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1.
Following previous studies of the rainfall forecast in Shenzhen owing to landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs), a nonparametric statistical scheme based on the classification of the landfalling TCs is applied to analyze and forecast the rainfall induced by landfalling TCs in the coastal area of Guangdong province, China. All the TCs landfalling with the distance less than 700 kilometers to the 8 coastal stations in Guangdong province during 1950—2013 are categorized according to their landfalling position and intensity. The daily rainfall records of all the 8 meteorological stations are obtained and analyzed. The maximum daily rainfall and the maximum 3 days' accumulated rainfall at the 8 coastal stations induced by each category of TCs during the TC landfall period(a couple of days before and after TC landfalling time) from 1950 to 2013 are computed by the percentile estimation and illustrated by boxplots. These boxplots can be used to estimate the rainfall induced by landfalling TC of the same category in the future. The statistical boxplot scheme is further coupled with the model outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) to predict the rainfall induced by landfalling TCs along the coastal area. The TCs landfalling in south China from 2014 to 2017 and the corresponding rainfall at the 8 stations area are used to evaluate the performance of these boxplots and coupled boxplots schemes. Results show that the statistical boxplots scheme and coupled boxplots scheme can perform better than ECMWF model in the operational rainfall forecast along the coastal area in south China. 相似文献
2.
登陆中国大陆、海南和台湾的热带气旋及其相互关系 总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8
首先,针对登陆中国热带气旋的登陆地点资料仅为地名的现状,利用1951-2004年西北太平洋热带气旋资料和登陆中国热带气旋资料,研究制定了登陆资料信息化方案.该方案包括海岸线近似、登陆位置计算、其他特征量计算和误差订正4个方面.对资料信息化结果的分析表明:信息化登陆资料效果是良好的.在此基础上,对登陆中国热带气旋的基本气候特征进行研究,重点分析了在大陆、海南和台湾登陆的3类热带气旋以及它们的相互关系.结果表明:登陆热带气旋频繁的地区为台湾东部沿海、福建至雷州半岛沿海和海南东部沿海;台湾东部沿海和浙江沿海部分地区是登陆热带气旋平均强度最大的地区,平均登陆强度达到台风级别,其中台湾南端的平均登陆强度为最强,达到强台风级别;5-11月为热带气旋登陆中国季节,集中期为7-9月,8月最多;登陆热带气旋的强度主要集中在热带低压-台风,尤其以强热带风暴和台风最多.对于全部大陆、海南和台湾三地,50多年来登陆热带气旋频数都存在不同程度的减少趋势,但只有登陆海南热带气旋的减少趋势是显著的;而所有登陆风暴(含以上强度)频数均无明显增多或减少趋势.总体而言,登陆大陆的TC最多、初旋最早、终旋最晚、登陆期最长;登陆海南的TC居中;而登陆台湾的TC最少、初旋最晚、终旋最早、登陆期最短.从登陆方式看,登陆一地的TC最多、登陆两地的TC次之,分别占总数的79.2%和20.6%,仅有1个TC登陆三地.在登陆两地的TC中,经台湾登陆大陆的TC频数最多、强度减弱最快,经海南登陆大陆的TC频数次之、强度减弱较慢,经大陆登陆海南的TC频数排行第3、强度减弱较快. 相似文献
3.
This study examines the long-term change in the threat of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs) in East Asia over the period 1975–2020 with a focus on rapidly intensifying(RI) TCs. The increase in the annual number of RI-TCs over the western North Pacific and the northwestward shift of their genesis location lead to an increasing trend in the annual number of landfalling RI-TCs along the coast of East Asia. The annual power dissipation index(PDI), a measure of the destructive potential of RI-TCs at landfall, also shows a significant increasing trend due to increases in the annual frequency and mean landfall intensity of landfalling RI-TCs. The increase in mean landfall intensity is related to a higher lifetime maximum intensity(LMI) and the LMI location of the landfalling RI-TCs being closer to the coast. The increase in the annual PDI of East Asia is mainly associated with landfalling TCs in the southern(the Philippines, South China, and Vietnam) and northern parts(Japan and the Korean Peninsula) of East Asia due to long-term changes in vertical wind shear and TC heat potential. The former leads to a northwestward shift of favorable environments for TC genesis and intensification, resulting in the northwestward shift in the genesis, RI, and LMI locations of RI-TCs. The latter provides more heat energy from the ocean for TC intensification, increasing its chances to undergo RI. 相似文献
4.
In order to provide an operational reference for tropical cyclone precipitation forecast,this study investigates the spatial distributions of precipitation associated with landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs) affecting China using Geostationary Meteorological Satellite 5(GMS5)-TBB dataset.All named TCs formed over the western North Pacific that made direct landfall over China during the period 2001-2009 are included in this study.Based on the GMS5-TBB data,this paper reveals that in general there are four types of distribution of precipitation related to landfalling TCs affecting China.(a) the South-West Type in which there is a precipitation maximum to the southwestern quadrant of TC;(b) the Symmetrical South Type in which the rainfall is more pronounced to the south side of TC in the inner core while there is a symmetrical rainfall distribution in the outer band region;(c) the South Type,in which the rainfall maxima is more pronounced to the south of TC;and(d) the North Type,in which the rainfall maxima is more pronounced to the north of TC.Analyses of the relationship between precipitation distributions and intensity of landfalling TCs show that for intensifying TCs,both the maximum and the coverage area of the precipitation in TCs increase with the increase of TC intensity over northern Jiangsu province and southern Taiwan Strait,while decreasing over Beibu Gulf and the sea area of Changjiang River estuary.For all TCs,the center of the torrential rain in TC shifts toward the TC center as the intensity of TC increases.This finding is consistent with many previous studies.The possible influences of storm motion and vertical wind shear on the observed precipitation asymmetries are also examined.Results show that the environmental vertical wind shear is an important factor contributing to the large downshear rainfall asymmetry,especially when a TC makes landfall on the south and east China coasts.These results are also consistent with previous observational and numerical studies. 相似文献
5.
Tropical cyclone potential hazard in Southeast China and its linkage with the East Asian westerly jet 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A new synthesized index for estimating the hazard of both accumulated strong winds and heavy rainfall from a tropical cyclone (TC) is presented and applied to represent TC potential hazard over Southeast China. Its relationship with the East Asian westerly jet in the upper troposphere is also investigated. The results show that the new TC potential hazard index (PHI) is good at reflecting individual TC hazard and has significantly higher correlation with economic losses. Seasonal variation of TC-PHI shows that the largest TC-PHI on average occurs in July-August, the months when most TCs make landfall over mainland China. The spatial distribution of PHI at site shows that high PHI associated with major landfall TCs occurs along the southeast coast of China. An East Asian westerly jet index (EAWJI), which represents the meridional migration of the westerly jet, is defined based on two regions where significant correlations exist between TC landfall frequency and zonal wind at 200 hPa. Further analyses show that an anomalous easterly steering flow occurred above the tracks of TCs, and favored TCs making landfall along the southeast coast of China, leading to an increase in the landfall TC when the EAWJ was located north of its average latitude. Meanwhile, anomalous easterly wind shear and positive anomaly in low-level relative vorticity along TCs landfall-track favored TC development. In addition, anomalous water vapor transport from westerly wind in the South China Sea resulted in more condensational heating and an enhanced monsoon trough, leading to the maintenance of TC intensity for a longer time. All of these environmental factors increase the TC potential hazard in Southeast China. Furthermore, the EAWJ may affect tropical circulation by exciting meridional propagation of transient eddies. During a low EAWJI phase in July-August, anomalous transient eddy vorticity flux at 200 hPa propagates southward over the exit region of the EAWJ, resulting in eddy vorticity flux convergence and the weakening in the zonal westerly flow to the south of the EAWJ exit region, producing a favorable upper-level circulation for a TC making landfall. 相似文献
6.
Interannual variability of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs) in China during 1960-2010 is investigated.By using the method of partial least squares regression(PLS-regression),canonical ENSO and ENSO Modoki are identified to be the factors that contribute to the interannual variability of landfalling TCs.El Ni o Modoki years are associated with a greater-than-average frequency of landfalling TCs in China,but reversed in canonical El Ni o years.Significant difference in genesis locations of landfalling TCs in China for the two kinds of El Ni o phases occurs dominantly in the northern tropical western North Pacific(WNP).The patterns of low-level circulation anomalies and outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) anomalies associated with landfalling TC genesis with different types of El Ni o phases are examined.During canonical El Ni o years,a broad zonal band of positive OLR anomalies dominates the tropical WNP,while the circulation anomalies exhibit a meridionally symmetrical dipole pattern with an anticyclonic anomaly in the subtropics and a cyclonic anomaly near the tropics.In El Ni o Modoki years,a vast region of negative OLR anomalies,roughly to the south of 25°N with a strong large-scale cyclonic anomaly over the tropical WNP,provides a more favorable condition for landfalling TC genesis compared to its counterpart during canonical El Ni o years.For more landfalling TCs formed in the northern tropical WNP in El Ni o Modoki years,there are more TCs making landfall on the northern coast of China in El Ni o Modoki years than in canonical El Ni o years.The number of landfalling TCs is slightly above normal in canonical La Ni a years.Enhanced convection is found in the South China Sea(SCS) and the west of the tropical WNP,which results in landfalling TCs forming more westward in canonical La Ni a years.During La Ni a Modoki years,the landfalling TC frequency are below normal,owing to an unfavorable condition for TC genesis persisting in a broad zonal band from 5°N to 25°N.Since the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) in La Ni a Modoki years is located in the westernmost region,TCs mainly make landfall on the south coast of China. 相似文献
7.
登陆福建的热带气旋对广东降水的影响 总被引：1，自引：21，他引：1
普查1970~2005年登陆福建省的热带气旋(TC)资料可知:(1)36年间平均每年有1.4个TC登陆福建省,其中以强热带风暴及以上级别为主;6~10月都有TC登陆福建省,7~9月尤其8月份是登陆的高峰期;登陆福建的TC具有明显的年际变化。(2)登陆福建省的TC主要集中于3种路径:偏北、偏西、西北型路径,其中偏北、偏西型路径以登陆闽中、闽南为主,而西北型路径有一半登陆闽中,登陆闽北以及闽南的几率相当。(3)偏西型路径的TC登陆后仍以偏西或西南的路径移动,一般有西南季风的配合,80%对广东有显著影响;西北型路径的TC登陆闽北时由于继续以西北或偏北路径移动且在广东上空没有强劲的西南季风的配合,则对广东基本无影响,登陆闽中南的TC登陆后移向偏西或西南,或者有强劲的西南季风的配合对广东造成显著影响的占47.8%,而减弱快同时没有西南季风配合的形势则对广东的影响不显著。 相似文献
8.
登陆热带气旋降水增幅的合成诊断分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用动态合成分析方法,对登陆后降水增幅类和非增幅类热带气旋的大尺度环流特征做了合成分析和动力诊断.结果表明:增幅类热带气旋处于强经向型环流之中,中高纬度为阻塞形势,高层有急流入口区南侧的强辐散,并与西风槽相互叠加;低层有急流和水汽通道的长时间联结;热带气旋东侧还有次级环流相伴.非增幅类热带气旋环流背景相对平直,高空辐散弱,无西风槽叠加;低空急流减弱迅速,且水汽通道较早出现断裂;无次级环流出现.增幅类热带气旋高层存在显著非地转运动,高层南风急流入口区的强次地转运动和降水增幅紧密相关. 相似文献
9.
登陆广东热带气旋的降水分布和移速变化 总被引：2，自引：4，他引：2
利用1980～2001年登陆广东的72个热带气旋的路径和降水资料,计算了热带气旋登陆前后的移动速度和加速度,比较分析了热带气旋主要降水落区与热带气旋移速变化的关系.计算结果统计表明登陆广东的热带气旋中,有66.1%的个例在登陆时移速加快.当主要降水落区位于热带气旋前进方向右侧时,热带气旋的12小时平均加速度为正的占了大部分(81.8%);当主要降水落区位于热带气旋前进方向左侧时,近八成(78.6%)的热带气旋平均加速度为负.这些统计结果进一步从诊断事实上说明了地形以及非绝热加热等因子对台风移动的可能影响. 相似文献
10.
Coastal urban areas are prone to serious disasters caused by landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs). Despite the crucial role of urban forcing in precipitation, how fine-scale urban features impact landfalling TC precipitation remains poorly understood. In this study, high-resolution ensemble simulations of Typhoon Rumbia(2018), which crossed the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, were conducted to analyze the potential urban impact on TC precipitation. Results show that the inner-core rainfal... 相似文献
11.
Using data of tropical cyclones making landfall in
China between May and October each year during the 1951-2015
period from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological
Administration (CMA-STI) Tropical Cyclone (TC) Best Track
Dataset, we developed a method of rapid classification of TC
tracks based on their average movement velocities and noted
three types of tracks: a westward type, a northwestward type,
and a northward type. We compared the climate characteristics of
the westward and northward types and discuss their corresponding
causes. The results show that the westward and northward types
account for more than 80% of all TCs making landfall in China.
Their climate characteristics, such as the frequency, landfall
intensity, duration over land, velocity over land, movement
distance over land, and other changes, show both similarities
and differences. Both TC types show significant increases in
their over-land durations, indicating that the effects of these
landfalling TCs are increasing. However, the causes of these two
TC types are similar and different in certain respects. The
changes in large-scale steering flows have significantly
affected the frequencies and over-land velocities of the
landfalling TCs of the westward and northward types. In
addition, differences between the changes in formation locations
of the westward and northward types may lead to significant
difference in their landfall intensities. 相似文献
12.
Interannual and Decadal Variability of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Southeast Coastal States of the United States 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The interannual variability of the Atlantic tropical cyclone(TC)frequency is well known.Separately,recent studies have also suggested that a much longer,multidecadal(40-60 year)trend might be emerging from the recent increase in Atlantic TC activity.However,the overall structure of the intrinsic frequencies(or temporal modes)of Atlantic TC activity is not yet known.The focus of this study is to systematically analyze the intrinsic frequencies of Atlantic TC activity using hurricane and tropical storm landfall data collected along the southeast coast(SEC)of the United States.Based on an Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) analysis of the frequency of landfall TCs along the SEC from 188701999,we have found that Atlantic TC activity has four primary,temporal modes.The interannual and multidecadal modes reported in the published literature are two such modes.After identifying all primary modes,the relative importance of each mode and its physical cause can be analyzed.For example,the most energetic mode is the interannual mode(2-7 year period).This mode is known to be associated with the 2-7 year El Nino/La Nino cycle.The average number of annual landfalling TCs along the SEC decreased by 24% during El Nino years,but did not show significant increase during weak and moderate La Nina years.However,intense La Nina years were generally associated with more than average landfalling TCs along the SEC.The effects of El Nino and La Nina also became more significant when only hurricanes were considered.The significance of the effects of El Nino and La Nina on landfalling TCs and hurricanes in different US southeast coastal states showed significant differences. 相似文献
13.
运用中尺度数值模式WRF耦合城市冠层模式（urban canopy model,UCM）,对2016年登陆深圳的热带气旋妮妲（1604）（以下简称妮妲）进行数值模拟。高分辨率数值模拟较好地再现了妮妲登陆前后的强度、路径和累积降水。利用城市化过程当中城市冠层对热带气旋降水的敏感性试验结果表明:城市冠层会减弱对流运动和水汽的输送,导致热带气旋登陆后珠江口城市群区域累积降水量略减少。应用最新的土地利用资料进行的城市下垫面敏感性试验结果表明:由于城市下垫面粗糙度增加,造成登陆地面风的减速,强度减弱,潜热通量与2 m高度比湿相应减小;城市下垫面粗糙度增加会加强该区域垂直对流运动以及不稳定能量增加,有利于降水增强,尤其在城市化下垫面处,热带气旋登陆后6 h累积降水增加量最大可超过20 mm。总体而言,对登陆热带气旋降水而言,耦合城市冠层使城市区域热带气旋降水减少,但在数值模拟中城市冠层影响作用不显著。城市化下垫面对登陆热带气旋暴雨的增幅作用明显,在登陆热带气旋降水预报中应重视。 相似文献
14.
Based on observed rainfall data, this study makes a composite analysis of rainfall asymmetry in tropical cyclones(TCs) after making landfall in Guangdong province(GD) during 1998—2015. There are 3.0 TCs per year on average making landfall in GD and west of GD(WGD) has the most landfall TCs. Most of TCs make landfall in June,July, August, and September at the intensities of TY, STS, and TS. On average, there is more rainfall in the southwest quadrant of TC in CGD(center of GD), WGD, and GD as a whole, and the maximum rainfall is located in the southwest near the TC center. The mean TC rainfall in the east of GD(EGD) leans to the eastern side of TC. The TC rainfall distributions in June, July, August, and September all lean to the southwest quadrant and the maximum rainfall is located in the southwest near the TC center. The same features are found in the mean rainfall of TD, TS, STS, TY,and STY. The maximum rainfall is mainly in the downshear of vertical wind shear. Vertical wind shear is probably the dominate factor that determines asymmetric rainfall distribution of TCs in GD. Storm motion has little connection with TC rainfall asymmetry in GD. 相似文献
15.
Ki-Seon Choi Chun-Chieh Wu Yuqing Wang 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2011,47(4):391-397
The effect of ENSO on landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Korean Peninsula is examined. It is found that although the landfalling frequency does not show any statistically significant difference among ENSO phases, the landfalling tracks are shifted northward in response to the decrease in Niño-3.4 index. In the neutral ENSO phase, many TCs pass through mainland China before landfalling over the Korean Peninsula due to the westward expansion of the western North Pacific subtropical high. Therefore, the landfalling TC intensity over the Korean Peninsula in the neutral phase is similar to that in the La Niña phase because more than half of those TCs made landfall over mainland China. However, it is found that the preceding winter ENSO phases are not related to the landfalling TC activity over the Korean Peninsula during summer. 相似文献
16.
A dataset entitled "A potential risk index dataset for landfalling tropical cyclones over the Chinese mainland" (PRITC dataset V1.0) is described in this paper, as are some basic statistical analyses. Estimating the severity of the impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall on the Chinese mainland based on observations from 1401 meteorological stations was proposed in a previous study, including an index combining TC-induced precipitation and wind (IPWT) and further information, such as the corresponding category level (CAT_IPWT), an index of TC-induced wind (IWT), and an index of TC-induced precipitation (IPT). The current version of the dataset includes TCs that made landfall from 1949–2018; the dataset will be extended each year. Long-term trend analyses demonstrate that the severity of the TC impacts on the Chinese mainland have increased, as embodied by the annual mean IPWT values, and increases in TC-induced precipitation are the main contributor to this increase. TC Winnie (1997) and TC Bilis (2006) were the two TCs with the highest IPWT and IPT values, respectively. The PRITC V1.0 dataset was developed based on the China Meteorological Administration's tropical cyclone database and can serve as a bridge between TC hazards and their social and economic impacts. 相似文献
17.
18.
The data of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in China and ENSO events and the NinoZ index during 1951 to 2005 were used to study the relationships between ENSO and landfalling TCs in China. ENSO events from July to September have obvious effects on landfalling TCs in China. When El Nio persists throughout the months, the frequency of landfalling TCs is less than normal, the season of landfalling TCs is shorter, the annually first landfall is later, the annually last landfall is earlier, and the mean int... 相似文献
19.
The Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model for landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) precipitation (DSAEF_LTP) utilises an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for the forecast track, while the precipitation forecast is obtained by finding analog cyclones, and making a precipitation forecast from an ensemble of the analogs. This study addresses TCs that occurred from 2004 to 2019 in Southeast China with 47 TCs as training samples and 18 TCs for independent forecast experiments. Experiments use four model versions. The control experiment DSAEF_LTP_1 includes three factors including TC track, landfall season, and TC intensity to determine analogs. Versions DSAEF_LTP_2, DSAEF_LTP_3, and DSAEF_LTP_4 respectively integrate improved similarity region, improved ensemble method, and improvements in both parameters. Results show that the DSAEF_LTP model with new values of similarity region and ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_4) performs best in the simulation experiment, while the DSAEF_LTP model with new values only of ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_3) performs best in the forecast experiment. The reason for the difference between simulation (training sample) and forecast (independent sample) may be that the proportion of TC with typical tracks (southeast to northwest movement or landfall over Southeast China) has changed significantly between samples. Forecast performance is compared with that of three global dynamical models (ECMWF, GRAPES, and GFS) and a regional dynamical model (SMS-WARMS). The DSAEF_LTP model performs better than the dynamical models and tends to produce more false alarms in accumulated forecast precipitation above 250 mm and 100 mm. Compared with TCs without heavy precipitation or typical tracks, TCs with these characteristics are better forecasted by the DSAEF_LTP model. 相似文献
20.
利用1985—2015年6—8月登陆中国东南部(福建和浙江)的35个西北行热带气旋(TC)和站点观测的日降水量,根据区域TC过程降水量,分为强降水、适量降水和弱降水TC,分析影响各级TC降水的环境场异常特征及其季节内振荡(ISO)的调制作用。(1)对流层低层850 hPa表现为中心位于福建东部强的气旋异常,来自孟加拉湾和南海强水汽输送在中国东南部产生强的水汽辐合促使TC强降水的发生,其中10~20天和30~60天ISO的环流和水汽输送都有贡献,但东南部的水汽辐合主要受10~20天ISO的影响;与TC强降水相比,TC弱降水对应的异常气旋和水汽辐合明显减弱。(2)影响TC强降水的10~20天ISO环流异常在TC登陆过程,自菲律宾群岛附近向西北方向传播至中国东南部,30~60天ISO环流异常自南海向东北偏北方向传播至台湾西南部,且环流异常强度不断加强。(3)影响TC弱降水的10~20天ISO环流异常自菲律宾西部向北传播,30~60天ISO环流异常自南海南部向东北方向传播。 相似文献