定量降水预报技术进展   总被引：13，自引：7，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

毕宝贵  代刊  王毅  符娇兰  曹勇  刘凑华 《应用气象学报》2016,27(5):534-549

对21世纪以来定量降水预报技术流程中的数值模式预报、统计后处理、检验评估和预报员作用4个方面的研究工作进行了归纳,主要进展包括:业务全球模式对于降水的预报能力持续提升,而发展高分辨率模式 (尤其是对流尺度模式) 和集合预报是提高定量降水预报精准化水平的主要途径,且将两者相结合以促进短期降水预报是发展趋势;统计后处理技术已发展到应用数据挖掘方法对海量预报数据中有效信息进行提取和集成,而再预报资料的出现将进一步促进统计后处理技术的发展;为解决评估精细化定量降水预报面临的新问题,多种新的检验技术得到发展和应用,如极端降水检验评分、空间检验技术及概率检验方法等;预报员在模式和后处理方法上能够提供的附加值越来越有限,但在预报流程中仍将处于核心地位,其角色将逐渐向帮助用户进行决策方向转变。文章指出,定量降水预报技术的发展所面临的挑战包括大气水汽观测及同化技术改进、暖区和复杂地形下暴雨预报等科学问题的解决。  相似文献   

近54年阿勒泰地区夏季极端降水事件气候特征     

博尔楠  恰里哈尔  阿依敏  别克达吾列提  宋佳 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2016,10(4):39-46

本文采用阿勒泰地区7个国家级气象站近54a(1960～2013年)夏季(6～8月)的日有效降水量（20～20h降水量≥0.1mm）资料,用WMO推荐的百分位法计算了全地区过去54a夏季极端强降水的阈值、进一步分析了当地夏季时空分布特征及变化趋势,结果表明：阿勒泰地区夏季极端强降水阈值呈西部、南部小,北部、东部大,并且空间异常分布特征如下: 夏季以及夏季各月的极端强降水日数和强度均可总结出5种最主要模型;极端强降水量可总结出8种最主要模型;并且通过时间标准化序列分析各种模型都有对应的降水日数、量级、强度明显偏多（强）和偏少（弱）的时段。日数、量级、强度近54a来,除吉木乃略有下降以外,其余各县（市）均为增长趋势,尤其是北部、东部地区.同时上述三指标存在着显著的年代际和年纪尺度的周期变化,上世纪90年代和2010年至今为三个指标最多(强)的年代,而上世纪70年代为最少（最差）的年代.并通过周期分析（小波分析）可知,均有对应的显著变化周期。  相似文献   

鲁中南一次暴雨过程的特征和成因分析     

朱义青  王庆华  曹张驰  张品竹 《气象科技》2016,44(4):659-668

利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°逐6h的再分析资料、GPS可降雨资料和地闪定位资料,对2013年7月4—5日山东中南部出现的暴雨到大暴雨天气过程的不同阶段特征和成因进行了分析,结果表明:本次暴雨过程是冷暖切变线所引发,暴雨的水汽源于南海;低空急流的强弱和水汽通量的大小呈正相关;暖切变线暴雨的雨强、影响范围和持续时间明显大于冷切变线暴雨;冷、暖切变线GPS可降雨量表现不同,前者短时间内增幅大,地面强降雨在峰值出现1h后发生,对地面降雨变化反映较敏感,后者强降雨出现前8h可降雨量快速上升,可降雨量峰值对应地面降雨大值,对地面降雨变化反映不敏感;冷切变线对流性更强,地闪频次为暖切变线降雨的2倍,正地闪频次为暖切变线降雨的1/2,负地闪频次为暖切变线降雨的2倍;降雨云团正、负地闪活跃程度呈反相位关系,正、负地闪的变化能很好地反映强降雨的变化;冷、暖切变线动力结构不同,前者物理量场从低层到高层向北倾斜,后者则为垂直分布;冷切变线上升运动区较暖切变线深厚。  相似文献   

基于层区带刻度区地质特点的资源评价方法适用性分析     

张雪峰  罗安湘  惠潇  赵彦德  王克  黄锦绣 《地质科技情报》2016,(4):59-65

针对新型的层区带刻度区进行资源评价方法的适应性研究是长庆四次资评一项重要内容。采用油藏规模序列法、油藏过程模型法、容积法和饱和探井法4种资源评价方法,对具不同成藏特点的刻度区进行了深入的方法适用性分析和参数研究。研究结果表明,过程类资源评价方法对低渗透、特低渗透连续性岩性油藏,在以储量提交单元作为统计单元进行油藏发现序列与规模序列模拟时,计算参数的合理性与计算结果认知度很难达到统一。而勘探程度类资源评价方法,在深入的地质分析基础上,选择合理适宜的关键参数,是可以求得较为可信的地质资源量。当然,评价者对评价对象的认识程度和对评价方法的掌握程度也影响着资源评价的结果。  相似文献   

降水井改造为原位生产井的工艺设计及应用     

吕士东  孙友宏  李强  郭威  周科  王思远 《世界地质》2016,35(4):1185-1194

为有效地扩大油页岩原位开采区域和节约油页岩原位开采的成本,需将废置的降水井改造成为原位生产井。根据降水井与原位生产井井身结构的相似性,对农安油页岩原位开采先导试验工程基地的降水井改造工艺进行了设计和优化。同时研发了偏心轮式套管割管装置及三爪式套管打捞装置用于拔管施工。工程实践证明,该工艺具有步骤简单、合理、高效以及价格低廉等特点。偏心轮式套管割管装置及三爪式套管打捞装置应用在降水井改造中,均取得理想的效果。  相似文献   

Fifteen Years of Ocean Observations with China Argo     

Liu Zenghong  Wu Xiaofen  Xu Jianping  Li Hong  Lu Shaolei  Sun Chaohui  Cao Minjie 《地球科学进展》2016,31(5):445-460

For 15 years since the beginning of China Argo project, China has deployed over 350 profiling floats in Pacific and Indian ocean, and constructed China Argo ocean observing network. Moreover, we have setup the Argo data receiving, processing and distributing system, and developed various Argo data products using Argo observations, which has promoted the progress of ocean data sharing in China. The abundant Argo data have become a main data source in oceanic and atmospheric basic researches and operational applications. A batch of important achievements in basic research and operational application have been brought, e.g. in aspects of tropical cyclone (typhoon), ocean circulation, meso-scale eddy, turbulence, heat/salt storage and transport and water mass, as well as in ocean, atmosphere/climate operational forecasting and predicting. With the extension of the international Argo program from “Core Argo” to “Global Argo”, we are faced with great challenges in the long-term maintaining and sustained developing of our Argo ocean observing network. It is suggested that we should take the opportunity to construct China regional Argo ocean observing network as soon as possible in adjacent northwestern Pacific and Indian ocean using Chinese BeiDou profiling floats, which will make us to take responsibility and obligation of a big country for addressing global climate changes and preventing natural disasters.  相似文献   

Comparative Analysis of International Energy Consumption Characteristics and China's Countermeasures     

Yang Zhanhong  Lü  Lianhong  Cao Bao  Wang Xiao  Luo Hong 《地球科学进展》2016,31(1):94-102

With the rise of low carbon economy and the deterioration of the international energy situation, most countries in the world pay more attention to energy issues. In this paper, based on a comparison with several countries of large energy consumption, we used long sequence statistics to analyze the energy consumption characteristics from the world and the history, including energy consumption, energy consumption structure and energy efficiency, and then summed up the characteristics of energy consumption in developed countries, analyzed China's energy consumption process and the current stage, and found out the main problems of energy consumption in China. At last, countermeasures for the healthy development of China's energy were proposed, including actively promoting scientific and technological progress, upgrading energy structure, developing low carbon economy, rationalizing energy prices, improving the proportion of clean energy consumption and emphasizing synergistic effect on environment protection.  相似文献   

Using Geomechanical Method to Predict Tectonic Fractures in Low-Permeability Sandstone Reservoirs     

Feng Jianwei  Ren Qiqiang  Xu Ke 《地球科学进展》2016,31(9):946-967

Understanding and interpreting the timing, location, orientation, and intensity of natural fractures within a geological structure are commonly important to both exploration and production planning activities of low-porosity and low-permeability carbonate reservoirs. In this study, we explore the application of comprehensive geomechanical methods to quantitatively characterize the fracture parameters based on Strain Energy Density Theory, such as linear fracture density and volume fracture density. This study approach is based on the idea that energy generated by tectonic stress on brittle sandstone,which can be distinguished fracture surface energy, friction energy dissipation and residual strain energy and natural fractures can be interpreted or inferred from geomechanical-model-derived strains. For this analysis, we model an extension and compression compound fault block developed in a mechanically stratified sandstone and shale sequence because mechanics experimental data and drilling data exist that can be directly compared with model results.However, the results show that the approach and our study conclusion are independent of the specified structural geometry, which can correlate fracture parameters in different stages with different tectonic activities, and finally build and visualize fracture networks in sandstone. The presence or absence of filling minerals in fractures is shown to strongly control the destruction and transformation of low-permeability sandstone, and this control possesses crucial implications for interpreting fracture aperture and reservoir flow simulation.  相似文献   

高压下天然菱铁矿的压缩性和电子结构研究     

高静  巫翔  秦善  张硕  杨科  李晓东 《岩石矿物学杂志》2016,35(2):276-282

采用同步辐射光源和金刚石对顶砧(DAC)技术,对天然菱铁矿的压缩性和电子结构进行了原位X射线衍射(XRD)和X射线吸收近边结构谱(XANES)测试研究。在室温下随着压力逐渐升高至50.2 GPa,菱铁矿保持方解石型结构不变,但是逐渐向Na Cl型结构转变;刚性[CO3]2-基团平行于ab-平面定向排列使c轴的压缩性大于a轴。菱铁矿在44.6~47.1 GPa之间发生电子由高自旋态(HS)向低自旋态(LS)的转变,表现为体积塌陷8%。HS菱铁矿的等温状态方程参数为K0=112(5)GPa和K'0=4.6(3)。首次采用XANES技术对菱铁矿中Fe2+的电子结构进行了研究,结果表明:随着压力升高至37.3 GPa,Fe2+的配位和局域对称并未发生明显变化;此后电子结构开始转变,Fe2+的3d轨道分裂能降低,电子跃迁概率增大,呈现LS特性。  相似文献   

仿生高效切削齿试验研究          下载免费PDF全文

高科  唐琼琼  孙阳  谢晓波 《探矿工程》2016,43(8):69-71

在仿生高效耐磨理论的指导下,以鼹鼠爪趾为仿生原型,引入了其经长期进化而具有的高效、耐磨的特性。选用CVD多晶金刚石为切削齿的切削单元,采用真空热压烧结工艺制备仿生高效切削齿,并将其与常规PDC齿、仿生PDC齿的耐磨性和切削效率进行对比试验,结果显示：仿生高效切削齿的耐磨性较常规PDC齿提高23%;切削效率较常规PDC齿提高1.49倍,较仿生PDC齿提高48%。初步证明了仿生高效切削齿工艺的可行性,为下一步高效切削钻头的研究奠定了坚实的基础。  相似文献