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11.
Annika Nolte Malte Eley Matthias Schöniger David Gwapedza Jane Tanner Sukhmani Kaur Mantel Konstantin Scheihing 《水文研究》2021,35(6):e14264
To increase the resilience of regional water supply systems in South Africa in the face of anticipated climatic changes and a constant increase in water demand, water supply sources require diversification. Many water-stressed metropolitan regions in South Africa depend largely on surface water to cover their water demand. While climatic and river discharge data is widely available in these regions, information on groundwater resources – which could support supply source diversification – is scarce. Groundwater recharge is a key parameter that is used to estimate groundwater amounts that can be sustainably exploited at a sub-watershed level. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a reliable hydrological modelling routine that enables the assessment of regional spatio-temporal variations of groundwater recharge to discern the most promising areas for groundwater development. Accordingly, we present a semi-distributed hydrological modelling approach that incorporates water balance routines coupled with baseflow modelling techniques to yield spatio-temporal variations of groundwater recharge on a regional level. The approach is demonstrated for the actively managed catchment areas of the Amathole Water Supply System situated in a semi-arid part of the Eastern Cape of South Africa. In the investigated study area, annual groundwater recharge exhibits a high spatio-temporal heterogeneity and is estimated to vary between ~0.5% and 8% of annual rainfall. Despite some uncertainties induced by limited data availability, calibration and validation of the model were found to be satisfactory and yielded model results similar to (point) data of annual groundwater recharge reported in earlier studies. Our approach is therefore found to derive crucial information for efficiently targeting more detailed groundwater exploration studies and could work as a blueprint for orientating groundwater potential exploration in similar environments. 相似文献
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Beobide-Arsuaga Goratz Bayr Tobias Reintges Annika Latif Mojib 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(11):3875-3888
There is a long-standing debate on how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude may change during the twenty-first century in response to global warming. Here we identify the sources of uncertainty in the ENSO amplitude projections in models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6), and quantify scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and uncertainty due to internal variability. The model projections exhibit a large spread, ranging from increasing standard deviation of up to 0.6 °C to diminishing standard deviation of up to − 0.4 °C by the end of the twenty-first century. The ensemble-mean ENSO amplitude change is close to zero. Internal variability is the main contributor to the uncertainty during the first three decades; model uncertainty dominates thereafter, while scenario uncertainty is relatively small throughout the twenty-first century. The total uncertainty increases from CMIP5 to CMIP6: while model uncertainty is reduced, scenario uncertainty is considerably increased. The models with “realistic” ENSO dynamics have been analyzed separately and categorized into models with too small, moderate and too large ENSO amplitude in comparison to instrumental observations. The smallest uncertainties are observed in the sub-ensemble exhibiting realistic ENSO dynamics and moderate ENSO amplitude. However, the global warming signal in ENSO-amplitude change is undetectable in all sub-ensembles. The zonal wind-SST feedback is identified as an important factor determining ENSO amplitude change: global warming signal in ENSO amplitude and zonal wind-SST feedback strength are highly correlated across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models.
相似文献13.
Annika Parviainen Matthew B.J. Lindsay Rafael Pérez-López Blair D. Gibson Carol J. Ptacek David W. Blowes Kirsti Loukola-Ruskeeniemi 《Applied Geochemistry》2012
Nearly half a century after mine closure, release of As from the Ylöjärvi Cu–W–As mine tailings in groundwater and surface water run-off was observed. Investigations by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), electron microprobe analysis (EMPA), synchrotron-based micro-X-ray diffraction (μ-XRD), micro-X-ray absorption near edge structure (μ-XANES) and micro-extended X-ray absorption fine structure (μ-EXAFS) spectroscopy, and a sequential extraction procedure were performed to assess As attenuation mechanisms in the vadose zone of this tailings deposit. Results of SEM, EMPA, and sequential extractions indicated that the precipitation of As bearing Fe(III) (oxy)hydroxides (up to 18.4 wt.% As2O5) and Fe(III) arsenates were important secondary controls on As mobility. The μ-XRD, μ-XANES and μ-EXAFS analyses suggested that these phases correspond to poorly crystalline and disordered As-bearing precipitates, including arsenical ferrihydrite, scorodite, kaňkite, and hydrous ferric arsenate (HFA). The pH within 200 cm of the tailings surface averaged 5.7, conditions which favor the precipitation of ferrihydrite. Poorly crystalline Fe(III) arsenates are potentially unstable over time, and their transformation to ferrihydrite, which contributes to As uptake, has potential to increase the As adsorption capacity of the tailings. Arsenic mobility in tailings pore water at the Ylöjärvi mine will depend on continued arsenopyrite oxidation, dissolution or transformation of secondary Fe(III) arsenates, and the As adsorption capacity of Fe(III) (oxy)hydroxides within this tailings deposit. 相似文献
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Laura Geselbracht Kathleen Freeman Eugene Kelly Doria R. Gordon Francis E. Putz 《Climatic change》2011,107(1-2):35-57
The State of Florida (USA) is especially threatened by sea level rise due to extensive low elevation coastal habitats (approximately 8,000?km2?<?1?m above sea level) where the majority of the human population resides. We used the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) simulation to improve understanding of the magnitude and location of these changes for 58,000?ha of the Waccasassa Bay region of Florida??s central Gulf of Mexico coast. To assess how well SLAMM portrays changes in coastal wetland systems resulting from sea level rise, we conducted a hindcast in which we compared model results to 30?years of field plot data. Overall, the model showed the same pattern of coastal forest loss as observed. Prospective runs of SLAMM using 0.64?m, 1?m and 2?m sea level rise scenarios predict substantial changes over this century in the area covered by coastal wetland systems including net losses of coastal forests (69%, 83%, and 99%, respectively) and inland forests (33%, 50%, and 88%), but net gains of tidal flats (17%, 142%, and 3,837%). One implication of these findings at the site level is that undeveloped, unprotected lands inland from the coastal forest should be protected to accommodate upslope migration of this natural community in response to rising seas. At a broader scale, our results suggest that coastal wetland systems will be unevenly affected across the Gulf of Mexico as sea level rises. Species vulnerable to these anticipated changes will experience a net loss or even elimination. 相似文献
15.
Many individual-level behaviors are associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reliable and valid assessment instruments are needed to (1) identify behaviors and populations to target with emissions-reduction programs and policies, (2) evaluate the effectiveness of such programs, (3) link self-reported and objective measures of GHG emissions to establish the impact of specific behaviors, and (4) estimate frequencies of behaviors and their changes over time to aid policy makers in understanding energy consumption trends. The self-administered Stanford Climate Change Behavior Survey (SCCBS) is shown to be a reliable and valid instrument that can be used for these purposes in college students, and we anticipate that it will also be useful for assessing these behaviors in other adolescent or adult populations in developed countries. Questions included behaviors likely to be within the control of most individuals and did not include behaviors specific to home owners (e.g. appliance purchases). Ten indices were identified: Energy Use, No-, Low-, and High-GHG Transportation, Waste, Food Packaging, High- and Low-GHG Food, Food Purchasing, and GHG Credits use. A Total GHG Behavior score was calculated. Test–retest reliabilities of individual items ranged from .64 to .91. Internal consistency reliabilities for each of the indices ranged from .51 to .89. Most indices were statistically significantly correlated with one another. Correlational validity of the SCCBS was demonstrated with statistically significant associations between behavior scores and perceived importance of environmental sustainability and membership in an environmental organization. The use of the SCCBS to identify potential target sub-populations and behaviors was demonstrated. 相似文献
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Previous studies have shown that environmental values of inhabitants of urban areas differ to some extent from those of people living in rural contexts. In the light of increasing urbanization, it is sometimes argued that these differences are becoming even greater, as people are becoming more and more alienated from nature. In the context of a larger survey study on beliefs about forests and forest management among the general public in Germany and Sweden, the influences of people’s migration biographies on their patterns of forest usage, their environmental concerns about forests, and the expectations and values they ascribe to forests are explored. While previous findings on differences between urban and rural populations are confirmed, we also find variation within these groups depending on their history of moving between the two spatial categories. This study thus adds a dynamic aspect to the discussion on the urban–rural perspective on beliefs about forests. 相似文献
18.
Two different airborne electromagnetic methods were applied in the same area: the frequency-domain helicopter-borne electromagnetic (HEM) system operated by the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Germany, and the time-domain SkyTEM system of the HydroGeophysics Group at the University of Aarhus, Denmark. For verification of and comparison with the airborne methods, ground-based transient electromagnetics and 2-D resistivity surveying were carried out. The target of investigation was the Cuxhaven valley in Northern Germany, which is a significant local groundwater reservoir. The course of this buried valley was revealed by drillings and the shape was determined by reflection seismics at several cross sections.We applied electrical and electromagnetic methods to investigate the structure of the valley filling consisting of gravel, sand, silt and clay. The HEM survey clearly outlines a shallow conductor at about 20m depth and a deeper conductor below 40m depth inside the valley. This is confirmed by 2-D resistivity surveying and a drilling. The thickness of the deeper conductor, however, is not revealed due to the limited investigation depth of the HEM system. The SkyTEM survey does not resolve the shallow conductor, but it outlines the thickness of the deeper clay layer inside the valley and reveals a conductive layer at about 180m depth outside the valley. The SkyTEM results are very consistent with ground-based transient electromagnetic soundings.Airborne electromagnetic surveying in general has the advantage of fast resistivity mapping with high lateral resolution. The HEM system is cost-efficient and fast, but the more expensive and slower SkyTEM system provides a higher depth of investigation. Ground-based geophysical surveys are often more accurate, but they are definitively slower than airborne surveys. It depends on targets of interest, time, budget, and manpower available by which a method or combination of methods will be chosen. A combination of different methods is useful to obtain a detailed understanding of the subsurface resistivity distribution. 相似文献
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Rainer Putz 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1997,59(1):74-93
Chlorophyll a-concentrations, AFWD (ash-free-dry-weight) and photosynthesis rates were estimated for periphyton assemblages in Amazonian black-and white-water habitats over 14 months. Cellulose-acetate strips were incubated in situ and showed few major differences in periphyton quality as compared to natural substrata. The only exceptions were submersed Igapó forest leaves, which exhibited higher proportions of green algae and cyanobacteria though not producing differences in total periphyton biomass. Enclosure experiments showed a considerable nutrient release by inundated non-senescent Igapó forest leaves. Periphyton biomass and productivity were found to be highest in black-and white water mixing zones, where biomass peaked at 41.6 mg Chla/m2 and 19.8 g/m2 AFDW. Production was estimated to be 380 gC/m2·a. Maximum biomass of periphyton in floating meadows was 46 mg Chla/m2 and 10.6 g/m2 AFDW, with an annual production of 170 gC/m2·a. Solimões main channel periphyton values were low: maximum Chla was 7.1 mg/m2, AFDW 0.8 g/m2 and annual production was estimated to be 30 gC/m2. Blackwater periphyton values were lower compared to whitewater and mixed water values but an enlarged trophogenic zone has to be taken into account. Highest Chla content reached 30.9 mg/m2, AFDW 1.43 g/m2. Estimated annual production was 110 gC/m2. Observed mean periphyton productivity of Amazonian blackwater habitats approximately corresponded to mesotrophic attached algae productivity in temperate zones, whereas productivity of whitewater periphyton approached those of temperate eutrophic lakes. The role of periphyton in the Amazon food web is discussed. 相似文献
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The compositional variation of accessory monazite in ore bearing micaschists from the Schellgaden mining district, Tauern Window, Eastern Alps, was studied by means of the electron microprobe. In ore-rich domains monazite yields unusually high sulfur contents (up to 2.5?wt.% SO3), which enter the monazite structure together with Ca and Sr as ??anhydrite-celestine?? component replacing P and REEs. The exchange reaction is S6++ (Ca, Sr)2+ = REE3++ P5+. Sulfur-rich monazite is intergrown with anglesite, pyromorphite or galena and shows oscillatory zoning indicating growth from S-bearing fluids. This type of S-enriched monazite yields very high common lead contents (up to 0.5?wt.% PbO) and unrealistic high apparent Th-U-total Pb single dates (> 1?Ga). However, S-enriched monazite grains provide a flat trendline in the Th* vs. Pb isochron diagram similar to the trendline defined through low-S, and low-Pb monazite crystals (0.1?C1?wt.% SO3, < 0.05?wt.% PbO), which were observed in ore-poor parts of micaschists. Results from this study imply an Alpine rather than a pre-Alpine formation age for monazite and a strong S-rich fluid activity during the Alpine orogeny. Apart from this geological aspect, the current study also shows that the detection of sulfur in monazite may serve as a warning for a possible presence of common Pb. 相似文献