青藏铁路对西藏各经济部门发展影响的定量评估   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

杨吉萍  钟方雷  徐晓明  吴青柏 《冰川冻土》2018,40(5):1047-1055

青藏铁路对西藏经济发展影响重大,定量评估其对各经济部门发展的影响程度,是全面评价铁路交通基础设施效益、分析未来冰冻圈变化对线性工程及经济社会重大影响的基础。将灰色关联分析法与投入产出法相结合,既填补了关联度分析的黑箱式缺陷,又弥补了西藏投入产出调查缺乏长时间序列数据的问题,以此来认识青藏铁路对西藏经济发展的影响机理与路径。以2006-2016年统计数据为基础,采用灰色关联度模型计算青藏铁路与西藏各经济部门发展的灰色关联度值,表明铁路运输水平与西藏地区生产总值（GDP）、第三产业高度相关,其中与货运邮电业、住宿餐饮业两个部门关联度达到了0.9以上。在灰色关联度结果的基础上,运用西藏2012年投入产出表及投入产出模型计算铁路的直接作用,以及对各经济部门的间接波及作用,研究发现：青藏铁路建设及运营的劳动密集程度高,且通过灰色关联度较高行业的产品及服务影响其他行业,以直接作用、后向和前向波及作用、消费波及作用三种路径对区域经济的发展产生重要影响,扣除消费波及作用的总体贡献达到41.7亿元,相当于2012年西藏GDP的5.95%。由于铁路交通基础设施重要的直接作用及间接波及作用,建议在工程条件适宜地区加快铁路运输网络建设,同时,将工程设施的社会经济效益纳入冰冻圈服务功能核算中。  相似文献   

渤海湾盆地济阳坳陷碎屑锆石裂变径迹年龄记录的构造抬升事件   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李理  钟大赉 《岩石学报》2018,34(2):483-494

对采自渤海湾盆地东南部济阳坳陷的碎屑岩进行测年研究,目的是通过碎屑锆石裂变径迹年龄揭示源区及其抬升剥露史和构造热事件,为华北克拉通构造演化特别是元古宙构造演化提供新的热年代学约束。14件上白垩统-上新统砂岩/粉砂岩岩心样品测年结果显示,锆石裂变径迹年龄分布在308±35Ma~145±19Ma之间,且所有单颗粒锆石径迹年龄均大于其沉积年龄,表明这些锆石为碎屑锆石。除1件样品外,其余13件样品的单颗粒年龄的,可以用来识别源区及其构造抬升。未通过χ2检验的锆石二项式最佳拟合峰值年龄集中分为9组:P1(1187Ma)、P2(720~548Ma)、P3(526Ma)、P4(330~319Ma)、P5(296~274Ma)、P6(213~201Ma)、P7(195~177Ma、162Ma)、P8(134~102Ma)和P9(94Ma),加上通过χ2检验的三叠纪(230Ma),指示源区中元古代-晚白垩世经历的9期构造抬升/岩浆活动。它们分别是发生在中元古代的芹峪运动、新元古代的构造抬升(约720~575Ma)、~548Ma的蓟县运动;古生代~526Ma早寒武世末构造运动、海西期构造抬升;晚三叠世印支期挤压构造抬升、早-中侏罗世印支期弱挤压抬升、早白垩世燕山期强烈岩浆活动及晚白垩世燕山晚期的抬升。华北克拉通北缘、克拉通内部古陆和盆地内部是渤海湾盆地上白垩统-上新统的主要物源区,古生代以来剥露速率逐渐增大,古生代、三叠纪、早-中侏罗世和白垩纪分别为0.020~0.033mm/y,0.033~0.042mm/y,0.034~0.049mm/y和0.041~0.097mm/y,反映源区白垩纪构造/岩浆活动最强烈。锆石裂变径迹年龄记录的中元古代-晚白垩世构造运动对探讨华北克拉通的构造演化特别是元古宙的演化提供了年代学证据,综合分析推断华北克拉通可能参与了Rodinia超大陆的形成与裂解。  相似文献   

珠江口盆地西部珠三坳陷珠江组沉积演化     

钟泽红  徐万兴  刘芳  何卫军  王亚辉 《世界地质》2018,37(4):1122

为了加强珠三坳陷珠江组的油气勘探理论,笔者从层序格架、岩芯特征、有孔虫分布、岩石类型及岩性组合等方面,分析珠三坳陷及周缘珠江组三个层序的沉积特征及沉积演化规律:从S50--S60～S40--S41层序,岩芯特征呈现规律性变化,砂岩粒度减小、分选性增强,水动力条件从强-较强-弱转变;有孔虫丰度变化从零星中低值--连续中高值--连续中值,水深从浅-深-较深,神狐隆起从局部出露到完全沉没。古珠江三角洲及海南隆起—粤桂隆起物源三角洲是S50-S60及S41-S50层序的重点沉积体系。从S50-S60～S40-S41层序,古珠江三角洲规模从"大--中--小"依次演变,海南隆起—粤桂隆起物源三角洲呈"大-大-小/无"变化,浅海迅速扩张,仅半深海分布较稳定。  相似文献   

Development Phases and Mechanisms of Tectonic Fractures in the Longmaxi Formation Shale of the Dingshan Area in Southeast Sichuan Basin, China     

FAN Cunhui  HE Shun  ZHANG Yu  QIN Qirong  ZHONG Cheng 《《地质学报》英文版》2018,92(6):2351-2366

Shale gas has currently attracted much attention during oil and gas exploration and development. Fractures in shale have an important influence on the enrichment and preservation of shale gas. This work studied the developmental period and formation mechanism of tectonic fractures in the Longmaxi Formation shale in the Dingshan area of ??southeastern Sichuan Basin based on extensive observations of outcrops and cores, rock acoustic emission (Kaiser) experiments, homogenization temperature of fracture fill inclusions, apatite fission track, thermal burial history. The research shows that the fracture types of the Longmaxi Formation include tectonic fractures, diagenetic fractures and horizontal slip fractures. The main types are tectonic high-angle shear and horizontal slip fractures, with small openings, large spacing, low densities, and high degrees of filling. Six dominant directions of the fractures after correction by plane included NWW, nearly SN, NNW, NEE, nearly EW and NW. The analysis of field fracture stage and fracture system of the borehole suggests that the fractures in the Longmaxi Formation could be paired with two sets of plane X-shaped conjugate shear fractures, i.e., profile X-shaped conjugate shear fractures and extension fractures. The combination of qualitative geological analysis and quantitative experimental testing techniques indicates that the tectonic fractures in the Longmaxi Formation have undergone three periods of tectonic movement, namely mid-late Yanshanian movement (82–71.1 Ma), late Yanshanian and middle Himalaya movements (71.1–22.3 Ma), and the late Himalayan movement (22.3–0 Ma). The middle-late period of the Yanshanian movement and end of the Yanshanian movement-middle period of the Himalayan movement were the main fracture-forming periods. The fractures were mostly filled with minerals, such as calcite and siliceous. The homogenization temperature of fracture fill inclusions was high, and the paleo-stress value was large; the tectonic movement from the late to present period was mainly a slight transformation and superposition of existing fractures and tectonic systems. Based on the principle of tectonic analysis and theory of geomechanics, we clarified the mechanism of the fractures in the Longmaxi Formation, and established the genetic model of the Longmaxi Formation. The research on the qualitative and quantitative techniques of the fracture-phase study could be effectively used to analyze the causes of the marine shale gas fractures in the Sichuan Basin. The research findings and results provide important references and technical support for further exploration and development of marine shale gas in South China.  相似文献   

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on the Predictability of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Intensity     

钟权加  李建平  李舒文  王羱  丁瑞强  张立凤 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(4):355-367

The role of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the development and predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is examined using a large set of idealized numerical experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the onset time of rapid intensification of TC gradually decreases, and the peak intensity of TC gradually increases, with the increased magnitude of SST. The predictability limits of the maximum 10 m wind speed (MWS) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) are ~72 and ~84 hours, respectively. Comparisons of the analyses of variance for different simulation time confirm that the MWS and MSLP have strong signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) from 0-72 hours and a marked decrease beyond 72 hours. For the horizontal and vertical structures of wind speed, noticeable decreases in the magnitude of SNR can be seen as the simulation time increases, similar to that of the SLP or perturbation pressure. These results indicate that the SST as an external forcing signal plays an important role in TC intensity for up to 72 hours, and it is significantly weakened if the simulation time exceeds the predictability limits of TC intensity.  相似文献   

Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models     

钟水新  庄妍  胡胜  陈子通  丁伟钰  冯业荣  邓涛  刘显通  张艳霞  徐道生  戴光丰  蒙伟光 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(4):406-417

In the present study, the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated. The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further discussed. The results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over Henan. The maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan Province. The 24-h and 48-h Threat Score (TS) of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and 0.64. The comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score (FSS) verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and 0.87. The water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7 · 20. The north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye (Cempaka) over south China. The IVT over the lower troposphere (<500 hPa) showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level, especially in the planetary boundary layer (<700 hPa). More practical technical needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall, as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.  相似文献   

RTG与GPS相对定位联合作业的可行性分析     

敖德春  崔文刚  钟磊  袁航 《测绘与空间地理信息》2018,(2):134-137

近年来,RTG(Real Time Gipsy)技术的发展比较迅速,并且在一些行业中得到应用。本文阐述了GPS相对定位与RTG定位原理,并就GPS相对定位与RTG进行误差对比分析。根据行业标准与精度,对GPS相对定位与RTG在控制测量中联合作业的可行性进行探讨,提出联合作业的概念,主要为测绘人员布设控制网时提供参考,从而提高了工作效率,降低了项目成本。  相似文献   

川西北中二叠统栖霞组沉积特征及古地貌响应     

刘文栋  钟大康  孙海涛  曾鑫耀  梁雪祺  胡欣  李荣容  彭思桥  宋雨佳 《沉积学报》2021,39(5):1275-1291

川西北中二叠统栖霞组发育厚层白云岩储层,成为近年来四川盆地油气勘探开发的重点领域,但栖霞组有利相带分布和储层发育的主控因素并不明朗,制约了该地区油气勘探进展。根据野外露头、岩心、薄片、测井和地震资料,结合区域地质演化,对川西北栖霞组沉积特征、沉积格局以及古地貌进行研究发现:川西北栖霞组主要为碳酸盐岩台地沉积,自西北向东南方向依次发育盆地—斜坡相、台地边缘相和开阔台地相,并发育台缘滩或台内滩等若干亚相类型。其中栖一期沉积水体较深,为弱镶边碳酸盐岩台地形成期,台缘滩厚度薄,展布范围有限;栖二期为栖霞组主要成滩期,滩体厚度大,展布范围广,具典型镶边碳酸盐岩台地特征。栖霞组白云岩主要为台地边缘高能滩相沉积背景,栖霞组沉积期,研究区具西北高、东南低,西南高、东北低的古地貌格局,其不仅控制着台地边缘高能滩相的沉积分布,并进一步为该区白云岩储层发育奠定了基础,白云岩具有西北向东南、西南向东北逐渐减薄的特点。结合沉积演化和古地貌分析结果,认为古地貌为栖霞组白云岩发育的主要控制因素,西北及西南方向等古地貌高地为研究区栖霞组白云岩储层发育的有利沉积相带。  相似文献   

最近十多年来冰冻圈加速萎缩——IPCC第六次评估报告之冰冻圈变化解读     

钟歆玥  康世昌  郭万钦  吴晓东  陈金雷 《冰川冻土》2021,44(3):946-953

政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）于2021年8月发布了第六次评估报告第一工作组报告《气候变化2021：自然科学基础》。该报告基于最新的观测和模拟研究,评估了冰冻圈变化的现状,并采用CMIP6模式对未来变化进行了预估。报告明确指出,近十多年来冰冻圈呈现加速萎缩状态：北极海冰面积显著减小、厚度减薄、冰量迅速减少;格陵兰冰盖、南极冰盖和全球山地冰川物质亏损加剧;多年冻土温度升高、活动层增厚,海底多年冻土范围减少;北半球积雪范围也在明显变小,但积雪量有较大空间差异。冰冻圈的快速萎缩加速海平面的上升。未来人类活动对冰冻圈萎缩的影响将愈加显著,从而导致北极海冰面积继续减少乃至消失,冰盖和冰川物质将持续亏损,多年冻土和积雪的范围继续缩减。报告也提出,目前冰冻圈研究仍存在观测资料稀缺、模型对各影响因素的敏感性参数和过程描述亟需提升、对吸光性杂质的变化机制认知不足等问题,从而影响了对冰冻圈变化预估的准确性,未来需要重点关注。  相似文献   

HCW-90型全液压自动猫道钻杆支架起升同步性分析          下载免费PDF全文

盛洁  王清岩  钟蔚岭  李铠君  金赠伍 《探矿工程》2021,48(S1):316-323

本文针对HCW-90型全液压自动猫道的钻杆支架起升过程进行研究,采用多体动力学与液压控制系统联合仿真方法,分析了钻杆支架起升液压缸动作的同步性对钻杆从支架末端运动至平台档销限位处的动态过程的影响。重点讨论了起升液压缸同步性对管体空间位姿、动力学参数、管体运动至终了处与档销碰撞过程。进一步分析了管体受到限位后趋于稳定的动态过程和定位精度。此外,综合考虑管体运移的快速性、平稳性和定位准确性,对起升液压缸的液压控制系统的输入信号进行了合理调整,并在满足工作性能的前提下,提出了采用分流阀构建低成本液压控制系统的方案。  相似文献