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1.
风和径流量对长江口缺氧影响的数值模拟 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
受自然和人类活动的影响，海洋缺氧现象日益严重，威胁着海洋生态环境，海洋缺氧问题已经引起了人们的广泛关注。本文应用区域海洋模式并耦合生态模式，对东海的生态系统进行了数值模拟和分析研究。与观测数据比较显示，该模型能较好地模拟长江口外生态变量的分布趋势。另外本文通过设置不同敏感性实验，探讨风和径流量对长江口底层缺氧现象的影响，结果分析表明，风和径流量对长江口外缺氧区的形成有显著的影响。径流量变化虽然对长江口外缺氧区的季节变化影响并不显著，但是对缺氧区域面积却存在显著的影响。径流量增加，水体层化增强，表层叶绿素浓度增加，最终导致缺氧区域范围扩展；径流量减小，水体层化减弱，表层叶绿素浓度减小，缺氧区域范围缩小。风向和风速的改变不仅影响长江口外缺氧区的季节变化，还影响缺氧区域面积。 相似文献
2.
In this study, sea surface salinity(SSS) Level 3(L3) daily product derived from soil moisture active passive(SMAP)during the year 2016, was validated and compared with SSS daily products derived from soil Moisture and ocean salinity(SMOS) and in-situ measurements. Generally, the root mean square error(RMSE) of the daily SSS products is larger along the coastal areas and at high latitudes and is smaller in the tropical regions and open oceans. Comparisons between the two types of daily satellite SSS product revealed that the RMSE was higher in the daily SMOS product than in the SMAP, whereas the bias of the daily SMOS was observed to be less than that of the SMAP when compared with Argo floats data. In addition, the latitude-dependent bias and RMSE of the SMAP SSS were found to be primarily influenced by the precipitation and the sea surface temperature(SST). Then, a regression analysis method which has adopted the precipitation and SST data was used to correct the larger bias of the daily SMAP product. It was confirmed that the corrected daily SMAP product could be used for assimilation in high-resolution forecast models, due to the fact that it was demonstrated to be unbiased and much closer to the in-situ measurements than the original uncorrected SMAP product. 相似文献
3.
西北太平洋浪流相互作用对有效波高的影响研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
西北太平洋强流区会对海浪的特征和分布产生显著的影响,尤其是研究台风过程中海流与海浪的相互作用具有重要的研究意义。本文以ROMS海洋模式和SWAN海浪模式为基础,构建了浪流耦合模式系统,对2013年10月6-17日间的台风“丹娜丝”、“百合”、“韦帕”过程中西北太平洋浪流相互作用中海流对有效波高的影响进行了研究。通过对比模式模拟有效波高与浮标观测资料,发现耦合后的有效波高比非耦合结果更接近观测值,耦合模式中海流的存在对有效波高的分布有明显的影响。研究表明,特别是在有效波高峰值处,海流引起的有效波高增大最大可达1 m。海浪浪向及流向的空间分布以及中国近海浮标处浪向与流向的时间序列表明,流向与浪向反向时,海流的影响造成有效波高增大;二者同向时,有效波高减小。海流对有效波高的调整会沿着海浪传播的方向传播相当一段距离。在西北太平洋的海浪场计算中,引入海流的耦合模式计算结果对改善强流区海浪预报具有重要意义,并且海流的模拟精度对于高精度的海浪预报非常重要。 相似文献
4.
CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
基于观测和再分析资料;利用多种指标和方法评估了国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中21个模式对中国近海海温的月、季节和年际变化模拟能力。多模式集合能够再现气候平均意义下近海海温的空间分布特征;但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黄海;集合平均与观测差别比较明显。在年际尺度上;与观测数据对比;模式模拟海温与Niño3指数相关性较小。中国近海海表面温度在1960-2002年有明显的升高趋势;从2003年开始增温趋缓。评估结果表明;ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八个模式对中国近海海温的变化有较好的模拟能力。利用ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM这5个模式结果对中国近海海温未来的变化进行了预估。在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下;未来近100年中国近海海温有明显升高趋势;最优模式多模式集合平均增温分别可达到1.5℃、3.3℃;净热通量变化和平流变化共同促进了东海升温。 相似文献
5.
The effects of wave–current interactions on ocean surface waves induced by Hurricane Hugo in and around the Charleston Harbor and its adjacent coastal waters are examined by using a three-dimensional (3D) wave–current coupled modeling system. The 3D storm surge modeling component of the coupled system is based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), the wave modeling component is based on the third generation wave model, Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and the inundation model is adopted from [Xie, L., Pietrafesa, L. J., Peng, M., 2004. Incorporation of a mass-conserving inundation scheme into a three-dimensional storm surge model. J. Coastal Res., 20, 1209–1223]. The results indicate that the change of water level associated with the storm surge is the primary cause for wave height changes due to wave–surge interaction. Meanwhile, waves propagating on top of surge cause a feedback effect on the surge height by modulating the surface wind stress and bottom stress. This effect is significant in shallow coastal waters, but relatively small in offshore deep waters. The influence of wave–current interaction on wave propagation is relatively insignificant, since waves generally propagate in the direction of the surface currents driven by winds. Wave–current interactions also affect the surface waves as a result of inundation and drying induced by the storm. Waves break as waters retreat in regions of drying, whereas waves are generated in flooded regions where no waves would have occurred without the flood water. 相似文献
6.
2002/03年厄尔尼诺事件,是暖海温中心出现在赤道中太平洋区域的一种新型厄尔尼诺,即中太平洋型厄尔尼诺。本文基于一个厄尔尼诺预测系统,利用三组回报试验来详细区分海洋表层和次表层初始状态对预报2002/03年中太平洋型厄尔尼诺事件的作用,并由此来探寻对预报厄尔尼诺演变过程最有利的初始条件。回报试验分为三组:(1)仅同化海表温度观测(sea surface temperature;简称SST)来优化海洋表层初始状态(Assim_SST);(2)仅同化海表高度观测(sea level;简称SL)来更新海洋次表层初始状态(Assim_SL);(3)同时同化SST和SL观测来一起更新海洋表层和次表层初始状态(Assim_SST+SL)。回报试验结果表明,三种不同的初始条件都可以使模式提前一年成功地预报2002/03年厄尔尼诺事件,并且"Assim_SST+SL"回报试验的效果最好。三组回报试验结果间的对比表明:海洋表层和次表层初始状态均对成功地预报该事件有重要作用,但其作用分别集中在事件发展的不同阶段。精确的海洋表层初始状态更容易激发模式预报出一次厄尔尼诺事件,而更合理的海洋次表层初始状态则能有效地提高厄尔尼诺事件预报的强度。 相似文献
7.
GPS掩星资料三维变分同化对台风模式预报的改进试验 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文尝试了GPSRO COSMIC资料在中尺度数值模式中的应用,利用COSMIC资料受云和降水影响较小,且有高数据精度、高垂直分辨率等优点,以改善模式初始场,进而提高预报准确度。模式采用中尺度气象模式WRF V3.0.1版本及其三维变分同化系统3DVAR,利用NCEP再分析资料、GTS资料和COSMIC资料对2009年第8号台风"莫拉克"登陆台湾岛前到登陆台湾岛的过程进行了模拟试验,并对温度、露点温度、对流有效位能等要素进行了诊断分析。试验结果表明:该项试验成功将COSMIC资料同化进模式,加深对"莫拉克"热力结构特征的了解,有效改善台风降水和路径预报,其中仅屏东县单点降水预报提高600 mm左右,24 h预报路径误差提高80 km以上。同时对提高台风强度预报起到积极作用。 相似文献
8.
Hypoxia is increasingly reported off the Changjiang River Estuary with the confluence of multiple high volume nutrient sources. The Regional Ocean Modeling System coupled with a biological model was used to analyze the effect of different nutrient sources on the development of hypoxia off the Changjiang River Estuary. By comparing to observed data, our model suitably captured the regional dynamics of chlorophyll a, dissolved oxygen, and nutrient concentration. A series of sensitivity experiments were conducted to investigate the hypoxia response to the various nutrient sources, such as loading from the Changjiang River, Kuroshio and Taiwan Warm Current. Our model results indicated that nutrients from different sources significantly influenced the hypoxia off the Changjiang River Estuary, and it was mostly affected by nutrients sourced from the Kuroshio. The nutrients input from the Changjiang River had larger impacts on the hypoxia in the north of 30°N than that in the south of 30°N. The nutrients sourced from the Taiwan Strait had a least influence on the hypoxia off the Changjiang River Estuary. 相似文献
9.
基于数值模拟的渤海海域地震海啸危险性定量化研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
根据地震海啸产生的条件,结合渤海海域的地形特征、地质构造、地震学特征和历史地震及海啸记录对渤海海域潜在的地震海啸进行了数值模拟研究。分析了渤海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域,讨论了渤海发生海啸灾害的可能性。文中通过数值模拟再现了渤海历史上几次规模较大的地震事件可能引发的海啸情景,研究分析了可能的地震海啸在渤海及周边海域的传播过程及波动特征.地震海啸传播模型采用基于四叉树原理的自适应网格加密技术,有效解决了局部分辨率与计算效率之间的矛盾。数值计算包括地震海啸产生及传播过程。利用该模型对渤海潜在的地震海啸进行了数值计算,基于数值计算结果定量阐述了渤海海域潜在地震海啸对渤海局部岸段及北黄海沿岸的影响,给出了渤海可能地震海啸危险性划分;研究结果将为我国海啸危险性分析和海啸预警技术研究工作提供技术支持。 相似文献
10.
基于ROMS模式利用集合最优插值同化沿轨海表面高度异常数据的研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
The ensemble optimal interpolation （EnOI） is applied to the regional ocean modeling system （ROMS） with the ability to assimilate the along-track sea level anomaly （TSLA）. This system is tested with an eddy-resolving system of the South China Sea （SCS）. Background errors are derived from a running seasonal ensemble to account for the seasonal variability within the SCS. A fifth-order localization function with a 250 km localization radius is chosen to reduce the negative effects of sampling errors. The data assimilation system is tested from January 2004 to December 2006. The results show that the root mean square deviation （RMSD） of the sea level anomaly decreased from 10.57 to 6.70 cm, which represents a 36.6% reduction of error. The data assimilation reduces error for temperature within the upper 800 m and for salinity within the upper 200 m, although error degrades slightly at deeper depths. Surface currents are in better agreement with trajectories of surface drifters after data assimilation. The variance of sea level improves significantly in terms of both the amplitude and position of the strong and weak variance regions after assimilating TSLA. Results with AGE error （AGE） perform better than no AGE error （NoAGE） when considering the improvements of the temperature and the salinity. Furthermore, reasons for the extremely strong variability in the northern SCS in high resolution models are investigated. The results demonstrate that the strong variability of sea level in the high resolution model is caused by an extremely strong Kuroshio intrusion. Therefore, it is demonstrated that it is necessary to assimilate the TSLA in order to better simulate the SCS with high resolution models. 相似文献