Preparing for climate change in Washington State     

Lara C. Whitely Binder  Jennifer Krencicki Barcelos  Derek B. Booth  Meriel Darzen  Marketa McGuire Elsner  Richard Fenske  Thomas F. Graham  Alan F. Hamlet  John Hodges-Howell  J. Elizabeth Jackson  Catherine Karr  Patrick W. Keys  Jeremy S. Littell  Nathan Mantua  Jennifer Marlow  Don McKenzie  Michael Robinson-Dorn  Eric A. Rosenberg  Claudio O. Stöckle  Julie A. Vano 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):351-376

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.  相似文献   

Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution     

J. Elizabeth Jackson  Michael G. Yost  Catherine Karr  Cole Fitzpatrick  Brian K. Lamb  Serena H. Chung  Jack Chen  Jeremy Avise  Roger A. Rosenblatt  Richard A. Fenske 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):159-186

Illness and mortality related to heat and worsening air quality are core public health concerns associated with climate change projections. We examined the historical relationship between age- and cause-specific mortality rates from 1980 through 2006 and heat events at the 99th percentile of humidex values in the historic period from January 1, 1970 to December 31, 2006 in the greater Seattle area (King, Pierce and Snohomish counties), Spokane County, the Tri-Cities (Benton and Franklin counties) and Yakima County; the relative risks of mortality during heat events were applied to population and climate projections for Washington State to calculate number of deaths above the baseline (1980–2006) expected during projected heat events in 2025, 2045 and 2085. Three different warming scenarios were used in the analysis. Relative risks for the greater Seattle area showed a significant dose-response relationship between heat event duration and daily mortality rates for non-traumatic deaths for persons ages 45 and above, typically peaking at four days of exposure to humidex values above the 99th percentile. The largest number of projected excess deaths in all years and scenarios for the Seattle region was found for age 65 and above. Under the middle warming scenario, this age group is expected to have 96, 148 and 266 excess deaths from all non-traumatic causes in 2025, 2045 and 2085, respectively. We also examined projected excess deaths due to ground-level ozone concentrations at mid century (2045–2054) in King and Spokane counties. Current (1997–2006) ozone measurements and mid-twenty-first century ozone projections were coupled with dose-response data from the scientific literature to produce estimates overall and cardiopulmonary mortality. Daily maximum 8-h ozone concentrations are forecasted to be 16–28% higher in the mid twenty-first century compared to the recent decade of 1997–2006. By mid-century in King County the non-traumatic mortality rate related to ozone was projected to increase from baseline (0.026 per 100,000; 95% confidence interval 0.013–0.038) to 0.033 (95% CI 0.017–0.049). For the same health outcome in Spokane County, the baseline period rate of 0.058 (95% CI 0.030–0.085) was estimated increase to 0.068 (95% CI 0.035–0.100) by mid-century. The cardiopulmonary death rate per 100,000 due to ozone was estimated to increase from 0.011 (95% CI 0.005–0.017) to 0.015 (0.007–0.022) in King County, and from 0.027 (95% CI 0.013–0.042) to 0.032 (95% CI 0.015–0.049) in Spokane County. Public health interventions aimed at protecting Washington’s population from excessive heat and increased ozone concentrations will become increasingly important for preventing deaths, especially among older adults. Furthermore, heat and air quality related illnesses that do not result in death, but are serious nevertheless, may be reduced by the same measures.  相似文献   

Lander radioscience for obtaining the rotation and orientation of Mars     

Veronique Dehant  William Folkner  Etienne Renotte  Daniel Orban  Sami Asmar  Georges Balmino  Jean-Pierre Barriot  Jeremy Benoist  Richard Biancale  Jens Biele  Frank Budnik  Stefaan Burger  Olivier de Viron  Bernd Häusler  Özgur Karatekin  Sébastien Le Maistre  Philippe Lognonné  Michel Menvielle  Michel Mitrovic  Martin Pätzold  Marie Yseboodt 《Planetary and Space Science》2009,57(8-9):1050-1067

The paper presents the concept, the objectives, the approach used, and the expected performances and accuracies of a radioscience experiment based on a radio link between the Earth and the surface of Mars. This experiment involves radioscience equipment installed on a lander at the surface of Mars. The experiment with the generic name lander radioscience (LaRa) consists of an X-band transponder that has been designed to obtain, over at least one Martian year, two-way Doppler measurements from the radio link between the ExoMars lander and the Earth (ExoMars is an ESA mission to Mars due to launch in 2013). These Doppler measurements will be used to obtain Mars’ orientation in space and rotation (precession and nutations, and length-of-day variations). More specifically, the relative position of the lander on the surface of Mars with respect to the Earth ground stations allows reconstructing Mars’ time varying orientation and rotation in space.Precession will be determined with an accuracy better by a factor of 4 (better than the 0.1% level) with respect to the present-day accuracy after only a few months at the Martian surface. This precession determination will, in turn, improve the determination of the moment of inertia of the whole planet (mantle plus core) and the radius of the core: for a specific interior composition or even for a range of possible compositions, the core radius is expected to be determined with a precision decreasing to a few tens of kilometers.A fairly precise measurement of variations in the orientation of Mars’ spin axis will enable, in addition to the determination of the moment of inertia of the core, an even better determination of the size of the core via the core resonance in the nutation amplitudes. When the core is liquid, the free core nutation (FCN) resonance induces a change in the nutation amplitudes, with respect to their values for a solid planet, at the percent level in the large semi-annual prograde nutation amplitude and even more (a few percent, a few tens of percent or more, depending on the FCN period) for the retrograde ter-annual nutation amplitude. The resonance amplification depends on the size, moment of inertia, and flattening of the core. For a large core, the amplification can be very large, ensuring the detection of the FCN, and determination of the core moment of inertia.The measurement of variations in Mars’ rotation also determines variations of the angular momentum due to seasonal mass transfer between the atmosphere and ice caps. Observations even for a short period of 180 days at the surface of Mars will decrease the uncertainty by a factor of two with respect to the present knowledge of these quantities (at the 10% level).The ultimate objectives of the proposed experiment are to obtain information on Mars’ interior and on the sublimation/condensation of CO₂ in Mars’ atmosphere. Improved knowledge of the interior will help us to better understand the formation and evolution of Mars. Improved knowledge of the CO₂ sublimation/condensation cycle will enable better understanding of the circulation and dynamics of Mars’ atmosphere.  相似文献   

Apatite as a monitor of late-stage magmatic processes at Volcán Irazú, Costa Rica   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Jeremy W. Boyce  Richard L. Hervig 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2009,157(2):135-145

Apatite phenocrysts from the 1963 and 1723 eruptions of Irazú volcano (Costa Rica) record a volatile evolution history that confirms previous melt inclusion studies, and provides additional information concerning the relative and absolute timing of subvolcanic magmatic events. Measurements of H, Cl, and F by secondary ion mass spectrometry reveal multiple populations of apatite in both 1723 and 1963 magmas. Assuming nominal apatite/melt partition coefficients allows us to compare the pattern of melt inclusions and apatites in ternary space, demonstrating the fidelity of the record preserved in apatite, and revealing a complex history of magma mixing with at least two components. The preservation of heterogeneous populations of apatite and of internally heterogeneous crystals requires short timescales (days to years) for these magmatic processes to occur.  相似文献   

Sedimentary and faunal events revealed by a revised correlation of post‐glacial Hirnantian (Late Ordovician) strata in the Welsh Basin,UK     

Jeremy R. Davies  Richard A. Waters  Mark Williams  David Wilson  David I. Schofield  Jan A. Zalasiewicz 《Geological Journal》2009,44(3):322-340

The discovery of a previously unrecognized unconformity and of new faunas in the type Llandovery area underpins a revised correlation of Hirnantian strata in mid Wales. This has revealed the sedimentary and faunal events which affected the Lower Palaeozoic Welsh Basin during the global rise in sea level that followed the end‐Ordovician glacial maximum and has allowed their interpretation in the context of local and global influences. In peri‐basinal shelfal settings the onset of post‐glacial deepening is recorded by an unfossiliferous, transgressive shoreface sequence (Cwm Clyd Sandstone and Garth House formations) which rests unconformably on Rawtheyan rocks, deformed during an episode of pre‐Hirnantian tectonism. In the deep water facies of the basin centre, this same sequence boundary is now recognized as the contact between fine‐grained, re‐sedimented mudstones and an underlying regressive sequence of turbidite sandstones and conglomerates; it is at a level lower than previously cited and calls into question the established lithostratigraphy. In younger Hirnantian strata, graptolites associated with the newly recognized Ystradwalter Member (Chwefri Formation) demonstrate that this distal shelf unit correlates with the persculptus graptolite‐bearing Mottled Mudstone Member of the basinal succession. Together these members record an important macrofaunal recolonization of the Welsh Basin and mark a key event in the post‐glacial transgression. Further deepening saw the establishment of a stratified water column and the imposition of anoxic bottom water conditions across the basin floor. These post‐glacial Hirnantian events are consistent with the re‐establishment of connections between a silled Welsh Basin and the open Iapetus Ocean. However, a comparison with other areas suggests that each event records a separate deepening episode within a pulsed glacio‐eustatic transgression, while also reflecting changes in post‐glacial climate and patterns of oceanic circulation and associated biotic flux. British Geological Survey © NERC 2009. All rights reserved.  相似文献   

The distribution of carbon monoxide in the lower atmosphere of Venus     

Daniel V. Cotton  Jeremy Bailey  D. Crisp  V.S. Meadows 《Icarus》2012,217(2):570-584

We have obtained spatially resolved near-infrared spectroscopy of the Venus nightside on 15 nights over three observing seasons. We use the depth of the CO absorption band at 2.3 μm to map the two-dimensional distribution of CO across both hemispheres. Radiative transfer models are used to relate the measured CO band depth to the volume mixing ratio of CO. The results confirm previous investigations in showing a general trend of increased CO abundances at around 60° latitude north and south as compared with the equatorial regions. Observations taken over a few nights generally show very similar CO distributions, but significant changes are apparent over longer periods. In past studies it has been assumed that the CO latitudinal variation occurs near 35 km altitude, at which K-band sensitivity to CO is greatest. By modeling the detailed spectrum of the excess CO at high latitudes we show that it occurs at altitudes around 45 km, much higher than has previously been assumed, and that there cannot be significant contribution from levels of 36 km or lower. We suggest that this is most likely due to downwelling of CO-rich gas from the upper atmosphere at these latitudes, with the CO being removed by around 40 km through chemical processes such as the reaction with SO₃.  相似文献   

Extending the Capture Map Concept to Estimate Discrete and Risk-Based Streamflow Depletion Potential     

Jeremy T. White  Linzy K. Foster  Michael N. Fienen 《Ground water》2021,59(4):571-580

A popular and contemporary use of numerical groundwater models is to estimate the discrete relation between groundwater extraction and surface-water/groundwater exchange. Previously, the concept of a “capture map” has been put forward as a means to effectively summarize this relation for decision-making consumption. While capture maps have enjoyed success in the environmental simulation industry, they are deterministic, ignoring uncertainty in the underlying model. Furthermore, capture maps are not typically calculated in a manner that facilitates analysis of varying combinations of extraction locations and/or reaches. That is, they are typically constructed with focus on a single reach or group of reaches. The former of these limitations is important for conveying risk to decision makers and stakeholders, while the latter is important for decision-making support related to surface-water management, where future foci may include reaches that were not the focus of the original capture analysis. Herein, we use the concept of a response matrix to generalize the theory of the capture-map approach to estimate spatially discrete streamflow depletion potential. We also use first-order, second-moment uncertainty estimation techniques with the concept of “risk shifting” to place capture maps and streamflow depletion potential in a stochastic, risk-based framework. Our approach is demonstrated for an integrated groundwater/surface-water model of the lower San Antonio River, Texas, USA.  相似文献   

Constraining basin thermal history and petroleum generation using palaeoclimate data in the Piceance Basin,Colorado          下载免费PDF全文

Yao Tong  Daniel E. Ibarra  Jeremy K. Caves  Tapan Mukerji  Stephan A. Graham 《Basin Research》2017,29(4):542-553

Careful assessment of basin thermal history is critical to modelling petroleum generation in sedimentary basins. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to constraining basin thermal history using palaeoclimate temperature reconstructions and study its impact on estimating source rock maturation and hydrocarbon generation in a terrestrial sedimentary basin. We compile mean annual temperature (MAT) estimates from macroflora assemblage data to capture past surface temperature variation for the Piceance Basin, a high‐elevation, intermontane, sedimentary basin in Colorado, USA. We use macroflora assemblage data to constrain the temporal evolution of the upper thermal boundary condition and to capture the temperature change with basin uplift. We compare these results with the case where the upper thermal boundary condition is based solely upon a simplified latitudinal temperature estimate with no elevation effect. For illustrative purposes, 2 one‐dimensional (1‐D) basin models are constructed using these two different upper thermal boundary condition scenarios and additional geological and geochemical input data in order to investigate the impact of the upper thermal boundary condition on petroleum source rock maturation and kerogen transformation processes. The basin model predictions indicate that the source rock maturation is very sensitive to the upper thermal boundary condition for terrestrial basins with variable elevation histories. The models show substantial differences in source rock maturation histories and kerogen transformation ratio over geologic time. Vitrinite reflectance decreases by 0.21%Ro, source rock transformation ratio decreases 10.5% and hydrocarbon mass generation decreases by 16% using the macroflora assemblage data. In addition, we find that by using the macroflora assemblage data, the modelled depth profiles of vitrinite reflectance better matches present‐day measurements. These differences demonstrate the importance of constraining thermal boundary conditions, which can be addressed by palaeotemperature reconstructions from palaeoclimate and palaeo‐elevation data for many terrestrial basins. Although the palaeotemperature reconstruction compiled for this study is region specific, the approach presented here is generally applicable for other terrestrial basin settings, particularly basins which have undergone substantial subaerial elevation change over time.  相似文献   

A GPS-Supported Gravity Survey in the Amazon of Ecuador   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mamadou Balde  Jeremy Fishman  Carlos L. V. Aiken  Mohamed Abdel-Salam  Mauricio F. de la Fuente 《GPS Solutions》1999,2(3):3-17

The growing importance and effectiveness of the Global Positioning System (GPS) in positioning geophysical surveys is now well established. In Ecuador's Amazon basin the use of GPS was the determining factor in the successful completion of a gravity survey carried out in 1994. Over 500 gravity stations, spaced from 1 to 5 km apart and positioned by GPS, were collected in the jungle environment in the country's southeast, where the preexisting data, of variable and unknown quality, were mostly confined to areas along the major rivers. This station densification, which includes the reoccupation of selected points, contributed to increase the gravity coverage; it also allowed us to evaluate and correct 1100 preexisting data points in the area, so that the different surveys can be merged. The composite data set is used for a geologic analysis of the study area, where previously unknown structures are discovered. ? 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.  相似文献   

Growth and mortality of juvenile winter flounder in two New England estuaries     

Carol Meise  Jeremy S. Collie  J. Widman  P. Howell 《Estuaries and Coasts》1999,22(2):297-303

A length-based model for calculating growth and mortality of juvenile winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) populations has been developed. This model is based on work by Sullivan et al. (1990) and incorporates the von Bertalanffy growth equation, including stochasticity in growth, and a mortality rate that decreases exponentially with size. The length-based model was fit to observed size-frequency distributions, and model likelihood profiles were generated to produce 95% confidence intervals about parameter estimates. We analyzed size-frequency distributions of 3 to 15 cm juvenile winter flounder, collected with a 1-m beam trawl, at monthly intervals from June to October during 1993 and 1994. Growth rates were higher at a contaminated site, New Haven Harbor, than at a clean site, the Connecticut River estuary, however, the parameter estimates had overlapping 95% confidence intervals. Mortality rates were similar at the two sites.  相似文献