A review of the assessments of the major fisheries resources in South Africa     

CL de Moor  SJ Johnston  A Brandão  RA Rademeyer  JP Glazer  LB Furman 《African Journal of Marine Science》2015,37(3):285-311

The waters off South Africa's coastline boast a rich mix of commercially fished species. Quantitative assessments of these marine resources have developed from simple methods first applied in the 1970s, to models that encompass a wide range of methodologies. The more valuable resources have undergone regular assessments in recent decades, with frequencies closely related to the management approach employed for each fishery. Many of these assessments form the operating models used to simulation-test candidate management procedures. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the assessments of 11 of the most important fisheries resources in South Africa. Some assessments use simple biomass dynamics models, whereas others are a hybrid of age- and length-based models, each designed to model the specific characteristics of the resource and fishery concerned. Many of the assessments have been disaggregated by species/stock and/or area as related multispecies/stock/ distribution hypotheses have arisen. This paper explores the similarities and differences in the data available and the methods applied. The review indicates that, whereas the status of three of these resources cannot be estimated reliably at present, the status of six resources is considered to be reasonable to good, whereas that of abalone Haliotis midae and West Coast rock lobster Jasus lalandii remains poor.  相似文献   

The 2dF galaxy redshift survey: clustering properties of radio galaxies     

Manuela Magliocchetti  Steve J. Maddox  Ed Hawkins  John A. Peacock  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Shaun Cole  Matthew Colless  Chris Collins  Warrick Couch  Gavin Dalton  Roberto de Propris  Simon P. Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard S. Ellis  Carlos S. Frenk  Karl Glazebrook  Carole A. Jackson  Bryn Jones  Ofer Lahav  Ian Lewis  Stuart Lumsden  Peder Norberg  Bruce A. Peterson  Will Sutherland  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,350(4):1485-1494

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A non-main-sequence secondary in SY Cancri     

Robert Connon Smith  Otto Mehes  Dave Vande Putte  Nigel A. Hawkins 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,360(1):364-374

Simultaneous spectroscopic and photometric observations of the Z Cam type dwarf nova SY Cancri were used to obtain absolute flux calibrations. A comparison of the photometric calibration with a wide-slit spectrophotometric calibration showed that either method is equally satisfactory. A radial velocity study of the secondary star, made using the far-red Na  i doublet, yielded a semi-amplitude of   K ₂= 127 ± 23 km s⁻¹  . Taking the published value of  86 ± 9 km s⁻¹  for K ₁ gives a mass ratio of   q = M ₂/ M ₁= 0.68 ± 0.14  ; this is very different from the value of  1.13 ± 0.35  quoted in the literature. Using the new lower mass ratio, and constraining the mass of the white dwarf to be within reasonable limits, then leads to a mass for the secondary star that is substantially less than would be expected for its orbital period if it satisfied a main-sequence mass–radius relationship. We find a spectral type of M0 that is consistent with that expected for a main-sequence star of the low mass we have found. However, in order to fill its Roche lobe, the secondary must be significantly larger than a main-sequence star of that mass and spectral type. The secondary is definitely not a normal main-sequence star.  相似文献   

The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: luminosity dependence of galaxy clustering     

Peder Norberg  Carlton M. Baugh  Ed Hawkins  Steve Maddox  John A. Peacock  Shaun Cole  Carlos S. Frenk  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Matthew Colless  Chris Collins  Warrick Couch  Gavin Dalton  Roberto De Propris  Simon P. Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard S. Ellis  Karl Glazebrook  Carole Jackson  Ofer Lahav  Ian Lewis  Stuart Lumsden  Darren Madgwick  Bruce A. Peterson  Will Sutherland  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,328(1):64-70

We investigate the dependence of the strength of galaxy clustering on intrinsic luminosity using the Anglo-Australian two degree field galaxy redshift survey (2dFGRS). The 2dFGRS is over an order of magnitude larger than previous redshift surveys used to address this issue. We measure the projected two-point correlation function of galaxies in a series of volume-limited samples. The projected correlation function is free from any distortion of the clustering pattern induced by peculiar motions and is well described by a power law in pair separation over the range     . The clustering of     galaxies in real space is well-fitted by a correlation length     and power-law slope     . The clustering amplitude increases slowly with absolute magnitude for galaxies fainter than M *, but rises more strongly at higher luminosities. At low luminosities, our results agree with measurements from the Southern Sky Redshift Survey 2 by Benoist et al. However, we find a weaker dependence of clustering strength on luminosity at the highest luminosities. The correlation function amplitude increases by a factor of 4.0 between     and −22.5, and the most luminous galaxies are 3.0 times more strongly clustered than L * galaxies. The power-law slope of the correlation function shows remarkably little variation for samples spanning a factor of 20 in luminosity. Our measurements are in very good agreement with the predictions of the hierarchical galaxy formation models of Benson et al.  相似文献   

Interactions of aquaculture and waste disposal in the coastal zone     

Zhai Xuemei  S. J. Hawkins 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2002,1(1):8-12

Throughout the world, the coastal zones of many countries are used increasingly for aquaculture in addition to other activities such as waste disposal. These activities can cause environmental problems and health problems where they overlap. The interaction between aquaculture and waste disposal, and their relationship with eutrophication are the subjects of this paper. Sewage discharge without adequate dispersion can lead to nutrient elevation and hence eutrophication which has clearly negative effects on aquaculture with the potential for toxic blooms. Blooms may be either toxic or anoxia-causing through the decay process or simply clog the gills of filter-feeding animals in some cases. With the development of aquaculture, especially intensive aquaculture, many environmental problems appeared, and have resulted in eutrophication in some areas. Eutrophication may destroy the health of whole ecosystem which is important for sustainable aquaculture. Sewage discharge may also cause serious public health problems. Filter-feeding shellfish growing in sewage-polluted waters accumulate micro-organims, including human pathogenic bacteria and viruses, and heavy metal ion, presenting a significant health risk. Some farmed animals may also accumulate heavy metals from sewage. Bivalves growing in areas affected by toxic algae blooms may accumulate toxins (such as PSP, DSP) which can be harmful to human beings.  相似文献   

The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: the environmental dependence of galaxy star formation rates near clusters     

Ian Lewis  Michael Balogh  Roberto De Propris  Warrick Couch  Richard Bower  Alison Offer  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Ivan K. Baldry  Carlton Baugh  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Shaun Cole  Matthew Colless  Chris Collins  Nicholas Cross  Gavin Dalton  Simon P. Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard S. Ellis  Carlos S. Frenk  Karl Glazebrook  Edward Hawkins  Carole Jackson  Ofer Lahav  Stuart Lumsden  Steve Maddox  Darren Madgwick  Peder Norberg  John A. Peacock  Will Percival  Bruce A. Peterson  Will Sutherland  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,334(3):673-683

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A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

L. Goddard  A. Kumar  A. Solomon  D. Smith  G. Boer  P. Gonzalez  V. Kharin  W. Merryfield  C. Deser  S. J. Mason  B. P. Kirtman  R. Msadek  R. Sutton  E. Hawkins  T. Fricker  G. Hegerl  C. A. T. Ferro  D. B. Stephenson  G. A. Meehl  T. Stockdale  R. Burgman  A. M. Greene  Y. Kushnir  M. Newman  J. Carton  I. Fukumori  T. Delworth 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):245-272

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.  相似文献   

Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Chun Kit Ho  Ed Hawkins  Len Shaffrey  Fiona M. Underwood 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(3-4):917-935

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2–5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6–9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2–5 years and 6–9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6–9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.  相似文献   

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Doug M. Smith  Adam A. Scaife  George J. Boer  Mihaela Caian  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Virginie Guemas  Ed Hawkins  Wilco Hazeleger  Leon Hermanson  Chun Kit Ho  Masayoshi Ishii  Viatcheslav Kharin  Masahide Kimoto  Ben Kirtman  Judith Lean  Daniela Matei  William J. Merryfield  Wolfgang A. Müller  Holger Pohlmann  Anthony Rosati  Bert Wouters  Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.  相似文献   

Substructure analysis of selected low-richness 2dFGRS clusters of galaxies     

William S. Burgett  Michael M. Vick  David S. Davis  Matthew Colless  Roberto De Propris  Ivan Baldry  Carlton Baugh  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Shaun Cole  Chris Collins  Warrick Couch  Nicholas Cross  Gavin Dalton  Simon Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard Ellis  Carlos S. Frenk  Karl Glazebrook  Edward Hawkins  Carole Jackson  Ofer Lahav  Ian Lewis  Stuart Lumsden  Steve Maddox  Darren Madgwick  Peder Norberg  John A. Peacock  Will Percival  Bruce Peterson  Will Sutherland  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,352(2):605-654

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