Geographical Information Systems and Geostatistics for Modelling Radioactively Contaminated Land Areas   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

NAZZARENO?DIODATOEmail author  MICHELE?CECCARELLI 《Natural Hazards》2005,35(2):229-242

The Chernobyl plume contaminated vast lands of Europe with radiocaesium (¹37Cs) in 1986 because of the deposition of radionuclides on the ground by wet and dry deposition processes. Nevertheless, in a nuclear emergency, contamination data may be very sparse and there is need to make rapid and scientifically supported decisions. Here we analyze the rainfall field, an important precursor of the wet deposition, during the passage of the plume. Thus, estimating rainfall spatial variability can help to identify possible contaminated areas and associated risks when rainfall exceeded a given threshold. In this paper, we show that the conditional probabilities of exceeding threshold rainfall values could be spatially assessed using the mutual benefits of linking geostatistical and geographical information system (GIS) to quantify the evaluation of the risk involved in decision making. In particular, the non-parametric geostatistic technique, termed Indicator Kriging (IK), enables one to efficiently estimate the probability that the true value exceeds the threshold values by means of the indicator coding transform. Afterward, GIS has been used to find the areas probably affected by wash-out (probability >0.5 that rainfall is above a certain threshold). The experimental study has been focused on a test site in Beneventan agroecosystem (Southern Italy) to model the spatial uncertainty over a continuous area from sparse rainfall data. This enabled to generate probability maps delineating area potentially affected by to contamination to be monitored after wet deposition of Chernobyl releases.  相似文献   

Volcanic and Scientific Activity at Kick ’em Jenny Submarine Volcano 2001–2002: Implications for Volcanic Hazard in the Southern Grenadines,Lesser Antilles     

Jan?M.?LindsayEmail author  John?B.?Shepherd  Doug?Wilson 《Natural Hazards》2005,34(1):1-24

Kick em Jenny submarine volcano, ~8 km north of Grenada, has erupted at least 12 times since it was first discovered in 1939, making it the most frequently active volcano in the Lesser Antilles arc. The volcano lies in shallow water close to significant population centres and directly beneath a major shipping route, and as a consequence an understanding of the eruptive behaviour and potential hazards at the volcano is critical. The most recent eruption at Kick em Jenny occurred on December 4 2001, and differed significantly from past eruptions in that it was preceded by an intensive volcanic earthquake swarm. In March 2002 a multi-beam bathymetric survey of the volcano and its surroundings was carried out by the NOAA ship Ronald H Brown. This survey provided detailed three-dimensional images of the volcano, revealing the detailed morphology of the summit area. The volcano is capped by a summit crater which is breached to the northeast and which varies in diameter from 300 to 370 m. The depth to the summit (highest point on the crater rim) is 185 m and the depth to the lowest point inside the crater is 264 m. No dome is present within the crater. The crater and summit region of Kick em Jenny are located at the top of an asymmetrical cone which is about 1300 m from top to bottom on its western side. It lies within what appear to be the remnants of a much larger arcuate collapse structure. An evaluation of the morphology, bathymetry and eruptive history of the volcano indicates that the threat of eruption-generated tsunamis is considerably lower than previously thought, mainly because the volcano is no longer thought to be growing towards the surface. Of more major and immediate concern are the direct hazards associated with the volcano, such as ballistic ejecta, water disturbances and lowered water density due to degassing.  相似文献   

δ34S isotope values of dissolved sulfate (SO4 2−) as a tracer for battery acid (H2SO4) contamination in groundwater     

Thomas Pichler 《Environmental Geology》2005,47(2):215-224

The application of sulfur isotope (³⁴S) values of sulfate in groundwater provided the information necessary to evaluate the source, transport and fate of battery acid and associated contaminants at the Gulf Coast Recycling (GCR) facility. The chemical and isotopic composition of groundwater beneath the (GCR) property, a battery recycling facility in east Tampa, Florida, varies more than expected for an area of comparable size. Sulfate (SO₄^2–) values, for example, range from 1.2 to 11,500 mg/L and oxygen and hydrogen isotopes do not attenuate towards the weighted annual mean. Those samples that are high in sulfate generally have a low pH, which immediately indicates battery acid (H₂SO₄) contamination as a potential source for the sulfate. The low pH and high reactivity of the sulfuric acid groundwater cause the formation of hydrogeological microenvironments due to preferential dissolution of carbonate minerals, which in turn causes enhanced recharge and groundwater flow in certain areas; thus, the extreme scatter in the data set. Because of the difficult hydrogeology it is not straightforward to delineate the point-sources of contamination and up to five potential scenarios have to be evaluated: (1) seawater intrusion, (2) upwelling of high-sulfate groundwater, (3) local dissolution of gypsum, (4) an up-gradient contaminant source to the northeast of the GCR property and (5) battery acid contamination.  相似文献   

An integrated linear/non-linear flow model for the conduit-fissure-pore media in the karst triple void aquifer system   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

J. M. Cheng  C. X. Chen 《Environmental Geology》2005,47(2):163-174

Most karstic aquifer media may be characterized as the triple-void media with highly-varied hydraulic properties, including matrix pore, fissure and conduit, in which liner flow may co-exist with non-linear flow. In this paper, an attempt is made to couple linear flow with non-linear flow in a single unified flow governing equations by introducing the concept of equivalent hydraulic conductivity (EHC) and deriving a general Darcys law for various flow. The expression of EHC in the karst conduit and fissure are also derived. The procedures of numerical implementation are demonstrated via an ideal model and a case study of karst aquifer system in the Beishan Ore Formation area, Guangxi Autonomous Region, China.  相似文献   

Photometric Study Of W Uma Type Binary In The Old Cluster Ngc 6791     

J.?Rukmini  P.?Vivekananda?RaoEmail author  K.?Sriram 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2005,299(2):109-116

Study of eclipsing binaries in an open cluster offer information regarding the age of the cluster in addition to the component stars. In this paper we present the analysis of a W UMa system discovered in the open cluster NGC 6791 using the Wilson–Devinney (W–D) method.  相似文献   

Orthopyroxene–sillimanite–sapphirine granulites from the Bamble granulite terrane, southern Norway     

J. KIHLE  K. BUCHER-NURMINEN 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》1992,10(5):671-693

Silica-deficient sapphirine-bearing rocks occur as an enclave within granulite facies Proterozoic gneisses and migmatites near Grimstad in the Bamble sector of south-east Norway (Hasleholmen locality). The rocks contain peraluminous sapphirine, orthopyroxene, gedrite, anthophyllite, sillimanite, sapphirine, corundum, cordierite, spinel, quartz and biotite in a variety of assemblages. Feldspar is absent.
Fe²⁺/(Fe²⁺+ Mg) in the analysed minerals varies in the order: spinel > gedrite ≥ anthophyllite ≥ biotite > sapphirine>orthopyroxene > cordierite.
Characteristic pseudomorph textures indicate coexistence of orthopyroxene and sillimanite during early stages of the reaction history. Assemblages containing orthopyroxene-sillimanite-sapphirine-cordierite-corundum developed during a high-pressure phase of metamorphism and are consistent with equilibration pressures of about 9 kbar at temperatures of 750–800°C. Decompression towards medium-pressure granulite facies generated various sapphirine-bearing assemblages. The diagnostic assemblage of this stage is sapphirine-cordierite. Sapphirine occurs in characteristic symplectite textures. The major mineralogical changes can be described by the discontinuous FMAS reaction: orthopyroxene + sillimanite → sapphirine + cordierite + corundum.
The disequilibrium textures found in the Hasleholmen rocks are characteristic for reactions which have been in progress but then ceased before they run to completion. Textures such as reaction rims, symplectites, partial replacement, corrosion and dissolution of earlier minerals are characteristic of granulite facies rocks. They indicate that, despite relatively high temperatures (700–800° C), equilibrium domains were small and chemical communication and transport was hampered as a result of dry or H₂O-poor conditions.  相似文献   

500hPa环流变化与山东春季降水异常   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

高留喜  安兴琴  刘秦玉  黎清才  高慧君 《气象科学》2004,24(4):440-447

应用SVD技术,诊断分析了北半球500hPa高度场与山东春季降水的关系。结果表明：山东春季降水与北半球500hPa高度场关系密切,山东春季降水与东亚上空500hPa高度场具有很好的同步联系。前期(冬季)日本东北部500hPa高度场是影响山东南部春季降水的关键区,具有预测意义。500hPa高度距平场东高西低型是造成山东春季降水的主要大气环流形势,西高东低型是造成山东少雨的主要大气环流形势。  相似文献   

Community preparedness for lava flows from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes,Kona, Hawai‘i     

Chris?E.?GreggEmail author  Bruce?F.?Houghton  Douglas?Paton  Donald?A.?Swanson  David?M.?Johnston 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2004,66(6):531-540

Lava flows from Mauna Loa and Huallai volcanoes are a major volcanic hazard that could impact the western portion of the island of Hawaii (e.g., Kona). The most recent eruptions of these two volcanoes to affect Kona occurred in a.d. 1950 and ca. 1800, respectively. In contrast, in eastern Hawaii, eruptions of neighboring Klauea volcano have occurred frequently since 1955, and therefore have been the focus for hazard mitigation. Official preparedness and response measures are therefore modeled on typical eruptions of Klauea.The combinations of short-lived precursory activity (e.g., volcanic tremor) at Mauna Loa, the potential for fast-moving lava flows, and the proximity of Kona communities to potential vents represent significant emergency management concerns in Kona. Less is known about past eruptions of Huallai, but similar concerns exist. Future lava flows present an increased threat to personal safety because of the short times that may be available for responding.Mitigation must address not only the specific characteristics of volcanic hazards in Kona, but also the manner in which the hazards relate to the communities likely to be affected. This paper describes the first steps in developing effective mitigation plans: measuring the current state of peoples knowledge of eruption parameters and the implications for their safety. We present results of a questionnaire survey administered to 462 high school students and adults in Kona. The rationale for this study was the long lapsed time since the last Kona eruption, and the high population growth and expansion of infrastructure over this time interval. Anticipated future growth in social and economic infrastructure in this area provides additional justification for this work.The residents of Kona have received little or no specific information about how to react to future volcanic eruptions or warnings, and short-term preparedness levels are low. Respondents appear uncertain about how to respond to threatening lava flows and overestimate the minimum time available to react, suggesting that personal risk levels are unnecessarily high. A successful volcanic warning plan in Kona must be tailored to meet the unique situation there.  相似文献   

Theory of Basin Scale Dynamics of a Stratified Rotating Fluid     

Leo R. M. Maas 《Surveys in Geophysics》2004,25(3-4):249-279

The dynamics of a stratified fluid contained in a rotating rectangular box is described in terms of the evolution of the lowest moments of its density and momentum fields. The first moment of the density field also gives the position of the fluids centre-of-mass. The resulting low-order model allows for fast assessment both of adopted parameterisations, as well as of particular values of parameters. In the ideal fluid limit (neglect of viscous and diffusive effects), in the absence of wind, the equations have a Hamiltonian structure that is integrable (non-integrable) in the absence (presence) of differential heating. In a non-rotating convective regime, dynamically rich behaviour and strong dependence on the single (lumped) parameter are established. For small values of this parameter, in a self-similar regime, further reduction to an explicit map is discussed in an Appendix. Introducing rotation in a nearly geostrophic regime leads through a Hopf bifurcation to a limit cycle, and under the influence of wind and salt to multiple equilibria and chaos, respectively.  相似文献   

Emplacement mechanisms of the South Kona slide complex,Hawaii Island: sampling and observations by remotely operated vehicle Kaiko     

Hisayoshi?YokoseEmail author  Peter?W.?Lipman 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2004,66(7):569-584

Emplacement of a giant submarine slide complex, offshore of South Kona, Hawaii Island, was investigated in 2001 by visual observation and in-situ sampling on the bench scarp and a megablock, during two dives utilizing the Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) Kaiko and its mother ship R/V Kairei. Topography of the bench scarp and megablocks were defined in 3-D perspective, using high-resolution digital bathymetric data acquired during the cruise. Compositions of 34 rock samples provide constraints on the landslide source regions and emplacement mechanisms. The bench scarp consists mainly of highly fractured, vesiculated, and oxidized aa lavas that slumped from the subaerial flank of ancestral Mauna Loa. The megablock contains three units: block facies, matrix facies, and draped sediment. The block facies contains hyaloclastite interbedded with massive lava, which slid from the shallow submarine flank of ancestral Mauna Loa, as indicated by glassy groundmass of the hyaloclastite, low oxidation state, and low sulfur content. The matrix facies, which directly overlies the block facies and is similar to a lahar deposit, is thought to have been deposited from the water column immediately after the South Kona slide event. The draped sediment is a thin high-density turbidite layer that may be a distal facies of the Alika-2 debris-avalanche deposit; its composition overlaps with rocks from subaerial Mauna Loa. The deposits generated by the South Kona slide vary from debris avalanche deposit to turbidite. Spatial distribution of the deposits is consistent with deposits related to large landslides adjacent to other Hawaiian volcanoes and the Canary Islands.  相似文献