Statistical prediction of heavy rain in South Korea     

Keon Tae SOHN  Jeong Hyeong LEE  Soon Hwan LEE  Chan Su RYU 《大气科学进展》2005,22(5):703-710

1. Introduction In recent decades, extreme weather events seem to be growing in frequency and risk due to water-related disasters. According to the World Meteorological Or- ganization report (ISDR and WMO, 2004) on World Water Day, 22 March 2004, the economic losses caused by water-related disasters, including floods, droughts and tropical cyclones, are on an increasing trend as follows: the yearly mean in the 1970s was about 131 billion US dollars, 204 billion dollars in the 1980s, and …  相似文献   

Sensitivity of MM5 and WRF mesoscale model predictions of surface winds in a typhoon to planetary boundary layer parameterizations   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Ji Hye Kwun  You-Keun Kim  Jang-Won Seo  Ju Hee Jeong  Sung Hyup You 《Natural Hazards》2009,51(1):63-77

Sea surface winds and coastal winds, which have a significant influence on the ocean environment, are very difficult to predict. Although most planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations have demonstrated the capability to represent many meteorological phenomena, little attention has been paid to the precise prediction of winds at the lowest PBL level. In this study, the ability to simulate sea winds of two widely used mesoscale models, fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5) and weather research and forecasting model (WRF), were compared. In addition, PBL sensitivity experiments were performed using Medium-Range Forecasts (MRF), Eta, Blackadar, Yonsei University (YSU), and Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ) during Typhoon Ewiniar in 2006 to investigate the optimal PBL parameterizations for predicting sea winds accurately. The horizontal distributions of winds were analyzed to discover the spatial features. The time-series analysis of wind speed from five sensitivity experimental cases was compared by correlation analysis with surface observations. For the verification of sea surface winds, QuikSCAT satellite 10-m daily mean wind data were used in root-mean-square error (RMSE) and bias error (BE) analysis. The MRF PBL using MM5 produced relatively smaller wind speeds, whereas YSU and MYJ using WRF produced relatively greater wind speeds. The hourly surface observations revealed increasingly strong winds after 0300 UTC, July 10, with most of the experiments reproducing observations reliably. YSU and MYJ using WRF showed the best agreements with observations. However, MRF using MM5 demonstrated underestimated winds. The conclusions from the correlation analysis and the RMSE and BE analysis were compatible with the above-mentioned results. However, some shortcomings were identified in the improvements of wind prediction. The data assimilation of topographical data and asynoptic observations along coast lines and satellite data in sparsely observed ocean areas should make it possible to improve the accuracy of sea surface wind predictions.  相似文献   

应用九层全球大气格点模式进行跨季度短期气候预测系统性试验   总被引：24，自引：3，他引：21       下载免费PDF全文

郎咸梅  王会军  姜大膀 《地球物理学报》2004,47(1):19-24

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所9层大气环流模式（IAP9L AGCM）对夏季气候进行了30年（ 1970～1999年）集合回报试验,并采用统计学分析方法对跨季度夏季短期气候的可预测性问 题进行了初步探讨. 结果表明,该模式对对流层中、高层大气环流的预测能力强于低层,位 势高度场和表面气温的可预测性最大,而降水的可预测性则相对较小. 对流层中、高层位势 高度场的可预测性基本呈带状分布,越靠近赤道可预测性越高;而降水的可预测性基本局限 于赤道东太平洋及热带个别区域. 由此可见,降水的预测极为困难和复杂,订正系 统的研究和寻找新的预报物理因子非常重要.   相似文献   

西藏高原上地幔的精细结构与构造--地震层析成像给出的启示   总被引：29，自引：8，他引：21       下载免费PDF全文

赵文津  薛光琦  吴珍汉  赵逊  刘葵  史大年  J.Mechie  D.Nelson  L.Brown  T.Hearn 《地球物理学报》2004,47(3):449-455

用布置在亚东—格尔木的164个流动地震台站记录的926个远震事件的24241条射线,进行远震P波层析成像处理,高分辨率的西藏高原上地幔的速度结构图,显示了印度巨厚地幔岩石圈在向高原之下推进的过程中,在高喜马拉雅之下拆分成上、下两层,这是发生的第一次拆沉. 下层从高喜马拉雅以下约以22°的角度向高原北部插入到350km 深;而其上层则向北伸展直到雁石坪,并构成了高原薄的地幔岩石圈. 在雁石坪北（33.7°N）,当其与亚洲大陆岩石圈地幔相遇后发生断离并下沉. 再次证实了五道梁（35.27°N）深部低速体的存在,本区内地壳内低速物质可能与上述运动有联系,反映了深层热物质的上涌.  相似文献   

凤凰山地区蒲江-新津-德阳隐伏断裂反射波法地震勘探与断裂活动性研究          下载免费PDF全文

何强  李录明  赖敏  黎大虎  黄伟 《地震地质》2004,26(4):706-715

利用反射波法地震勘探确定了在凤凰山地区蒲江-新津-德阳隐伏断裂通过的具体位置以及断裂的规模和性质,证明了该断裂在向东俯冲的过程中错切了晚更新统沉积物,具有明显的第四纪活动性,对凤凰山台地的形成起到了一定的控制作用。地面地质调查及历史地震研究也证明蒲江-新津-德阳隐伏断裂具有晚更新世活动性,且断裂南段的活动性明显强于北段,表明该断裂的北段是成都平原内部的一条弱地震活动带。同时,文中还对在城市近郊人烟繁杂地带反射波法地震勘探中野外观测系统的布置及地震参数的选取进行了探索,小道间距、小偏移距、多接收道、短排列、多次覆盖、高频检波器接收的工作方法和野外地震参数的合理选取对实现主要干扰波和反射波信号的有效分离,提高地震勘探分辨率起到了至关重要的作用  相似文献   

亚洲大陆主要活动块体的现今构造应力数值模拟     

戴黎明  李三忠  楼达  索艳慧  刘鑫  余珊  周淑慧 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2013,43(2):469-483

亚洲大陆晚新生代和现代构造变形以活动地块为主要特征,表现为在统一构造格局下不同地块间具有不同的运动方式和速度。为了研究这些具有不同运动学性质块体间的相互作用以及构造变形特征,基于亚洲大陆的总体构造格局构建了二维有限元模型。根据模拟结果,对比已知GPS数据、震源机制解以及地质调查数据等,定量分析了大陆内部主要活动地块构造应力场的分布特征,并探讨了影响亚洲大陆现今构造变形特征的主要因素。结果表明：在我国的西部陆块内,由于周边一系列近EW向弧形活动构造带的存在,导致其内部次级块体运动速率的衰减,从而进一步导致应力环境的变化,由青藏中部的挤压-拉张环境逐渐转变为塔里木、天山地区的完全挤压环境;在西伯利亚地块和印度板块的联合挤压作用下,华北地块上地壳的应力表现为较弱的挤压环境,而在该种应力环境下块体内部伸展构造的成因很可能与其深部的动力学环境有关;华南地块的运动方向与台湾造山带相反,从而形成一个秦岭-大别造山带以南的较强烈的挤压-拉张区;在印度-澳大利亚板块和菲律宾俯冲板块的联合挤压作用下,巽他地块作为华南地块和印支地块的逃逸窗口,表现出以婆罗洲、南海为中心近圆弧形的弱挤压区以及环绕挤压区外缘挤压-拉张区的应力分布特征。  相似文献   

基于15N同位素技术的岩溶地下河硝酸盐污染变化特征研究——以重庆青木关地下河为例     

王开然  贾亚男  胡大超 《中国岩溶》2013,32(1):57-63

根据2010年5月至2010年10月每月对青木关地下河河水的监测数据,利用15N同位素技术并结合水化学指标,分析地下河的水化学特征以及硝态氮来源的时空变化特征。结果表明,地下河出口丁家龙洞硝态氮浓度(5.077mg/L)比入口天池硝态氮浓度(0.842mg/L)高6倍多。入口天池处地下河河水硝态氮浓度比较低,δ15N浓度变化范围为-7.0475‰~+7.059‰,变化幅度不大,说明该点的氮污染较低,地下水受外界影响较小,污水和粪便不是主要的δ15N来源。出口丁家龙洞处的δ15N浓度变化范围在-21.453‰~+37.825‰,总体浓度高且变化幅度大,受上游养猪场粪便直接排入及降水影响较大。   相似文献   

Massive sedimentation of fine sediment with organic matter and enhanced benthic-pelagic coupling by an artificial dyke in semi-enclosed Chonsu Bay, Korea     

Lee JS  Kim KH  Shim J  Han JH  Choi YH  Khang BJ 《Marine pollution bulletin》2012,64(1):153-163

To assess the impact of an artificial dyke in Chonsu Bay (CBD) on the organic carbon (C(org)) cycle, we measured excess (210)Pb activities, C(org) and nitrogen content in sediment cores. The C(org) oxidation rates (C(ox)) on the surface sediment and benthic nutrient fluxes were also quantified with an in situ benthic chamber. The higher excess (210)Pb inventory, C(org) and nitrogen in cores near the CBD indicated lateral transport and local, massive deposition of particulate matter due to tidal circulation altered by artificial dyke construction. The C(ox) in sediment near the CBD was about twice as high as that out of the bay, suggesting the importance of benthic remineralization of organic matter. The benthic fluxes of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphate were four to six times higher than those outside the bay, corresponding to 141% and 131% respectively, of the requirements for primary production.  相似文献   

Magnetic susceptibility and its relationship with paleoenvironments, diagenesis and remagnetization: examples from the Devonian carbonates of Belgium     

Anne-Christine Da Silva  Mark J. Dekkers  Cédric Mabille  Frédéric Boulvain 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2012,56(3):677-704

To better understand the origin of the initial magnetic susceptibility (??_in) signal in carbonate sequences, a rock magnetic investigation that includes analysis of acquisition curves of the isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM) and hysteresis parameters, was undertaken on Devonian carbonates from the Villers and Tailfer sections, Belgium. Both sections are divided into a lower unit, dominated by biostromal and external ramp facies (biostromal unit) and an upper unit, only consisting of lagoonal facies (lagoonal unit). The variations in ??_in signal are mainly driven by magnetite variation, mostly pseudo-single-domain (PSD) magnetite. Clay minerals, pyrite, hematite and obviously calcite and dolomite are also present but their contribution to the ??_in pattern is not significant. There is a correlation between detrital proxies (Zr, Rb, Al₂O₃, TiO₂) and ??_in for the Tailfer biostromal unit and the entire Villers section. The pervasive presence of fine-grained magnetite is interpreted as related to remagnetization. In absence of external fluids, the iron released during the smectite to illite transition remains in situ. In those situations ??_in may reflect an inherited primary synsedimentary signal. In the lagoonal unit of the Tailfer section, remagnetization appears to have obscured the original detrital information prompting the need for an evaluation of the composition of the susceptibility signal for individual case studies.  相似文献   

大功率激电在承德槽子沟金矿勘查中的应用     

郭继颂  李达  刘志远  刘国辉 《火山地质与矿产》2012,(3):168-174

应用大功率激电法对深部隐伏矿体的探测是一种行之有效的方法。通过激电中梯对承德槽子沟金矿区进行激电面积性测量,圈定出与金矿伴生的金属硫化物及氧化物引起的激电异常分布区带,利用激电测深查明地下极化异常体的展布,而后结合已知地质、物性资料布置验证钻孔,并取得了较好的勘查效果。本文总结出利用大功率激电方法勘查隐伏金矿的行之有效工作模式,该找矿模式可广泛应用于同类隐伏金矿的勘探之中,必将有力提高物探方法寻找隐伏金矿的勘探水平。  相似文献