AN OPERATIONAL STATISTICAL SCHEME FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED RAINFALL FORECAST     

李晴岚  兰红平  陈仲良  曹春燕  李程  王兴宝 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(2):101-110

A non-parametric method is used in this study to analyze and predict short-term rainfall due to tropical cyclones(TCs) in a coastal meteorological station. All 427 TCs during 1953-2011 which made landfall along the Southeast China coast with a distance less than 700 km to a certain meteorological station- Shenzhen are analyzed and grouped according to their landfalling direction, distance and intensity. The corresponding daily rainfall records at Shenzhen Meteorological Station(SMS) during TCs landfalling period(a couple of days before and after TC landfall) are collected. The maximum daily rainfall(R-24) and maximum 3-day accumulative rainfall(R-72) records at SMS for each TC category are analyzed by a non-parametric statistical method, percentile estimation. The results are plotted by statistical boxplots, expressing in probability of precipitation. The performance of the statistical boxplots is evaluated to forecast the short-term rainfall at SMS during the TC seasons in 2012 and 2013. Results show that the boxplot scheme can be used as a valuable reference to predict the short-term rainfall at SMS due to TCs landfalling along the Southeast China coast.  相似文献   

RBF神经网络在雷达定量估测降水中的应用研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

傅德胜  肖晨  谭畅  喻宝龙  许波 《气象科学》2015,35(2):199-203

利用重庆气象局CINRAD/SA气象雷达降水回波资料和相应地区的地面雨量站资料,基于径向基函数神经网络,建立雷达定量估测降水模型,将其用于地面降水估测。作为比较,同时以变分法得到的Z-R关系式估测所得降水。经二者对比试验结果表明:建立的雷达定量估测降水模型的估测精度和稳定性要明显优于Z-R关系式,能较好地反映降雨的真实情况。  相似文献   

CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION OF OLR OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT WITH ITS POSSIBLE LINKAGE TO SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CHINA     

靳振华  管兆勇 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(4):361-373

Using the 1979-2009 NCEP/NACR reanalysis data and precipitation records in East China, research is performed of the climatological features of low-frequency oscillation (LFO) in OLR over the Maritime Continent (MC) as well as their associations with precipitation disturbance in the eastern part of China. Results suggest that in the MC there is significant climatological low-frequency oscillation (CLFO) in outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), with the intraseasonal oscillation (30-60 days) being the strongest for April-September, and the MC acting as a high-value region of percentage contributions of low-frequency OLR variance. On the low-frequency time scale there occur four events of more intense active OLR during this time interval. In the January-April (May-August) phase, MC convection is relatively weak (vigorous). The CLFO makes pronounced eastward displacement at tropics, with phase propagation seen longitudinally, too. There occur low-frequency disturbance circulations similar to the EAP wavetrain or P-J teleconnection, starting from the MC via the South China Sea and the Philippines to the Yangtze valley of China. At different phases, the variation in the low-frequency circulations and heating fields shows that the rainfall disturbance in eastern China is likely to be under possible effects of the CLFO from the MC in April-September, and the low-frequency heating variation exhibits a meridional pattern as an EAP wavetrain or P-J teleconnection. As the OLR CLFO is in a peak (valley) phase the low-level divergence or convergence with the reversal at high levels over the MC is related to relatively feeble (robust) low frequency convection, thereby exciting an EAP or P-J wavetrain from the MC to the Sea of Japan. At the higher levels, the South-Asian high is eastward (westward) of normal due to effects of low-frequency cyclones (anticyclones), resulting in less (more) rainfall in the Jiangnan (areas in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze and to the south of the river) and Hetao (the Great Bend of Yellow River) areas, and increased (decreased) rainfall in SW China, Qinghai Plateau and Gansu. At the conversion phases, low-frequency convection becomes more active in parts of the MC, consequently exciting low-frequency wavetrain of cyclones-anticyclones-cyclones at low levels, making the South-Asian high southward of the mean, so that strong convergent zones emerge in the upper and middle Yangtze basins and Jilin of NE China, responsible for plentiful precipitation there in sharp contrast to the rainfall over the band between the Yellow and Huaihe Rivers and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. These results help understand in depth the climatological LFO characteristics and the phase-locked feature, thereby further improving our understanding of the causes of rainfall disturbances in different parts of the country.  相似文献   

同化雷达估算降水率对暴雨预报的影响   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

高郁东  万齐林  薛纪善  丁伟钰  李昊睿  张诚忠  黄燕燕 《应用气象学报》2015,26(1):45-56

选取2009年3月28日广东省广州市大暴雨过程,考察了变分校准前后Z-I关系估算雷达降水率的区别。变分校准后的降水率资料具有较高的单点精度与合理的梯度分布。降水率资料能够反映大气动力特征和水汽分布等重要信息,是模拟中小尺度系统的关键因子。基于GRAPES (Global/Regional Analysis and Prediction System) 区域三维变分系统,将FSU (Florida State University) 对流参数化方案作为观测算子的同化试验指出,同化降水率资料后同时增强了低层大气的辐合和高层大气的辐散,从而使整层气柱的不稳定能量增加。沙氏指数和K指数诊断分析也表明,同化降水率资料后有利于触发强对流天气。此外,低空辐合有利于水汽垂直输送,维持对流发展,改进降水模拟。逐小时数值模拟结果表明:同化校准后的雷达估算降水率不仅可以改进降水分布,而且使中尺度对流系统的发展和消亡清晰地表现出来。  相似文献   

Impact of the spatial resolution of climatic data and soil physical properties on regional corn yield predictions using the STICS crop model     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2015

The assimilation of Earth observation (EO) data into crop models has proven to be an efficient way to improve yield prediction at a regional scale by estimating key unknown crop management practices. However, the efficiency of prediction depends on the uncertainty associated with the data provided to crop models, particularly climatic data and soil physical properties. In this study, the performance of the STICS (Simulateur mulTIdisciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard) crop model for predicting corn yield after assimilation of leaf area index derived from EO data was evaluated under different scenarios. The scenarios were designed to examine the impact of using fine-resolution soil physical properties, as well as the impact of using climatic data from either one or four weather stations across the region of interest. The results indicate that when only one weather station was used, the average annual yield by producer was predicted well (absolute error <5%), but the spatial variability lacked accuracy (root mean square error = 1.3 t ha⁻¹). The model root mean square error for yield prediction was highly correlated with the distance between the weather stations and the fields, for distances smaller than 10 km, and reached 0.5 t ha⁻¹ for a 5-km distance when fine-resolution soil properties were used. When four weather stations were used, no significant improvement in model performance was observed. This was because of a marginal decrease (30%) in the average distance between fields and weather stations (from 10 to 7 km). However, the yield predictions were improved by approximately 15% with fine-resolution soil properties regardless of the number of weather stations used. The impact of the uncertainty associated with the EO-derived soil textures and the impact of alterations in rainfall distribution were also evaluated. A variation of about 10% in any of the soil physical textures resulted in a change in dry yield of 0.4 t ha⁻¹. Changes in rainfall distribution between two abundant rainfalls during the growing season led to a significant change in yield (0.5 t ha⁻¹ on average). Our results highlight the importance of using fine-resolution gridded daily precipitation data to capture spatial variations of rainfall as well as using fine-resolution soil properties instead of coarse-resolution soil properties from the Canadian soil dataset, especially for regions with high pedodiversity.  相似文献   

Investigating flash floods potential areas using ASCAT and TRMM satellites in the Western Cape Province,South Africa     

Tsitsi Bangira  Ben H.P. Maathuis  Timothy Dube  Tawanda W. Gara 《国际地球制图》2015,30(7):737-754

The aim of the study was to evaluate flash flood potential areas in the Western Cape Province of South Africa, by integrating remote sensing products of high rainfall intensity, antecedent soil moisture and topographic wetness index (TWI). Rainfall has high spatial and temporal variability, thus needs to be quantified at an area in real time from remote sensing techniques unlike from sparsely distributed, point gauge network measurements. Western Cape Province has high spatial variation in topography which results in major differences in received rainfall within areas not far from each other. Although high rainfall was considered as the major cause of flash flood, also other contributing factors such as topography and antecedent soil moisture were considered. Areas of high flash flood potential were found to be associated with high rainfall, antecedent precipitation and TWI. Although TRMM 3B42 was found to have better rainfall intensity accuracy, the product is not available in near real time but rather at a rolling archive of three months; therefore, Multi- sensor precipitation estimate rainfall estimates available in near real time are opted for flash flood events. Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) soil moisture observations were found to have a reasonable r value of 0.58 and relatively low MAE of 3.8 when validated with in situ soil moisture measurements. The results of this study underscore the importance of ASCAT and TRMM satellite datasets in mapping areas at risk of flooding.  相似文献   

降雨对大柏舍地电台地电阻率观测的影响     

吴鹤帅  罗娜  赵志远  张波  尹小兵 《地震地磁观测与研究》2021,42(3):173-179

选取大柏舍地电台2011—2019年地电阻率观测数据和降雨量资料,分析降雨对地电阻率观测的影响,利用影响系数理论,对结果进行分析探讨。结果表明,由于大柏舍地电台表层介质影响系数较小且为负值,小幅降雨对该台地电阻率短期影响不明显,仅自然电位差受到干扰;大范围强降雨时,地电阻率和自然电位差均受到影响;因ZD8B仪地电阻率观测系统架空线路漏电,导致EW向分量呈阶降变化,且比用于背景场观测的ZD8M仪变化幅度大。  相似文献   

三江源地区春夏季降水与太平洋海温的关系   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

刘青春  秦宁生  靳力亚  时兴合  冯蜀青 《气象科技》2007,35(3):335-339

从预测三江源地区春季、夏季降水趋势的需要出发,利用聚类分析法将三江源地区春、夏季降水场分为3个区域。通过对3个区春、夏季降水指数与前期太平洋海温相关普查,定义了与3个区春、夏季降水指数相关的海温分布型指数。冬季西太平洋海温偏低(偏高),赤道中、东部太平洋海温偏高(偏低)的海温分布型造成三江源1区、3区春季降水减少(增加);冬季赤道太平洋中部、加利福尼亚海域海温偏高(偏低)的海温分布型造成2区、3区夏季降水减少(增加)。对冬季太平洋海温分布型与后期春、夏季500 hPa北半球高度场的相关分析结果表明:当冬季西太平洋海温综合指数高(低)时,春季高度场印度高压、中西伯利亚槽及阿留申低槽加强(减弱),三江源地区春季降水偏少(偏多);而当冬季太平洋中部、加利福尼亚海域海温综合指数高(低)时,夏季高度场伊朗高压、中西伯利亚高脊加强(减弱)及西太平洋副高位置偏南(偏北),夏季降水偏少(偏多)。  相似文献   

用天气雷达回波强度资料估测降水   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李腹广  王芬 《气象科技》2007,35(2):286-288

利用2004年兴义多普勒雷达体扫复合仰角的强度回波资料及自动站雨量资料,在贵州省黔西南地区进行降水估测。综合考虑了地理环境、气候、距雷达中心距离等3个因素,对下属的8县1市进行降水估测,运用了不同仰角进行多次实验,最后运用最小二乘法得到该区域的Z-I(反射率因子-降水)关系,选取2005年1-7月的部分资料进行检验对比,并对降水误差从地理环境、雷达性能等多个方面进行分析。结果表明,用此方法得出的Z-I适用性较好,准确率较高,为降水估测提供了较可靠的判据。  相似文献   

华南暖区暴雨事件的筛选与分类研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

刘瑞鑫  孙建华  陈鲍发 《大气科学》2019,43(1):119-130

利用逐小时降水资料,采用客观方法对1982~2015年华南地区暖区暴雨进行了筛选和分类研究。主要结果如下:华南区域暖区暴雨事件共计177例,暖区暴雨占筛选的暴雨事件的16.86%,表明暖区暴雨是华南非常重要的降水过程。暖区暴雨主要出现在4~7月,6月份最多,平均持续11.58 h。暖区暴雨事件发生位置主要集中在广东、广西的沿海地区和粤北山区,有四个降雨中心。产生华南暖区暴雨的天气形势主要有四类,切变线型、低涡型、南风型和回流型,不同类型的暖区暴雨对华南地区的内陆和沿海的作用不同,且南风影响下的暖区暴雨发生频率较高,影响较大,是一类较为重要的暖区暴雨。  相似文献