西北太平洋热带气旋活动的强度与频度分布规律初探   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

刘洪杰  田鸿飞  彭洪灿 《热带地理》1998,18(2):140-142

在结西北太平洋地区大量热带气旋观测资料的统计分析和数学似合分析的基础上,得出了热带气旋的强度一时间分布关系和频度一空间分布关系,并发现了两种分布关系具有相似的分布函数形式。  相似文献   

菲律宾海盆东北部晚始新世以来放射虫及其古海洋学意义     

李杰  徐钰林 《现代地质》1998,12(3):336-343,T002

研究了菲律宾海盆东北部“大洋钻探工程”１２５航次７８２Ａ孔晚始新世以来的放射虫化石。根据Ｓａｎｆｉｌｉｐｐｏ等１９８５年的分带,将研究区自下而上划分为１０个带。讨论了始新世与渐新世、渐新世与中新世、中中新世与晚中新世、中新世与上新世以及上新世与第四纪的界线。研究区存在两个沉积间断,分别位于晚渐新世与早中新世晚期之间和中中新世与晚中新世之间。研究区第四纪放射虫化石仍以暖水分子为主,冷水分子分布较浅。依据放射虫化石分异度曲线得出,晚第三纪以来本区存在５个相对暖水期和５个相对较凉期,渐新世时处于冷水期,这与钙质超微化石复合分异度和碳酸钙含量曲线的变化是一致的。晚渐新世与早中新世晚期之间的沉积间断是由于中新世南极冰盖扩展造成大洋底层洋流活动加剧而形成的。  相似文献   

声波测井在碎屑岩沉积压实研究中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

周文英  康志宏  虎北辰  魏历灵 《新疆地质》1998,(2)

通过对塔里木盆地北部阿克库勒地区 5口钻井泥质岩的声波时差及相应的孔隙度、古地层压力研究 ,求得本区的平均压实方程。认为本区 310 0～ 350 0 m属于正常压实层 ,其下属于欠压实层段。初步分析各时代流体的封闭时间和主要目的层欠压实异常类型。结合地震勘探资料 ,提出低速异常带中的更低异常区是找油领域之一。  相似文献   

EnKF Assimilation of Satellite-retrieved Cloud Water Path to Improve Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Forecast     

高小雨  林岩銮  岳健 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(3):201-217

Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall forecast has remained a challenge. To create initial conditions with high quality for simulation, the present study implemented a data assimilation scheme based on the EnKF method to ingest the satellite-retrieved cloud water path ( C w ) and tested it in WRF. The scheme uses the vertical integration of forecasted cloud water content to transform control variables to the observation space, and creates the correlations between C w and control variables in the flow-dependent background error covariance based on all the ensemble members, so that the observed cloud information can affect the background temperature and humidity. For two typhoons in 2018 (Yagi and Rumiba), assimilating C w significantly increases the simulated rainfalls and TC intensities. In terms of the average equitable threat score of daily moderate to heavy rainfall (5?120 mm), the improvements are over 130%, and the dry biases are cut by about 30%. Such improvements are traced down to the fact that C w assimilation increases the moisture content, especially that further away from the TC center, which provides more precipitable water for the rainfall,strengthens the TC and broadens the TC size via latent heat release and internal wind field adjustment.  相似文献   

On the Improvement of the DSAEF＿LTP Model to Heavy Precipitation Simulation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over China in 2018     

陈禹旭  贾莉  贾作  丁晨晨  任福民  李国平 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(3):232-245

In this study, the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model (DSAEF_LTP model) for landfalling tropical cyclone (LTC) precipitation was employed to simulate the precipitation of 10 LTCs that occurred Pover China in 2018. With adding parameter‘similarity region scheme’(SRS) values and introducing TC intensity into the generalized initial value (GIV), four groups of precipitation simulation experiments were designed to verify the forecasting ability of the improved model for more TC samples. Results show that the simulation ability of the DSAEF_LTP model can be optimized regardless of whether adding SRS values only, or introducing TC intensity into GIV, while the experiment with both the two improvements shows a more prominent advantage in simulating the heavier precipitation of LTCs. Compared with four NWP models (i.e., ECMWF, GFS, GRAPES and SMS-WARMS), the overall forecasting performance of the DSAEF_LTP model achieves a better result in simulating precipitation at the thresholds over 250 mm and performs slightly better than NWP models at the thresholds over 100 mm.  相似文献   

Impacts of Horizontal and Vertical Resolutions on the Microphysical Structure and Boundary Layer Fluxes of Typhoon Hato     

赵杨洁  李江南  李芳洲  阮子夕 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(1):10-23

We set four sets of simulation experiments to explore the impacts of horizontal resolution (HR) and vertical resolution (VR) on the microphysical structure and boundary layer fluxes of tropical cyclone (TC) Hato (2017). The study shows that higher HR tends to strengthen TC. Increasing VR in the upper layers tends to weaken TC, while increasing VR in the lower layers tends to strengthen TC. Simulated amounts of all hydrometeors were larger with higher HR. Increasing VR at the upper level enhanced the mixing ratios of cloud ice and cloud snow, while increasing VR at the lower level elevated the mixing ratios of graupel and rainwater. HR has greater impact on the distributions of hydrometeors. Higher HR has a more complete ring structure of the eyewall and more concentrated hydrometeors along the cloud wall. Increasing VR at the lower level has little impact on the distribution of TC hydrometeors, while increasing VR at the upper level enhances the cloud thickness of the eyewall area. Surface latent heat flux (SLHF) is influenced greatly by resolution. Higher HR leads to larger water vapor fluxes and larger latent heat, which would result in a stronger TC. A large amount of false latent heat was generated when HR was too high, leading to an extremely strong TC, VR has a smaller impact on SLHF than HR. But increasing VR at the upper-level reduces the SLHF and weakens TC, and elevating VR at the lower-level increases the SLHF and strengthens TC. The changes in surface water vapor flux and SLHF were practically identical and the simulation results were improved when HR and VR were more coordinated. The friction velocity was greater with higher VR. Enhancing VR at the lower level increased the friction velocity, while increasing VR at the upper level reduced it.  相似文献   

Re-examining Tropical Cyclone Fullness Using Aircraft Reconnaissance Data     

Zhehan CHEN  Qingqing LI 《大气科学进展》2021,38(9):1596-1607

We use FLIGHT+ aircraft reconnaissance data for tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific from 1997 to 2015 to re-examine TC fullness (TCF) characteristics at the flight level. The results show a strong positive correlation between the flight-level TCF and the intensity of TCs, with the flight-level TCF increasing much more rapidly than the near-surface TCF with increasing intensity of the TCs. The tangential wind in small-TCF hurricanes is statistically significantly stronger near the eye center than that in large-TCF hurricanes. Large-TCF hurricanes have a ring-like vorticity structure. No significant correlation is observed between the flight-level TCF and the comparative extent of the vorticity-skirt region occupied in the outer core skirt. The proportion of the rapid filamentation zone in the outer core skirt increases with increasing flight-level TCF. The differences in entropy between the radius of the maximum wind and the outer boundary of the outer core skirt also increase with increasing flight-level TCF.  相似文献   

Growing Threat of Rapidly-Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in East Asia     

Kin Sik LIU  Johnny C.L.CHAN 《大气科学进展》2022,39(2):222-234

This study examines the long-term change in the threat of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs) in East Asia over the period 1975–2020 with a focus on rapidly intensifying(RI) TCs. The increase in the annual number of RI-TCs over the western North Pacific and the northwestward shift of their genesis location lead to an increasing trend in the annual number of landfalling RI-TCs along the coast of East Asia. The annual power dissipation index(PDI), a measure of the destructive potential of RI-TCs at landfall, also shows a significant increasing trend due to increases in the annual frequency and mean landfall intensity of landfalling RI-TCs. The increase in mean landfall intensity is related to a higher lifetime maximum intensity(LMI) and the LMI location of the landfalling RI-TCs being closer to the coast. The increase in the annual PDI of East Asia is mainly associated with landfalling TCs in the southern(the Philippines, South China, and Vietnam) and northern parts(Japan and the Korean Peninsula) of East Asia due to long-term changes in vertical wind shear and TC heat potential. The former leads to a northwestward shift of favorable environments for TC genesis and intensification, resulting in the northwestward shift in the genesis, RI, and LMI locations of RI-TCs. The latter provides more heat energy from the ocean for TC intensification, increasing its chances to undergo RI.  相似文献   

Projection of the Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Affecting East Asia over the Western North Pacific Based on Multi-RegCM4 Simulations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jie WU  Xuejie GAO  Yingmo ZHU  Ying SHI  Filippo GIORGI 《大气科学进展》2022,39(2):284-303

Future changes in tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)under the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 are investigated based on a set of 21 st century climate change simulations over East Asia with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by five global models.The RegCM4 reproduces the major features of the observed TC activity over the region in the present-day period of 1986-2005,although with the underestimation of the number of TC genesis and intensity.A low number of TCs making landfall over China is also simulated.By the end of the 21st century(2079-98),the annual mean frequency of TC genesis and occurrence is projected to increase over the WNP by16%and 10%,respectively.The increase in frequency of TC occurrence is in good agreement among the simulations,with the largest increase over the ocean surrounding Taiwan Island and to the south of Japan.The TCs tend to be stronger in the future compared to the present-day period of 1986-2005,with a large increase in the frequency of strong TCs.In addition,more TCs landings are projected over most of the China coast,with an increase of~18%over the whole Chinese territory.  相似文献   

A Climatological Perspective on Extratropical Synoptic-Scale Transient Eddy Activity Response to Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones     

Yao HA  Zhong ZHONG  Haikun ZHAO  Yimin ZHU  Yao YAO  Yijia HU 《大气科学进展》2022,39(2):333-343

An observational study focusing on the contribution of tropical cyclones(TCs)that form over the western North Pacific(WNP)to the synoptic-scale transient eddy activity(STEA)over the North Pacific during the boreal autumn and early winter in the period 1979–2019 is presented in this paper.Statistical results show that WNP TCs entering the midlatitudinal North Pacific provide significant positive effects on the pentad mean strength of STEA,which is primarily concentrated over the Kuroshio/Oyashio Extensions(KOE)and regions from east of Japan to 160°W in the lower and midto-upper troposphere,respectively.TC intensity is highly indicative of the subsequent STEA with a correlation coefficient of 0.37/0.33/0.45 at 300 hPa/500 hPa/850 hPa exceeding the 99%confidence level for the period 1979–2019.The strength of STEA in the upper troposphere associated with TCs presents a more significant linear growth with TC intensity than that at the mid-to-lower levels after the cyclones enter the KOE region,suggesting that the impact of TCs on STEA gradually increases with height.Further analyses reveal that the contribution of TCs accounts for 4%–6%of the total STEA change over the KOE region during the late autumn and early winter.In addition,the influence of TCs on STEA experienced an interdecadal decrease from the early 2000 s through the early 2010 s.  相似文献