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Following previous studies of the rainfall forecast in Shenzhen owing to landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs), a nonparametric statistical scheme based on the classification of the landfalling TCs is applied to analyze and forecast the rainfall induced by landfalling TCs in the coastal area of Guangdong province, China. All the TCs landfalling with the distance less than 700 kilometers to the 8 coastal stations in Guangdong province during 1950—2013 are categorized according to their landfalling position and intensity. The daily rainfall records of all the 8 meteorological stations are obtained and analyzed. The maximum daily rainfall and the maximum 3 days' accumulated rainfall at the 8 coastal stations induced by each category of TCs during the TC landfall period(a couple of days before and after TC landfalling time) from 1950 to 2013 are computed by the percentile estimation and illustrated by boxplots. These boxplots can be used to estimate the rainfall induced by landfalling TC of the same category in the future. The statistical boxplot scheme is further coupled with the model outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) to predict the rainfall induced by landfalling TCs along the coastal area. The TCs landfalling in south China from 2014 to 2017 and the corresponding rainfall at the 8 stations area are used to evaluate the performance of these boxplots and coupled boxplots schemes. Results show that the statistical boxplots scheme and coupled boxplots scheme can perform better than ECMWF model in the operational rainfall forecast along the coastal area in south China. 相似文献
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在2020年COVID-19第一波疫情中,通过一系列非药物干预措施,国内许多城市实现了疫情的快速抑制。对这些交叉叠加的多项干预措施进行单项措施的效果评估,识别出关键的防控策略,能够为未来的疫情防控提供重要的经验与科学依据。本研究以深圳市为例,利用融合了多源时空轨迹大数据的空间显式智能体模型评估深圳市快速抑制第一波疫情的各项非药物干预措施效果,识别出核心措施与辅助措施。模拟结果显示,在深圳市第一波疫情中,单项干预措施有效性从高到低依次为居家令、综合隔离、佩戴口罩与分批复工。其中,居家令或综合隔离均能有效抑制疫情的大范围暴发,被本研究称之为核心措施;佩戴口罩或分批复工则只能从不同程度上降低总体感染规模并延缓疫情峰值,并不能抑制疫情暴发,被本研究称之为辅助措施。考虑到社会经济成本以及常态化防疫中人群依从性降低,本研究建议在COVID-19 散发疫情防控中将核心措施与辅助措施相结合,重点实施各项隔离措施,同时将外出佩戴口罩作为疫情常态化防控手段。此外,本研究展示了结合时空大数据与智能体模型精细化模拟城市内部传染病扩散过程的优势：不仅能在城市内部高精度推演疫情发展过程,而且能够支撑评估面向个体及各类型出行活动的非药物干预措施实施效果,为制定针对性、精细化的“时间-空间-人群”防控策略提供重要的科学依据。 相似文献
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机动车在感兴趣区域（例如景点或小区）之间的出行起始和结束（Origin-Destination,OD）信息反映了居民使用机动车出行的活动需求分布,是建立城市智能交通系统中交通需求分析与管理的基础信息之一。数量充足的监测设备能够收集的机动车出行信息更为精细,最终构建的OD信息可用性更强。然而在实际应用中,设备数量往往因为预算情况而存在限制。在设备数量有限的情况下,分析如何选择监测路段来实现OD信息可用性的最大化具有重要应用价值。考虑到感兴趣区域的空间精细程度直接影响监测设备的需求,首先采用层次聚类思想调整感兴趣区域的空间精细程度;然后,根据道路交叉口车流量守恒原则,探测冗余监测路段来进一步降低对监测设备的需求。本研究基于上述2步操作来实现给定数量设备监测能力的最大化。该算法以摄像头为例,在深圳市大鹏半岛区域进行了实验。结果显示,该算法能够支持在不同摄像头数量限制的情况下制定监测路段的选择方案,表明了算法的有效性。 相似文献
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