期间太平洋年代际振荡（Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation,IPO）、大西洋年代际振荡（Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,AMO）以及全球变暖（Global Warming,GW）对北美地区陆地降水年代际变化的相对贡献。首先通过对冬（12至次年2月）、夏季（6～8月）北美地区的陆地降水与中低纬地区的海表面温度进行奇异值分解分析,得到对北美陆地冬季降水相对贡献较大的主要海温模态为IPO（42.33%）和AMO（23.21%）,夏季则为AMO（32.66%）和IPO（21.60%）。其次利用线性回归模型,分析三种信号分别对北美冬、夏季陆地降水的相对贡献及对北美陆地不同区域降水的相对重要性,结果表明AMO对夏季北美陆地降水变化的贡献最大,IPO次之,冬季则相反,GW对冬夏季北美陆地降水都有一定的贡献。夏季期间阿拉斯加地区AMO的贡献最大,约占65.8%,加拿大地区GW的贡献最大,约占44.5%,美国本土及墨西哥地区三者贡献基本一致;冬季期间阿拉斯加和加拿大地区GW的贡献最大,分别为62.3%和44.7%,美国本土和墨西哥地区IPO的贡献最大,分别为47.9%和71.5%。进一步利用信息流方法,验证了IPO、AMO、GW对降水的敏感性区域。最后运用全球大气环流模式ECHAM 4.6进一步确定了太平洋和大西洋海温异常对北美地区陆地降水变化的影响途径,结果表明印度洋海表面温度异常在AMO和IPO对北美陆地降水变化的作用中至关重要。  相似文献   

气候学发展历程的回顾与若干启示     

杨萍  许小峰  王志强 《大气科学》2021,45(6):1249-1258

在人类对气候的漫长认知过程中,因涉及学科之广、贡献人物之多、关键事件之复杂导致后人试图完整准确地把握其脉络走向的努力极为困难。这就使得梳理古今中外几千年以来气候学的发展进程变得尤为重要,也成为气候学学科建设不可或缺的重要组成部分。本文试图在前人大量研究成果基础上,回顾气候学发展历程中的重要事件和关键人物,以时间脉络为主线,勾画出人类认识气候的基本轮廓,并以此为基础探讨其对当代气候学发展的启示。  相似文献   

The Key Supply Source of Long-Distance Moisture Transport for the Extreme Rainfall Event on July 21, 2012 in Beijing     

李娟  徐祥德  李跃清  赵天良  吴翀 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(1):34-47

In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and meteorological observation data were used to research the long-distance moisture transport supply source of the extreme rainfall event that occurred on July 21, 2012 in Beijing. Recording a maximum rainfall amount of 460 mm in 24 h, this rainstorm event had two dominant moisture transport channels. In the early stage of the rainstorm, the first channel comprised southwesterly monsoonal moisture from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) that was directly transported to north China along the eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau (TP) by orographic uplift. During the rainstorm, the southwesterly moisture transport was weakened by the transfer of Typhoon Vicente. Moreover, the southeasterly moisture transport between the typhoon and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) became another dominant moisture transport channel. The moisture in the lower troposphere was mainly associated with the southeasterly moisture transport from the South China Sea and the East China Sea, and the moisture in the middle troposphere was mainly transported from the BOB and Indian Ocean. The control experiment well reproduced the distribution and intensity of rainfall and moisture transport. By comparing the control and three sensitivity experiments, we found that the moisture transported from Typhoon Vicente and a tropical cyclone in the BOB both significantly affected this extreme rainfall event. After Typhoon Vicente was removed in a sensitivity experiment, the maximum 24-h accumulated rainfall in north China was reduced by approximately 50% compared with that of the control experiment, while the rainfall after removing the tropical cyclone was reduced by 30%. When both the typhoon and tropical cyclone were removed, the southwesterly moisture transport was enhanced. Moreover, the sensitivity experiment of removing Typhoon Vicente also weakened the tropical cyclone in the BOB. Thus, the moisture pump driven by Typhoon Vicente played an important role in maintaining and strengthening the tropical cyclone in the BOB through its westerly airflow. Typhoon Vicente was not only the moisture transfer source for the southwesterly monsoonal moisture but also affected the tropical cyclone in the BOB, which was a key supply source of long-distance moisture transport for the extreme rainfall event on July 21, 2012 in Beijing.  相似文献   

Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models     

钟水新  庄妍  胡胜  陈子通  丁伟钰  冯业荣  邓涛  刘显通  张艳霞  徐道生  戴光丰  蒙伟光 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(4):406-417

In the present study, the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated. The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further discussed. The results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over Henan. The maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan Province. The 24-h and 48-h Threat Score (TS) of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and 0.64. The comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score (FSS) verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and 0.87. The water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7 · 20. The north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye (Cempaka) over south China. The IVT over the lower troposphere (<500 hPa) showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level, especially in the planetary boundary layer (<700 hPa). More practical technical needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall, as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.  相似文献   

Intercomparison of CRA-Interim Precipitation Products with ERA5 and JRA-55     

叶梦姝  姚秀萍  张涛  许小峰  王式功 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(2):136-147

By using the hourly data from surface meteorological stations in China, the 3-hour precipitation data from CRA-Interim (Chinese Reanalysis-Interim), ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis 5) and JRA-55 (Japanese Reanalysis-55) are compared, both on the spatial-temporal distributions and on bias with observation precipitation in China. The results show that: (1) The three sets of reanalysis datasets can all reflect the basic spatial distribution characteristics of annual average precipitation in China. The simulation of topographic forced precipitation in complex terrain by CRA-interim is more detailed, while CRA-interim has larger negative bias in central and East China, and larger positive bias in southwest China. (2) In terms of seasonal precipitation, the three sets of reanalysis datasets overestimate the precipitation in the heavy rainfall zone of spring and summer, especially in southwest China. CRA interim’s location of the rain belt in the First Rainy Season in South China is west by south, the summer precipitation has positive bias in southwest and South China. (3) All of the reanalysis datasets can basically reflect the distribution difference of inter-annual variation of drought and flood, but the overall the CRA-Interim generally shows negative bias, while the ERA5 and JRA-55 exhibit positive bias. (4) For the diurnal variation of precipitation in summer, all the reanalysis datasets perform better in simulating the daytime precipitation than in the night, and bias of CRA-interim is less in southeast and northeast than elsewhere. (5) ERA5 generally performs the best on the evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecast, the JRA-55 is the next, followed by the CRA-Interim. CRA-Interim has higher missing rate and lower threat score for heavy rains; however, at the level of downpour, the CRA-Interim performs slightly better.  相似文献   

路网距离约束的GTWR模型应用——以北京市房价为例     

王梦晗  刘纪平  王勇  罗安  徐胜华 《测绘科学》2018,(4):133-137

针对传统地理加权回归方法无法解决时空非平稳性的问题,该文提出了一种路网距离约束的时空地理加权回归方法。引入时间特性,进一步把握了不同因子在时空维度影响的分异性;以路网距离度量约束,提高模型解释力。以北京市城6区1980—2015年的1 632个住宅小区特征价格数据为例,通过与直线距离约束的常规地理加权回归方法等进行比较,采用各模型的AIC与拟合优度等指标对模型置信水平高低进行评价。实验结果表明,路网距离约束的地理加权回归模型不仅能够提高模型的拟合精度,还能更好地揭示房价在时间与空间方面的变化规律。  相似文献   

一种基于属性值变化程度定权的聚类算法     

杨扬  许厚泽  常军 《测绘科学》2018,(5):1-4

针对经典K-means聚类算法以欧氏距离作为相似度判断法则进行聚类划分,而未考虑聚类对象的各属性值对聚类划分的影响程度存在差异的问题,该文提出了一种基于属性值变化程度定权的聚类算法。通过采用Iris dataset数据进行实验,该算法相对于其他聚类算法获得了更好的聚类效果,且该算法适用于生物物种分类、遥感影像识别等工作领域,能提高聚类运算的精准度。  相似文献   

A new GPS/BDS tropospheric delay resolution approach for monitoring deformation in super high-rise buildings     

Xin Li  Guanwen Huang  Qin Zhang  Qingzhi Zhao 《GPS Solutions》2018,22(3):90

A new approach for deformation monitoring of super high-rise building using GPS/BDS technology is proposed for the case when prior coordinates are known and the baseline is short but has a large height difference. The approach is based on the ambiguity function method (AFM). Considering that the double-differenced (DD) troposphere delay residual error cannot be ignored, the relative zenith tropospheric delay (RZTD) parameter is introduced into the original AFM equation. Thus, the RZTD and 3D coordinate parameters are together obtained through the modified AFM (MAFM). Due to the low computational efficiency of conventional AFM, an improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) algorithm is used to search the four optimal parameters X/Y/Z/RZTD and replaces the grid search method. In this study, GPS/BDS deformation monitoring data for buildings with approximately 290 m height difference were used to verify the feasibility of the proposed MAFM. Numerical results show a single-epoch average computation time of approximately 0.3 s, which meets the requirements of near-real-time dynamic monitoring. The average accuracy of the GPS single-epoch RZTD solution is better than 1 cm, the combined GPS/BDS MAFM performance outperforms the GPS-only system, and using multi-epoch observations can further improve the accuracy of the RZTD solution. After RZTD correction, GPS/BDS monitoring precision can be improved, particularly the height dimension, whose precision is improved by approximately 6 cm.  相似文献   

基于结构相似性与直线提取的建筑物变化检测方法     

徐安建  罗军凯  张凯 《测绘与空间地理信息》2018,(3):163-166,170

利用数字线划图中建筑物的矢量信息,根据前后两个时期的高分辨率遥感影像,通过结合LSD直线段提取算法与结构相似性度量,采用比较特征差异的方式提出了一种能够以较高的正确率进行快速建筑物变化检测的算法。本文对检测算法的过程进行了介绍,通过实验数据对算法进行了检验,探讨了阈值变化对结果的影响。  相似文献   

基于数据同化的长春市雾霾反演与空间特征分析     

徐则双  王明常  牛雪峰  王凤艳  李启源 《测绘与空间地理信息》2018,(4):33-36

近年随着长春地区冬季雾霾天气的频繁出现,大气可吸入颗粒物(PM2.5)已成为长春地区的主要空气污染物之一。遥感技术与污染物模型相结合是近年来预报空气质量的一种有效方法。本文以2015—2016年长春市冬季雾霾天气为例,利用MODIS遥感影像获取的气溶胶光学厚度(AOD),反演长春市地表PM2.5浓度值,得到长春市空气污染物空间分布图,并分析长春市空气污染物的时空分布特征。同时利用AOD反演的PM2.5浓度值作为数据同化资料,对长春市地表PM2.5浓度值进行预报,预测结果令人满意。研究结果表明:数据同化与遥感信息技术结合进行雾霾预测是一种有效的手段,可为雾霾反演的数据提供可靠的信息。  相似文献